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Morgan: 52-48 to Labor, Essential: 51-49 to Coalition

The weekly Essential Research and Morgan results both detect a rise in support for the Greens, with Morgan finding Labor support coming off a little after successive strong results in previous weeks.

The weekly Morgan multi-mode poll finds the Labor primary vote slipping three points to 38.5% and the Greens up 1.5% to 10.5%, with the Coalition up half a point to 41.5%. That translates to 52-48 to Labor on respondent-allocated preferences, down slightly from 52.5-47.5 last week. The change is sharper on the generally more useful two-party measure which distributes preferences according to the previous election result, with Labor’s lead down from 52-48 to 50.5-49.5.

Meanwhile, today’s Essential Research has the Coalition down a point for the second week in a row to 44%, with Labor steady on 39% and the Greens up two to 9%. After shifting a point in Labor’s favour on the basis of little change in the published primary votes last week, two-party preferred remains at 51-49 despite more substantial change this week, suggesting the result has moved from the cusp of 52-48 to the cusp of 50-50.

Essential also finds 61% approval for the government’s new asylum seekers policy against 28% disapproval, and concurs with Galaxy in having the two parties almost equal as best party to handle the issue. Labor is favoured by 25% (up eight on mid-June), Coalition by 26% (down 12) and the Greens by 6% (down one). Asylum seeker arrivals are rated the most important election issue by 7%, one of the most important by 28%, quite important by 35%, not very important by 16% and not at all important by 8%. The poll also has Malcolm Turnbull rated as best person to lead the Liberal Party by 37% against 17% for Tony Abbott and 10% for Joe Hockey, and also includes further questions on workplace productivity.

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Simon Baker
Guest

Rossmore – Indeed, and Abbott sees himself very much as a disciple of Thatcher, even more than John Howard did, which is why several UK Thatcherites like Daniel Hannan MEP are strong supporters of Abbott. Rudd is basically an Australian Blair and Turnbull an Ozzie David Cameron. Gillard was more of a Gordon Brown or Ed Miliband

Lev Lafayette
Guest

On-topic this is the state-by-state figures from Morgan plugged into Antony Green’s election calculator.

http://www.abc.net.au/news/federal-election-2013/calculator/?mode=regional&overall=0&nsw=1.7&vic=0.7&qld=2.1&wa=4.4&sa=0.8&tas=-4.1&act=0&nt=0&retiringmps=false

Interesting, eh?

Lev Lafayette
Guest

Given it’s revleft show-and-tell time, I may as well lay my cards on the table as well.

Briefly a member of the Socialist Workers Party in the eighties during my interesting teenaged years. Was more a members of their youth group, Resistance, from around the ages 17-21 or so. Found their methods too authoritarian for my liking and their theory lacking.

Expressed some interest in the Schachtman group Worker’s Liberty in the early 2000s. Too much of a cadre party for me.

These days I have more of an involvement with the International Luxemburgist Tendency and on occasion have visited the good folk at the Melbourne Anarchist Collective.

Overall, my politics can be described fairly accurately as libertarian socialist. It would be remiss of me not to mention The Isocracy Network (http://isocracy.org) which I initiated a couple of years back.

cud chewer
Guest

New Thread?

*sniff*

cud chewer
Guest

wow. over 4 hours without a comment. something in the water?

cud chewer
Guest

test

mari
Guest

BK
have a great time in Canberra are you seeing LBD and CTAR1? Do you think you will get out safely 😀

BK
Guest

Section 2 . . .

MUST SEE! Alan Moir has a very frustrated Popeye.
http://www.smh.com.au/photogallery/federal-politics/cartoons/alan-moir-20090907-fdxk.html
ANOTHER MUST SEE! David Rowe with Abbott’s and Morriscum’s tent city.
http://www.afr.com/p/national/cartoon_gallery_david_rowe_1g8WHy9urgOIQrWQ0IrkdO
A good one from David Pope.
http://www.smh.com.au/photogallery/federal-politics/cartoons/david-pope-20120214-1t3j0.html
Ron Tandberg on Abboott’s proposed use of the armed forces.
http://www.smh.com.au/photogallery/federal-politics/cartoons/ron-tandberg-20090910-fixc.html

BK is heading to Canberra today and reurning on Sunday. I plan to maintain the Dawn Patrol wile away.

