Facebook Google Menu Linkedin lock Pinterest Search Twitter

Advertisement

Federal Election 2013

Jul 21, 2013

Seats of the week: Forde and Herbert

A double feature encompassing two of the LNP-held seats which Labor is eyeing greedily on the back of its Queensland poll resurgence.

Share

UPDATE (Morgan): The weekly Morgan poll is little changed on last time, with Labor down half a point to 41.5%, the Coalition steady on 41%, and the Greens up two points to 9%. There is actually a slight move in Labor’s favour on two-party preferred as measured using preference flows from the previous election, presumably because of rounding, their lead up from 51.5-48.5 to 52-48. On respondent-allocated preferences, the lead is steady at 52.5-47.5. Regrettably, the poll does not come with state breakdowns, which keen observers among us had started to think would be a regular feature (as it surely should be with such a large sample size). We will surely have Newspoll along later this evening, while the regular Essential Research is delayed this week and will be along tomorrow.

Two for the price of one this week as I scramble to catch up with the Queensland seats suddenly deemed in play under Kevin Rudd 2.0 …

Seat of the week #1: Forde

Straddling the southern edge of Brisbane, Forde was one of a number of Queensland seats which fell Labor’s way under Kevin Rudd’s leadership at the 2007 election, only to be lost again in the wake of his demise three years later. The electorate contains the eastern part of the municipality of Logan City around Beenleigh and extends southwards along the Pacific Motorway to accommodate, somewhat awkwardly, the rapidly growing suburb of Upper Coomera at the interior northern edge of the Gold Coast. The latter area was acquired in the redistribution which preceded the 2010 election, when Forde provided the new seat of Wright with about a third of its voters in rural territories extending to the New South Wales border.

Forde was created with the expansion of parliament in 1984, at which time it covered Brisbane’s outer south-west. Liberal candidate David Watson won the seat on its debut by 43 votes, but was unseated after a single term at the 1987 election by Labor’s Mary Crawford. Watson would later return to politics in the state parliament, eventually leading the Liberal Party into a disastrous result at the 2001 election. Crawford meanwhile built up a handy margin on the back of swings in 1990 and 1993, before a punishing redistribution pulled the seat into the rural Beaudesert region on the New South Wales border. Thwarted in a bid to be reassigned to an outer suburban seat, in part as a consequence of the party’s determination to accommodate Kevin Rudd in Griffith, Crawford was left with no buffer to defend herself against the savage swing that hit Labor across Queensland, which struck in Forde to the tune of 9.6%.

Forde was then held for the Liberals throughout the Howard years by Kay Elson, who retained comfortable margins in 1998 and 2001 before enjoying a further 5.9% boost in 2004. Elson’s retirement at the 2007 election was presumably a factor behind the spectacular 14.4% swing to Labor, making the seat one of three in Queensland where Labor was able to overhaul double-digit Coalition margins. It was then held for a term by Brett Raguse, a former teacher, local newspaper publisher and TAFE college director who had more recently worked as an adviser to state ministers associated with the AWU/Labor Forum sub-faction of the Right. The aforementioned redistribution improved Raguse’s margin from 2.9% to 3.4%, but this proved insufficient at the 2010 election in the face of what by Queensland standards was a fairly typical swing of 5.0%.

The seat has since been held for the LNP by Bert van Manen, a financial planner from Slacks Creek who had run as the Family First candidate for Rankin in 2007. Van Manen’s Labor opponent at the coming election is Des Hardman, a radiographer at Logan Hospital. Brett Raguse meanwhile re-emerged as a candidate for the preselection to succeed Craig Emerson in the neighbouring seat of Rankin, in which he was narrowly unsuccessful despite claiming support from Kevin Rudd.

Seat of the week #2: Herbert

The Townsville-based electorate of Herbert has been in conservative hands without interruption since 1996, although it has been highly marginal throughout that time. The seat has existed since federation, at which time it extended north to Cairns and south to Mackay. More recently it has covered central Townsville and a shifting aggregation of surrounding territory, the pre-2010 election redistribution having transferred the southern suburbs of Annandale and Wulguru to Dawson and added Deeragun and its northern coastal surrounds from Kennedy. The strongest booths for Labor are generally around the town centre, while those in the outer suburbs tend to be more volatile as well as more conservative, having moved strongly with the statewide tides toward Labor in 2007 and against it in 2004 and 2010. Lavarack Barracks makes the electorate highly sensitive to defence issues, with the sector accounting for about one in eight jobs in the electorate. Presumably as a consequence, the electorate is unusually youthful, the median age of 32 being four years lower than for any other seat in regional Queensland.

