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Federal Election 2013

Aug 11, 2013

Newspoll: 52-48 to Coalition

Newspoll's second poll for the campaign shows no change on the two-party preferred, but a fair bit going on in the primary vote. Morgan's weekly multi-mode poll has also made an early appearance, and they also offer an SMS poll on responses to the debate.

GhostWhoVotes tweets that Newspoll’s second weekly (I presume) poll for the campaign has the Coalition lead at 52-48, unchanged on last week. However, Labor is down two (to 35%) and the Coalition up two (to 46%) on the primary vote, with a two point increase for the Greens to 11% allowing the two-party vote to remain stable, presumably with help from rounding. Tony Abbott’s numbers continue to improve, his personal ratings now almost equal with Kevin Rudd’s. He is up four points on approval to 38% and down four on disapproval to 52%, while Kevin Rudd is up one apiece to 39% and 48%. Rudd’s lead as preferred prime minister has narrowed from 47-33 to 46-37.

UPDATE: And now the weekly Morgan multi-mode poll, which normally comes out on Monday afternoon, has made its appearance, and it’s well in line with all the other polling: Labor down 1.5% to 36.5%, and both the Coalition and the Greens up a point to 44% and 10.5%. That pans out to a 51.5-48.5 lead to the Coalition on two-party preferred using 2010 election preferences, but a stronger 50-50 result for Labor on respondent-allocated preferences. State breakdowns are featured, and they interestingly show a five-point shift to Labor on two-party preferred in Queensland.

Morgan also got 1200 responses to an SMS poll conducted this evening on reaction to the debate, which is probably the most reliable data we have on this. It shows an effective dead heat with Kevin Rudd rated the winner by 24%, Tony Abbott favoured by 23%, 5% calling it a draw, and 48% granted that they hadn’t watched (non-watchers presumably also having tended to be non-respondents).

BludgerTrack has been updated with the Newspoll result but not the Morgan. I’ll follow up on that tomorrow after Essential Research comes out (UPDATE: Essential Research will not be out until tomorrow, so I’ve updated BludgerTrack without it).

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2129 comments

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don
Guest

imacca@2108

And before the spelling Nazi’s descend, in my 2102 i did mean troupe, not troop.

#Nazis

1934pc
Guest

“”At least this campaign, compared to the last, their costings are an issue””

Don’t trust them, they will try to pull that one again!.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WgjGWYZSVUA

Strong UnionsStrongCountry
Guest
Strong UnionsStrongCountry

Meguire Bob

Posted Tuesday, August 13, 2013 at 2:30 pm | Permalink

AussieAchmed
Posted Tuesday, August 13, 2013 at 2:28 pm | PERMALINK

Colon will be upset. When in WA Abbott said he would model himself on Barnett.

Abbott – the multi-model personalities

—————–
So Will Campbell ,When in QLD Abbott said he would model himself on Newman
——————————————————-

will the real tony abbott please stand up please stand up

This little black duck
Guest
This little black duck

Mr Abbott will model himself on another of his heroes: Campbell Newman. Tony is a Queenslander, after all.

Strong UnionsStrongCountry
Guest
Strong UnionsStrongCountry

mikehilliard

Posted Tuesday, August 13, 2013 at 2:21 pm | Permalink

sprocket – where do you get this stuff?

Photos show why there was so much raucous cheering, Abbott preaching to the converted, no sceptics allowed.
———————————————————

did he have notes?

or was he wearing an earpiece so Peta could keep reminding him to breath

StephenD
Guest

imacca:

And before the spelling Nazi’s descend, in my 2102 i did mean troupe, not troop.

You might have avoided the spelling Nazis, but the Apostrophe Police are running towards you with their Tasers out.

Meguire Bob
Guest

AussieAchmed
Posted Tuesday, August 13, 2013 at 2:28 pm | PERMALINK

Colon will be upset. When in WA Abbott said he would model himself on Barnett.

Abbott – the multi-model personalities

—————–
So Will Campbell ,When in QLD Abbott said he would model himself on Newman

guytaur
Guest

Well only needs Bolt to join the chorus

@michellegrattan: Heat on Coalition to stump up its costings http://t.co/HP9jG6NM4t via @ConversationEDU #auspol #ausvotes

Strong UnionsStrongCountry
Guest
Strong UnionsStrongCountry

zoidlord

Posted Tuesday, August 13, 2013 at 2:22 pm | Permalink

@davidwh/2103

It’s not that they are wrong or misleading, but rather what will Coalition Party do in the advent of winning the election.

