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Four new poll results have been added for the BludgerTrack aggregate this week, with Newspoll handing Labor a relatively weak result and ReachTEL, Essential Research and Morgan recording little change. The force of Newspoll has pulled the two-party preferred total 0.4% in the direction of the Coalition, which nets it a handy three seats on the national projection. The high yield is testament to the sensitivity of Queensland, where Labor’s projected gain of six seats from last week has been halved by a 1.8% shift on the two-party vote. Some soft polling for Labor in Tasmania has also brought them down a peg in that state, but this is cancelled out by a gain in New South Wales, where the model continues to have them on the cusp of 25 and 26. The projected total still leaves us in hung parliament territory, but with the Coalition able to govern with help from Bob Katter.

Newspoll especially has been keenly scrutinised for the effect of Friday’s asylum seeker policy announcement, but this would seem a fraught endeavour at this stage. The asylum seeker issue played badly for the government throughout last week up until Kevin Rudd’s move to seize the initiative on Friday evening, news of which would have taken a while to filter through. Nonetheless, it’s interesting to note the latest polls are solidly better for the Greens than a particularly weak batch last week, and that Labor’s primary vote is down correspondingly. This of course will mostly come out in the wash on preferences, but a refugee backlash could nonetheless be of considerable consequence in the Senate.

Usually the six Senators returned by a state at a normal half-Senate election split evenly between the parties of the left and right, but Labor’s polling under Julia Gillard was bad enough to allow for the possibility of four right, two left results in as many as three states (or perhaps four, depending on what view you take of Nick Xenophon). Now it appears that Senate battles will proceed along more familiar lines, with Labor comfortably winning two seats and fighting it out with the lead Greens candidate for a third. Labor’s starting position in such contests is its surplus vote above 28.6%, which can generally be expected to leave them in about the 7% to 10% range where the Greens vote is fluctuating at present. So while Labor’s western Sydney MPs might have cause to cheer the Prime Minister’s new policy direction, its number three Senate candidates (including incumbents Ursula Stephens in New South Wales, Mark Furner in Queensland and Lin Thorp in Tasmania) will feel less pleased.

BludgerTrack arrives with some new toys this week, starting with a new set of graphs on the sidebar which plot the polling over the four weeks since the restoration. These look a bit threadbare at present, but they will have a story to tell soon enough. The Gillard era model remains preserved for posterity at the bottom. In between is another new feature, which projects the likelihood of seat outcomes under the present BludgerTrack results. This is done by simulating 100,000 election results from the ALP seat win probabilities I have been using to determine the seat projection totals and observing the frequency of each result. The chances of majority government are currently put at 42.8%, which increases to 50.4% if you take the view that Labor will win Melbourne from Adam Bandt. Labor’s chances of holding on with the support of whoever ends up representing Denison and Melbourne are put at 28.7%.

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3515 comments

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adrian
Guest

‘Gillard is essentially the Prime Minister that should never had been. Well not for some years later at least. Her tenure and the way she achieved put a knife through Labor’s heart, and it was only a heart transplant that was going to save its sorry arse.’

Right again. Only a fool or a rusted on coalition voter would prefer Abbott and his merry band of loonies to a Labor government. I suspect castle is both.

outside left
Guest

‘origin’

outside left
Guest

Love to quote 10cc [and you don’t won’t to know about their names origon] I don’t like cricket, I love it

Norwester
Guest

My nearest pin for the Tassie marginal seats poll is ALP Lyons 52 Bass 48 Braddon 47.

cud chewer
Guest

Just to repeat.
I hate cricket.

bemused
Guest

Goodnight all.

bemused
Guest
paaptsef
Guest

[ He was in that shot. ]
Not if the ball is pictured coming off the bat he wasn’t.

bemused
Guest

ShowsOn@3505

My eldest son couldn’t get cable or ADSL so went for 4G. Damn fast at present, much faster than my cable, but will slow with more users in his area. It also costs a lot more.


Optus turned on 4G in my area 1 week ago, but the signal is so weak I can only get 4G when I am outside. As soon as I go inside it reverts to 3G or H+ (which is basically ’3.5G’). When I’m on 4G I can download at around 15 Mbps, compared to around 5 – 6 Mbps on H+ and 2 – 3 on 3G.

My son uses Telstra 4G. He bought an external antenna and gets an excellent signal.

Before he had the external antenna it wasn’t as good and seemed to drop back to 3G.

ShowsOn
Guest

[My eldest son couldn’t get cable or ADSL so went for 4G. Damn fast at present, much faster than my cable, but will slow with more users in his area. It also costs a lot more.]
Optus turned on 4G in my area 1 week ago, but the signal is so weak I can only get 4G when I am outside. As soon as I go inside it reverts to 3G or H+ (which is basically ‘3.5G’). When I’m on 4G I can download at around 15 Mbps, compared to around 5 – 6 Mbps on H+ and 2 – 3 on 3G.

Fran Barlow
Guest

[Boof doesn’t do defensive push Fran]

He was in that shot.

Fran Barlow
Guest
paaptsef
Guest

Boof doesn’t do defensive push Fran

crikey whitey
Guest

Did not slip past me, Bemused.

