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Federal Election 2013

Aug 18, 2013

Below is an attempt to unravel the Senate preference tickets which were released today, which will be progressively added to as I work my way through each state. The idea is to boil down each preference ticket to its essence by removing parties I consider to have effectively no chance of winning seats (though with preference harvesting you can never entirely know), and to consider only the third major party candidates since in normal circumstances the first two are elected immediately and the fourth don’t stand a realistic chance. Note that parties are allowed to submit three preference tickets and have their votes divide evenly between each, which means there are occasions noted in italics where explanation is required as to how they will divide.

NEW SOUTH WALES

Liberal Democrats: One Nation; Sex Party; Wikileaks; Katter’s Australian Party; Palmer United Party; Family First; Democrats; Coalition; Shooters & Fishers; Christian Democrats; Labor; Greens.

No Carbon Tax Climate Sceptics: Shooters & Fishers; One Nation; Christian Democrats; Family First; Sex Party; Wikileaks; Liberal Democrats; Katter’s Australian Party; Palmer United Party; Democrats; Labor; Coalition; Greens.

Democratic Labour Party: One Nation; Christian Democrats; Katter’s Australian Party; Liberal Democrats; Family First; Palmer United Party; Shooters & Fishers; Labor; Coalition; Wikileaks; Democrats; Sex Party; Greens.

Senator Online (Internet Voting Bills/Issues): Shooters & Fishers; One Nation; Sex Party; Family First; Democrats; Wikileaks; Christian Democrats; Palmer United Party; Katter’s Australian Party; Liberal Democrats; Labor; Coalition; Greens.

Voluntary Euthanasia Party: Sex Party; Democrats; Wikileaks; Greens; One Nation; Liberal Democrats; Palmer United Party; Katter’s Australian Party; Shooters & Fishers; Family First; Labor; Coalition; Christian Democrats.

Group F (Andrew Whalan): Democrats; Labor; Coalition; Greens; Wikileaks; Palmer United Party; Katter’s Australian Party; Liberal Democrats; Christian Democrats; Shooters & Fishers; Family First; Sex Party; One Nation.

Help End Marijuana Prohibition (HEMP) Party: Democrats; Wikileaks; Sex Party; Liberal Democrats; Katter’s Australian Party; two-third Greens, Labor; one-third Labor, Greens; Shooters & Fishers; two-third One Nation, Family First; one-third Family First, One Nation; Family First; Palmer United Party; Coalition; Christian Democrats.

Carers Alliance: Democrats; Coalition; Wikileaks; One Nation; Christian Democrats; Family First; Labor; Shooters & Fishers; Palmer United Party; Katter’s Australian Party; Liberal Democrats; Sex Party; Greens.

The Wikileaks Party: Sex Party; Democrats; Liberal Democrats; Shooters & Fishers; Greens; Labor; Family First; Coalition; Palmer United Party; Katter’s Australian Party; Christian Democrats; One Nation.

Rise Up Australia Party: One Nation; Christian Democrats; Family First; Shooters & Fishers; Coalition; Palmer United Party; Katter’s Australian Party; Democrats; Labor; Liberal Democrats; Wikileaks; Sex Party; Greens.

Future Party: Wikileaks; Sex Party; Democrats; Greens; Liberal Democrats; Labor; Coalition; Palmer United Party; Shooters & Fishers; Katter’s Australian Party; Family First; Christian Democrats; One Nation.

Christian Democratic Party (Fred Nile Group): Christian Democrats; Shooters & Fishers; Katter’s Australian Party; One Nation; Family First; Palmer United Party; Coalition; Labor; Democrats; Wikileaks; Liberal Democrats; Sex Party; Greens.

Labor: Greens; Shooters & Fishers; Wikileaks; Katter’s Australian Party; Liberal Democrats; Sex Party; Democrats; Family First; Christian Democrats; Palmer United Party; Coalition; One Nation.

Katter’s Australian Party: One Nation; Liberal Democrats; Christian Democrats; Palmer United Party; Wikileaks; Shooters & Fishers; Family First; Democrats; Coalition; Labor; Greens; Sex Party.

Australian Voice: Shooters & Fishers; One Nation; Sex Party; Democrats; Family First; Christian Democrats; Wikileaks; Palmer United Party; Katter’s Australian Party; Liberal Democrats; Coalition; Labor; Greens.

Sex Party: Democrats; Liberal Democrats; Wikileaks; One Nation; Shooters & Fishers; Greens; Labor; Katter’s Australian Party; Palmer United Party; Coalition; Family First; Christian Democrats.

Australian Fishing and Lifestyle Party: Shooters & Fishers; One Nation; Christian Democrats; Family First; Democrats; Sex Party; Katter’s Australian Party; Liberal Democrats; Palmer United Party; Labor; Coalition; Wikileaks; Greens.

Greens: Wikileaks; Democrats; Sex Party; Labor; Palmer United Party; Katter’s Australian Party; Coalition; Liberal Democrats; Family First; Christian Democrats; Shooters & Fishers; One Nation.

Palmer United Party: Family First; Democrats; Coalition; Liberal Democrats; Wikileaks; Christian Democrats; Sex Party; Katter’s Australian Party; Greens; One Nation; Shooters & Fishers; Labor.

Building Australia Party: Democrats; Christian Democrats; Sex Party; Family First; Shooters & Fishers; One Nation; Wikileaks; Katter’s Australian Party; Palmer United Party; Liberal Democrats; Coalition; Labor; Greens.

Uniting Australia Party: Christian Democrats; Shooters & Fishers; Wikileaks; Sex Party; Democrats; Family First; Liberal Democrats; Katter’s Australian Party; Coalition; Labor; Greens; Palmer United Party; One Nation.

Stop The Greens: Liberal Democrats; One Nation; Sex Party; Wikileaks; Katter’s Australian Party; Palmer United Party; Family First; Democrats; Coalition; Shooters & Fishers; Christian Democrats; Labor; Greens.

Smokers Rights: Liberal Democrats; One Nation; Sex Party; Wikileaks; Katter’s Australian Party; Palmer United Party; Family First; Democrats; Coalition; Shooters & Fishers; Christian Democrats; Labor; Greens.