Herbert was a working class and Labor seat for much of its history, being in Labor hands until the 1960s and turning in a 34.2% vote for Communist Party candidate Frederick Paterson in 1943 (Paterson went on to win the state seat of Bowen the following year, the only such success for a Communist candidate in Australian history). A watershed moment came with the victory of Liberal candidate Robert Bonnett in the 1966 landslide, which was followed by further Liberal swings against the trend of the 1969 and 1972 elections. The seat came back on Labor’s radar after the 1980 election, when their candidate Ted Lindsay succeeded in reducing the Liberal margin to below 1%. Lindsay went one better when he ran again in 1983, gaining the seat with a 3.7% swing and retaining it throughout the Hawke-Keating years. Together with most of his Queensland Labor colleagues he was unseated at the 1996 election, when unrelated Liberal candidate Peter Lindsay won off a 9.0% swing. Ted Lindsay came within 160 votes of pulling off a comeback in 1998, before Peter Lindsay consolidated with swings of 1.5% in 2001 and 4.7% in 2004. He survived another close shave by 343 votes in 2007, a swing to Labor of 5.9% being slightly below a statewide 7.5% which cost the Coalition eight seats.

Lindsay bowed out at the 2010 election and was succeeded as candidate for the Liberal National Party by Ewen Jones, an auctioneer for local real estate agency Ferry Property. Jones’s Labor opponent was Tony Mooney, who served for nearly two decades as mayor of Townsville and earned a footnote in Australian political history when his failure to win the 1996 Mundingburra by-election for Labor led to the downfall of the Goss government. Perhaps reflecting the loss of Lindsay’s personal vote, Jones picked up what by Queensland standards was a modest swing of 2.2%, which was nonetheless enough to secure his hold on a seat which the redistribution had made, by the narrowest of margins, notionally Labor. Jones’s Labor opponent this time is Cathy O’Toole, a former chief executive of a disability employment service and member of the Left faction.

Advertisement

Advertisement

We recommend

From around the web

Powered by Taboola

2266 comments

Sort by:   newest | oldest | most voted
malcolm weatherup
Guest

Small things count for credibility – in Herbert, the suburbs are Wulguru and Annandale (although Annandala sounds nicer).

Dominic Byrne
Guest
Dear Kevin, You returning to guide the political party you once decimated, is like having Edward Scissor-Hands remold a soft, deformed unfixable piece of clay. The fact you are doing it for no reason but your own sociopathic, egotistical, revengeful personal gain is despicable. You were once deposed, because of Labors demise in the polls and fear of obliteration, are you seriously back in office to fix it? You stuffed up so many policies in your previous two-year tenancy, that the splintered factions facilitated your removal. Now we have some of those faceless colleagues, like Bill Shorten, removing a bloody… Read more »
bluepill
Guest
I don’t agree with Psephos much but #2261 is a sound argument and the main concern of the Intellgence Community in Australia. I would present a policy which: 1. Threw the book at anyone found piloting a boat full of people, any of whom are without identity documents. This criteria would establish ‘reasonable suspicion of intention to illegally immigrate’. 2. Those without ID would be declared as ineligible for residency and would reintroduce TPVs (or similar) to send them home after a period/not allow family reunion. 3. Residency granted via sponsorship to remote/regional centres (not capital cities) for 5 years… Read more »
Psephos
Guest

I like this one. 🙂

bemused
Guest

William announced a new thread for those who missed it.

Psephos
Guest

Personally I wouldn’t give refugee status to anyone who arrived on an Australian border without papers. They all have papers when they arrive in Indonesia, because even in Pakistan you can’t find an international airline which will board passengers with no ID at all. So if they arrive at our borders with no papers, they have destroyed them while in Indonesia. That to me is evidence of bad faith or deception, and should be grounds for rejection.

bluepill
Guest
There is a reasonable suspicion at present amongst Australian Intelligence that Australia’s relatively ‘soft’ borders may actually be a pull factor from he aforementioned nations among those intent on terrorist activity. The reason is simple: any action carried out would generate substantial coverage worldwide, Australia also has the densest urbanisation of any English-speaking country and already has extensive and relatively ‘old’ immigrant communities from middle eastern and Sri Lankan origin to establish necessary networks for activity. Terrorist risk is not ‘xenophobic’ it is not ‘sensationalist’. The fact that just over a year from 9/11 in the USA that hundreds of… Read more »
Compact Crank
Guest

The key issue with air travel is that to board a plane to Australia the Airlines check visas for entry are in place because the Airline is liable for the return flight.

