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Federal Election 2013

Aug 4, 2013

Newspoll and ReachTEL: 52-48 to Coalition

ReachTEL has opened the election campaign polling account in very short order, while Newspoll has published a poll following its normal Friday-to-Sunday schedule. The two concur on two-party preferred, with the latter finding Kevin Rudd taking a hit on his personal ratings.

As we enter the first full day of the September 7 federal election campaign:

• Newspoll, conducted between Friday and Sunday, has the Coalition’s lead unchanged on its poll of a fortnight ago at 52-48, from primary votes of 44% for the Coalition (down one), 37% for Labor (steady) and 9% for the Greens (down one). Equally worrying for Labor is a significant drop in Kevin Rudd’s personal ratings, his approval down four points to 38% and disapproval up six to 47%. However, he still leads Tony Abbott as preferred prime minister 47-33, down only slightly from 50-34 a fortnight ago. Abbott has had remarkably constant personal ratings from Newspoll since Rudd’s return: after three successive polls at 35% approval and 56% disapproval, this time he’s down one to 34% and steady at 56%. Full tables from GhostWhoVotes.

• More current still is the result from ReachTEL, which conducted an automated phone poll of 2949 respondents for the Seven Network in the immediate aftermath of yesterday’s election announcement. This too showed the Coalition leading 52-48 on two-party preferred, compared with 51-49 in the ReachTEL poll of a week ago, from primary votes of 37.5% for Labor, 45.7% for the Coalition and 8.2% for the Greens. ReachTEL continues to find Tony Abbott doing well on preferred prime minister, this time leading 50.9-49.1, which is bafflingly at odds with other pollsters (notwithstanding the methodological difference that the survey is only deemed completed if all questions put to respondents are answered, hence the totals adding up to 100). On the question of effective management of the economy, 60.7% favoured the Coalition compared with 39.3% for Labor. While the sample on the poll is certainly impressive, it’s considered better practice to conduct polls over longer periods.

• The BludgerTrack poll aggregate has been updated with these two poll results and some further state-level data that has become available to me, and while the 50-50 starting point from last week slightly blunts the impact of two new 52-48 data points, there has nonetheless been a weighty shift to the Coalition on the implied win probability calculations. On the seat projections, the latest numbers find air going out of the Labor balloon in Queensland (down four seats), together with one-seat shifts to the Coalition in New South Wales and Tasmania. However, the projection of a second gain for Labor in Western Australia, which I looked askance at when it emerged in last week’s result, has stuck. I will resist the temptation to link this to unpopular recent actions of a state government which is flexing its muscles during the early stages of a four year electoral cycle, at least for the time being.

Tomorrow will presumably bring us the regular weekly Essential Research online poll and the Morgan “multi-mode” result, at around 2pm and 6pm EST respectively. The Poll Bludger’s regular guide to the 150 electorates will, I hope, be in action by the end of the week.

UPDATE (Essential Research): Essential Research has two-party preferred steady at 51-49 to the Coalition, from primary votes of 38% for the Labor (down one), 43% for the Coalition (down one) and 9% for the Greens (steady). The survey finds only 44% saying they will definitely not change their mind, with 30% deeming it unlikely and 21% “quite possible”. Respondents were also asked to nominate the leader they most trusted on a range of issues, with Tony Abbott holding modest leads on economic management, controlling interests rates and national security and asylum seeker issues, and Kevin Rudd with double-digit leads on education, health, environment and industrial relations. Kevin Rudd was thought too harsh on asylum seekers by 20%, too soft by 24% and about right by 40%, compared with 21%, 20% and 31% for Tony Abbott.

UPDATE 2 (Morgan): Morgan has Labor down half a point on the primary vote to 38%, the Coalition up 1.5% to 43%, and the Greens up one to 9.5%. With preferences distributed as per the result at the 2010 election, the Coalition has opened up a 50.5-49.5 lead, reversing the result from last week. On the respondent-allocated preferences measure Morgan uses for its headline figure, the result if 50-50 after Labor led 52-48 in the last poll.

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2158 comments

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Sean Tisme
Guest

What a beautiful morning!

Abbott is a head in the polls.

Labor has now blown out to $4 Bucks in the betting

Rudd’s been busted telling fibbie fibs about Nauru

The budget blow out of $30 Billion dollars means Labors economic credentials are in absolute tatters

Confessions
Guest

Morning all.

Damn the UK weather for robbing us of another gripping final day of a Test match!