Apart from Mike Carlton’s take on it.

Thank you, though.

Kevin Bonham
Guest

Report that ReachTEL were in the field for Tassie polling last night and that questions included voting intention and PPM.

bemused
Guest

This week’s Mike Carlton column.
[….
In a week of hullabaloo over Labor’s supposed Papua New Guinea solution, some important economic news slipped through almost unnoticed.

Inflation is at record lows. The Bureau of Statistics reported that for the year to the end of June, the underlying inflation rate – the important figure – came in at just 2.2 per cent.

This demolishes the fear campaign that Tony Abbott and the Tories have waged for so long. Abbott, you will remember, stumped the country to brand the carbon tax “a wrecking ball with unimaginable and devastating consequences for the economy”. On and on he went, the horror mounting. Whyalla in South Australia would become “a ghost town, an economic wasteland”. More stupidly still, Barnaby Joyce blathered that Australian families would be paying $100 for the Sunday lamb roast. Prices for everything would go through the roof.

The inflation figures expose these lies. The carbon tax registered barely a blip. But this is par for the Coalition course. With Labor on the rebound, Abbott indulges in ever greater hyperbole and folly.

Outflanked on the refugee crisis, he and Julie Bishop and Scott Morrison have managed to offend both the Indonesians and the Papua New Guineans with a volley of diplomatic gaffes.

His latest conjuring trick, the grandly titled “Operation Sovereign Borders” would be run by a three-star military officer – a lieutenant-general or vice-admiral – who, he says, would report directly to Morrison as immigration minister.

The Tories have always thrilled to the military solution: the march to the sound of the guns, the bark of orders, the flash of gold braid. The flim flam goes on. Having demonised asylum seekers as illegal queue-jumpers for so long, Abbott and the frightful Morrison have switched to shedding crocodile tears for their deaths at sea. The hypocrisy is disgusting.
… ]

Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/comment/how-did-we-contain-our-excitement-20130726-2qpan.html#ixzz2aA4Lt0GA

lefty e
Guest

Thats why we have medicare, Fran 🙂

Fran Barlow
Guest

Lefty

[I expect youve spent a fair bit of time polishing yer bat mate, and another three years wont hurt you.]

Poor advice Lefty … he could go blind.

crikey whitey
Guest

Fran.

My 2971 crikey whitey Posted Friday, July 26, 2013 at 5:37 pm | Permalink

STOP THE BOATS,INDEED! FAT CHANCE!
It took me about as long to locate and edit this reference for posting as it took Tony’s Clowns of Thorns to develop their Operation Sovereign Borders. This is a far more devastating and useful guide as to why neither parties current solutions could have a hope of working.
Bookmark, read and weep.
Migrant Smuggling in Asia
A Thematic Review of Literature
Printed: Bangkok, August 2012
Authorship: United Nations Offce on Drugs and Crime (UNODC)
Copyright © 2012, UNODC
e-ISBN: 978-974-680-331-
A publication of the Coordination and Analysis Unit
of the Regional Centre for East Asia and the Pacific
Table of Contents
Acknowledgements.. 1
Abbreviations and acronyms.. 2
List of diagrams and tables.. 5
Executive summary.. 6
Policy recommendations for improving evidence-based knowledge.. 11
Country situation overview.. 12
Introducing the research methodology.. 24
Chapter One: Cross-country Findings by thematic issues.. 31
Introduction.. 31
How are migrant smuggling and trafficking in persons conceptualized in the literature?.. 32
What methodologies are being used in research on migrant smuggling and irregular migration?.. 34
What information is available about stocks and flows of irregular and smuggled migrants?.. 37
What are the major routes involved in irregular migration and migrant smuggling?.. 41
What is known about the profiles and motives of migrant smugglers?.. 41
What is known about the profile of irregular and smuggled migrants?.. 44
What is known about the nature or characteristics of relationships between migrant smugglers
and smuggled migrants?.. 45
What is known about the organization of migrant smugglers?.. 48
What is known about the modus operandi of smuggling?.. 50
What is known about migrant smuggling fees and their mobilization?.. 56
What is known about the human and social costs of migrant smuggling?.. 59
Factors that fuel irregular migration and migrant smuggling.. 62
Conclusion.. 63
Chapter Two: Afghanistan.. 69
Chapter Three: Cambodia.. 83
Chapter Four: China.. 93
Chapter Five: India.. 115
Chapter Six: Indonesia ..131
Chapter Seven: Lao People’s Democratic Republic.. 143
Chapter Eight: Malaysia.. 153
Chapter Nine: Maldives.. 163
Chapter Ten: Myanmar.. 167
Chapter Eleven: Pakistan.. 177
Chapter Twelve: Singapore.. 191
Chapter Thirteen: Sri Lanka.. 197
Chapter Fourteen: Thailand.. 203
Chapter Fifteen: Viet Nam.. 215
Annexes.. 223
Annex A: Complete list of databases, catalogues and websites searched.. 225
Annex B: Table of criteria to use for initial bibliographic searches.. 228
Annex C: Key words used in the annotated bibliography.. 229
http://www.unodc.org/documents/southeastasiaandpacific//Publications/2012/Thematic_Review_eBook_version_17_August_2012.pdf

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