Bullet Train For Australia: Democrats; Sex Party; Wikileaks; Shooters & Fishers; Family First; Christian Democrats; Liberal Democrats; Katter’s Australian Party; Palmer United Party; Greens; Labor; Coalition; One Nation.

Liberal: Christian Democrats; Shooters & Fishers; Family First; Palmer United Party; Katter’s Australian Party; Liberal Democrats; Democrats; Sex Party; Labor; Wikileaks; Greens; One Nation.

Australian Protectionist Party: Katter’s Australian Party; One Nation; Shooters & Fishers; Family First; Palmer United Party; Christian Democrats; Democrats; Wikileaks; Liberal Democrats; Sex Party; Coalition; Labor; Greens.

Animal Justice Party: Democrats; Sex Party; Family First; Wikileaks; One Nation; Christian Democrats; Palmer United Party; Liberal Democrats; Greens; Labor; Coalition; Katter’s Australian Party; Shooters & Fishers.

Australia First Party: Family First; Democrats; Shooters & Fishers; One Nation; Wikileaks; Sex Party; Katter’s Australian Party; Palmer United Party; Liberal Democrats; Labor; Coalition; Christian Democrats; Greens.

Australian Independents: Shooters & Fishers; One Nation; Christian Democrats; Sex Party; Democrats; Family First; Wikileaks; Liberal Democrats; Katter’s Australian Party; Palmer United Party; Greens; Coalition; Labor.

Drug Law Reform: Democrats; Sex Party; Liberal Democrats; Wikileaks; Greens; Labor; Coalition; Katter’s Australian Party; Palmer United Party; Family First; Shooters & Fishers; Christian Democrats; One Nation.

Socialist Equality Party: Three completely different tickets lodged, apparently with the intention of conferring as little advantage as possible on any given party.

Australian Democrats: Katter’s Australian Party; Sex Party; Wikileaks; Greens; Palmer United Party; half Labor, half Coalition; Christian Democrats; Family First; One Nation; Shooters & Fishers; Liberal Democrats.

Group AG (Tom Wang): Palmer United Party; Labor; Coalition; Democrats; Greens; Wikileaks; Liberal Democrats; Sex Party; Katter’s Australian Party; Shooters & Fishers; Family First; Christian Democrats; One Nation.

Family First Party: Shooters & Fishers; One Nation; Democrats; Katter’s Australian Party; Liberal Democrats; Christian Democrats; Palmer United Party; Wikileaks; Coalition; Labor; Greens; Sex Party.

Stable Population Party: Democrats; Sex Party; Family First; Wikileaks; One Nation; Katter’s Australian Party; Christian Democrats; Liberal Democrats; one-third Greens, Labor, Coalition; one-third Labor, Greens, Coalition; one-third Coalition, Greens Labor; Shooters & Fishers; Palmer United Party.

Shooters and Fishers: One Nation; Christian Democrats; Family First; Democrats; Sex Party; Katter’s Australian Party; Liberal Democrats; Palmer United Party; Labor; Coalition; Wikileaks; Greens.

Stop CSG: Wikileaks; Democrats; Sex Party; Family First; Greens; Katter’s Australian Party; Labor; Palmer United Party; Christian Democrats; Coalition; One Nation; Liberal Democrats; Shooters & Fishers.

The Australian Republicans: Liberal Democrats; Sex Party; Democrats; Coalition; Wikileaks; Greens; Labor; Katter’s Australian Party; Palmer United Party; One Nation; Family First; Christian Democrats; Shooters & Fishers.

Socialist Alliance: Greens; Wikileaks; Sex Party; Labor; Democrats; Coalition; Katter’s Australian Party; Palmer United Party; Liberal Democrats; Shooters & Fishers; Christian Democrats; Family First; One Nation.

Non-Custodial Parents Party (Equal Parenting): One Nation; Wikileaks; Family First; Christian Democrats; Shooters & Fishers; Liberal Democrats; Palmer United Party; Katter’s Australian Party; Coalition; Democrats; Sex Party; Labor; Greens.

Pirate Party: Greens; Wikileaks; Democrats; Sex Party; Liberal Democrats; Labor; Shooters & Fishers; Coalition; Katter’s Australian Party; Palmer United Party; Christian Democrats; Family First; One Nation.

Secular Party of Australia: Democrats; Sex Party; Wikileaks; Greens; Liberal Democrats; Labor; Coalition; Palmer United Party; Katter’s Australian Party; Shooters & Fishers; One Nation; Family First; Christian Democrats.

Australian Motoring Enthusiast Party: One Nation; Shooters & Fishers; Family First; Sex Party; Democrats; Wikileaks; Liberal Democrats; Katter’s Australian Party; Palmer United Party; Coalition; Labor; Greens; Christian Democrats.

One Nation: Katter’s Australian Party; Christian Democrats; Family First; Shooters & Fishers; Liberal Democrats; Sex Party; Palmer United Party; Democrats; Wikileaks; half Coalition, half Labor; Greens.

VICTORIA

Rise Up Australia: DLP; Australian Christians; Family First; Shooters & Fishers; Coalition; Palmer United Party; Katter’s Australian Party; Democrats; Labor; Wikileaks; Sex Party; Greens.

Senator Online: Australian Christians; Family First; Sex Party; Shooters & Fishers; Wikileaks; Democrats; DLP; Katter’s Australian Party; Palmer United Party; Greens; Labor; Coalition.

Coalition: half Family First, half DLP; Australian Christians; Shooters & Fishers; Katter’s Australian Party; Palmer United Party; Sex Party; Democrats; Labor; Wikileaks; Greens.

Help End Marijuana Prohibition: Democrats; Sex Party; Wikileaks; Katter’s Australian Party; two-thirds Labor, one-third Greens; Family First; Shooters & Fishers; DLP; Palmer United Party; Coalition; Australian Christians.

Family First: Australian Christians; Shooters & Fishers; Democrats; DLP; Wikileaks; Katter’s Australian Party; Palmer United Party; Coalition; Labor; Greens; Sex Party.

Country Alliance: Katter’s Australian Party; Sex Party; DLP; Coalition; Shooters & Fishers; Labor; Australian Christians; Palmer United Party; Family First; Democrats; Wikileaks; Greens.

