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Morgan: 52-48 to Labor, Essential: 51-49 to Coalition

The weekly Essential Research and Morgan results both detect a rise in support for the Greens, with Morgan finding Labor support coming off a little after successive strong results in previous weeks.

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The weekly Morgan multi-mode poll finds the Labor primary vote slipping three points to 38.5% and the Greens up 1.5% to 10.5%, with the Coalition up half a point to 41.5%. That translates to 52-48 to Labor on respondent-allocated preferences, down slightly from 52.5-47.5 last week. The change is sharper on the generally more useful two-party measure which distributes preferences according to the previous election result, with Labor’s lead down from 52-48 to 50.5-49.5.

Meanwhile, today’s Essential Research has the Coalition down a point for the second week in a row to 44%, with Labor steady on 39% and the Greens up two to 9%. After shifting a point in Labor’s favour on the basis of little change in the published primary votes last week, two-party preferred remains at 51-49 despite more substantial change this week, suggesting the result has moved from the cusp of 52-48 to the cusp of 50-50.

Essential also finds 61% approval for the government’s new asylum seekers policy against 28% disapproval, and concurs with Galaxy in having the two parties almost equal as best party to handle the issue. Labor is favoured by 25% (up eight on mid-June), Coalition by 26% (down 12) and the Greens by 6% (down one). Asylum seeker arrivals are rated the most important election issue by 7%, one of the most important by 28%, quite important by 35%, not very important by 16% and not at all important by 8%. The poll also has Malcolm Turnbull rated as best person to lead the Liberal Party by 37% against 17% for Tony Abbott and 10% for Joe Hockey, and also includes further questions on workplace productivity.

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Simon Baker
Guest

Rossmore – Indeed, and Abbott sees himself very much as a disciple of Thatcher, even more than John Howard did, which is why several UK Thatcherites like Daniel Hannan MEP are strong supporters of Abbott. Rudd is basically an Australian Blair and Turnbull an Ozzie David Cameron. Gillard was more of a Gordon Brown or Ed Miliband

Lev Lafayette
Guest

On-topic this is the state-by-state figures from Morgan plugged into Antony Green’s election calculator.

http://www.abc.net.au/news/federal-election-2013/calculator/?mode=regional&overall=0&nsw=1.7&vic=0.7&qld=2.1&wa=4.4&sa=0.8&tas=-4.1&act=0&nt=0&retiringmps=false

Interesting, eh?

Lev Lafayette
Guest
Given it’s revleft show-and-tell time, I may as well lay my cards on the table as well. Briefly a member of the Socialist Workers Party in the eighties during my interesting teenaged years. Was more a members of their youth group, Resistance, from around the ages 17-21 or so. Found their methods too authoritarian for my liking and their theory lacking. Expressed some interest in the Schachtman group Worker’s Liberty in the early 2000s. Too much of a cadre party for me. These days I have more of an involvement with the International Luxemburgist Tendency and on occasion have visited… Read more »
cud chewer
Guest

New Thread?

*sniff*

cud chewer
Guest

wow. over 4 hours without a comment. something in the water?

cud chewer
Guest

test

mari
Guest

BK
have a great time in Canberra are you seeing LBD and CTAR1? Do you think you will get out safely 😀

BK
Guest

Section 2 . . .

MUST SEE! Alan Moir has a very frustrated Popeye.
http://www.smh.com.au/photogallery/federal-politics/cartoons/alan-moir-20090907-fdxk.html
ANOTHER MUST SEE! David Rowe with Abbott’s and Morriscum’s tent city.
http://www.afr.com/p/national/cartoon_gallery_david_rowe_1g8WHy9urgOIQrWQ0IrkdO
A good one from David Pope.
http://www.smh.com.au/photogallery/federal-politics/cartoons/david-pope-20120214-1t3j0.html
Ron Tandberg on Abboott’s proposed use of the armed forces.
http://www.smh.com.au/photogallery/federal-politics/cartoons/ron-tandberg-20090910-fixc.html

BK is heading to Canberra today and reurning on Sunday. I plan to maintain the Dawn Patrol wile away.

BK
Guest
Good morning Dawn Patrollers. This trio will put the wind up Credlin and Co. The digital “spoof” guy will have plenty of material to work with! http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/federal-election-2013/rudd-flies-in-team-obama-20130730-2qxet.html The key questions on this tawdry issue is which party approached the other and for what purpose? http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/coalitions-tent-city-trip-funded-by-logistics-company-that-provides-tents-20130730-2qws3.html The Nauruan trip has urned to sh!t for Tone and Morriscum. Karma. http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/federal-election-2013/nauruan-mp-warns-against-tents-20130730-2qxhp.html So Mother Milne thinks the boats will stop if 10000 are allowed to fly in via Indonesia every year? These 10000 will have been assessed as genuine refugees one would assume, so what would those who don’t qualify do? http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/federal-election-2013/caring-greens-unveil-asylum-policy-to-increase-nations-refugee-intake-20130730-2qxf0.html Wow! The… Read more »
ruawake
Guest

Poor Tony faces the big guns of ridicule. Plenty to work with.

