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Federal Election 2013

Jul 27, 2013

Another double header in our ongoing scramble to cover potential Coalition-held seats of interest.

Dunkley (Liberal 1.1%)

Dunkley covers an area of bayside Melbourne about 40 kilometres from the city centre which has been effectively unchanged by the redistribution. It consists of two distinct electoral parts, with Labor-leaning Frankston and its northern coastal neighbour Seaford slightly outweighed by blue-ribbon Mount Eliza immediately to the south. The electorate further extends south to Liberal-leaning Mornington along the coast, and inland to marginal Langwarrin. The north-south electoral cleavage reflects a straightforward divide in incomes, the area being notably Anglo at both ends.

Dunkley was created with the enlargement of parliament in 1984 and won for Labor on its inauguration by Robert Chynoweth, who had cut short Peter Reith’s brief first stint in parliament by winning Flinders for Labor at the 1983 election. Chynoweth was re-elected with a small swing in 1987 and then gained a 3.9% boost with a redistribution that shifted the electorate further north, exchanging Mornington for Chelsea. However, even this was not sufficient to hold back a tide that costs Labor nine Victorian seats at the 1990 election, with Liberal candidate Frank Ford gaining the seat off a 6.8% swing. Chynoweth ran again in 1993 and emerged a surprise winner, securing a slender 0.6% margin after a 1.9% swing. Hope for another term was effectively dashed when a new redistribution effectively undid the last, leaving Chynoweth defending a negative margin at a losing election.

The seat has since been held for the Liberals by Bruce Billson, who by the 2004 election had built enough of a buffer to survive the reverse that has played out with 5.3% and 3.0% swings over successive elections. Billson rose to the outer ministry portfolio of veterans affairs in the last two years of the Howard government and then to the front bench in opposition, but he was demoted to the outer ministry by Malcolm Turnbull after backing other horses in leadership ballots. He would return in the small business portfolio when Tony Abbott became leader in December 2009, holding it and related portfolios ever since. His Labor opponent is Sonya Kilkenny, a commercial lawyer from Seaford.

Macquarie (Liberal 1.3%)

Located on the western fringes of Sydney, Macquarie combines the solidly Liberal-voting Hawkesbury River area around Richmond and Windsor and Labor-voting communities on the Great Western Highway through the Blue Mountains. The seat has existed in name since federation but has changed substantially voer its history, having originally been concentrated on Bathurst and Lithgow. Those areas came to be accommodated by Calare after the 1977 and 1984 redistributions, the latter effecting further change by transferring Penrith and St Marys to the new seat of Lindsay. Macquarie briefly resumed its former dimensions between 2007 and 2010, when Calare moved deep into the state’s interior to cover the abolition of Gwydir and Macquarie lost the Hawkesbury area to Greenway. This resulted in a brief interruption to a Liberal hold on the seat going back to 1996, which was resumed in 2010 when Louise Markus succeeding in transferring to the seat from unfavourably redistributed Greenway.

Macquarie’s most famous former member is Ben Chifley, who was born and raised in Bathurst and first elected to the seat in 1928. Chifley was voted out in the 1931 landslide, twice failing to recover the seat before finally breaking through in 1940. Labor thereafter held the seat without interruption until the dark days of 1975 and 1977, with Ross Free recovering the seat with Labor’s improved performance in 1980. Free jumped to the new seat of Lindsay when parliament was enlarged in 1984, which took in the strong Labor areas of Penrith and St Marys. The slender margin left to Labor in Macquarie was erased by a slight swing at the 1984 election, and the seat held for the Liberals for the next three terms by Alasdair Webster. Maggie Deahm won the seat for Labor in 1993 by 164 votes, a margin that was easily accounted for by a 6.5% swing to Liberal candidate Kerry Bartlett when the Keating government was dumped in 1996. Bartlett’s margin progressed from 4.1% at the 1998 election to 8.9% at the 2004 election, at which point the aforementioned redistribution pulled the rug from under his feet.

