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Federal Election 2013

Aug 23, 2013

Galaxy marginals polling

Polls from 11 seats across three states paint a broad picture of Labor losing office on the back of swings averaging 4.6%. Also, a head-to-head analysis of various pollsters and poll methods throughout the campaign.

GhostWhoVotes reports Galaxy has electorate-level polls from 10 marginal seats in New South Wales and Victoria, collectively painting a grim picture for Labor. There is also a Newspoll survey of 502 respondents showing Peter Beattie trailing by 54-46 in Forde (a swing to the Liberal National Party of about 2%), from primary votes of 38% for Labor (37.4% at the 2010 election), 48% for the Coalition (44.1%) and 5% for the Greens (12.2%). The Galaxy poll has apparently targeted 550 to 600 respondents per electorate for a margin of error of 4%. (UPDATE: These turn out to be automated polls, and not live interviewer polls like Galaxy normally does.)

In the Sydney seats:

Lindsay. A 54-46 lead to the Liberals, a swing of about 5%.

Banks. A 52-48 lead to the Liberals, a swing of 3.5%.

Werriwa. A 52-48 lead to the Liberals, a swing of 9%.

Reid. A 53-47 lead to the Liberals, a swing of 6%.

Greenway. A 51-49 lead to the Liberals, a swing of 2%.

Parramatta. 50-50, a swing of about 5.5%.

Barton. Labor ahead 52-48, a swing of 5%.

In Victoria:

La Trobe. The Liberals lead 51-49, a swing of 3%, from primary votes of 36% for Labor and 45% for the Liberals.

Corangamite. The Liberals lead 56-44, a swing of slightly over 6%.

Chisholm. Labor leads 52-48, a Liberal swing of 4%.

Today also brought a Lonergan automated poll of Kevin Rudd’s seat of Griffith, which remarkably showed him trailing Liberal National Party candidate Bill Glasson 52-48 on two-party preferred, from primary votes of 38% for Rudd (down six on 2010), 47% for Glasson (up 11% on the LNP vote in 2013) and 11% for the Greens (down four). Either in anticipation of or in reaction to the inevitably skeptical response, the company’s principal Chris Lonergan penned a rather informative piece on methodology for The Guardian.

UPDATE: The bit below has been amended to account for the fact that the Galaxy polls were automated, which means there is actually very little basis for comparing automated and live interview electorate polls.

Which makes this a timely juncture to consider how polling of various kinds has performed during the campaign. The table below shows the number of polls conducted for each pollster and poll method together with the average Labor swing, at both electorate and national level. There follows, for your convenience, basic results for every electorate-level poll of the campaign barring a small number which did not involve Labor-versus-Coalition contest, together with the swings – not a single one of which is in Labor’s favour, emphasising the point that electorate-level has been much worse for Labor than national polling. However, since nearly all of this polling has mostly been of the automated phone variety, the question arises of whether this it to do with polling method, the particular challenges of electorate-level polling, or the peculiarities of the electorates being polled.

The only live interview electorate polls featured have been two from Newspoll, which makes their performance relative to automated phone polls hard to compare. However, there is a very large gap of 4.3% between national and electorate polls for automated pollsters. Non-phone methods, which have only been employed at national level, appear to have been more favourable for Labor, although there haven’t been very many of them (note that the two-party result being used from Morgan is the previous-election measure).

ELECTORATE POLLS					#	Swing
Galaxy							10	5.1
ReachTEL						8	7.25
JWS Research						8	6
Lonergan						3	11.3
AUTOMATED						29	6.6
Newspoll (live interviewer)				2	4.5
TOTAL							31	6.5
					
NATIONAL POLLS					        #	Swing
Newspoll						2	3
Nielsen							1	2
Galaxy							2	1.5
LIVE INTERVIEW						6	2.2
ReachTEL						2	2.5
Lonergan						1	2
AUTOMATED						3	2.3
Essential						2	0
AMR Research						1	0
ONLINE							3	0
Morgan Multi-Mode					2	1.75
TOTAL							13	1.7

ELECTORATE POLL RESULTS				Sample	ALP	Swing
Griffith	Lonergan	21/08/2013	958	48	10
Werriwa		Galaxy		20/08/2013	575	48	9
Reid		Galaxy		20/08/2013	575	47	6
Parramatta	Galaxy		20/08/2013	575	50	4
Lindsay		Galaxy		20/08/2013	575	46	5
La Trobe	Galaxy		20/08/2013	575	49	3
Greenway	Galaxy		20/08/2013	575	49	2
Forde		Newspoll	20/08/2013	502	46	2
Corangamite	Galaxy		20/08/2013	575	44	6
Chisholm	Galaxy		20/08/2013	575	48	8
Barton		Galaxy		20/08/2013	575	52	5
Banks		Galaxy		20/08/2013	575	48	3
McMahon		ReachTEL	15/08/2013	631	47	11
Macquarie	JWS Research	15/08/2013	710	45	4
Lindsay		JWS Research	15/08/2013	578	39	12
Kingsford Smith	ReachTEL	15/08/2013	610	48	7
Greenway	JWS Research	15/08/2013	570	51	0
Forde		Lonergan	15/08/2013	568	40	9
Forde		JWS Research	15/08/2013	1160	40	9
Deakin		ReachTEL	15/08/2013	619	47	4
Corangamite	ReachTEL	15/08/2013	633	44	7
Corangamite	JWS Research	15/08/2013	587	47	4
Brisbane	JWS Research	15/08/2013	607	46	3
Blaxland	ReachTEL	15/08/2013	636	52	10
Bennelong	ReachTEL	15/08/2013	631	35	12
Banks		JWS Research	15/08/2013	542	47	4
Aston		JWS Research	15/08/2013	577	37	12
Lindsay		Lonergan	14/08/2013	1038	36	15
Dobell/RobertsonNewspoll	11/08/2013	505	46	7
Forde		ReachTEL	08/08/2013	725	46	3
Griffith	ReachTEL	05/08/2013	702	46	4

