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Federal Election 2013

Aug 4, 2013

Newspoll and ReachTEL: 52-48 to Coalition

ReachTEL has opened the election campaign polling account in very short order, while Newspoll has published a poll following its normal Friday-to-Sunday schedule. The two concur on two-party preferred, with the latter finding Kevin Rudd taking a hit on his personal ratings.

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As we enter the first full day of the September 7 federal election campaign:

• Newspoll, conducted between Friday and Sunday, has the Coalition’s lead unchanged on its poll of a fortnight ago at 52-48, from primary votes of 44% for the Coalition (down one), 37% for Labor (steady) and 9% for the Greens (down one). Equally worrying for Labor is a significant drop in Kevin Rudd’s personal ratings, his approval down four points to 38% and disapproval up six to 47%. However, he still leads Tony Abbott as preferred prime minister 47-33, down only slightly from 50-34 a fortnight ago. Abbott has had remarkably constant personal ratings from Newspoll since Rudd’s return: after three successive polls at 35% approval and 56% disapproval, this time he’s down one to 34% and steady at 56%. Full tables from GhostWhoVotes.

• More current still is the result from ReachTEL, which conducted an automated phone poll of 2949 respondents for the Seven Network in the immediate aftermath of yesterday’s election announcement. This too showed the Coalition leading 52-48 on two-party preferred, compared with 51-49 in the ReachTEL poll of a week ago, from primary votes of 37.5% for Labor, 45.7% for the Coalition and 8.2% for the Greens. ReachTEL continues to find Tony Abbott doing well on preferred prime minister, this time leading 50.9-49.1, which is bafflingly at odds with other pollsters (notwithstanding the methodological difference that the survey is only deemed completed if all questions put to respondents are answered, hence the totals adding up to 100). On the question of effective management of the economy, 60.7% favoured the Coalition compared with 39.3% for Labor. While the sample on the poll is certainly impressive, it’s considered better practice to conduct polls over longer periods.

• The BludgerTrack poll aggregate has been updated with these two poll results and some further state-level data that has become available to me, and while the 50-50 starting point from last week slightly blunts the impact of two new 52-48 data points, there has nonetheless been a weighty shift to the Coalition on the implied win probability calculations. On the seat projections, the latest numbers find air going out of the Labor balloon in Queensland (down four seats), together with one-seat shifts to the Coalition in New South Wales and Tasmania. However, the projection of a second gain for Labor in Western Australia, which I looked askance at when it emerged in last week’s result, has stuck. I will resist the temptation to link this to unpopular recent actions of a state government which is flexing its muscles during the early stages of a four year electoral cycle, at least for the time being.

Tomorrow will presumably bring us the regular weekly Essential Research online poll and the Morgan “multi-mode” result, at around 2pm and 6pm EST respectively. The Poll Bludger’s regular guide to the 150 electorates will, I hope, be in action by the end of the week.

UPDATE (Essential Research): Essential Research has two-party preferred steady at 51-49 to the Coalition, from primary votes of 38% for the Labor (down one), 43% for the Coalition (down one) and 9% for the Greens (steady). The survey finds only 44% saying they will definitely not change their mind, with 30% deeming it unlikely and 21% “quite possible”. Respondents were also asked to nominate the leader they most trusted on a range of issues, with Tony Abbott holding modest leads on economic management, controlling interests rates and national security and asylum seeker issues, and Kevin Rudd with double-digit leads on education, health, environment and industrial relations. Kevin Rudd was thought too harsh on asylum seekers by 20%, too soft by 24% and about right by 40%, compared with 21%, 20% and 31% for Tony Abbott.

UPDATE 2 (Morgan): Morgan has Labor down half a point on the primary vote to 38%, the Coalition up 1.5% to 43%, and the Greens up one to 9.5%. With preferences distributed as per the result at the 2010 election, the Coalition has opened up a 50.5-49.5 lead, reversing the result from last week. On the respondent-allocated preferences measure Morgan uses for its headline figure, the result if 50-50 after Labor led 52-48 in the last poll.

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2158 comments

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Sean Tisme
Guest

What a beautiful morning!

Abbott is a head in the polls.

Labor has now blown out to $4 Bucks in the betting

Rudd’s been busted telling fibbie fibs about Nauru

The budget blow out of $30 Billion dollars means Labors economic credentials are in absolute tatters

confessions
Guest

Morning all.

Damn the UK weather for robbing us of another gripping final day of a Test match!

