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BludgerTrack: 50.1-49.9 to Coalition

Despite some movement on the primary vote, a third week of post-Ruddstoration polling finds the parties remain at dead level on two-party preferred.

Three weeks after I hit reset on BludgerTrack (a fact now represented on the sidebar charts, in which the Gillard and Rudd epochs as separate series), the results remain sensitive to weekly variation as the overall pool of data is still very shallow (eleven polls in all). This week we have had Nielsen’s monthly result, the poll which appeared last week from newcomers AMR Research, and the usual weekly Essential and Morgan. The state relativities have been updated with last week’s result of federal voting intention in Queensland from ReachTEL, along with breakdowns from Nielsen and Morgan (the latter of which pleasingly looks to have become a regular feature).

What this all adds up to is a move this week from minor to major parties, one consequence of which is that the Greens have recorded what by some distance is their worst result since BludgerTrack opened for business in November. This may well portend a further decline born of the leadership change and the tightening focus on the major party contest, but I would want more evidence before I signed on to that with confidence. It’s certainly clear that the return of Rudd has been bad news for the combined non-major party vote, but the scale of it is a bit up in the air at the moment. So far as this week’s result is concerned, the shift has enabled Labor to both handily break through the 40% primary vote barrier while going backwards slightly on two-party preferred, on which the Coalition recovers the narrowest of leads.

Tellingly, despite two-party preferred being a mirror image of the 2010 election result, the seat projection still points to a continuation of Labor in office, albeit that it would rely on Andrew Wilkie (whom ReachTEL suggested to be on track for victory in its Denison poll last month) and Adam Bandt (who will continue to be designated as the member for Melbourne until polling evidence emerges to suggest he will lose, which will by no means surprise me if happens) to shore it up in parliament. This points to the crucial importance of Queensland, where there are no fewer than nine LNP seats on margins of less than 5%. So long as the swing in that state remains where BludgerTrack has it at present, Labor could well be in business.

However, as Kevin Bonham notes, there is an obstacle facing Labor on any pathway to victory that runs through Queensland: eight of the nine marginals will be subject to the effects of “sophomore surge”, in which members facing re-election for the first time enjoy a small fillip by virtue of acquiring the personal vote which is usually due to an incumbent. In seven of the nine cases this comes down to the LNP members having won their seats from Labor last time, although Leichhardt and Bonner are a little more complicated in that the members had held them at earlier times. The other two LNP marginals are the Townsville seat of Herbert, which stayed in the LNP fold in 2010 upon the retirement of the sitting member, and Fisher, which as Kevin Bonham notes is a “fake marginal” and an unlikely Labor gain.

The BludgerTrack model has sophomore surge effects covered, with adjustments of between 0.4% and 1.9% applied according to whether the seat is metropolitan or regional (the latter being more susceptible to candidate effects generally) or has what Bonham calls the “double sophomore” effect, in which the challenging party also loses the personal vote of its defeated member from the previous election. Other factors used in the model to project a seat’s result are the existing margin, the statewide swing as determined by the poll trend, and a weighting to account for an electorate’s tendency to swing historically. These results are then used to calculate a probability of the seat being won by Labor, and the sum of the various seats’ probability scores determines the statewide seat total shown on the sidebar. Sophomore surge effects are currently reducing Labor’s Queensland total by about 1.3 seats, which means they will be down one seat for about two-thirds of the time, and down two seats for the remainder.

Finally, sharp-eyed observers may note that the projection has Labor down a seat in New South Wales, by the narrowest of margins, despite a small swing in their favour on the two-party preferred. The loss of sitting members in three loseable seats (Dobell, Kingsford Smith and Barton) is playing a part here, but it also represents the fact that the model rates Labor as having been slightly lucky to have won a twenty-sixth seat there at the last election.

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2745 comments

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Fran Barlow
Guest

I just thought I’d let you know William that yesterday and today I tried looking at PB on my android. There’s no obvious way to find the latest threads including this one.