[A STATE MP has been exposed as a serial sexter, sending images to his secret mistress including a picture of his penis plonked in a glass of red wine.]

I had to Google Peter Dowling as he is unknown to me, and was shocked to learn that not only isn’t he a 19yo university student, but has been a member of the Qld parliament for 4 years!

Where on earth do they find these people?!

BK
Guest

And from the Land of the Free –

Don’t you just LOVE Texas!
http://thepoliticalcarnival.net/2013/08/05/video-texas-state-troopers-caught-on-camera-probing-genitals-of-women-at-traffic-stops/
Some cartoons on the Repugs’ 40th attempt to kill off Obamacare.
http://thepoliticalcarnival.net/2013/08/05/cartoons-of-the-day-gop-trying-to-kill-obamacare/
The disgusting Repug Governor of Virginia is heading for a fall.
http://thepoliticalcarnival.net/2013/08/04/in-ominous-sign-for-gov-ultrasound-mcdonnell-his-former-bff-donor-is-cooperating-with-prosecutors/
The idiots will bever give up!
http://videocafe.crooksandliars.com/david/rep-yoho-obamacare-racist-because-white-peop
A very good Ed Schultz interview with Democratic Senator Bernie Sanders on the minimum wage issue.
http://videocafe.crooksandliars.com/heather/sanders-slams-walmart-family-obscene-taxpa
This week’s Gun Fail round up.
http://www.dailykos.com/story/2013/08/03/1227010/-GunFAIL-XXIX
Hmm. THAT’S a suspension for using performance enhancing supplements!
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2013/08/05/mlb-suspensions-drugs-biogenesis_n_3707913.html
Ed Schultz and Mike Papantonio on the demise of Rush Limbaugh and Sean Hannity.
http://www.democraticunderground.com/1017136507
And the winner of the “Little Shit of the Week” award is . .
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2013/08/05/justin-bieber-fight-club_n_3708074.html
How’s this for a rain storm!
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2013/08/05/lethbridge-storm-video_n_3708279.html

OzPol Tragic
Guest

http://www.couriermail.com.au/news/queensland/gold-coast-hospital-sacks-neurosurgeon-dr-teresa-withers-following-doctor-revolt-over-patient-safety-fears/story-fnihsrf2-1226691621657

Save Australia from these uncompromising vandals

Vote for the Whitehead not the Dickhead

So there go SEQ’s Liberal/ LNP vandals. Yet again!

Thanks, Gaffhook!

OzPol Tragic
Guest

Thanks, Gaffhook!

http://www.couriermail.com.au/news/queensland/sexting-mp-peter-dowling-sent-explicit-images-to-secret-mistress/story-fnihsrf2-1226691713991

Did I not warn you, my fellow PBers, that SEQ Libs/ LNP were sleaze personified?

But, Keep it up, QLD LNP! You’re running a great campaign, proving why no QLDer should vote LNP!

OzPol Tragic
Guest

Good Morning, Bludgers

Joe Hockey refuses to commit to final budget total

Exclusive: Shadow treasurer will not produce final forecast of deficit or surplus because Treasury projections are ‘not credible’

WOW! After 2010’s “Hogwartz” fiasco! Don’t the Liberals want to win the Election?

womble
Guest

Morning all

Early start today, shame about the rain killing of our chances last night. we will have to win back the Ashes this summer

The $1.8 billion FBT “rort” is industry welfare by stealth and fully supported by Abbott

What does Rupert want for his support of Abbott???

Bring on day 2, have a great day all

Gaffhook
Guest

No doubt State LNP MP Peter Dowling will now be earmarked for higher office at the Federal level.

He has come through with flying colours.

http://www.couriermail.com.au/news/queensland/sexting-mp-peter-dowling-sent-explicit-images-to-secret-mistress/story-fnihsrf2-1226691713991

Gaffhook
Guest

HaHaHa LNPfilth

Makes Peter Slipper look like an amatuer

[A STATE MP has been exposed as a serial sexter, sending images to his secret mistress including a picture of his penis plonked in a glass of red wine.

In addition, Ethics Committee chairman and Redlands LNP MP Peter Dowling has confirmed he accepted more than $20,000 in free upgraded flights although he was not required by parliamentary rules to declare them.

He is also accused of taking advantage of parliamentary travel trips to meet his mistress in locations including Perth and New Zealand. The allegations are made in a letter from Mr Dowling’s former lover to Speaker Fiona Simpson.