Secular Party: Democrats; Sex Party; Wikileaks; Greens; Labor; Coalition; Palmer United Party; Katter’s Australian Party; Shooters & Fishers; DLP; Family First; Australian Christians.

No Carbon Tax Climate Sceptics: DLP; Family First; Australian Christians; Sex Party; Shooters & Fishers; Wikileaks; Katter’s Australian Party; Palmer United Party; Democrats; Labor; Coalition; Greens.

Bank Reform Party: Australian Christians; Shooters & Fishers; Family First; Sex Party; Democrats; Wikileaks; DLP; Katter’s Australian Party; Palmer United Party; Labor; Coalition; Greens.

Stable Population Party: Democrats; Family First; Sex Party; Australian Christians; Wikileaks; Palmer United Party; Katter’s Australian Party; one-third Greens, Labor, Coalition; one-third Labor, Coalition, Greens; one-third Coalition, Greens, Labor; DLP; Shooters & Fishers.

Australian Fishing & Lifestyle Party: Family First; Australian Christians; Shooters & Fishers; Sex Party; DLP; Democrats; Katter’s Australian Party; Palmer United Party; Coalition; Labor; Wikileaks; Greens.

Shooters & Fishers: Family First; Australian Christians; Sex Party; DLP; Democrats; Katter’s Australian Party; Palmer United Party; Coalition; Labor; Wikileaks; Greens.

Building Australia Party: Democrats; Family First; Wikileaks; Sex Party; Shooters & Fishers; Australian Christians; DLP; Katter’s Australian Party; Palmer United Party; Coalition; Labor; Greens.

Australian Voice Party: Sex Party; Wikileaks; Family First; Australian Christians; Democrats; Shooters & Fishers; Katter’s Australian Party; DLP; Palmer United Party; Coalition; Labor; Greens.

Australian Independents: Democrats; Australian Christians; Family First; DLP; Sex Party; Wikileaks; Shooters & Fishers; Katter’s Australian Party; Palmer United Party; Greens; Coalition; Labor.

Greens: Wikileaks; Sex Party; Democrats; Labor; Palmer United Party; Katter’s Australian Party; Family First; Coalition; DLP; Shooters & Fishers; Australian Christians.

Group T (Joseph Toscano): Wikileaks; Greens; Labor; Democrats; Katter’s Australian Party; Sex Party; Coalition; Australian Christians; DLP; Shooters & Fishers; Palmer United Party; Family First.

Stop CSG: Democrats; Sex Party; Family First; Wikileaks; Greens; Labor; Katter’s Australian Party; Australian Christians; Palmer United Party; Coalition; Shooters & Fishers; DLP.

Katter’s Australian Party: DLP; Australian Christians; Palmer United Party; Family First; Shooters & Fishers; Wikileaks; Coalition; Labor; Democrats; Greens; Sex Party.

Palmer United Party: Family First; Democrats; Australian Christians; Greens; Coalition; Wikileaks; Sex Party; Katter’s Australian Party; Shooters & Fishers; Labor; DLP.

Animal Justice Party: Democrats; Wikileaks; Sex Party; Family First; Katter’s Australian Party; Palmer United Party; DLP; Greens; Labor; Coalition; Australian Christians; Shooters & Fishers.

Australian Motoring Enthusiast Party: Family First; Shooters & Fishers; Sex Party; Democrats; Wikileaks; Katter’s Australian Party; Palmer United Party; DLP; Australian Christians; half Coalition, half Labor; Greens.

Wikileaks: Sex Party; Democrats; Greens; Labor; Coalition; Family First; Katter’s Australian Party; Palmer United Party; Australian Christians; Shooters & Fishers; DLP.

Australian Democrats: Sex Party; Family First; Wikileaks; Greens; Katter’s Australian Party; Palmer United Party; Australian Christians; half Labor, half Coalition; DLP; Shooters & Fishers.

Sex Party: Wikileaks; Democrats; Shooters & Fishers; Katter’s Australian Party; Labor; Greens; Coalition; Palmer United Party; DLP; Australian Christians; Family First.

Labor: Greens; Sex Party; Democrats; Wikileaks; Shooters & Fishers; Katter’s Australian Party; Palmer United Party; Australian Christians; DLP; Family First; Coalition.

Drug Law Reform: Democrats; Sex Party; Wikileaks; Greens; half Coalition, half Labor; Family First; Shooters & Fishers; Katter’s Australian Party; Palmer United Party; Australian Christians; DLP.

Bullet Train for Australia: Democrats; Australian Christians; Sex Party; Family First; Shooters & Fishers; DLP; Katter’s Australian Party; Wikileaks; Palmer United Party; Labor; Greens; Coalition.

Australian Christians: Family First; DLP; Katter’s Australian Party; Shooters & Fishers; Coalition; Labor; Palmer United Party; Democrats; Wikileaks; Greens; Sex Party.

Citizens Electoral Council: Family First; DLP; Wikileaks; Katter’s Australian Party; Shooters & Fishers; Australian Christians; half Democrats, Labor, Coalition, Greens, Palmer United Party; half Palmer United Party, Coalition, Democrats, Labor, Greens; Sex Party.

Group AJ (Bob Nicholls): DLP; Katter’s Australian Party; Wikileaks; Greens; Democrats; Palmer United Party; Labor; Australian Christians; Shooters & Fishers; Sex Party; Coalition; Family First.

Socialist Equality Party: Three completely different tickets lodged, apparently with the intention of conferring as little advantage as possible on any given party.

Pirate Party: Democrats; Wikileaks; Greens; Sex Party; DLP; Labor; Shooters & Fishers; Coalition; Katter’s Australian Party; Palmer United Party; Australian Christians; Family First.

Democratic Labour Party: Australian Christians; Katter’s Australian Party; Family First; Palmer United Party; Shooters & Fishers; Coalition; Labor; Democrats; Wikileaks; Sex Party; Greens.

QUEENSLAND

Animal Justice Party: Democrats; Family First; One Nation; Liberal Democrats; Greens; Labor; Coalition; Palmer United Party; Australian Christians; Katter’s Australian Party; Shooters & Fishers.

Liberal National Party of Queensland: Australian Christians; Family First; Palmer United Party; Shooters & Fishers; Katter’s Australian Party; Liberal Democrats; Democrats; Labor; Greens; One Nation.

