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Federal Election 2013

Aug 29, 2013

Senate of the day: Western Australia

Western Australia has produced the most consistent Senate results of any state in the modern era of six-seat half-Senate elections, but there at times been talk of Labor facing an unprecedented disaster this time around.

Western Australia has produced variations on the same result since the first six-seat half-Senate election in 1990: three seats for the Liberals, two for Labor and one for either the Greens or the Democrats. This reflects the fact that Labor has consistently been too weak to win a third seat, but never quite so weak that it was unable to deliver enough preferences to the Greens or Democrats to win them a seat. The state joined Tasmania in being a cradle of green politics, in large part due to the election in 1984 of Jo Vallentine as part of the short-lived Nuclear Disarmament Party (whose narrowly unsuccessful candidate in New South Wales was Peter Garrett). The profile Vallentine attained enabled her to win re-election as an independent at the 1987 double dissolution and as the candidate of the newly founded Greens WA in 1990, and their candidate Dee Margetts likewise outpolled a weakly performing Australian Democrats to win the final seat in 1993.

The Democrats vote surged over subsequent elections, progressively squeezing out Vallentine’s successor Christabel Chamarette in 1996 and Dee Margetts in 1998, while Labor’s direction of preferences to the Democrats ahead of the Greens won them one last victory in 2001. One Nation took a large bite out of the Liberal vote in 1998 and 2001, but on each occasion the early exclusion of the third Labor candidate left Labor, Democrats and Greens preferences deciding the final seat in favour of the Liberals. With the collapse of the Democrats in 2004, the three subsequent elections have followed the same pattern in delivering a clear three quotas to Liberal and two to Labor, with the final seat going to the Greens with help from Labor’s surplus. Their winning candidates were Rachel Siewert in 2004 and 2010, and Scott Ludlam in 2007.

The greatest prospect for a disturbance in the normal pattern is that the combined Labor and Greens vote falls substantially below three quotas, from its 2010 base of 3.05. The nightmare scenario for Labor in that circumstance would be winning only win seat, with the second left seat going to the Greeens and the other four to parties of the right. One possibility than then emerges is that the Nationals enter contention by absorbing a Liberal surplus and the vote of various right-wing minor parties together with that of Wikileaks, which has contentiously favoured them ahead of both Labor and the Greens. Critics of that decision include Christine Assange, the highly vocal mother of Julian, who has said she would vote for Scott Ludlam, a noted parliamentary champion of her son’s cause. There’s also a mathematical possibility that Wikileaks’ preference deals could indeed pay off for their candidate, Suresh Rajan, who would stand to absorb most of the micro-party vote in a four-way contest with the Nationals, the Greens and Labor, including such unlikely sources as Family First and the Clive Palmer and Bob Katter parties.

The Labor ticket is headed by debut entrant Joe Bullock, state president and former state secretary of the Right faction Shop Distributive and Allied Employees Association. Bullock attained the position with the factional muscle of his own union together with that of the Left faction United Voice, part of a deal in which the nominee of the latter, Sue Lines, filled the casual vacancy created by the retirement earlier this year of Chris Evans. In doing so he effectively displaced from the Senate ticket his factional colleague Mark Bishop, who was his predecessor as SDA state secretary, and had the other incumbent, Louise Pratt, demoted from her number one position at the 2007 election. With suggestions circulating that Labor’s malaise in Western Australia might reduce it to a solitary seat at the election, the ordering of the top two positions was of greater than usual consequence, and the awarding of the only secure position to a factional heavyweight was widely criticised.

Louise Pratt entered politics as a member of the state’s upper house in 2001, having previously worked as an electorate officer to Carmen Lawrence and achieved prominence in Perth’s gay community. Her preselection for the Senate at the 2007 election was achieved with backing from the Left faction Australian Manufacturing Workers Union and its powerful state secretary, the late Jock Ferguson, which had withdrawn support from incumbent Ruth Webber following complicated preselection disputes ahead of the 2005 state election, with the effect that Webber had to settle for the losing number three position. Pratt won backing from an alliance of Left unions and the New Right, through a deal in which her vacant state seat went to Vietnamese community leader and “New Right” faction operative Batong Pham. Pratt’s success in securing top place was an early marker of the declining career fortunes of Mark Bishop, who had announced his intention to retire in 2006 before changing his mind after Kevin Rudd assumed the leadership that December. Bishop appeared set to be succeeded by the party’s state secretary Bill Johnston, another member of the SDA Right, who would instead enter state politics in 2008 as the member for Cannington.

Number three on the Labor ticket is Peter Foster, a councillor for the Shire of Ashburton in the state’s north and a prolific Twitterer.