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952 comments

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Mark the Ballot
Guest

Updated aggregation: http://bit.ly/1560DOn

crikey whitey
Guest

Oh. Essendon.

my say
Guest
https://www.facebook.com/AustralianUnions?hc_location=stream have noticed over at the Liberal Party Facebook page that they have a fun Friday afternoon regular post called “Flashback Friday!”. They post retro pictures of Tony Abbott showing what a fun guy he is in black and white. However, there are plenty of moments in Abbott’s history that don’t seem to ever get a run. So we thought we’d post them here to make sure there is a well rounded picture of Abbott’s history! ========================================================= please read flashback Friday above and remember some of his slogans there is one about picking up rubbish,, yes u and I in… Read more »
my say
Guest
do u know why I dislike this place and have only for getting out information to people who read its the people that predict polls in posts and elsewhere some people don’t like Russian roulette and I am one of them glory is always at it cannot any one ever predict a nice one no because we know there little games I scroll by to read but see them unfortunately do u all find it necessary to do that all so I doubt very much if mr bowe understand labor passion for our country polling seems a game to to… Read more »
my say
Guest

I wonder how many lib members at this time being so busy

get an personal thanyou email,

well I just did from Julie Collins

my say
Guest

unless the poll is our way don’t believe it

I don’t think aust, are that dumb and stupid

or is it only intelligent people vote alp

of course u can still have degree and just not be informed

or so rusted on the brain cannot comprehend the days since meinzies who no doubt would be turning over in his grave,

River
Guest

[quote]If the coalition doesnt get into government after september 7th[/quote]

I honestly cannot wait to see your reaction on the 7th.

ruawake
Guest

[Are you around? I need help in sending a music link to my sister for Mum’s funeral and wonder if you can tell me how to do it!]

email me: ruawake@outlook.com

ruawake
Guest

Seems Fairfax must have Greens on 9% and others on 9% as well.

Meguire Bob
Guest

Newsltd/abbott coalition , pro coallition media , coalition supporters and so called polling analsis will have a lot of explaining to do when,

If the coalition doesnt get into government after september 7th

Mick77
Guest

At 1% drift a week we’ll get to 45/55 on polling day = “Gillard territory”. So it was all in vain: the hate, the loss of heartland, the backflips on AS, the knifings, the loss of key caucus members, the deal with the devil Greens. Once, was a great Party whereas now the shindig at Gillard’s joint on Sat evening 7/9 will be a better party.

blackburnpseph
Guest

[which the pro coalition media needs to take the focus off abbott bad week and his boat buy back plan]

Has Abbott had a bad week? Has Rudd had a good week? All a bit so-so actually.

MTBW
Guest

rua

Are you around? I need help in sending a music link to my sister for Mum’s funeral and wonder if you can tell me how to do it!

blackburnpseph
Guest

From the Fairfax link ..

[The slow but steady rate of drift from Labor towards the Coalition raises the prospect of an Abbott-led landslide in 2013]

The drift I can agree with but the jury well and truly still out on it being landslide territory.

Meguire Bob
Guest

ruawake
Posted Friday, August 23, 2013 at 5:44 pm | PERMALINK
Isn’t 53-47 an improvement on Newspoll.

————

its the poll , the poll

which the pro coalition media needs to take the focus off abbott bad week and his boat buy back plan

bemused
Guest

Yoyoma Bones@823

Compact Crank @ 812 – Actually I don’t think Gillard should have been elected PM in 2010 – it should have been Rudd

Where were you when the argument raged against the Gillard cult?

CTar1
Guest

poroti

[German engine builders blamed ‘Strayan sailors for “operator error” and from stuff I have seen since they were very likely right.]

Patrol boats can be a funny environment.

I remember an Attack Class one being in deep shit for having serious damage done to it after backing over a fishing net.

The serious part was that it was towing the net.

Meguire Bob
Guest

So predictable

and embarassing for the coalition supporters to rely on poills which mean nothing at all

Meguire Bob
Guest

Yep when abbott is in trouble

the pro coalition media tries to get help him out , wiht the media drvien polls

which are a farce

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