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Federal Election 2013

Aug 17, 2013

Galaxy: 52-48 to Coalition; ReachTEL Victorian marginals polling

The first substantial national-level poll in nearly week gives the Coalition an election-winning lead, but fails to corroborate the bloodbath that yesterday's automated polls were pointing to.

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At last, an actual national poll – and it’s not quite the train wreck for Labor that yesterday’s marginals polling might have had them bracing for. The Coalition has an election-winning lead, the outer edge of the error margin notwithstanding, but it’s of the relatively modest order of 52-48, compared with 51-49 in last week’s poll. Labor is down two points on the primary vote to 36%, with the Coalition steady on 45%. The poll also gauges opinion on the Coalition’s plan to abolish the school kids’ bonus, and which party has the better parental leave scheme. Both results are consistent with the usual pattern of poll respondents supporting spending and opposing taxing (company levies evidently notwithstanding), with 47% opposing the school kids’ bonus abolition against 38% supporting, and the more extravagant Coalition parental leave scheme favoured over Labor’s 44% to 36%.

GhostWhoVotes also relays a series of electorate-level ReachTEL results from well-chosen Victorian seats, which I presume have been commissioned by the Sunday Herald Sun. In turn:

• The Liberals lead in Labor’s two most marginal seats in the state, by 53-47 in Deakin and 56-44 in Corangamite. In the most marginal Liberal seat of Aston, the Liberals are found to be well ahead at 63.4-36.6.

• A long-overdue result for Melbourne suggests Adam Bandt’s primary vote will not be high enough to survive the looming flood of Liberal preferences to Labor. Bandt is on 33.5% against 33.8% for Labor candidate Cath Bowtell.

• A result for Indi suggests Sophie Mirabella indeed has a fight on her hands from independent Cathy McGowan, as media chatter has increasingly indicated. Mirabella leads McGowan 43.5% to 23.3% on the primary vote, but McGowan would presumably benefit from a very tight flow of Labor and Greens preferences. (UPDATE: It turns out this doesn’t exclude 7.1% decided, so it should be more like 47% Mirabella to 25% McGowan, which would get Mirabella home).

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1633 comments

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bemused
Guest

confessions@1484

I think Jason Clare would probably make a good leader of the ALP


I reckon his time is coming, just not yet.

Electing another woman as leader would be a good eff you to those who so cruelly vilified Gillard, but I can’t see it happening.

Only in your deluded world where everything is seen through the prism of gender.

Fran Barlow
Guest
Centre [Howard went for 11 years, Fraser for 8 years, Abbott minimum 6 could go 9, hell maybe 12] After THLV won in 2007, some said that the next Liberal PM was yet to be born. That was a mistake. Doing the same thing with colours reversed? Equally so. An Abbott regime will lack the administrative and political integrity to rule effectively. They have done no work on policy and are basically rock throwers. That’s not going to fly for 3 years now that rock throwing is an approved activity in politics. I don’t see why you’re whinng anyway. It’s… Read more »
bemused
Guest

Simon Baker@1482

Mick77 – Gillard was more popular with the ALP faithfull than Rudd, just as Abbott is more popular with the Liberal faithful than Turnbull, but both Rudd and Turnbull are more popular with the public as a whole. It was also Rudd who got the ALP into power, Beazley had lost 2 elections and Crean polled poorly.

I would dispute that Gillard was more popular with the ALP faithful.

There were certainly some polls which did not show this and in any event, the incumbent will usually have an advantage which would have favoured her.

Utopia
Guest

How that is not 45-55 is beyond me!

Henry
Guest

Thanks to Kevin Bonham for that lateline 1993 link, two days before that election. Just finished watching it.
Fascinating. Of the pundits on the panel Alan Ramsey and Rod Cameron both called it a clear win for the coalition, whilst Hugh MacKay said it was too close to call, as the undecideds was very high.
Interestingly there was not one mention of Hewson’s birthday cake moment with Mike Willessee. Perhaps that was an episode whose influence has proven greater in the re-telling.

James J
Guest

Rudd: Satisified 35, Dissatisfied 54
Abbott: Satisified 41, Dissatisfied 51
PPM: Rudd 43, Abbott 41

Simon Baker
Guest

But Keating won with a 46% Newspoll, so it is still not over yet, the attack ads on cuts and Wednesday’s debate need to have some impact though

wal kolla
Guest

LNP 47? O_o

Centre
Guest

Leadershit, leadershit, leadershit.

The voters are taking their cricket bats into the voting booths.

morpheus
Guest

lefty e @1616

Essential will show you the mood 2 weeks ago. The mood now will be shown the week of the election.

zoidlord
Guest

@morpheus

If they really did that ask that question of course.

Edwina StJohn
Guest

Game Over !

wal kolla
Guest

[#Newspoll 2 Party Preferred: ALP 46 (-2) L/NP 54 (+2) #ausvotes]

Thought so.

I still think the election will be around 45-55 barring a miracle. I wonder if Rudd is writing his condolence speech?

Simon Baker
Guest

ALP 34 LNP 47 GRN 9 2PP LNP 54 ALP 46

Centre
Guest

Again, the polls playing catch ups to the betting 😎

Andrew
Guest

I can certainly see with the gaffe-a-day week Abbott had last week why his stocks are rising. Good one

lefty e
Guest

Newspoll 54-46.

Nasty one.

bring on Essential.

zoidlord
Guest

GhostWhoVotes ‏@GhostWhoVotes 35s

#Newspoll Primary Votes: ALP 34 (-1) L/NP 47 (+1) GRN 9 (-2) #ausvotes

Centre
Guest

I think Newspoll is the most accurate.

