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Federal Election 2013

Aug 9, 2013

Nielsen: 52-48 to Coalition; Galaxy: 56-44 to Coalition in Queensland

The first Nielsen result of the campaign propels the BludgerTrack poll aggregate another notch further in the Coalition's direction, while a Galaxy poll from Queensland confirms the evaporation there of a Ruddstoration boost which presumably sent Labor to Peter Beattie's door.

GhostWhoVotes reports that Nielsen, which has unusually conducted its poll from Tuesday to Thursday for publication at the start of the weekend (UPDATE: Ghost indicates that this is its normal practice during election campaigns), shows the Coalition with a lead of 52-48 after a 50-50 result in the previous poll of four weeks ago. On the primary vote, Labor is down two to 37% and the Coalition up two to 46%, with the Greens up one to 10%. Kevin Rudd’s approval ratings are down, though not quite to the same degree as in Newspoll: his approval is down three to 48% with disapproval up four to 47%. Tony Abbott on the other hand scores his best personal results from Nielsen since July 2011, his approval up four to 45% and disapproval down four to 52%. Rudd’s lead as preferred prime minister has shrunk from 55-41 to 50-42. The poll had Nielsen’s usual large sample of 1400. Full results including state breakdowns here.

Also through this evening is a Galaxy poll showing the Coalition with a 56-44 lead in Queensland, compared with 55.1-44.9 at the 2010 election. Annoyingly, the only detail on the primary vote provided in the Courier-Mail is that Labor is on 34%, compared with 33.6% in 2010. We are however provided with the following results from largely uninteresting attitudinal questions: 50% said Rudd had a good or very good understanding of issues that affect Queensland compared with 36%, with the respective poor ratings at 25% and 29%; 10% said they were more likely to vote for Rudd because he was a Queenslander; 35% of respondents over all, and 65% of Labor supporters, said they expected Labor to win. The poll was conducted on Wednesday and Thursday from a sample of 800 respondents. (UPDATE: The poll has the Greens on 7%, Katter’s Australian Party on 4% and the Palmer United Party on 4%).

The above results have been used to update BludgerTrack, causing it to tick two seats in the Coalition’s direction with gains in Victoria and Queensland. I’m pleased to say that the tracker has done a good job of picking up Labor’s evident deflation in the latter state, with an early brace of projected Labor gains after Kevin Rudd’s return steady evaporating and now putting them very slightly in negative territory. It would not of course have picked up any Peter Beattie dividend for Labor as of yet. Less happily, the projection insists on granting Labor an implausible third seat in Western Australia. While the two most marginal Liberal seats of Hasluck and Swan could well be in the Labor firing line, the model is very likely overestimating their chances in Canning off the back of the boost Labor received there in 2010 from Alannah MacTiernan’s candidacy.

Finally, The Guardian reports on an automated phone poll conducted in Anthony Albanese’s inner-city Sydney electorate of Grayndler by Lonergan Research, who I have not encountered previously but whose work appears well regarded by those who have. It turns in a highly plausible set of numbers with Albanese at 47% on the primary vote (compared with 46.1% in 2010), the Liberals at 28% (up from 24.2%) and the Greens at 22% (down from 25.9%). A 66% two-party preferred vote for Labor is provided in the poll, which presumably means versus the Liberals (the Greens made it to the final count in 2010, leaving Albanese with a margin of 4.2%), although I’m not clear if this is previous-election or respondent-allocated preferences (UPDATE: It seems respondents were not asked about preferences, so evidently it’s the former). The sample is a hefty 966.

UPDATE: Now we have a ReachTEL poll, conducted today, showing the Coalition leading 53-47. More to follow.

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1067 comments

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Simon Baker
Guest

ModLib – In fact in the last Nielsen the ALP only led with 18-24s 38-37%, that should now swing strongly ALP!
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Oakeshott Country
Guest

Abbott ahead in PPM!
On these figures LNP will be close to 100

alias
Guest

I have been away for 3 days and largely out of the loop in terms of political events.

Sometimes this sort of distance is useful to get some perspective, and this is mine:

Rudd’s chances of victory are significantly slimmer because the economy has turned. No fault of his, or of Labor’s; just happenstance. The jobless rate is heading up, growth is slowing and people are worried. That is an almost impossible hurdle to jump.

Except for one thing.

Tony Abbott.

This is still a potentially freakish election in that Abbott is totally capable of confirming the very widely held suspicions that he is simply unfit to be Australia’s PM. Just one dumb moment in the glare of the election campaign would seal the deal, I believe.

If Abbott is elected, he’ll be the accidental PM. The prevailing sentiment after the Liberal party vote to elect him (“Oh my God, what have we done?” ) will apply to the country as a whole if he romps home on Sept 7.

I still think Rudd can pull this out of the bag, with Abbott’s help. It’s going to be tough. It’s going to be a seat by seat strategy, along the lines of Forde. We need several more Forde type masterstrokes to make victory seem more plausible.

Still, overall I’m trying to reconcile myself to an Abbott PM-ship. At least he appears to have his heart sort of in the right place in relation to Aboriginal matters.

Meguire Bob
Guest

In the speech rudd gave when he said if an election was held yesterday , abbott would had been prime minister

Was rubbing it in to abbott

guytaur
Guest

Also staying positive not working. Might as well go mongrel starting with reminding people of Abbott’s attack on a person in a wheel chair. If its good enough for Murdoch and Team Abbott.

New2This
Guest

Should Labor look to another leader… Bob Carr Peter Beattie billy shorten Yvette daft…

Meguire Bob
Guest

There is no way rudd if he didnt feel safe he would had called the election

Meguire Bob
Guest

Im calling it labor 80

coalition 67

pithicus
Guest

smells like a strategic momentum push.

Meguire Bob
Guest

John Hewson , Kim Beazley would have been prime ministers if opinion polling were true indicators

Utopia
Guest

Day 1 of election
Modlib 85 seats to 65 (with hangers on allocated as per their obvious bias, ie Wilkie, Bandt, Katter)

Day 6 of election
Gloryconsequence 80+ seats to 70- seats

Strong UnionsStrongCountry
Guest
Strong UnionsStrongCountry

http://youtu.be/GLAu2aY5UgY

the real Tony Abbott

Psephos
Guest

I’m not doing an election guide this time (too much work, too many similar projects), but I have updated my Index of House of Representatives Divisions 1901-2013, with enrolments, two-party votes and members for every Division at every election since Federation.
http://psephos.adam-carr.net/countries/a/australia/divisions/divisions.shtml

Meguire Bob
Guest

gloryconsequence

only if opinion polls counted in the election which they dont

New2This
Guest

Rudd will never change his behavior…

guytaur
Guest

A big policy surprise will change that.

Maybe a Very Fast Train commencement date.

gloryconsequence
Guest

I’m calling it.

Coalition to win with 80+

Meguire Bob
Guest

As windsor said about reachtel polls they are done by the dodgy brothers

when they were caught out only polling in the pro coalition areas in new england

Utopia
Guest

Former ALP President all but endorsing a vote for an Abbott Government

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