Group C (Peter Keioskie): Liberal Democrats; Australian Christians; Katter’s Australian Party; One Nation; Family First; Shooters & Fishers; Palmer United Party; Greens; Coalition; Democrats; Labor.

Australian Independents: One Nation; Democrats; Australian Christians; Family First; Shooters & Fishers; Liberal Democrats; Katter’s Australian Party; Greens; Coalition; Palmer United Party; Labor.

Help End Marijuana Prohibition (HEMP) Party: Democrats; Liberal Democrats; Katter’s Australian Party; Labor; Greens; Shooters & Fishers; One Nation; Family First; Palmer United Party; Coalition; Australian Christians.

Australian Voice: One Nation; Democrats; Australian Christians; Shooters & Fishers; Liberal Democrats; Family First; Palmer United Party; Coalition; Katter’s Australian Party; Labor; Greens.

Australian Labor Party: Katter’s Australian Party; Greens; Democrats; Australian Christians; Shooters & Fishers; Palmer United Party; Liberal Democrats; Family First; Coalition; One Nation.

One Nation: Family First; Liberal Democrats; Australian Christians; Katter’s Australian Party; Palmer United Party; Democrats; Shooters & Fishers; Greens; half Coalition, half Labor.

Australia First Party: Family First; Australian Christians; Democrats; Shooters & Fishers; One Nation; Katter’s Australian Party; Palmer United Party; Liberal Democrats; Labor; Coalition; Greens.

Socialist Equality Party: Three completely different tickets lodged, apparently with the intention of conferring as little advantage as possible on any given party.

Australian Protectionist Party: Katter’s Australian Party; Australian Christians; One Nation; Shooters & Fishers; Family First; Palmer United Party; Democrats; Liberal Democrats; Coalition; Labor; Greens.

Building Australia Party: Democrats; Australian Christians; Family First; Shooters & Fishers; One Nation; Katter’s Australian Party; Palmer United Party; Liberal Democrats; Coalition; Labor; Greens.

Senator Online (Internet Voting Bills/Issues): Australian Christians; Democrats; One Nation; Shooters & Fishers; Family First; Katter’s Australian Party; Liberal Democrats; Palmer United Party; Coalition; Greens; Labor.

Liberal Democrats: Katter’s Australian Party; Family First; Palmer United Party; One Nation; Democrats; Shooters & Fishers; Coalition; Labor; Australian Christians; Greens.

Stop The Greens: Liberal Democrats; Katter’s Australian Party; Family First; Palmer United Party; One Nation; Democrats; Shooters & Fishers; Coalition; Labor; Australian Christians; Greens.

Pirate Party: Democrats; Greens; Liberal Democrats; Labor; Coalition; Shooters & Fishers; Katter’s Australian Party; Palmer United Party; Australian Christians; Family First; One Nation.

Greens: Democrats; Labor; Liberal Democrats; Palmer United Party; Family First; Katter’s Australian Party; Coalition; One Nation; Australian Christians; Shooters & Fishers.

Stop CSG: Democrats; Family First; Greens; Katter’s Australian Party; Labor; Australian Christians; Palmer United Party; Coalition; One Nation; Liberal Democrats; Shooters & Fishers.

Stable Population Party: Democrats; Family First; One Nation; Australian Christians; Katter’s Australian Party; Liberal Democrats; one-third Greens, Labor, Coalition; one-third Labor, Coalition, Greens; one-third Coalition, Greens, Labor; Shooters & Fishers; Palmer United Party.

Australian Christians: Family First; One Nation; Shooters & Fishers; Palmer United Party; Coalition; Katter’s Australian Party; Labor; Liberal Democrats; Democrats; Greens.

Group U (Greg Rudd): Palmer United Party; Liberal Democrats; Greens; Katter’s Australian Party; Family First; Coalition; Shooters & Fishers; Labor; Australian Christians; Democrats; One Nation.

Katter’s Australian Party: One Nation; Australian Christians; Liberal Democrats; Family First; Palmer United Party; Shooters & Fishers; Democrats; Labor; Coalition; Greens.

The Australian Republicans: Liberal Democrats; Katter’s Australian Party; Family First; Palmer United Party; One Nation; Democrats; Shooters & Fishers; Coalition; Labor; Australian Christians; Greens.

Family First: One Nation; Australian Christians; Shooters & Fishers; Democrats; Liberal Democrats; Palmer United Party; Katter’s Australian Party; Coalition; Labor; Greens.

Australian Democrats: Katter’s Australian Party; Greens; Family First; Australian Christians; Shooters & Fishers; Palmer United Party; half Labor, half Coalition; Liberal Democrats; One Nation.

Democratic Labour Party (DLP): Australian Christians; One Nation; Katter’s Australian Party; Liberal Democrats; Family First; Shooters & Fishers; Coalition; Labor; Palmer United Party; Democrats; Greens.

Sex Party: Democrats; One Nation; Liberal Democrats; Greens; Katter’s Australian Party; Shooters & Fishers; Labor; Coalition; Palmer United Party; Australian Christians; Family First.

Shooters and Fishers: One Nation; Australian Christians; Family First; Democrats; Katter’s Australian Party; Liberal Democrats; Palmer United Party; Coalition; Labor; Greens.

Uniting Australia Party: Family First; Liberal Democrats; Australian Christians; Katter’s Australian Party; Coalition; Shooters & Fishers; Democrats; Labor; Greens; Palmer United Party; One Nation.

Rise Up Australia Party: One Nation; Australian Christians; Family First; Shooters & Fishers; Coalition; Palmer United Party; Katter’s Australian Party; Democrats; Labor; Liberal Democrats; Greens.

No Carbon Tax Climate Sceptics: Family First; One Nation; Australian Christians; Shooters & Fishers; Katter’s Australian Party; Liberal Democrats; Palmer United Party; Democrats; Coalition; Labor; Greens.

Australian Fishing and Lifestyle Party: Australian Christians; One Nation; Shooters & Fishers; Democrats; Coalition; Family First; Katter’s Australian Party; Palmer United Party; Liberal Democrats; Labor; Greens.

