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Federal Election 2013

Aug 13, 2013

Essential Research: 51-49 to Coalition

Slightly better news for Labor from Essential Research, which records essentially no change on last week and has Kevin Rudd maintaining a solid lead as preferred prime minister.

Essential Research’s weekly rolling average bucks the trend just slightly in having Labor up a point on the primary vote to 39%, although the point comes at the expense of the Greens who are down one to 8%, with the Coalition steady on 43%. Two-party preferred is unchanged at 51-49. Tony Abbott’s personal ratings have also failed to improve, contrary to other recent polling, his approval down two to 37% and disapproval steady at 51%. Kevin Rudd’s ratings tell a more familiar story however, his approval down five to 45% and disapproval up eight to 43%. Rudd’s lead as preferred prime minister is down only slightly, from 50-35 to 47-35.

As it occasionally does, Essential poses a question more concerned with measuring knowledge in opinion: in this case, 25% think Australia’s national debt is higher compared to other developed countries while 46% say it’s lower, with Coalition voters about evenly divided. Forty-eight per cent rate reducing debt more important than maintaining spending on services and projects against 40% who think the opposite. Forty-five per cent would prefer the government cut spending to reduce debt against only 6% who would prefer taxes be raised, with 21% opting for both and 18% for neither. Foreign aid, the arts, subsidies for business and private schools top the list of preferred targets for cuts, with roads, public schools, pensions and health at the bottom.

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855 comments

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mari
Guest
OMG just come home about to go out again is it safe to venture onto PB? Looks like all the LNP drones have finally gone to sleep although havn’t see River yet 😀 mayby the Workchoice serf rates wern’t enough to keep him? at Menzies House? BTW The stitching on my bag has just come apart after a lot of good service, had anyone heard of Carlton or Tripp bags seems I can get good deals on both of them, but can’t find comparisons like I can in Oz over here so any info wold be appreciated for when I… Read more »
zoidlord
Guest

@Kevin/852

Ah ok Thanks for that.

Kevin Bonham
Guest
zoidlord@851 @Kevin/850 Is it because it was commissioned for Green’s Party that it is ‘dodgy’? What is the current PV for Bandts? Not just the commissioning, but the wording of questions has not been released publicly. Plus there were reports of a poll being conducted without party names listed (only candidates) at the same time, that was attributed to Galaxy. I have no idea what Bandt’s current PV is because there have only been internal polls, nothing public. The Labor one said he was on 33.9 and the Green one 48. The former seems more consistent with the general decline… Read more »
zoidlord
Guest

@Kevin/850

Is it because it was commissioned for Green’s Party that it is ‘dodgy’?

What is the current PV for Bandts?

Kevin Bonham
Guest

lefty e@848

Cud chewer, I heard that Bandts PV was getting large of late, but it was second hand and I really couldn’t vouch for the info.

Possibly derived from the Greens’ dodgy Galaxy. There might be other evidence out there though.

cud chewer
Guest
lefty e
Guest

Cud chewer, I heard that Bandts PV was getting large of late, but it was second hand and I really couldn’t vouch for the info.

imacca
Guest

[another hung parliament sounds like the best possible outcome for this election.]

If Oakeshott and Windsor were still contenders i’d agree, but with them out of it, i’m not so sure. I think when the history of this parliament gets written they will get a lot of the credit, along with Gillard, for making the hung parliament work, as it did very well.

lefty e
Guest

There’s a very good case that if Labor has principles it would go near the LNP with a barge pole Mick.

But of course since electoral pragmatics rule out preferencing the LNP anyway, we needn’t go into it.

imacca
Guest
[IMO this is an important and very principled stand and it means that Greens are wiped out in HoR.] In that it will mainly appeal to the small terminally grumpy true disbeliever demographic who were already going to vote Coalition (since they are sure that :monkey: is actually lying about Direct Inaction), who cares?? You have to remember that while the Greens annoy many ALP voters (particularly here 🙂 )they are a lot less fruitcake like than the current Coalition (BB Bernardi anyone??) and anyway, why would the ALP want to annoy the roughly 70% of Greens voters who usually… Read more »
Player One
Guest
[Seems to me its just another expression of the “we have this in the bag” attitude, much like his blatherings on not leading a Govt in a hung parliament. ] More likely Abbott (or Credlin) knows how stupid his willingness to “sell his arse” made him look last time, and also how it demonstrated his complete inability to negotiate, even from a position of strength. No way does he want that to happen again. He’d probably rather lose outright. From my perspective, another hung parliament sounds like the best possible outcome for this election. No way either Abbott would be… Read more »
Mick77
Guest

CC
It’s reported that Abbott tomorrow will announce that Greens will be preferenced below Labor everywhere. IMO this is an important and very principled stand and it means that Greens are wiped out in HoR. Better a Labor member than a watermelon. If Labor has principles it will also put Greens below the Libs.

geoffrey
Guest

Seems to me its just another expression of the “we have this in the bag” attitude, much like his blatherings on not leading a Govt in a hung parliament.

Then he was basically saying he had no respect for the electorates choice (properly made at a free and fair election) unless they chose him. That sort of disrespect for the voter annoys me.

—–

indeed. and its been like this for a very long time the patronising ex catholic dark angel (no insults to other good souls)

Player One
Guest

[ I mean the whole of the PB site tonight drove home this point to me. ]

But again you seem to have missed it. You’re either a hopeless case or you are being deliberately obtuse.

geoffrey
Guest

ah tomorrow springs promises of the unhinging. slow and steady wins … and at end of day that is what the great public want for a change. not a braying untamed unpedigreed prancer

imacca
Guest
[Its not in the interests of the ALP to preference the LNP, so that wont be happening Mick. Check AEC on how Senators get elected.] True. :monkey: may regret going hard on the Greens at this stage of the campaign. It will appeal to people who were already going to vote LNP sure, but they aren’t the people he needs to appeal to. Now that :monkey: has shown his cards on this ALP now has much latitude to do as they will with preferences to their best electoral advantage. 🙂 Seems to me its just another expression of the “we… Read more »
cud chewer
Guest

lefty I read somewhere recently that the polls say Labor is ahead of Bandt on PV. So it basically boils down to where the Libs preferences flow and I can’t imagine them preferencing Green. If you have better info please share.

Kevin Bonham
Guest

Mick77@805

Kevin

Fix the date in brackets at start of today’s blog from 6 Aug! I posted this before but you or William didn’t notice.

Ta. Got that one. Also had the date wrong at the top and fixed that too.

Quite a lot of my articles have typos. My partner catches them usually.

crikey whitey
Guest

Player One.

The lovely donor is aware of our efforts.

Well done.

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