Remember, Tony Abbott said that he is modeled himself on Jeff Kennett.
————————————————

Colon will be upset. When in WA Abbott said he would model himself on Barnett.

Abbott – the multi-model personalities

Strong UnionsStrongCountry
Guest
Strong UnionsStrongCountry

PEFO increases the CT and MRRT by that amount, of course Joe doesn’t want the money.

or the $5 billion in business tax cuts. hahaha

what a crock of shite!

We will cut company tax 1.5%…then introduce a levy of 1.5%

I was never good at maths but that looks dodgy even to me

Andrew
Guest

zoidlord the Kennett reference i think was a major error. I hope the ALP runs ads in Victoria about it

imacca
Guest

[Laura needs to have a word with her editor.

A baseball bat may assist her argument.]

LoL!

I once watched Penny Wong in Senate Estimates trying to explain things in simple words to Bernardi and Joyce. I emailed her and suggested that she may feel better if she takes a taser or cattle prod with her next time next time.

More fun, and less blood than a baseball bat. 🙂

Andrew
Guest

Has Costello been asked what he thinks of the coalition, for the second successive election, not complying with his charter?

Andrew
Guest

Sean is kind of right. The coalition will be allowed by the OM to get away with not releasing full costings.

Tingle should renew her attack. I wonder whether she will?

zoidlord
Guest

@davidwh/2103

It’s not that they are wrong or misleading, but rather what will Coalition Party do in the advent of winning the election.

Remember, Tony Abbott said that he is modeled himself on Jeff Kennett.

This little black duck
Guest
This little black duck

davidwh@2103

Why are you all calling for costings you already know are wrong, misleading and full of black holes?

Because we want one point of reference for the two sides. Only way to a fair comparison.

ruawake
Guest

If Hockey had done his costings on the Economic Statement and not PEFO he would have had an extra $800 million to play with.

PEFO increases the CT and MRRT by that amount, of course Joe doesn’t want the money.

Strong UnionsStrongCountry
Guest
Strong UnionsStrongCountry
Sean believes that Abbott should ditch Costello’s Charter of Budget Honesty. Liberals even dumping Liberal initiated reform CHARTER OF BUDGET HONESTY THE HONOURABLE PETER COSTELLO, M.P., During the caretaker period the legislation will allow both the Prime Minister and the Leader of the Opposition to request that costings of their announced policies be prepared by the Secretaries to the Department of the Treasury and the Department of Finance. Requests may only be made by the Prime Minister or Leader of the Opposition with respect to his or her own party’s policies. The availability and public release, on request, of independent… Read more »
mikehilliard
Guest

sprocket – where do you get this stuff?

Photos show why there was so much raucous cheering, Abbott preaching to the converted, no sceptics allowed.

bemused
Guest

imacca@2098

Laura Tingle

There are two possible explanations for how an opposition presenting itself as an alternative government could end up with an $11 billion hole in the cost of its election commitments.

One is that they are liars, the other is that they are clunkheads. Actually, there is a third explanation: they are liars and clunkheads.

But whatever the combination, they are not fit to govern.


So, Laura is not really one for pulling her punches then?

Laura needs to have a word with her editor.

A baseball bat may assist her argument.

imacca
Guest

And before the spelling Nazi’s descend, in my 2102 i did mean troupe, not troop.

lefty e
Guest

Ooh,check out these nasty approval figures for Abbott by gender.

Big problem with women voters: By gender – men 45% approve/47% disapprove, women 31% approve/55% disapprove.

Women net disapproval up from -16 to -24 – in last 4 weeks.

sprocket_
Guest
So basically, the Liberals got all their candidates to dress up in ble shirts, pump up a few ballons and corflutes, and put up a stage in a locked carpark at the back of Penrith Trotting Paceway. Then bus the unsuspecting journalists and tv crews in. No public allowed in through locked gates. And then the coup de grace, the Abbott festooned bus arrives, but the gates are locked – so it holds up traffic for a while till they open up. Cue shots of cheering Liberals, beaming Abbott – kids in tow – and cameras whirring. Lets see how… Read more »
davidwh
Guest

Why are you all calling for costings you already know are wrong, misleading and full of black holes?

imacca
Guest

Ah, that one was from the last election then.

Hmm…..wonder what :monkey: and troupe can expect this time?? 🙂

Meguire Bob
Guest

The only thing i will say about essential polling

liek every ohter opinion polling why are they gutless to ask about the biased from newsltd

lefty e
Guest

[The Coalition do NOT need to release their costings.]