[A STATE MP has been exposed as a serial sexter, sending images to his secret mistress including a picture of his penis plonked in a glass of red wine.]

I had to Google Peter Dowling as he is unknown to me, and was shocked to learn that not only isn’t he a 19yo university student, but has been a member of the Qld parliament for 4 years!

Where on earth do they find these people?!

BK
Guest

And from the Land of the Free –

Don’t you just LOVE Texas!
http://thepoliticalcarnival.net/2013/08/05/video-texas-state-troopers-caught-on-camera-probing-genitals-of-women-at-traffic-stops/
Some cartoons on the Repugs’ 40th attempt to kill off Obamacare.
http://thepoliticalcarnival.net/2013/08/05/cartoons-of-the-day-gop-trying-to-kill-obamacare/
The disgusting Repug Governor of Virginia is heading for a fall.
http://thepoliticalcarnival.net/2013/08/04/in-ominous-sign-for-gov-ultrasound-mcdonnell-his-former-bff-donor-is-cooperating-with-prosecutors/
The idiots will bever give up!
http://videocafe.crooksandliars.com/david/rep-yoho-obamacare-racist-because-white-peop
A very good Ed Schultz interview with Democratic Senator Bernie Sanders on the minimum wage issue.
http://videocafe.crooksandliars.com/heather/sanders-slams-walmart-family-obscene-taxpa
This week’s Gun Fail round up.
http://www.dailykos.com/story/2013/08/03/1227010/-GunFAIL-XXIX
Hmm. THAT’S a suspension for using performance enhancing supplements!
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2013/08/05/mlb-suspensions-drugs-biogenesis_n_3707913.html
Ed Schultz and Mike Papantonio on the demise of Rush Limbaugh and Sean Hannity.
http://www.democraticunderground.com/1017136507
And the winner of the “Little Shit of the Week” award is . .
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2013/08/05/justin-bieber-fight-club_n_3708074.html
How’s this for a rain storm!
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2013/08/05/lethbridge-storm-video_n_3708279.html

OzPol Tragic
Guest

http://www.couriermail.com.au/news/queensland/gold-coast-hospital-sacks-neurosurgeon-dr-teresa-withers-following-doctor-revolt-over-patient-safety-fears/story-fnihsrf2-1226691621657

Save Australia from these uncompromising vandals

Vote for the Whitehead not the Dickhead

So there go SEQ’s Liberal/ LNP vandals. Yet again!

Thanks, Gaffhook!

OzPol Tragic
Guest

Thanks, Gaffhook!

http://www.couriermail.com.au/news/queensland/sexting-mp-peter-dowling-sent-explicit-images-to-secret-mistress/story-fnihsrf2-1226691713991

Did I not warn you, my fellow PBers, that SEQ Libs/ LNP were sleaze personified?

But, Keep it up, QLD LNP! You’re running a great campaign, proving why no QLDer should vote LNP!

OzPol Tragic
Guest

Good Morning, Bludgers

Joe Hockey refuses to commit to final budget total

Exclusive: Shadow treasurer will not produce final forecast of deficit or surplus because Treasury projections are ‘not credible’

WOW! After 2010’s “Hogwartz” fiasco! Don’t the Liberals want to win the Election?

womble
Guest

Morning all

Early start today, shame about the rain killing of our chances last night. we will have to win back the Ashes this summer

The $1.8 billion FBT “rort” is industry welfare by stealth and fully supported by Abbott

What does Rupert want for his support of Abbott???

Bring on day 2, have a great day all

Gaffhook
Guest

No doubt State LNP MP Peter Dowling will now be earmarked for higher office at the Federal level.

He has come through with flying colours.

http://www.couriermail.com.au/news/queensland/sexting-mp-peter-dowling-sent-explicit-images-to-secret-mistress/story-fnihsrf2-1226691713991

Gaffhook
Guest
HaHaHa LNPfilth Makes Peter Slipper look like an amatuer [A STATE MP has been exposed as a serial sexter, sending images to his secret mistress including a picture of his penis plonked in a glass of red wine. In addition, Ethics Committee chairman and Redlands LNP MP Peter Dowling has confirmed he accepted more than $20,000 in free upgraded flights although he was not required by parliamentary rules to declare them. He is also accused of taking advantage of parliamentary travel trips to meet his mistress in locations including Perth and New Zealand. The allegations are made in a letter… Read more »
Gaffhook
Guest
There is no hope for Australians if they are so stupid enough to vote Murdoch and his followers, the LNP, in to power. They show writ large how far they will go to make sure we have a “Guided Democracy” by sacking any whistle blower who tries in vain to get the message out of sheer incompetent destruction of any public facility. This says it all when a leading Neuro Surgeon is just cast on to the dung heap of the unemployed by fucking beligerant incalcitrant posers of the LNP. The LNP are a fucking disgrace and Tony Abbott should… Read more »
Kevin Bonham
Guest

http://kevinbonham.blogspot.com.au/2013/08/poll-roundup-and-seat-betting-watch.html

