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Four new poll results have been added for the BludgerTrack aggregate this week, with Newspoll handing Labor a relatively weak result and ReachTEL, Essential Research and Morgan recording little change. The force of Newspoll has pulled the two-party preferred total 0.4% in the direction of the Coalition, which nets it a handy three seats on the national projection. The high yield is testament to the sensitivity of Queensland, where Labor’s projected gain of six seats from last week has been halved by a 1.8% shift on the two-party vote. Some soft polling for Labor in Tasmania has also brought them down a peg in that state, but this is cancelled out by a gain in New South Wales, where the model continues to have them on the cusp of 25 and 26. The projected total still leaves us in hung parliament territory, but with the Coalition able to govern with help from Bob Katter.

Newspoll especially has been keenly scrutinised for the effect of Friday’s asylum seeker policy announcement, but this would seem a fraught endeavour at this stage. The asylum seeker issue played badly for the government throughout last week up until Kevin Rudd’s move to seize the initiative on Friday evening, news of which would have taken a while to filter through. Nonetheless, it’s interesting to note the latest polls are solidly better for the Greens than a particularly weak batch last week, and that Labor’s primary vote is down correspondingly. This of course will mostly come out in the wash on preferences, but a refugee backlash could nonetheless be of considerable consequence in the Senate.

Usually the six Senators returned by a state at a normal half-Senate election split evenly between the parties of the left and right, but Labor’s polling under Julia Gillard was bad enough to allow for the possibility of four right, two left results in as many as three states (or perhaps four, depending on what view you take of Nick Xenophon). Now it appears that Senate battles will proceed along more familiar lines, with Labor comfortably winning two seats and fighting it out with the lead Greens candidate for a third. Labor’s starting position in such contests is its surplus vote above 28.6%, which can generally be expected to leave them in about the 7% to 10% range where the Greens vote is fluctuating at present. So while Labor’s western Sydney MPs might have cause to cheer the Prime Minister’s new policy direction, its number three Senate candidates (including incumbents Ursula Stephens in New South Wales, Mark Furner in Queensland and Lin Thorp in Tasmania) will feel less pleased.

BludgerTrack arrives with some new toys this week, starting with a new set of graphs on the sidebar which plot the polling over the four weeks since the restoration. These look a bit threadbare at present, but they will have a story to tell soon enough. The Gillard era model remains preserved for posterity at the bottom. In between is another new feature, which projects the likelihood of seat outcomes under the present BludgerTrack results. This is done by simulating 100,000 election results from the ALP seat win probabilities I have been using to determine the seat projection totals and observing the frequency of each result. The chances of majority government are currently put at 42.8%, which increases to 50.4% if you take the view that Labor will win Melbourne from Adam Bandt. Labor’s chances of holding on with the support of whoever ends up representing Denison and Melbourne are put at 28.7%.

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3515 comments

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adrian
Guest

‘Gillard is essentially the Prime Minister that should never had been. Well not for some years later at least. Her tenure and the way she achieved put a knife through Labor’s heart, and it was only a heart transplant that was going to save its sorry arse.’

Right again. Only a fool or a rusted on coalition voter would prefer Abbott and his merry band of loonies to a Labor government. I suspect castle is both.

outside left
Guest

‘origin’

outside left
Guest

Love to quote 10cc [and you don’t won’t to know about their names origon] I don’t like cricket, I love it

Norwester
Guest

My nearest pin for the Tassie marginal seats poll is ALP Lyons 52 Bass 48 Braddon 47.

cud chewer
Guest

Just to repeat.
I hate cricket.

bemused
Guest

Goodnight all.

bemused
Guest
paaptsef
Guest

[ He was in that shot. ]
Not if the ball is pictured coming off the bat he wasn’t.

bemused
Guest
ShowsOn@3505 My eldest son couldn’t get cable or ADSL so went for 4G. Damn fast at present, much faster than my cable, but will slow with more users in his area. It also costs a lot more. Optus turned on 4G in my area 1 week ago, but the signal is so weak I can only get 4G when I am outside. As soon as I go inside it reverts to 3G or H+ (which is basically ’3.5G’). When I’m on 4G I can download at around 15 Mbps, compared to around 5 – 6 Mbps on H+ and 2… Read more »
ShowsOn
Guest
[My eldest son couldn’t get cable or ADSL so went for 4G. Damn fast at present, much faster than my cable, but will slow with more users in his area. It also costs a lot more.] Optus turned on 4G in my area 1 week ago, but the signal is so weak I can only get 4G when I am outside. As soon as I go inside it reverts to 3G or H+ (which is basically ‘3.5G’). When I’m on 4G I can download at around 15 Mbps, compared to around 5 – 6 Mbps on H+ and 2 –… Read more »
Fran Barlow
Guest

[Boof doesn’t do defensive push Fran]

He was in that shot.

Fran Barlow
Guest
paaptsef
Guest

Boof doesn’t do defensive push Fran

crikey whitey
Guest

Did not slip past me, Bemused.

Apart from Mike Carlton’s take on it.

Thank you, though.

Kevin Bonham
Guest

Report that ReachTEL were in the field for Tassie polling last night and that questions included voting intention and PPM.

bemused
Guest
This week’s Mike Carlton column. […. In a week of hullabaloo over Labor’s supposed Papua New Guinea solution, some important economic news slipped through almost unnoticed. Inflation is at record lows. The Bureau of Statistics reported that for the year to the end of June, the underlying inflation rate – the important figure – came in at just 2.2 per cent. This demolishes the fear campaign that Tony Abbott and the Tories have waged for so long. Abbott, you will remember, stumped the country to brand the carbon tax “a wrecking ball with unimaginable and devastating consequences for the economy”.… Read more »
lefty e
Guest

Thats why we have medicare, Fran 🙂

Fran Barlow
Guest

Lefty

[I expect youve spent a fair bit of time polishing yer bat mate, and another three years wont hurt you.]

Poor advice Lefty … he could go blind.

crikey whitey
Guest
Fran. My 2971 crikey whitey Posted Friday, July 26, 2013 at 5:37 pm | Permalink STOP THE BOATS,INDEED! FAT CHANCE! It took me about as long to locate and edit this reference for posting as it took Tony’s Clowns of Thorns to develop their Operation Sovereign Borders. This is a far more devastating and useful guide as to why neither parties current solutions could have a hope of working. Bookmark, read and weep. Migrant Smuggling in Asia A Thematic Review of Literature Printed: Bangkok, August 2012 Authorship: United Nations Offce on Drugs and Crime (UNODC) Copyright © 2012, UNODC e-ISBN:… Read more »
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