Palmer United Party: Family First; Greens; Katter’s Australian Party; Coalition; One Nation; Liberal Democrats; Democrats; Australian Christians; Shooters & Fishers; Labor.

Australian Motoring Enthusiast Party: One Nation; Shooters & Fishers; Family First; Democrats; Liberal Democrats; Katter’s Australian Party; Palmer United Party; Australian Christians; half Labor, half Coalition; Greens.

Smokers Rights: Liberal Democrats; Katter’s Australian Party; Family First; Palmer United Party; One Nation; Democrats; Shooters & Fishers; Coalition; Labor; Australian Christians; Greens.

Secular Party of Australia: Democrats; Greens; Liberal Democrats; Labor; Coalition; Palmer United Party; Katter’s Australian Party; Shooters & Fishers; One Nation; Family First; Australian Christians.

WESTERN AUSTRALIA

Wikileaks: Democrats; Nationals; Greens; Katter’s Australian Party; One Nation; Labor; Australian Christians; Liberal; Palmer United Party; Family First; Shooters & Fishers.

Nationals: Liberal; Wikileaks; Katter’s Australian Party; Palmer United Party; Family First; Shooters & Fishers; Australian Christians; Democrats; Labor; One Nation; Greens.

Greens: Wikileaks; Democrats; Labor; Family First; Palmer United Party; Katter’s Australian Party; Nationals; Liberal; Australian Christians; Shooters & Fishers; One Nation.

Stop The Greens: Wikileaks; Palmer United Party; Katter’s Australian Party; Family First; Nationals; Democrats; Liberal; Shooters & Fishers; Australian Christians; Labor; Greens; One Nation.

Stable Population Party: Democrats; Australian Christians; Wikileaks; Family First; Katter’s Australian Party; Palmer United Party; One Nation; one-third Greens, Labor, Liberal; one-third Labor, Greens, Liberal; one-third Liberal, Greens, Labor; Nationals; Shooters & Fishers.

Socialist Equality Party: Three completely different tickets lodged, apparently with the intention of conferring as little advantage as possible on any given party.

Smokers Rights: Wikileaks; Palmer United Party; Katter’s Australian Party; Family First; Nationals; Democrats; Liberal; Shooters & Fishers; Australian Christians; Labor; Greens; One Nation.

Shooters and Fishers: Australian Christians; Family First; Democrats; Katter’s Australian Party; Palmer United Party; Liberal; Nationals; Labor; Wikileaks; One Nation; Greens.

Sex Party: Wikileaks; Democrats; Shooters & Fishers; Greens; Labor; Katter’s Australian Party; Nationals; Liberal; Palmer United Party; One Nation; Australian Christians; Family First.

Secular Party of Australia: Democrats; Wikileaks; Greens; Labor; Nationals; Liberal; Palmer United Party; Katter’s Australian Party; Shooters & Fishers; One Nation; Family First; Australian Christians.

Rise Up Australia Party: Australian Christians; Family First; Shooters & Fishers; Liberal; Palmer United Party; Nationals; Katter’s Australian Party; Democrats; Labor; Wikileaks; Greens; One Nation.

Palmer United Party: Family First; Australian Christians; Katter’s Australian Party; Wikileaks; Democrats; Greens; Nationals; Liberal; One Nation; Shooters & Fishers; Labor.

No Carbon Tax Climate Sceptics: Australian Christians; Shooters & Fishers; Family First; Wikileaks; One Nation; Katter’s Australian Party; Palmer United Party; Nationals; Democrats; Liberal; Labor; Greens.

Liberal Democrats: Wikileaks; Palmer United Party; Katter’s Australian Party; Family First; Nationals; Democrats; Liberal; Shooters & Fishers; Australian Christians; Labor; Greens; One Nation.

Liberal: Nationals; Australian Christians; Shooters & Fishers; Family First; Palmer United Party; Katter’s Australian Party; Democrats; Labor; Wikileaks; Greens; One Nation.

Katter’s Australian Party: Palmer United Party; One Nation; Democrats; Wikileaks; Family First; Liberal; Nationals; Shooters & Fishers; Australian Christians; Greens; Labor.

Help End Marijuana Prohibition (HEMP) Party: Democrats; Wikileaks; Katter’s Australian Party; Greens; Labor; Shooters & Fishers; Family First; One Nation; Nationals; Palmer United Party; Liberal; Australian Christians.

Family First Party: Australian Christians; Shooters & Fishers; Democrats; Katter’s Australian Party; Wikileaks; Palmer United Party; Liberal; Nationals; Labor; Greens; One Nation.

Australian Voice Party: Shooters & Fishers; Family First; Wikileaks; Australian Christians; Democrats; One Nation; Palmer United Party; Katter’s Australian Party; Nationals; Liberal; Labor; Greens.

Australian Sports Party: Wikileaks; Katter’s Australian Party; Palmer United Party; Shooters & Fishers; Democrats; Family First; Australian Christians; Nationals; Liberal; Greens; Labor; One Nation.

Australian Motoring Enthusiast Party: Shooters & Fishers; Family First; One Nation; Democrats; Wikileaks; Katter’s Australian Party; Palmer United Party; Australian Christians; Nationals; half Labor, half Liberal; Greens.

Labor: Greens; Democrats; Shooters & Fishers; Katter’s Australian Party; Palmer United Party; Wikileaks; Australian Christians; Family First; Nationals; Liberal; One Nation.

Australian Independents: Shooters & Fishers; Democrats; Australian Christians; Family First; Wikileaks; Katter’s Australian Party; Palmer United Party; Greens; Nationals; One Nation; Liberal; Labor.

Australian Fishing and Lifestyle Party: Shooters & Fishers; Australian Christians; Family First; Democrats; Katter’s Australian Party; Palmer United Party; Liberal; Nationals; Labor; Wikileaks; One Nation; Greens.

Australian Democrats: half Wikileaks, half Katter’s Australian Party; Greens; Palmer United Party; half Liberal, half Labor; Nationals; One Nation; Family First; Shooters & Fishers; Australian Christians.

Australian Christians: Shooters & Fishers; Family First; One Nation; Palmer United Party; Katter’s Australian Party; Liberal; Nationals; Labor; Democrats; Wikileaks; Greens.