[While the move is likely to draw criticism from the opposition, it will send shockwaves through the Abbott camp, given the trio’s reputation for devastating campaigns built around a popular candidate using humour and ridicule.]

Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/rudd-flies-in-team-obama-20130730-2qxet.html#ixzz2aYnsAXgd

imacca
Guest

[http://www.theaustralian.com.au/news/breaking-news/aussie-scientists-create-prawn-super-food/story-fn3dxiwe-1226688423365]

Wow, 30-40% increase in growth rates???? Be interesting to see what that does to the aquaculture industry. CSIRO does some good work think I.

imacca
Guest

[The contents of Mod Lib’s genitalia have never been revealed in public.]

Ummmm…perhaps you meant to write:

“The NATURE of Mod Lib’s genitalia have never been revealed in public.”

For which we should duly thankful. 🙁

It…shall we say…reads better to those of of your fellow travelers here with delicate sensibilities. 🙂

Strong UnionsStrongCountry
Guest
Strong UnionsStrongCountry

The mistake was Toll providing a return ticket to Morriscum

Strong UnionsStrongCountry
Guest
Strong UnionsStrongCountry

Abbott has now admitted that “turn/tow the boats back” won’t work.

The massive increase in his Nauru Tent City is evidence of that.

His endorsement of the company that will benefit with a multi-million dollar contract to supply the tents to pay for Morriscum to travel overseas is disgraceful and proves that Liberal policy is based on which multi-national companies will support the Liberals.

Makes you wonder how much the “people smugglers” have contributed to the Liberals

Rational Leftist
Guest

Is Mod Lib a she?

The contents of Mod Lib’s genitalia have never been revealed in public.

Now now, one’s genitals does not determine definitely whether they are a “he” or a “she”

ShowsOn
Guest

[I’m an ex-Trot too. Socialist Alternative.]
Apparently hard core members of Socialist Alternative donate 20 – 30% of their incomes to the party!

lefty e
Guest

Night, ya Splitters!!

Fran Barlow
Guest

Even us ex-Trotskyists need to get enough sleep to function at work later this morning. … Sleep well all …

lefty e
Guest
Agreed, Rossmore. Yep, that sounds like Trots, Bemused. In those days there would have still USSR-line types in the CP for them to oppose (and fair enough I guess). Ill give them this: when we were all getting the crap beaten out of us by Bjelke’s police in QLD in the 80s, they werent exactly back line types. Aside from that – I dunno, Trot groups seem to have an over-representation of people who swing wildly from one thing to another, every few years, with some exceptions, ending up in banking, or religion, or totally apolitical. By contrast, the independent… Read more »
bemused
Guest

Rossmore@1809

Night all, Troskyites, , Spartacists, Maoists, Greens, ALP members and all.

Goodnight Rossmore.

Ralph Miliband, father of Ed and David wrote some good books which I read and drew upon for ideas.

Now I am going too. ‘night all.

Rossmore
Guest

Night all, Troskyites, , Spartacists, Maoists, Greens, ALP members and all.

bemused
Guest

lefty e@1805

Forever ashamed.:/


Dont be. I was in the DSP for 3 months in the late 80s.

Hey, they had really great parties.

The only ‘communist’ movement that ever interested me at all, and then only academically, was the ‘Eurocommunist’ parties of Italy and Spain.

But they had eschewed revolutionary politics and embraced electoral politics. They were like a left wing Democratic Socialist party.

The ideas of Gramsci were interesting and still have relevance. One of the foremost experts on him lectured at Monash Uni while I was there. Alistair Davidson.

Rossmore
Guest

Lefty e … Yes and no… All my early voting life I and many of my mates lived under a Thatcher gov… The Blair gov, like the Rudd gov seemed like a light on the hill after all that crap. The reality was different but better a Labor or Labour gov than the silver tailed alternative

bemused
Guest

absolutetwaddle@1801

I’m an ex-Trot too. Socialist Alternative.

Forever ashamed.:/

I have done other dumb things in my life but my politics have remained remarkably stable mainstream ALP. Boring I suppose.

lefty e
Guest

[Forever ashamed.:/]

Dont be. I was in the DSP for 3 months in the late 80s.

Hey, they had really great parties. 🙂

bemused
Guest

lefty e@1799

The entrist Trot deal is even bigger in the UK Labour Party, I believe

Ahhh the Trots provided endless amusement.

There was a movie “The Assassination of Trotsky” that upset them over some minor ideological point so they protested outside where it was screening. Just to annoy them my YLA branch organised a widely publicised Theatre Party to attend that movie. 😀 Had them seething.

lefty e
Guest

I was trying to do strikethrough on the ‘pointless’, but HTML is not my friend. 😛

If you’re going to not vote, at least look up Albert Langer and do it properly: have yours counted for a minor outfit. Still legal in the Senate I believe.

