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Victorian Politics

Jul 22, 2013

Newspoll: 51-49 to Coalition in Victoria

Newspoll finds Denis Napthine continuing to record strong personal ratings, but with Labor still at the Coalition's heels on two-party preferred.

Newspoll has published the second bi-monthly poll of Victorian state voting intention since Denis Napthine became Premier, and the results are broadly similar to the first: the Coalition steady on 43%, Labor down two to 35% and the Greens steady on 12%, with the Coalition moving to a 51-49 lead after pulling level in the previous poll (Baillieu’s final results were 53-47 and 55-45). The Coalition’s primary vote stasis obscures a two-point lift for the Liberals to 40% and a corresponding drop for the Nationals to 3%. Napthine continues to enjoy a strong personal approval rating, up three to 53%, but his disapproval is also up seven to 26% as the uncommitted jump off the fence. Daniel Andrews is down seven to 35% and up six to 34%, partly reversing an unusual result in the immediate aftermath of the Liberal leadership turmoil. Napthine’s lead as preferred premier has widened from 43-24 to 49-26, again reflecting a fall in the uncommitted as respondents become accustomed to the new Premier.

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13 comments

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Corio
Guest
I am bemused by Bluepill’s description of the the government’s fairly mild action, trying to ensure that people no longer claim a business tax deduction for car private travel, as a “fiasco”. It’s a long-overdue move to end an $800 million a year cost to the budget that also has very regressive consequences for sustainability and the environment. And of course Abbott has promised to oppose the measure, but without saying how he might cover the cost if he was in government Remember how the restaurant industry claimed that the world as we knew it was coming to an end… Read more »
Tom the first and best
Guest
Tom the first and best

11

All the signs are that they do not and they would have to engineer a vote of no confidence or legislative to be twice blocked in the government controlled Legislative Council, to allow an early election under the fixed term provisions of the constitution. An early election, unless held a year before the election is due, would also cut the next term of parliament because of the election date fixing provisions.

Ted Lazogas
Guest

10 Unless the government wants an early election.

Tom the first and best
Guest
Tom the first and best

4

The Coalition have an absolute majority in the Legislative Council until the Next election (when a decent “the Liberals neglect the north and west of Melbourne” campaign should cut their numbers enough to remove their majority, unless their vote goes enough up in other regions). The member for Frankston loosing confidence in the government for 60 days is the only hope for an early election.

Silky38
Guest

Newspoll: Coalition 52 Labor 42.

bluepill
Guest

I know everything I wrote in #5 was correct because apparently only the coalition lie and everything in it has been stated on public record by other ALP members.

So not a rant but a recount of proper bona fide honest to goodness ALP eyewitness accounts.. Always handy to have around. 🙂

bluepill
Guest

Psephos.

Not a rant. Knew you were. Don’t know how you can be.

The party is utter crap.

Psephos
Guest

Your rant is wasted on me, Pluebill. I’m an ALP member.

bluepill
Guest
Psephos. I wouldn’t worry too much. Rudd may be starting to come undone already. The Gillard camp was screaming that this would happen if by some chance he did win the leadership tilt. So it was perhaps only a matter of time. The car leasing fiasco and now the over-reach on asylum policy shows that you just can’t run a country running from fire to fire and papering over a ‘media solution’ like pulling a rabbit out of your hat. Rudd thinks well but doesn’t think through things well. Nothing really gets finished properly. I think Australia realises this. You… Read more »
Ted Lazogas
Guest

Corio I believe also if a bill is rejected by the LC twice that will trigger an election.

Corio
Guest

Thanks to the change in the constitution a few years ago, there’s no chance of Napthine going to an early election as a result of his magnificent poll boost, unless his government passes a no-confidence motion in itself, or maybe they could persuade Geoff Shaw to commit political hara-kiri. 🙂

Psephos
Guest

The worry for Victorian Labor is of course that Rudd will win the federal election. They were counting on the horrors of an Abbott government to drive the last 2% they need in their direction. Rudd is not very popular in Victoria, though if he wins that will probably change.

Utopia
Guest

“(Baillieu’s final results were 53-47 and 55-45).”

…in ALP favour of course!

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