Animal Justice Party: Democrats; Wikileaks; Family First; Greens; Katter’s Australian Party; Palmer United Party; One Nation; Labor; Liberal; Nationals; Australian Christians; Shooters & Fishers.

SOUTH AUSTRALIA

Socialist Equality Party: Three completely different tickets lodged, apparently with the intention of conferring as little advantage as possible on any given party.

Family First: Australian Christians; One Nation; Democrats; Katter’s Australian Party; Liberal; Labor; Nick Xenophon; Greens.

Australian Democrats: Greens; Katter’s Australian Party; Nick Xenophon; Liberal; Labor; Family First; One Nation; Australian Christians.

Secular Party: Democrats; Nick Xenophon; Greens; Labor; Liberal; Katter’s Australian Party; One Nation; Family First; Australian Christians.

Liberal Democrats: Katter’s Australian Party; One Nation; Family First; Democrats; Liberal; Australian Christians; Nick Xenophon; Labor; Greens.

Palmer United Party: Nick Xenophon; Katter’s Australian Party; Australian Christians; Greens; Family First; Liberal; Democrats; One Nation; Labor.

Nick Xenophon Group (Ticket 1): Liberal; Katter’s Australian Party; Family First; Democrats; Labor; Greens; Australian Christians; One Nation.
Nick Xenophon Group (Ticket 2): Labor; Greens; Democrats; Katter’s Australian Party; Family First; Liberal; Australian Christians; One Nation.

National Party: Nick Xenophon; Family First; Liberal; Katter’s Australian Party; Australian Christians; Labor; Democrats; One Nation; Greens.

Group I (Ribnga Green): Greens; Democrats; Katter’s Australian Party; Labor; Liberal; Family First; Nick Xenophon; Australian Christians; One Nation.

Democratic Labour: Australian Christians; Family First; One Nation; Katter’s Australian Party; Nick Xenophon; Liberal; Labor; Democrats; Greens.

Rise Up Australia Party: One Nation; Australian Christians; Family First; Liberal; Nick Xenophon; Katter’s Australian Party; Democrats; Labor; Greens.

Group L (Dianah Meglich): Democrats; Katter’s Australian Party; Australian Christians; Greens; One Nation; Family First; Nick Xenophon; Labor; Liberal.

Country Alliance: Katter’s Australian Party; Liberal; Labor; One Nation; Democrats; Australian Christians; Family First; Nick Xenophon; Greens.

Sex Party: Democrats; One Nation; Greens; Nick Xenophon; Labor; Katter’s Australian Party; Liberal; Australian Christians; Family First.

Australian Independents: Family First; Democrats; One Nation; Australian Christians; Katter’s Australian Party; Greens; Nick Xenophon; Liberal; Labor.

Greens: Democrats; Nick Xenophon; Katter’s Australian Party; Labor; Australian Christians; Family First; Liberal; One Nation.

Animal Justice Party: Democrats; One Nation; Family First; Nick Xenophon; Greens; Labor; Liberal; Katter’s Australian Party; Australian Christians.

No Carbon Tax Climate Sceptics: Australian Christians; One Nation; Family First; Katter’s Australian Party; Democrats; Liberal; Nick Xenophon; Greens; Labor.

Help End Marijuana Prohibition (HEMP) Party: Democrats; Katter’s Australian Party; Greens; Labor; Family First; One Nation; Nick Xenophon; Liberal; Australian Christians.

Drug Law Reform: Democrats; Greens; Labor; Liberal; Nick Xenophon; Australian Christians; One Nation; Katter’s Australian Party; Family First.

One Nation: One Nation; Family First; Katter’s Australian Party; Australian Christians; Democrats; Liberal; Nick Xenophon; Labor; Greens.

Stable Population Party: Democrats; Family First; Australian Christians; One Nation; Katter’s Australian Party; one-third Greens, Labor, Liberal; one-third Labor, Liberal, Greens; one-third Liberal, Greens, Labor; Nick Xenophon.

Australian Christians: One Nation; Family First; Katter’s Australian Party; Liberal; Labor; Nick Xenophon; Democrats; Greens.

Shooters and Fishers: Family First; One Nation; Australian Christians; Democrats; Katter’s Australian Party; Liberal; Nick Xenophon; Labor; Greens.

Katter’s Australian Party: Australian Christians; One Nation; Family First; Democrats; Nick Xenophon; Greens; Liberal; Labor.

Smokers Rights: Katter’s Australian Party; One Nation; Family First; Democrats; Liberal; Australian Christians; Nick Xenophon; Labor; Greens.

Voluntary Euthanasia Party: Democrats; One Nation; Greens; Katter’s Australian Party; Nick Xenophon; Labor; Liberal; Australian Christians; Family First.

Australian Labor Party: Greens; Family First; Nick Xenophon; Katter’s Australian Party; Democrats; Liberal; Australian Christians; One Nation.

Building Australia Party: Australian Christians; Family First; One Nation; Democrats; Katter’s Australian Party; Nick Xenophon; Liberal; Labor; Greens.

Australian Motoring Enthusiast Party: Family First; Democrats; One Nation; Nick Xenophon; Katter’s Australian Party; Australian Christians; half Liberal, half Labor; Greens.

Australian Fishing and Lifestyle Party: Family First; One Nation; Australian Christians; Democrats; Katter’s Australian Party; Liberal; Nick Xenophon; Labor; Greens.

Liberal: Family First; Nick Xenophon; Australian Christians; Katter’s Australian Party; Democrats; Labor; Greens; One Nation.

TASMANIA

Country Alliance: Sex Party; Liberal; Katter’s Australian Party; DLP; Shooters & Fishers; Labor; Australian Christians; Palmer United Party; Family First; Greens.

Liberal Democrats: DLP; Family First; Sex Party; Katter’s Australian Party; Palmer United Party; Liberal; Labor; Shooters & Fishers; Australian Christians; Greens.

Labor: Greens; Shooters & Fishers; Sex Party; Family First; Palmer United Party; Katter’s Australian Party; Australian Christians; DLP; Liberal.

Rise Up Australia: DLP; Australian Christians; Family First; Shooters & Fishers; Liberal; Palmer United Party; Katter’s Australian Party; Labor; Sex Party; Greens.