The Courier-Mail has seen several explicit text messages sent from Mr Dowling’s mobile phone to the woman, including a picture of his penis in a glass of red wine, a self-shot image of his crotch while wearing boxer shorts and a full frontal picture of his genitalia.

“He wanted a Red Wine …,” Mr Dowling said in the text message sent with the image of his penis in the glass. Another image shows a grinning Mr Dowling holding the wine glass in a cheers salute.

It is believed some of the pictures were taken in his parliamentary annex office.]

http://www.couriermail.com.au/news/queensland/sexting-mp-peter-dowling-sent-explicit-images-to-secret-mistress/story-fnihsrf2-1226691713991

Gaffhook
Guest

There is no hope for Australians if they are so stupid enough to vote Murdoch and his followers, the LNP, in to power.

They show writ large how far they will go to make sure we have a “Guided Democracy” by sacking any whistle blower who tries in vain to get the message out of sheer incompetent destruction of any public facility.

This says it all when a leading Neuro Surgeon is just cast on to the dung heap of the unemployed by fucking beligerant incalcitrant posers of the LNP.

The LNP are a fucking disgrace and Tony Abbott should be let known in no uncertain terms that their vicious rule mentality is not required in Australia.

Even though there has been a change of management at the Courier Mail there are still a few there who are prepared to expose these economic vandals for what they are.

I hope my fellow Queenslanders will see the error of their way and not give Abbott the same chance to destroy our society.

[A BALI bombings surgeon has been sacked as director of surgery at Gold Coast Hospital after leading a doctor revolt over allegations including a “dangerous” bed shortage and workplace bullying and intimidation.

Neurosurgeon Dr Teresa Withers and fellow senior doctors have hired high-powered lawyers to fight hospital management after she was dumped from the post she had held for 12 years.

Dr Withers, whom former premier Peter Beattie flew to Darwin to treat victims after the 2005 Bali bombings, had been raising allegations of mismanagement at the Gold Coast Hospital which she and other doctors claim is endangering patient safety.]

http://www.couriermail.com.au/news/queensland/gold-coast-hospital-sacks-neurosurgeon-dr-teresa-withers-following-doctor-revolt-over-patient-safety-fears/story-fnihsrf2-1226691621657

Save Australia from these uncompromising vandals

Vote for the Whitehead not the Dickhead

Kevin Bonham
Guest

http://kevinbonham.blogspot.com.au/2013/08/poll-roundup-and-seat-betting-watch.html

Poll Roundup and Seat Betting Watch: Five Weeks To Go (August 6)

2PP Aggregate (Tuesday 30 July): 50.8 TO COALITION (+0.7 since last week)
Individual Seat Betting: Labor favourites in 65 seats (no net change, Reid and Forde become tossups)
Seat Total Market: Labor 67 seats (-1)

In this issue:
* Bad weekend of polling for the Government
* Rudd just not that popular
* Strange views of Green voters on asylum seeker issues
* Seat poll of Melbourne is suspicious
* A small 2PP shift can mean a lot

Roxanna
Guest

Thomas. Paine.
Posted Monday, August 5, 2013 at 11:35 pm | PERMALINK
But just checking it cant have been ether. Something they dripped on a gauze on your face

=============

It could still have been ether. Mask over the face, like a strainer, then dripped onto it. I remember it well. My father was an anaesthetist and used to carry it round in the boot of the car and we would all get carsick. Really horrible stuff.when you went under it felt like falling backwards, and when toy woke up you felt like crap, even if you didn’t throw up.

This little black duck
Guest
This little black duck

CC,

My bicycle seems to have lost a thingy. Can you help!

Compact Crank
Guest

Anyone seen a spare NBN Contractor lying around? The NBN appears to have lost one.

This little black duck
Guest
This little black duck

“And it was so”

Genesis 1:11 for you lot.

This little black duck
Guest
This little black duck

Rid me of those italics, please, William.

This little black duck
Guest
This little black duck

[singularly unsurprised]
[Now don’t get me wrong]
That is an interesting contrast: not too many would use “singularly” and someone with learning would put a comma after “Now”.

Knows the use of the subjunctive.

Fawns on the ABC detritus.

From the whole spiel, it is someone with a superiority thingy.

Could be Bob Carr but he is not so prolix in that particular context.

I would guess, someone who appears regularly on The Contrarions.

Chris Kenny.

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