Macquarie now had a notional Labor margin of 0.5%, to which the locally familiar Bob Debus added another 6.6% as Kevin Rudd led Labor to office. The Hawkesbury area meanwhile came to be represented Louise Markus, a former Hillsong Church community worker who in 2004 won the seat of Greenway for the Liberals for the first time since it was created in 1984. The redistribution then inflated her margin in Greenway from 0.6% to 11.0%, of which 4.5% remained after the 2007 election. The effect of the 2010 redistribution was even more pronounced, producing a 10.2% shift to Labor in Greenway while all but eliminating Labor’s margin in Macquarie. Upon jumping ship for Macquarie, where her task was aided by Debus’s retirement, Markus picked up a relatively mild swing of 1.5% that was nonetheless sufficient to secure her a margin of 1.2%. Markus meanwhile was promoted to the outer shadow ministry portfolio of veterans affairs in September 2008, but dropped after the 2010 election.

Labor’s election for the second successive elections is Susan Templeman, principal of Templeman Consulting, who promotes herself as “one of the country’s leading media trainers and coaches”.

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644 comments

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Strong UnionsStrongCountry
Guest
Strong UnionsStrongCountry

Abbott supports people rorting taxes.

Fran Barlow
Guest

Lizzie:

[Fran, crikey whitey, OzPolT

I’d like to add my appreciation for many thoughtful posts and links from such as you.]

I’m glad you find them worthwhile. I enjoy setting them down.

guytaur
Guest

“@rhysam: Polling, the short version:
ALP are in the game. Big time. Cue various businesses laying sizable hedge bets. #auspol”

Strong UnionsStrongCountry
Guest
Strong UnionsStrongCountry

Steve777

Posted Saturday, July 27, 2013 at 8:34 pm | Permalink

AA @7:44pm – interesting post.
——————————————————–

One of the reasons put forward by the Liar Monk Abbott was that Malaysia was not a signatory of the UN Convention.

Yet Nauru, the country that Abbott was promoting and supported as an option for asylum seekers was not a signatory during the Pacific Solution period.

They did not sign the UN convention until June 2011.

Just another example of the Liberal lying and hypocricy

sohar
Guest

Labor primary 40, Libs 44 and still 50-50. The Green vote must be tiny.

Greensborough Growler
Guest
Greensborough Growler

Diogs,

The President’s role is more the spruiker and heart and soul of the Club. So Evans going would normally not be a huge deal. However, Essendon sacked Robson their CEO months ago. They now face the most difficult period of all with no one steering the ship.

Be ready for unrelenting whingeing from Windy Hill. It’s going to be a big one.

matt31
Guest

50-50 seems about where it is. Only Newspoll showed a slight move back to the Coalition, but we have now had three polls released since that have not shown any such move. Labor have a very genuine shot at pulling this off, but I still believe their best chance is to go soon.

Rational Leftist
Guest

I hope the election is delayed for as long as possible, just because it seems to give Sean the shits so much.

confessions
Guest

dave:

Correct re Hockey. Who believes these people anymore.

Sean Tisme
Guest

Dave,

50% is Peak Labor. They haven’t got over 50% for about 3 years now except for the occasional rogue morgan.

Labor can’t win on 50%, Rudd should end the madness and just announce the bloody election!

Centre
Guest

The Greens must be polling 7% tops 😆

Good poll, very accurate 😈

pithicus
Guest

50/50 fascinating? what a crock

dave
Guest

Sean Tisme@624


Ahhh funk, Rudd the Dudd won’t call an election at 50%

Damn!

Have you started to learn Maori yet ?

gloryconsequence
Guest

Gamechanger? Must be more to come. Maybe Turnbull figures

mari
Guest

PTMD
The 8pm gremlins ate my comments butwe are in agreement re the faces of TA etc after the election will be priceless add MODLIB(who will be claiming his boy MT would have won) and of course baby Sean spitting his dummy etc

Hope you are just about 100% now

Diogenes
Guest

GG

Hird knows he’s in an awful lot of trouble. I think he’s just waiting to be put out of his misery.

I notice Evans actually said he wanted to spend more time at his work which departs from the usual script.

Centre
Guest

Tisme

Relax!

Remember PK, I will do you slowly, u byo tay 😛

Utopia
Guest

How is a 50:50 Galaxy a gamechanger PVO?

Sean Tisme
Guest

Ahhh funk, Rudd the Dudd won’t call an election at 50%

Damn!

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