Fran Barlow
Guest
Bemused [“Entrism” is a long-standing Trotskyist strategy] Yes and no. Entrism sui generis (i.e. longterm entry with the idea of manipulating the host for the ends of the party) was really a Pabloite strategy, which orthodox Trotskyists despised, precisely because it spat on the notion advanced by Lenin and continued by Trotsky that the revolutionary party was the key weapon needed by the class to achieve state power on a world scale. The implications were liquidationist, since if some other larger party could serve as well, why have the smaller party? This is why, Psephos’s assertion notwithstanding, I’d say that… Read more »
absolutetwaddle
Guest

I’m an ex-Trot too. Socialist Alternative.

Forever ashamed.:/

bemused
Guest

lefty e@1795


Have ex-Spartacists rebadged as The Greens


Nah, ex-Sparts are more likely to become radical non-voters. Or something equally pointless principled.

Oh… Borewar must be one of them. 😛

lefty e
Guest

The entrist Trot deal is even bigger in the UK Labour Party, I believe

Rossmore
Guest

Fran, 1791, fair enough and thanks for your honesty. I left the far left in 82, convinced that a mainstream social democratic party with left leaning credentials offered the best political prospects. Still hold that view….

absolutetwaddle
Guest

Speaking of entrism the Militant Tendency experiment in the British Labour Party was truly fascinating. There are a few docos on the subject on YouTube.

bemused
Guest

absolutetwaddle@1794

Fairly sure the Sparts don’t practise entrism. Really not their MO.

SWL/SYA certainly did.
They came close to taking over the Victorian Young Labor Association in the early 70s.

lefty e
Guest

Agree Bemused. One show at a time. But most of the entrists are happy to abide that principle.

[Have ex-Spartacists rebadged as The Greens]

Nah, ex-Sparts are more likely to become radical non-voters. Or something equally pointless principled.

absolutetwaddle
Guest

Fairly sure the Sparts don’t practise entrism. Really not their MO.

itsthevibe
Guest

For the record, the Joe Hockey comparisons earlier today were not appreciated.

bemused
Guest

Rossmore@1789

Fran B 1783 Have ex-Spartacists rebadged as The Greens?

More the Greens have acted as a magnet for all sorts of cranks and ratbags. 😛

I shouldn’t complain. In the past the ALP got burdened with many such people. Now they go to the Greens. 😆

Fran Barlow
Guest

Well technically, in my case, yes, but the hiatus between my break of organisational contact with the SL and my membership of the Greens was at least 16 years, so ‘rebadged’ is not the right term.

I’m alos yet to meet another ex-member in The Greens.

bemused
Guest

lefty e@1784

Made the ISO look like reasonable-minded Fabians.

Oh, and Rossmore: I can guarantee you there are far more Trots in the ALP than the GRNs. Thats a fact. They’re called “entrists”, there’s a small movement of them, has been for donkeys.

“Entrism” is a long-standing Trotskyist strategy.

People can join the ALP with all sorts of weird ideas, but if they are also a member of an organisation that runs candidates in elections they should resign or be expelled.

Rossmore
Guest

Fran B 1783 Have ex-Spartacists rebadged as The Greens?

ShowsOn
Guest
[Do try to remember that Labor supported almost everything Howard did in relation to the Tampa, and rightly so. Whatever one might think about boat arrivals, to have rewarded hijacking by letting the Tampa hijackers land would have set a very bad precedent. It was bad enough that Howard eventually let most of them come to Australia.] I’m more than happy to have a discussion about the Tampa fiasco with Mod Lib. But isn’t it telling that she goes out of her way to not criticise any Liberal actions on the issue? Why wasn’t she attacking the Nauru tent ‘solution’… Read more »
bemused
Guest
Rossmore
Guest

Imacca 1779 … I was waiting for that Life of Brian link… 🙂

absolutetwaddle
Guest

Fran

Understood. I’ve only had contact with members of the SL at a few protests in my years at university (I’m 28). Back in the day I’m sure they were somewhat less psychotic.

lefty e
Guest

Made the ISO look like reasonable-minded Fabians.

Oh, and Rossmore: I can guarantee you there are far more Trots in the ALP than the GRNs. Thats a fact. They’re called “entrists”, there’s a small movement of them, has been for donkeys.

Fran Barlow
Guest

Rossmore:

[Have the Sparts rebadged as The Greens?]

Certainly not. That would be anathema to them, for reasons I explained earlier.

Strong UnionsStrongCountry
Guest
Strong UnionsStrongCountry

haven’t even once read you criticise what Howard did over the Tampa affair!

and yet no criticism of the Liberals agreeing to dismantle the Pacific Solution

Psephos
Guest
[what is it with Maoists and later life swings to the right – weren’t windshuttle and the late christopher pearson old maoists?] Windshuttle was, I don’t know about Pearson. Maoism was a very unsophisticated form of leftism. Trots had read piles of boring theory, whereas we only had to memorise the Little Red Book. Maoism was essentially about action. You could join the Maoists one day and be smashing windows the next. In the atmosphere of 1971 at the height of the Vietnam War, being a Maoist was all fun and no boring stuff. But of course it wore off… Read more »
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