Liberal: Family First; DLP; Australian Christians; Shooters & Fishers; Palmer United Party; Katter’s Australian Party; Labor; Sex Party; Greens.

Palmer United Party: Family First; Greens; Katter’s Australian Party; Sex Party; Shooters & Fishers; Liberal; Australian Christians; DLP; Labor.

Australian Christians: Family First; Shooters & Fishers; DLP; Liberal; Palmer United Party; Katter’s Australian Party; Labor; Greens; Sex Party.

Democratic Labour Party: Australian Christians; Katter’s Australian Party; Shooters & Fishers; Family First; Palmer United Party; Liberal; Labor; Sex Party; Greens.

Pirate Party: Greens; Sex Party; DLP; Labor; Shooters & Fishers; Liberal; Katter’s Australian Party; Palmer United Party; Australian Christians; Family First.

Greens: Sex Party; Labor; Family First; Palmer United Party; Katter’s Australian Party; DLP; Liberal; Australian Christians; Shooters & Fishers.

Help End Marijuana Prohibition: Sex Party; Katter’s Australian Party; Labor; Greens; Shooters & Fishers; Family First; DLP; Palmer United Party; Liberal; Australian Christians.

Shooters & Fishers: Australian Christians; DLP; Sex Party; Family First; Katter’s Australian Party; Palmer United Party; Labor; Liberal; Greens.

Australian Independents: Family First; Shooters & Fishers; Sex Party; Australian Christians; DLP; Palmer United Party; Katter’s Australian Party; Greens; Liberal; Labor.

Sex Party: Shooters & Fishers; Labor; Katter’s Australian Party; Greens; Liberal; Palmer United Party; Australian Christians; DLP; Family First.

Senator Online: Family First; Shooters & Fishers; Australian Christians; Sex Party; Katter’s Australian Party; DLP; Palmer United Party; Greens; Labor; Liberal.

Katter’s Australian Party: Family First; DLP; Australian Christians; Palmer United Party; Shooters & Fishers; Liberal; Greens; Labor; Sex Party.

No Carbon Tax Climate Sceptics: Family First; Australian Christians; Shooters & Fishers; Sex Party; Katter’s Australian Party; Palmer United Party; Labor; Liberal; Greens; DLP.

Australian Fishing and Lifestyle Party: Shooters & Fishers; Australian Christians; DLP; Family First; Sex Party; Katter’s Australian Party; Palmer United Party; Labor; Liberal; Greens.

Stable Population Party: Sex Party; Australian Christians; Family First; DLP; Katter’s Australian Party; Palmer United Party; one-third Greens, Labor, Liberal; one-third Labor, Liberal, Greens; one-third Liberal, Greens, Labor; Shooters & Fishers.

Smokers Rights: Sex Party; DLP; Family First; Katter’s Australian Party; Palmer United Party; Liberal; Labor; Shooters & Fishers; Australian Christians; Greens.

Family First: Australian Christians; Shooters & Fishers; DLP; Katter’s Australian Party; Palmer United Party; Liberal; Labor; Greens; Sex Party.

Stop the Greens: DLP; Family First; Sex Party; Katter’s Australian Party; Palmer United Party; Liberal; Labor; Shooters & Fishers; Australian Christians; Greens.

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28 comments

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geekLections
Guest

Your comment is awaiting moderation.
If anyone’s interested; I have the potential senate breakdowns available at:

http://www.geeklections.com.au/senate_results_current.html

Family First has generally good deals, and will probably get up in Victoria, and might get up in QLD. No Carbon Tax Climate Sceptics have a very good shot in SA (depending on how well, and where from, Nick Xenophon picks up votes).

geekLections
Guest

If anyone’s interested; I have the potential senate breakdowns available at:

http://www.geeklections.com.au/senate_results_current.html

Family First has generally good deals, and will probably get up in Victoria, and might get up in QLD. No Carbon Tax Climate Sceptics have a very good shot in SA (depending on how well, and where from, Nick Xenophon picks up votes).

democracy@work
Guest

Great to see the ABC calculator up and running

The ABC calculator shows Wikileaks is in a strong position to win in Western Australia with just 2% of the vote. at the expense of the Greens who are polling around 9% (-5).

The 5% loss to the Greens has to go somewhere.

The ALP and the LNP are expected to poll more or less the same in 2010.

Wikileaks picks up most of the preferences from SMK LDP HMP ASXP SPA KAP SPP and DEM early in the count and also secondary preferences from other parties once FFP is excluded

The likelihood of Wikileaks out polling the Greens and winning the sixth seat explains much of the misconceptions and misleading statements by the Greens who are now attacking Wikileaks.

On another issue re design of the ABC calculator:

It should be possible to implement a data population ULR feed, as is the case in the ABC HoR Pendulum calculator?

This would make it much more useful.