BK
Guest

Good morning Dawn Patrollers.
This trio will put the wind up Credlin and Co. The digital “spoof” guy will have plenty of material to work with!
http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/federal-election-2013/rudd-flies-in-team-obama-20130730-2qxet.html
The key questions on this tawdry issue is which party approached the other and for what purpose?
http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/coalitions-tent-city-trip-funded-by-logistics-company-that-provides-tents-20130730-2qws3.html
The Nauruan trip has urned to sh!t for Tone and Morriscum. Karma.
http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/federal-election-2013/nauruan-mp-warns-against-tents-20130730-2qxhp.html
So Mother Milne thinks the boats will stop if 10000 are allowed to fly in via Indonesia every year? These 10000 will have been assessed as genuine refugees one would assume, so what would those who don’t qualify do?
http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/federal-election-2013/caring-greens-unveil-asylum-policy-to-increase-nations-refugee-intake-20130730-2qxf0.html
Wow! The Guardian’s Katherine Murphy puts the boot in to Abbott and Morriscum for playing the voters as mugs. Cop that Libs!
http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2013/jul/30/tony-abbott-nauru-tent-city
Yes Mr Gordon, but who initiates the carping?
http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/federal-election-2013/manus-titfortat-only-helps-the-people-smugglers-20130730-2qwlf.html
And the portents for Essendon are looking more and more ominous.
http://www.theage.com.au/afl/afl-news/dons-told-drug-was-not-legal-20130730-2qxqq.html
Now St Kilda joins the fray.
http://www.theage.com.au/afl/afl-news/saints-in-drug-probe-20130730-2qxha.html

ruawake
Guest

Poor Tony faces the big guns of ridicule. Plenty to work with.

[While the move is likely to draw criticism from the opposition, it will send shockwaves through the Abbott camp, given the trio’s reputation for devastating campaigns built around a popular candidate using humour and ridicule.]

Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/rudd-flies-in-team-obama-20130730-2qxet.html#ixzz2aYnsAXgd

imacca
Guest

[http://www.theaustralian.com.au/news/breaking-news/aussie-scientists-create-prawn-super-food/story-fn3dxiwe-1226688423365]

Wow, 30-40% increase in growth rates???? Be interesting to see what that does to the aquaculture industry. CSIRO does some good work think I.

imacca
Guest

[The contents of Mod Lib’s genitalia have never been revealed in public.]

Ummmm…perhaps you meant to write:

“The NATURE of Mod Lib’s genitalia have never been revealed in public.”

For which we should duly thankful. 🙁

It…shall we say…reads better to those of of your fellow travelers here with delicate sensibilities. 🙂

Strong UnionsStrongCountry
Guest
Strong UnionsStrongCountry

The mistake was Toll providing a return ticket to Morriscum

Strong UnionsStrongCountry
Guest
Strong UnionsStrongCountry

Abbott has now admitted that “turn/tow the boats back” won’t work.

The massive increase in his Nauru Tent City is evidence of that.

His endorsement of the company that will benefit with a multi-million dollar contract to supply the tents to pay for Morriscum to travel overseas is disgraceful and proves that Liberal policy is based on which multi-national companies will support the Liberals.

Makes you wonder how much the “people smugglers” have contributed to the Liberals

Rational Leftist
Guest

Is Mod Lib a she?

The contents of Mod Lib’s genitalia have never been revealed in public.

Now now, one’s genitals does not determine definitely whether they are a “he” or a “she”

ShowsOn
Guest

[I’m an ex-Trot too. Socialist Alternative.]
Apparently hard core members of Socialist Alternative donate 20 – 30% of their incomes to the party!

lefty e
Guest

Night, ya Splitters!!

Fran Barlow
Guest

Even us ex-Trotskyists need to get enough sleep to function at work later this morning. … Sleep well all …

lefty e
Guest

Agreed, Rossmore.

Yep, that sounds like Trots, Bemused. In those days there would have still USSR-line types in the CP for them to oppose (and fair enough I guess).

Ill give them this: when we were all getting the crap beaten out of us by Bjelke’s police in QLD in the 80s, they werent exactly back line types.

Aside from that – I dunno, Trot groups seem to have an over-representation of people who swing wildly from one thing to another, every few years, with some exceptions, ending up in banking, or religion, or totally apolitical.

By contrast, the independent left social democrat types I knew 20 years ago are all pretty much the same today.

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