Psephos
Guest

[All three of those explanations have nothing to do with there being too many asylum seekers in the world, and therefore we have to be cruel.]

I never said anything about that. You asked why we draw a distinction between boat and air arrivals, and I told you.

Psephos
Guest

Ok, so now we know that Rudd has not carried the nation by storm, although he has recovered a lot of ground, both in general and on border protection. To win the election he will have to win the campaign convincingly. The arguments for going early and for waiting seem now to be evenly balanced.

Utopia
Guest
[Psephos Posted Monday, July 22, 2013 at 10:47 pm | PERMALINK why do they only apply to boat arrivals? Two reasons. 1. Every person who enters Australia by air does so with papers, ie, with authorisation. We know who they are and where they’ve come from. If they apply for refugee status, we can make an accurate assessment of the merits of their claim. This is not the case with people who arrive by boat, because they have either no papers or unreliable UNHCR papers which can be easily bought in Pakistan. 2. People arriving by air have left their… Read more »
This little black duck
Guest
This little black duck

I can’t remember any blog doing “there, there!” to thin-skins; much less to those with no rhyme or reason for taking umbrage.

guytaur
Guest

Psephos

Sorry did typo on your name 🙁

gloryconsequence
Guest

Do I win a prize?

Pegasus
Guest

[We know who they are…]
Really?
[The immigration department’s internal audits show fraud rates touching 50% and reveal that it has struggled to properly identify people who were entering the country, the Australian Broadcasting Corporation (ABC) said today.

The ABC report, whose Freedom of Information request to the department took two years to be processed, published the results of its investigation today.

The report also alleged that passport and visa fraud was happening in large numbers.]
http://www.business-standard.com/article/international/aus-audit-reveals-large-scale-fraud-of-visa-system-113072200370_1.html

zoidlord
Guest

GhostWhoVotes ‏@GhostWhoVotes 5s

#Newspoll Dealing with asylum seekers: ALP 26 (+6) L/NP 33 (-14) #auspol

guytaur
Guest

Well I thoght the poll would be better than that.

Still we have been doing boats always was better for LNP

Utopia
Guest
[don Posted Monday, July 22, 2013 at 10:47 pm | PERMALINK Centre@2221 What’s the difference between arriving by boat or by plane? Are you completely stupid, or just pretending to be stupid? As Psephos has said again and again, try getting on a plane at a foreign airport en route to Australia without a passport. You will then understand the difference.] You can insult me to your hearts content, but it doesn’t address the question. If the concern is numbers, what relevance is the mode of arrival? How is possession of a passport relevant to the total number of people… Read more »
jaundiced view
Guest
Psephos [You cannot arrive at an Australian airport with no papers and seek refugee status.] Yes you can, if you destroy them en route, forged or otherwise. But that isn’t the point anyway. Displaced people can arrive at an Australian airport on a visa – real, forged, or destroyed en route – and then seek asylum. Displaced people can arrive in Australia by boat on a visa- real, forged non-existent, and then seek asylum. Same. Each group at the point of arrival is in exactly the same legal position. The nature of the documentation or lack of it makes no… Read more »
absolutetwaddle
Guest

guytaur

“Not exactly true. There is a reason Abbott has been running from it”

Q&A’s reach is a lot deeper if it features a LOTO or a PM, true.

But far and away the core audience of Q&A are political tragics and hipster twitterers. If Abbott bombed on the show I doubt it would be the PR disaster he obviously thinks it would be.

Centre
Guest

Told you, Coalition leads 😛

confessions
Guest

Damn! No closer to Abbott being replaced by Turnbull.

don
Guest

Centre, my apologies if you were being ironic.

swamprat
Guest

[These may be “anthropogenic”, and indirectly political, they will give rise to political refugees.]

