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Federal Election 2013

Aug 11, 2013

Newspoll: 52-48 to Coalition

Newspoll's second poll for the campaign shows no change on the two-party preferred, but a fair bit going on in the primary vote. Morgan's weekly multi-mode poll has also made an early appearance, and they also offer an SMS poll on responses to the debate.

GhostWhoVotes tweets that Newspoll’s second weekly (I presume) poll for the campaign has the Coalition lead at 52-48, unchanged on last week. However, Labor is down two (to 35%) and the Coalition up two (to 46%) on the primary vote, with a two point increase for the Greens to 11% allowing the two-party vote to remain stable, presumably with help from rounding. Tony Abbott’s numbers continue to improve, his personal ratings now almost equal with Kevin Rudd’s. He is up four points on approval to 38% and down four on disapproval to 52%, while Kevin Rudd is up one apiece to 39% and 48%. Rudd’s lead as preferred prime minister has narrowed from 47-33 to 46-37.

UPDATE: And now the weekly Morgan multi-mode poll, which normally comes out on Monday afternoon, has made its appearance, and it’s well in line with all the other polling: Labor down 1.5% to 36.5%, and both the Coalition and the Greens up a point to 44% and 10.5%. That pans out to a 51.5-48.5 lead to the Coalition on two-party preferred using 2010 election preferences, but a stronger 50-50 result for Labor on respondent-allocated preferences. State breakdowns are featured, and they interestingly show a five-point shift to Labor on two-party preferred in Queensland.

Morgan also got 1200 responses to an SMS poll conducted this evening on reaction to the debate, which is probably the most reliable data we have on this. It shows an effective dead heat with Kevin Rudd rated the winner by 24%, Tony Abbott favoured by 23%, 5% calling it a draw, and 48% granted that they hadn’t watched (non-watchers presumably also having tended to be non-respondents).

BludgerTrack has been updated with the Newspoll result but not the Morgan. I’ll follow up on that tomorrow after Essential Research comes out (UPDATE: Essential Research will not be out until tomorrow, so I’ve updated BludgerTrack without it).

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2129 comments

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don
Guest

imacca@2108

And before the spelling Nazi’s descend, in my 2102 i did mean troupe, not troop.

#Nazis

1934pc
Guest

“”At least this campaign, compared to the last, their costings are an issue””

Don’t trust them, they will try to pull that one again!.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WgjGWYZSVUA

Strong UnionsStrongCountry
Guest
Strong UnionsStrongCountry

Meguire Bob

Posted Tuesday, August 13, 2013 at 2:30 pm | Permalink

AussieAchmed
Posted Tuesday, August 13, 2013 at 2:28 pm | PERMALINK

Colon will be upset. When in WA Abbott said he would model himself on Barnett.

Abbott – the multi-model personalities

—————–
So Will Campbell ,When in QLD Abbott said he would model himself on Newman
——————————————————-

will the real tony abbott please stand up please stand up

This little black duck
Guest
This little black duck

Mr Abbott will model himself on another of his heroes: Campbell Newman. Tony is a Queenslander, after all.

Strong UnionsStrongCountry
Guest
Strong UnionsStrongCountry

mikehilliard

Posted Tuesday, August 13, 2013 at 2:21 pm | Permalink

sprocket – where do you get this stuff?

Photos show why there was so much raucous cheering, Abbott preaching to the converted, no sceptics allowed.
———————————————————

did he have notes?

or was he wearing an earpiece so Peta could keep reminding him to breath

StephenD
Guest

imacca:

And before the spelling Nazi’s descend, in my 2102 i did mean troupe, not troop.

You might have avoided the spelling Nazis, but the Apostrophe Police are running towards you with their Tasers out.

Meguire Bob
Guest

AussieAchmed
Posted Tuesday, August 13, 2013 at 2:28 pm | PERMALINK

Colon will be upset. When in WA Abbott said he would model himself on Barnett.

Abbott – the multi-model personalities

—————–
So Will Campbell ,When in QLD Abbott said he would model himself on Newman

guytaur
Guest

Well only needs Bolt to join the chorus

@michellegrattan: Heat on Coalition to stump up its costings http://t.co/HP9jG6NM4t via @ConversationEDU #auspol #ausvotes

Strong UnionsStrongCountry
Guest
Strong UnionsStrongCountry

zoidlord

Posted Tuesday, August 13, 2013 at 2:22 pm | Permalink

@davidwh/2103

It’s not that they are wrong or misleading, but rather what will Coalition Party do in the advent of winning the election.

Remember, Tony Abbott said that he is modeled himself on Jeff Kennett.
————————————————

Colon will be upset. When in WA Abbott said he would model himself on Barnett.

Abbott – the multi-model personalities

Strong UnionsStrongCountry
Guest
Strong UnionsStrongCountry

PEFO increases the CT and MRRT by that amount, of course Joe doesn’t want the money.

or the $5 billion in business tax cuts. hahaha

what a crock of shite!

We will cut company tax 1.5%…then introduce a levy of 1.5%

I was never good at maths but that looks dodgy even to me

Andrew
Guest

zoidlord the Kennett reference i think was a major error. I hope the ALP runs ads in Victoria about it

imacca
Guest

[Laura needs to have a word with her editor.

A baseball bat may assist her argument.]

LoL!

I once watched Penny Wong in Senate Estimates trying to explain things in simple words to Bernardi and Joyce. I emailed her and suggested that she may feel better if she takes a taser or cattle prod with her next time next time.

More fun, and less blood than a baseball bat. 🙂

Andrew
Guest

Has Costello been asked what he thinks of the coalition, for the second successive election, not complying with his charter?

Andrew
Guest

Sean is kind of right. The coalition will be allowed by the OM to get away with not releasing full costings.

Tingle should renew her attack. I wonder whether she will?

zoidlord
Guest

@davidwh/2103

It’s not that they are wrong or misleading, but rather what will Coalition Party do in the advent of winning the election.

Remember, Tony Abbott said that he is modeled himself on Jeff Kennett.

This little black duck
Guest
This little black duck

davidwh@2103

Why are you all calling for costings you already know are wrong, misleading and full of black holes?

Because we want one point of reference for the two sides. Only way to a fair comparison.

ruawake
Guest

If Hockey had done his costings on the Economic Statement and not PEFO he would have had an extra $800 million to play with.

PEFO increases the CT and MRRT by that amount, of course Joe doesn’t want the money.

Strong UnionsStrongCountry
Guest
Strong UnionsStrongCountry
Sean believes that Abbott should ditch Costello’s Charter of Budget Honesty. Liberals even dumping Liberal initiated reform CHARTER OF BUDGET HONESTY THE HONOURABLE PETER COSTELLO, M.P., During the caretaker period the legislation will allow both the Prime Minister and the Leader of the Opposition to request that costings of their announced policies be prepared by the Secretaries to the Department of the Treasury and the Department of Finance. Requests may only be made by the Prime Minister or Leader of the Opposition with respect to his or her own party’s policies. The availability and public release, on request, of independent… Read more »
mikehilliard
Guest

sprocket – where do you get this stuff?

Photos show why there was so much raucous cheering, Abbott preaching to the converted, no sceptics allowed.

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