Sean, under the Charter of Budget Honesty,introduced by Peter Costello, they actually do have to.

This little black duck
Guest
This little black duck

Figures will be released on the Wednesday before the election. Trust me.

imacca
Guest

[Laura Tingle

There are two possible explanations for how an opposition presenting itself as an alternative government could end up with an $11 billion hole in the cost of its election commitments.

One is that they are liars, the other is that they are clunkheads. Actually, there is a third explanation: they are liars and clunkheads.

But whatever the combination, they are not fit to govern.]

So, Laura is not really one for pulling her punches then?

DisplayName
Guest

Diogenes@2079

ltep

I agree. I’m sure the Minister strongly encourages the public servants to review the numbers they don’t like and happily accept the numbers they do like.

So basically you’re assuming whatever suits you.

Strong UnionsStrongCountry
Guest
Strong UnionsStrongCountry

Abbott/Hockey all the hangers on have stated they will release their costings.

To not do so would just be another arrogant betrayal of the people

sprocket_
Guest

some more photos of the Liberal Locked Launch by an intrepid local

https://twitter.com/ChrissieM/status/367133083973062656/photo/1

https://twitter.com/ChrissieM/status/367134781705699328/photo/1

The Abbott bus blocked the road for a while…

zoidlord
Guest

Essential Media ‏@EssentialVision 42s

Hey @GlenIbell – the website is being updated with this week’s Essential Report. Here is the direct link to download http://bit.ly/13gc3xP

zoidlord
Guest

@Sean/2090

Yes they do.

Strong UnionsStrongCountry
Guest
Strong UnionsStrongCountry

Diogenes

Posted Tuesday, August 13, 2013 at 2:07 pm | Permalink

ltep

I agree. I’m sure the Minister strongly encourages the public servants to review the numbers they don’t like and happily accept the numbers they do like.
——————————————————-

Number I don’t like = I’ve never liked the number 4, 3 is close, but 9 oh what a terrible number

I like 2, 8, and 10. There are others but I could go about them for infinity

This little black duck
Guest
This little black duck

I’m not sure Fukushima Switkowski was the right bloke to do the review for the AFL.

Sean Tisme
Guest

The Coalition do NOT need to release their costings.

Labor has a $30 Billion Dollar black hole and the Australian people trust the Coalition to bring the budget back to surplus

lefty e
Guest

Essential not bad at all: too close to call.

lefty e
Guest

Rudd’s net approval has taken a big hit, now 45+ (-5), 43 – (+8)

Abbott’s a smaller hit 37+ (-2), 51 – (0).

Prefferd PM Rudd 47 (-3) – 35 (0).

ruawake
Guest

Ooops link for 2084

http://www.afr.com/p/opinion/liars_and_clunkheads_fail_budget_N34GyIaJiG6fPHVUnZ6iXI

3 years on and they are trying it again.

the spectator
Guest

yove gotta love a scare campaign on the GST. must be hitting a raw nerve with Abbott. getting a bit testy on that I see. just a great big new tax on everything one would think. hilarious rolling in the aisles stuff I reckon.

CTar1
Guest

lefty

[what is wrong with Hockey these days]

He used to pretend to be genial with the Press and the general public.

A dose of Opposition seems to have changes this.

Marrickville Mauler
Guest

LTEP – there’s a special repository in the trousers for … y’know. Their fundamental positions or something like that.

ruawake
Guest

[Laura Tingle

There are two possible explanations for how an opposition presenting itself as an alternative government could end up with an $11 billion hole in the cost of its election commitments.

One is that they are liars, the other is that they are clunkheads. Actually, there is a third explanation: they are liars and clunkheads.

But whatever the combination, they are not fit to govern.]

Nothing changes.

lefty e
Guest

Essential: unchanged at 51-49, but with a rise in ALP PV to 39 (+1), LNP 43 (0), GRN 8 (-1).

Ill take that!

This little black duck
Guest
This little black duck

Three word slogans are easy!

autocrat
Guest

I was just reading some of the comments on the NBN debate. I’d like to send out a big “congratulations” to Malcolm Turnbull, whose constant lying about technology and large-scale infrastructure projects has managed to make people stupider and more ignorant than they previously were.

Bravo.

Diogenes
Guest

ltep

I agree. I’m sure the Minister strongly encourages the public servants to review the numbers they don’t like and happily accept the numbers they do like.

This little black duck
Guest
This little black duck

Lock The Gates!

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