Damn: I meant to say: These may be “anthropogenically” caused, and indirectly political, but they will give rise to environmental refugees.

sprocket_
Guest

ALP 48
LNP 52

Damned ipad

dave
Guest

Getting late for newspoll

Centre
Guest

don

*shakes head

don’t worry!

sprocket_
Guest

NewsPoll

LNP 52
ALP 38

gloryconsequence
Guest

52-48

bluepill
Guest
Folks this is old. Back when the ALP was dismantling the program which worked the line was trotted out about numbers by plane and boat when boat numbers were on the rise. The core issue is that anyone without passport/ID is very hard to determine the status of. Storylines which ‘work’ are learnt while passports are tossed. Australian intelligence agencies are right to be concerned. You come here by plane, we have a very good chance of knowing who you actually are and assessing risk because you boarded with a passport. Now, suspicions may be minimal, it could be the… Read more »
zoidlord
Guest

GhostWhoVotes ‏@GhostWhoVotes 24s

#Newspoll 2 Party Preferred: ALP 48 (-2) L/NP 52 (+2) #auspol

guytaur
Guest

“@GhostWhoVotes: #Newspoll 2 Party Preferred: ALP 48 (-2) L/NP 52 (+2) #auspol”

guytaur
Guest

Phesos

I thought the new policy applies to visas and does not mention boats.

Was I wrong?

swamprat
Guest

Kevin Bonham

[“Environmental refugees” sounds like a dubious concept. Famines and so on are typically political in cause.]

It is likely that some countries with low-lying land are already being directly impacted by sea level rise and/or increased sea surges.

These may be “anthropogenic”, and indirectly political, they will give rise to political refugees.

Psephos
Guest

Oops, three reasons 🙂

don
Guest

Centre@2221

What’s the difference between arriving by boat or by plane?

Are you completely stupid, or just pretending to be stupid?

As Psephos has said again and again, try getting on a plane at a foreign airport en route to Australia without a passport. You will then understand the difference.

Psephos
Guest
[why do they only apply to boat arrivals?] Two reasons. 1. Every person who enters Australia by air does so with papers, ie, with authorisation. We know who they are and where they’ve come from. If they apply for refugee status, we can make an accurate assessment of the merits of their claim. This is not the case with people who arrive by boat, because they have either no papers or unreliable UNHCR papers which can be easily bought in Pakistan. 2. People arriving by air have left their country legally, with a passport. Therefore, if they apply for refugee… Read more »
Rossmore
Guest

I rename Puff Adder, Cruella Deville, after that head nodding performance behind Abbott on Lateline

alias
Guest

Forget Aug 31 as an election date.

Plenty of people will be too preoccupied at that time given the release four days earlier, on Aug 27, of this:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GFdgwMhWcV4

guytaur
Guest

TLBD

Its what people who bully want. So I am pointing out I will not.

Instead when it gets to point I cannot cope I will complain to William.

This will not be running to momma as some bullies like to crow. Its taking appropriate action under the rules.

Easy for people to avoid. Don’t bully

Kevin Bonham
Guest

“Environmental refugees” sounds like a dubious concept. Famines and so on are typically political in cause.

swamprat
Guest

[James Harrison @JamesHarrisonAUIf this is about punishing people smugglers, then punish the smugglers – not the innocent people seeking a better life. #QandA]

So anyone “seeking a better life” has automatic right to entry anywhere? or Just Australia??

Damn, why cannot I have the same right?

This is the “issue” the Greens have reduced being “left-wing” too!!!

They are intellectually facile wankers.

Utopia
Guest

[People smugglers are not trafficking people directly on regular airline arrivals,etc.]

What has the presence or absence of people smugglers got to do with the numbers of asylum seekers?

If you are arguing that we need to be cruel because of the numbers of asylum seekers, what relevance is mode of arrival?

Centre
Guest

What’s the difference between arriving by boat or by plane?

This is the sort of stupidity from the Greens that everybody, both Labor and Libs are constantly pestered with!

Utopia
Guest
[Psephos Posted Monday, July 22, 2013 at 10:32 pm | PERMALINK You certainly can arrive in Australia by plane, and then seek asylum. More Australia asylum seekers have come by plane than boat in the last decade. I suggest you fly to a foreign country, post your passport home, then try to get on a plane home. See how far you get.] What has the presence or absence of a passport got to do with the numbers of asylum seekers around the world? I say again, and this question is really not that hard for the combined wisdom of this… Read more »
Boerwar
Guest

Good night all.

This little black duck
Guest
This little black duck

guytaur@2202

TLBD

Despite your attempt I will not be bullied into leaving

Why would you be leaving?

dave
Guest

[ If it is about numbers, what relevance is mode of arrival?]

Because, as you know, travel documents cannot be destroyed and identity erased as readily when air travel occurs.

Travellers without valid visas are returned at airline expense.

People smugglers are not trafficking people directly on regular airline arrivals,etc.

But you already know this.

wpDiscuz

Advertisement

Telling you what the others don't. FREE for 21 days.