Poll Roundup and Seat Betting Watch: Five Weeks To Go (August 6)

2PP Aggregate (Tuesday 30 July): 50.8 TO COALITION (+0.7 since last week)
Individual Seat Betting: Labor favourites in 65 seats (no net change, Reid and Forde become tossups)
Seat Total Market: Labor 67 seats (-1)

In this issue:
* Bad weekend of polling for the Government
* Rudd just not that popular
* Strange views of Green voters on asylum seeker issues
* Seat poll of Melbourne is suspicious
* A small 2PP shift can mean a lot

Roxanna
Guest

Thomas. Paine.
Posted Monday, August 5, 2013 at 11:35 pm | PERMALINK
But just checking it cant have been ether. Something they dripped on a gauze on your face

=============

It could still have been ether. Mask over the face, like a strainer, then dripped onto it. I remember it well. My father was an anaesthetist and used to carry it round in the boot of the car and we would all get carsick. Really horrible stuff.when you went under it felt like falling backwards, and when toy woke up you felt like crap, even if you didn’t throw up.

This little black duck
Guest
This little black duck

CC,

My bicycle seems to have lost a thingy. Can you help!

Compact Crank
Guest

Anyone seen a spare NBN Contractor lying around? The NBN appears to have lost one.

This little black duck
Guest
This little black duck

“And it was so”

Genesis 1:11 for you lot.

This little black duck
Guest
This little black duck

Rid me of those italics, please, William.

This little black duck
Guest
This little black duck

[singularly unsurprised]
[Now don’t get me wrong]
That is an interesting contrast: not too many would use “singularly” and someone with learning would put a comma after “Now”.

Knows the use of the subjunctive.

Fawns on the ABC detritus.

From the whole spiel, it is someone with a superiority thingy.

Could be Bob Carr but he is not so prolix in that particular context.

I would guess, someone who appears regularly on The Contrarions.

Chris Kenny.

killerbees
Guest

The 2nd part of the debt answer is probably “no responsible government should ever prioritise modest debt which can be comfortably repaid over jobs, as we have seen to the detriment of the economies in Europe and Queensland”.

This little black duck
Guest
This little black duck

Sleep well, crikey.

PB is with you.

crikey whitey
Guest

I really am going to bed.

Mari, enjoy.

Goodnight sweet William and all.

crikey whitey
Guest

Ducky.

Or be assaulted yourself by either waving arms or lifted fists.

crikey whitey
Guest
Before I go. Might get an overnight on this, posted earlier. May keep you slightly entertained. No googling, and if you know the answer having read it, no spoilers. Just for a bit of gobsmacking fun. I read this whilst visiting the hospital. I will donate a prize of $10 to the Labor campaign headquarters of your choice for correctly naming the author of the following article. ‘Like I am sure may Spectator Australia readers, I have (OK, make that frequent) grumble about the ABC. I was singularly unsurprised by the recent survey of ABC staff which showed that if… Read more »
mari
Guest

You eally have to give Cranky and baby Sean their due been filling PB with stupid comments for how many hours now? I wnet out they were going had been for quite a while just come back 7 hours later and still going, amazing :gtin:
Was wondering does Menzies House cover employees with RSI

This little black duck
Guest
This little black duck

crikey whitey,

Most of us probably do. I vote for policies.

Personally, if I walked along a street and saw Tony Abbott or Kevin Rudd coming towards me then I would have a choice: cross the street or be charged with assault.

crikey whitey
Guest

Duckeeeeee

We vote for illusions.

Thomas. Paine.
Guest

There is room for a caption on that photo.

This little black duck
Guest
This little black duck

There is photshopping and then there is photoshopping.

There is no longer any reason to believe what you see in hard copy, on TV (which we have known for aeons) or on the web.

I think, William, you may have obtained and dis-obtained a few with that one.

crikey whitey
Guest

OMG, William.