I rate them:

1. Newspoll
2. Galaxy
3. Neilsen
4. Essential
5. Reachtel
6. Morgan

Although I’d bet that the Morgan phone poll gets it closest the night before the election.

lefty e
Guest

[I’m not surprised by this result. I warmed to Gillard for the first time the moment that Rudd returned and obviously I’m not Robinson Crusoe, but hell, what mischief. Seems like event the pollsters hate Rudd.]

Im surprised you think its an actual result, Mick.

zoidlord
Guest

GhostWhoVotes ‏@GhostWhoVotes 39s

#Newspoll 2 Party Preferred: ALP 46 (-2) L/NP 54 (+2) #ausvotes

Simon Baker
Guest

Mick77 – There is NO change for Gillard’s rating, every poll before she was ousted showed ALP voters preferred Gillard to Rudd, swing voters Rudd to Gillard. What is the point of having 43% of ALP voters fervent supporters if you cannot get to the 46-48% Rudd is now getting even with a dip in polling?

morpheus
Guest

zoidlord

“I’m not going to trust Newspoll anymore”

That is definitely sig-worthy. Especially the ANYMORE.

Edwina StJohn
Guest

If you seek revenge first dig two graves

Rational Leftist
Guest

I think the priorities of an ALP opposition will be as follows:

1. Uniting and regrouping as quickly as possible.
2. Structural reform (including some of the reforms suggested by Rudd)
3. Making sure Abbott never takes off as PM.

Achieve those, then you can think about a leader who can get elected as PM (which, as is evidenced by Abbott) is a lot more than you think.

Mick77
Guest

Based on her renewed popularity vis-a-vis Rudd, Julia just increased the champagne order for her election night party. Oh how sweet is revenge? Just ask Rudd.

I’m not surprised by this result. I warmed to Gillard for the first time the moment that Rudd returned and obviously I’m not Robinson Crusoe, but hell, what mischief. Seems like event the pollsters hate Rudd.

Kevin Bonham
Guest

Well said lefty e.

Perusal of #Newspoll is only recommended if you’ve got a water cannon with which to spray some chemical that dissolves all the tinfoil hats said # attracts.

Simon Baker
Guest

Sprockett – Just ALP voters so irrelevant, as I said they always preferred Gillard, swing voters preferred Rudd.

Kevin – Will also have to see if the ALP attack ads and the Rudd v Abbott town hall on Wednesday have an impact

confessions
Guest

[Wouldn’t the Rodent hate the Monkey surpassing his time in office]

He’d hate it even more if it was someone like Turnbull.

Centre
Guest

Wouldn’t the Rodent hate the Monkey surpassing his time in office 😆

Rational Leftist
Guest

It all really depends on the aftermath of the election, doesn’t it?

Andrew
Guest

Tony Abbott is the only reason you couldn’t write off Labor totally. But he would have to do something pretty stupid.

lefty e
Guest

Yes, and obviously ‘1995Jacko’ is a highly placed figure privy to advance Newspoll data, before Ghost Who Votes.

As opposed to any old jackass jerking off on twitter.

zoidlord
Guest

I’m not going to trust Newspoll anymore, such bullshit wanting to push the agenda when it doesn’t suit them.

Centre
Guest

Howard went for 11 years, Fraser for 8 years, Abbott minimum 6 could go 9, hell maybe 12 🙁

Kevin Bonham
Guest
gloryconsequence@1582 Kevin – come on mate. You’re better than that. I’d like to know how a primary of 34 and approval slipping is going to be turned in to a 39+ primary by election day. I’d wait and see if other pollsters are getting the same before assuming that is really the picture. We have had a pretty benign Galaxy, but it is not unusual lately for Galaxy to be benign just before a shift. If we do get widespread 53s-54s this week it will be pretty much over. As it is I think the government’s chance is slim but… Read more »
Rational Leftist
Guest

[Who do you like for next Labor leader?]

Dick Adams’ beard 😛

Seriously though, a uniter. I’d rather a boring Beazley type who can get the party to get its shit together ASAP. I’d take Albo for that role, TBH. (No, I don’t think he’d get elected PM).

Who do I think they will go with? Either Shorten or Bowen. Both of whom do have factional support and charisma and see themselves as PM material but it won’t be what the party needs after a loss.

Andrew
Guest

What about preferred Liberal leader, Abbott or Howard?

Andrew
Guest

This is not just about Murdoch and the NBN. Its about the OM fighting for its survival. Looks like it wins this round

Centre
Guest

How about preferred Labor leader, Rudd or Whitlam?

confessions
Guest

Australia’s media: unelected swill.

Andrew
Guest

Paul Howes WTF?

zoidlord
Guest

@sprocket_/1586

HAHAHAHAH so they did ask the question!

AGENDA PUSHING.

Centre
Guest

Well when the Liberals have won back government, they have usually bolted in.

1996 and 1975, so this may not be too different.

Andrew
Guest

so they have asked the JG question, Pure mischief making. Ridiculous

Andrew
Guest

yes confessions, cos the OM havent been blatantly agenda-pushing for the past how many years

sprocket_
Guest

[Messiah Rudd ‏@Messiah_Rudd 11m
RT @1995Jacko: Preferred Labor leader (ALP voters) #Newspoll

Julia Gillard 48%
Kevin Rudd 32%
Paul Howes 20%]

Dr Fumbles McStupid
Guest

@Kevin Bonham

I just remember the steady drop for the Coalition in 1992-3 and Keating playing the long game and playing it well.

confessions
Guest

[Anything to cause controversial fodder.]

But even still, it’d be pretty blatant agenda pushing.

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