Thanks again

democracy@work
Guest
Sorry your comments section does not support you should allow this… WA is Wikileaks best hop which explain mush of the false and misleading comments ‘Spook chat’ put out by the Greens. At no stage is the LNP close to winning four seats in the Senate. Remember there are a number of flaws in the way the Senate vote is counted., (The method of calculating the surplus transfer value, the segmented distribution of excluded candidates and the Droop quota) In 2007 the segmented distribution issue denied the Greens a Senate seat. (Some may say that was a good thing) The Greens will be beginning to think they should have corrected these flaws now that they will effect their outcomes in TAS, WA, NSW. Victoria and QLD. For some reason, unbetold other than to prevent proper scrutiny, the AEC will not be providing scrutineers access to copies of the Below the line preference data files progressively during the count. The Greens may like to rethink this. It is akin to going to the supermarket and buying a months worth of family shopping and not handed a detailed receipt or showing the cost of your purchases as you scan you purchase. In all respect the AEC goes an excellent job at counting the votes. Much better than the States. But access to the preference data file is crucial is you are going to monitor the BTL data entry process. There is no reason or justification to not make this available during the count The first group in the ballot is worth at least 0.5-0.6% You can assume that each of the ALP and LNP tickets will elect the first two candidates in the LNP’s case three. I see little change here. (Except in Victoria Helen Kroger is in a weal position) The ALP/Libs and Greens and no in a good position in terms of above the line voting preferences. Wikileaks has the best and FF is well placed thanks to a consistent religious right cross preferencing. “Marriage equality issue has united them even more. BTL votes will not play as much a roll as you might think With such a large number of candidates the number voting below the line will be lower as the number made informal is likely to increase. In any event most who vote below the line remain within group. There vote will stop at one of the… Read more »
democracy@work
Guest
WA Preference flow The Greens are attacking Wikileaks for their preference allocation placing the National Party ahead of the Greens.claiming that Wikileaks party owes the Greens a better deal The fact is that Wikileaks would have to be excluded from the count before the National Party and the irony of it is the more that the Greens attack Wikileaks the more likely a National Party could out-poll Wikileaks.  (This is unlikely)  the only way we can see the National Party out polling Wikileaks is if the Coalition handed out a separate HTV card urging its supporters in rural WA to vote for the Nationals thus upping their vote.  In 2010 the National polled less than 4%   The Greens think they are somehow a protected species. To the Greens dismay Wikileaks is a competitor not a partner and is likely to win over the Greens in WA ABC State Seat Historical voting statistics used asa base in analysis You can play with the outcome using the ABC Senate calculator.  I suggest you start by allocating a percentage to Wikileaks and deducting that from the Greens vote and then adjust all other parties percentage to accommodate the other minor parties that are standing for the first time in WA Western Australia Candidate Party 1 David JOHNSTON Liberal Party 2 Joe BULLOCK Australian Labor Party 3 Michaelia CASH Liberal Party 4 Linda REYNOLDS Liberal Party 5 Louise PRATT Australian Labor Party 6 Gerry GEORGATOS The Wikileaks Party ID    Group Name                                                    Preference Flow   A Smokers Rights  WKP   FFP   NP   LP   ALP   GRN  B Liberal Democrats  WKP   FFP   NP   LP   ALP   GRN  C Australian Christians  FFP   LP   NP   ALP   WKP   GRN  D Help End Marijuana Prohibition (HEMP) Party  WKP   GRN   ALP   FFP   NP   LP  E Socialist Equality Party  GRN   NP   ALP   LP   WKP   FFP  E Socialist Equality Party  ALP   LP   WKP   FFP   GRN   NP  E Socialist Equality Party  LP   WKP   FFP   GRN   NP   ALP  F Palmer United Party  FFP   WKP   GRN   NP   LP   ALP  G Shooters and Fishers  FFP   LP   NP   ALP   WKP   GRN  H Australian Voice Party  FFP   WKP   NP   LP   ALP   GRN  I Sex Party  WKP   GRN   ALP   NP   LP   FFP  J Secular Party of Australia  WKP   GRN   ALP   NP   LP   FFP  K Australian Independents  FFP   WKP … Read more »
democracy@work
Guest

WLP can win in WA against the Greens Ludy with just 2% of the vote.

In NSW Sex Party.

In VIC Assange can win against the Greens provided the ALP Surplus plus Green vote is below Quota. (Unlikely) Wan interesting outcome that was missed is that Helen Kroger can lose to Family Fist

South Australia, disappointingly Sarah Hansen-Young (Goth as we call her) will retain her seat, The full extent of teh zenopone factor being the unknown but it has to come from somewhere mainly the religious right.

QLD is anyone’s guess. Hard to just teh extent of tehy Fatter and Palmer effect

Tasey no change

Again Wikilikes is well paced for preferences in WA and Victoria

All tested via Antony Greens Senate Calc including my own database and OpenSTV

more http://www.democracy-A0work.blogspot.com including crucial preference flow charts

DJR
Guest

Wow! That would have taken some working out.
And bloody confusing for us average punters.
I’d love to see a little web applet where you can put a few parties in order of personal preference and see which major party it eventually filters through to according to the above preferences.

Andrew Dolt
Guest

Not even close, William. Totally misleading. For the true picture go to the horse’s mouth (SA link shown, look up your own state): http://aec.gov.au/election/sa/gvt.htm#p

dovif
Guest

Wakefield

What if the ALP gets 34% primary in Qld ie around .5 of a quota, the Greens are on .8 and the KAP are on .7?

The ALP elects the KAP candidate. At the moment I think that is very likely

Wakefield
Guest

Thanks William – good information. I take it the order is as per ballot draw? If so usual donkey benefit to right as there are lots more minor right wing groups

A Crane – Nationals in SA no chance – probably < 0.5% and will go out early.

Dovif – you have no idea. Labor preferences only important if they have a smallish surplus not a big one.

Nick Xenophon whinging about parties putting his running mate Stirling Griff much lower than X – people learnt a big lesson years ago when unknown Ann Bressington got elected to Upper House in SA on X big vote – Bressington got 8 years at a cost of about $4m or whatever to taxpayers and has been one of the lesser contributors to life – including sponsoring Lord Monckton to Australia.

lenxyz
Guest

William I note that you exclude those with effectively no chance, but in 2010 Democrats, FF and Shooters and Fishers all polled less than CDP (now Australian Christians), yet you include those. Admittedly S&F did well in the last state election and have a chance but so do AC who poll relatively well in WA

lenxyz
Guest

William,
For Western Australia not one of your tickets show preferences to the Australian Christians. Since AC (formerly CDP) outpolls FF that is a significant oversight.

A Crane
Guest

Xenophon is preferencing Nats in SA. Interesting. Could they be in with a chance?

dovif
Guest

The most interesting part of the Senate arrangement is in Qld. Where the LNP is likely to get 3 senators off an expected 2PP vote of 56% and Primary > 42%

If the ALP does not get 28% primary or if the ALP gets significantly over 28%, the preference deal might deliver the last seat to KAP

christoll
Guest

There are a few errors here, which isn’t surprising given the mammoth task Poll Bludger is trying to undertake here… A particularly glaring one though is the Greens ticket for QLD: they haven’t preferenced Family First before Labor! The actual Greens ticket for QLD shows Labor, PUP, DLP, Rudd/Dinsey, Family First, KAP, LNP.

http://www.aec.gov.au/election/downloads.htm

Radguy
Guest

http://www.tallyroom.com.au/aus2013/wasen2013

This is an interesting article.

I think much of the weird preferences are explained by an effort to weaken Liberal senate control.

Strong westerlys at the moment.

wpDiscuz