Gary
Guest

Bloody brilliant.

geoffrey
Guest

“Counting Fran, that makes at least three of us who are going to vote informal and put a little note on the ballot paper, wtte, neither Rudd nor Abbott is up to basic standards of honesty and integrity.”

integrity = denouncing strangers of lying in telecommunication media without any information ie lying about lying just for sake of bad mouthing and foul mouthing not even arguing. ah, the benchmark of honest and integrity, slagging on blogs

geoffrey
Guest

still wonder why rudd just doesn’t go softly softly until election … fbt is first budget stuff …

geoffrey
Guest

the fbt car thing is nothing more than rort. allows people to drive in luxury cars, racking up unlimited kilometres of priate use courtesy foregone taxes. really!

hope they hit negative gearing one day. one step at a time will do for that monster

shellbell
Guest

Thomson saying accept hypothetically I was responsible for these expenditures. Crown can’t prove want of authority.

Darn
Guest
[Evan Parsons Posted Friday, July 19, 2013 at 2:47 pm | Permalink The Liberal tactic is obviously to fill the media space with bluster and soundbites from Abbott, Hockey, Morrison. Now, what if the next Newspoll shows Labor ahead, by 51-49? The whole News Ltd/talkback radio shitstorm directed at Rudd will have been all for nothing.] I’m not making any predictions about what other polls might do, but in a week when the government seemed to be under considerable pressure the Reachtel poll moved in its favour – 52/48 Lib in late June, now 51-49 Lib, with the ALP pv… Read more »
Strong UnionsStrongCountry
Guest
Strong UnionsStrongCountry
Sean Tisme Posted Friday, July 19, 2013 at 2:57 pm | Permalink Guytaur, Last 2 days have been about Labors boatpeople disaster and the FBT scheme stuff up. Doesn’t look like Rudd is setting agenda anymore ————————————————— Abbott and his sycophant supporters have been ranting about boats for 6 years. When Labor went to the election in 2007 they had a policy. They were elected to Government, they had a mandate from the voters to implement the change. Then in 2008 the Liberals came out in support of the Labor changes. Since then all we’ve heard is bring back the… Read more »
adrian
Guest

‘Counting Fran, that makes at least three of us who are going to vote informal and put a little note on the ballot paper, wtte, neither Rudd nor Abbott is up to basic standards of honesty and integrity.

Maybe we could start an Informal Party?’

I always thought that Informal Parties were preferable to Formal Ones.

Sean Tisme
Guest

Labor finally deciding to properly ramping up the Pacific Solution.

Why didn’t Gillard do this when she introduced the Pacific Solution rather than sabotaging it by sending a handful and procesing 98% onshore?

And whats Labor position on offshore processing of women and children and if it’s onshore processing then will they take responsibility when the boats start coming packed full of kids?

Compact Crank
Guest

ratsak @2729 – that’s just a stupid thing to say. Sound policy isd always worth supporting – floating the AUD is an example – supported buy the Coalition and always given due credit.

zoidlord
Guest

Interesting there is no discussion on Economy.

Rational Leftist
Guest

[Doesn’t mean it will hurt politically (though it may)]

Basically what I said.

guytaur
Guest
Compact Crank
Guest

It could actually be illegal to encourage people not to vote, I think.

Or maybe it’s just the nutbags who get busted multiple times for not voting use it as a grandstand.

ratsak
Guest

Carey,

Labor could cure cancer and there would be an immediate, loud and sustained negative reaction from the usual suspects.

Doesn’t mean it will hurt politically (though it may). Labor just needed to be within striking distance at the start of the campaign which they are. FBT will be a 48hr wonder and forgotten come the election. Abbott won’t win if all he has to offer is NO.

bemused
Guest

Boerwar@2713

I’ve just discovered anothery – a friend of a friend who, after a lifetime of active political involvement is going to vote informal.

Counting Fran, that makes at least three of us who are going to vote informal and put a little note on the ballot paper, wtte, neither Rudd nor Abbott is up to basic standards of honesty and integrity.

Maybe we could start an Informal Party?

Can I have naming rights?
The Imbecile Party

spur212
Guest
Narrative schmartive. All I’ve heard in the media is a bunch of crazy conservatives getting all upset that their words and their lines that they’ve used for the last three years no longer work. Every day this week when Abbott’s given a media appearance, he’s sounded way off centre. As for the polls, I expect we’re not going to see any movement for a bit. The ALP’s got the base back and that primary vote ain’t heading below 38% any time soon. Newspoll will probably be bouncy as usual. Might even show the ALP ahead, but it doesn’t really matter… Read more »
guytaur
Guest

Sean

BTW do not forget reports of PMKR meeting Keating in the last week.

Makes you think. Or it should

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