This little black duck
Guest
This little black duck

Steve777,

Cricket in England was, a century or two ago, a one-day outing with all the accoutrements of a decent lunch and a sumptuous four o’clock tea.

crikey whitey
Guest

Mari. Greetings.

You are a cheer up! I am ready for bed, so nice to catch you just before.

Steve777
Guest
Manchester has on average 12 days in August with 1 mm or more of rain. This means that in a 5 day test, expect two to be rain affected. That’s about the same as Sydney in Summer. And from what I’ve seen of Cricket, play stops if someone knocks over a glass of water within 100 km of the venue. It would probably make more sense to schedule cricket matches to include an extra day which would only be used in the event of rain delays. I find it difficult to get too excited about a game that is stopped… Read more »
This little black duck
Guest
This little black duck

mari,

Good thing it wasn’t called “Haggis”.

This little black duck
Guest
This little black duck

… on a responsive pitch.

Siddle was swinging the ball both ways. Lyon was getting away drift and lots of bite from the pitch although a bit slow, as you would expect.

mari
Guest

I thought PBers would like to know I walked past a restaurant in the trendy part of Edinburgh today called Bilbos and the special today was Haggis Balls deep fried 😀

This little black duck
Guest
This little black duck

[In England the odds are one test will be cut short]
Would that be “the odds are that a deciding test will be cut short”?

Did you watch today’s play? Australia needed another 3 or 4 hours and were bowling brilliantly.

davidwh
Guest

The Ashes slipped away in the first two tests. In England the odds are one test will be cut short and any touring team relying on winning the last three tests after losing the first two was looking for one of those miracles to happen.

This little black duck
Guest
This little black duck

[Gareth: “Everyone’s a captain in hindsight. What if Clarke declared and the rain stayed away? England would have won the Test and Clarke would have been a laughing stock. He captained well with the facts he had.” I don’t think anyone would rile Clarke if Australia lost with a generous declaration. They have to win the keep the series alive, it doesn’t really matter if they lose.]
Perzactly!

Steve777
Guest
if we were taxing at the rate of the Howard Government we would already be in surplus… Contrary to what Liberals say they’re about, Howard ran a high tax high spend government. With receipts from income tax and company tax rolling in, the Howard Government ran a sort of triennial lottery. Each year, the average taxpayer paid an additional $1,000 to $1,500 above what was needed to pay for Commonwealth expenditure. Also, Howard and Co. sold off public assets, usually at fire sale prices, often to their business allies. Then come election time, if you belonged to a demographic that… Read more »
Socrates
Guest

Sigh, Psephos is right about the cricket. Night all.

Sustainable future
Guest
The fact that Murdoch is so overtly commanding his media to achieve a change of government makes me a bit more pessimistic than I have been – 70% of the print media and 99% of the bogan media of the nation. I still think many swinging voters will not vote for Abbott against Rudd – I base this simply on a gut feel that if they wouldn’t vote for Hewson against Keating in 1993, they are unlikely to vote for a nutter like Abbott against Rudd. Abbott is a Latham-like character and this is going to come out during the… Read more »
This little black duck
Guest
This little black duck
There really are some idiots around cricket, as well: [Ben: “For me, all this simply underlines a key question – why didn’t Clarke declare earlier? If he had declared at Tea yesterday, Australia would have been 290 ahead, they wouldn’t have lost time to the light (because he would have been able to bowl two spinners – as the Umps requested) and England would have had a carrot to chase. Instead, he batted on (even when Starc fell!), gave England no incentive whatsoever to go for the win.” ] http://www.espncricinfo.com/the-ashes-2013/engine/current/match/566934.html Clarke did not reckon that idiocy would be part of… Read more »
Socrates
Guest

Thinking about some slogans:

Bone Tone
Abbottabad, for a public service jihad
Obey Murdoch, vote Abbott!
Surrender to the Mad Monk of Manly

Kevin Sept 7
Keep Australia sane, vote Labor

Psephos
Guest

Rain in Manchester, Ashes slipping away…

*Exit

victoria
Guest

The Liberal ad launch with a twist

http://youtu.be/0fvisgL06Vk

Night all

crikey whitey
Guest

Ooh, T.P.

Anguish for you.

Thomas. Paine.
Guest

Chloroform.

Will never forget that day. Suffered a traumatic and rather painful injury, having my arm ripped to pieces in one those old washing machines.

Followed up with something different a few years later.

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