The Liberal ticket is headed by David Johnston, a former state party president who entered parliament from the number two position on the ticket at the 2001 election. Johnston secured the top of the ticket in 2007, reflecting his promotion to the outer ministry portfolio of justice in March 2007. In opposition he was promoted to the shadow cabinet in the resources and energy and tourism portfolios, winning further promotion to defence at the time Malcolm Turnbull assumed the leadership in September 2008. Second on the ticket is Michaelia Cash, who was elected from number three in 2007 and now fills the vacancy higher up the ticket resulting from the retirement after 17 years of Alan Eggleston. Cash was an industrial relations lawyer before entering parliament, and is the daughter of a former Western Australian state MP, George Cash. She had initially been preselected for the all-but-unwinnable fourth position on the ticket, but was elevated to number three after the initial nominee for that position, Mathias Cormann, found a quicker route to the Senate by filling the casual vacancy created by the resignation of Ian Campbell. Cormann had in turn won preselection at the expense of 70-year-old incumbent Ross Lightfoot. Cash’s promotion up the order created an attractive opportunity in the number three position. This has been taken by Linda Reynolds, who was progressively chief-of-staff to former Senator Chris Ellison, a project director with defence company Raytheon, deputy federal director of the Liberal Party, and an adjutant-general with the Australian Army.

Seeking re-election for the Greens is Scott Ludlam, who entered politics at the 2007 election via a position as adviser to the other Greens Senator from Western Australia, Rachel Siewert, and previously with state MP Robin Chapple. Much of the publicity Ludlam has garnered during his term as a Senator involved his advocacy for Julian Assange, so considerable umbrage has been taken at the Wikileaks Party relegating him below Nationals candidate David Wirrpanda on their preference ticket. Wirrpanda is famous throughout the state as a veteran of 227 AFL games with the West Coast Eagles from 1996 to 2009, and was twice featured in a list of the ten most influential Aboriginal Australians in The Bulletin. The Wikileaks Party’s lead candidate is Gerry Georgatos, a campaigner for various causes who fell out with the Greens in 2009 after being eased out as its candidate for a state by-election.

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39 comments

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democracy@work
Guest

Correction. Whilst other States have finished proportioning out the above the line to Below the line votes WA has not completed this task. The number of BELOW the line votes for RUA and TCS is still unknown. This was my mistake.

democracy@work
Guest

WA Senate

Above the line and Below the Line have been proportioned out.

All indications are that Sports Party will not survive the count at two crucial junctions

TCS 603:506 (ABTL:BTL) – 193 Margin vs 506 BTL votes that might not be transferred to SPRTS

RUA 1542:1499 (ATL:BTL) – 199 Notional Margin vs 1399 BTL votes that might not be transferred to SPRTS

The ALP has slipped back to 26.75% giving Greens advantage

BUT i s is now Essential for all parties to secure a copy of the BTL preference data file to facilitate the proper open scrutiny of the ballot

democracy@work
Guest

Sports chain of preferences would have to be broken early in the count. Under this situation Palmer United collects the lions share.

There are a number of close tipping pints in the WA Senate count

It ain’t over until the Polly sings… and the BTL vote is recorded.

The AEC must publish and provide copies of the BTL preference data files to scrutineers. without this file it is impossible to verify he integrity of the computer count election

democracy@work
Guest

crucial end of count preference flow

AlphaCode, Group Name, GroupPref
A, Smokers Rights, LDP, SPRT, PUP, ALP, GRN
B, Liberal Democrats, LDP, SPRT, PUP, ALP, GRN
C, Australian Christians, SPRT, PUP, ALP, LDP, GRN
D, Help End Marijuana Prohibition (HEMP) Party, SPRT, LDP, GRN, ALP, PUP
E, Socialist Equality Party, GRN, SPRT, ALP, LDP, PUP
E, Socialist Equality Party, ALP, LDP, PUP, GRN, SPRT
E, Socialist Equality Party, LDP, PUP, GRN, SPRT, ALP
F, Palmer United Party, PUP, LDP, GRN, SPRT, ALP
G, Shooters and Fishers, SPRT, LDP, PUP, ALP, GRN
H, Australian Voice Party, SPRT, PUP, LDP, ALP, GRN
I, Sex Party, SPRT, LDP, GRN, ALP, PUP
J, Secular Party of Australia, GRN, LDP, ALP, PUP, SPRT
K, Australian Independents, SPRT, LDP, PUP, GRN, ALP
L, The Wikileaks Party, SPRT, GRN, LDP, ALP, PUP
M, Katter’s Australian Party, PUP, SPRT, LDP, GRN, ALP
N, Family First Party, SPRT, LDP, PUP, ALP, GRN
O, No Carbon Tax Climate Sceptics, SPRT, LDP, PUP, ALP, GRN
P, Stable Population Party, SPRT, PUP, LDP, GRN, ALP
P, Stable Population Party, SPRT, PUP, LDP, ALP, GRN
P, Stable Population Party, SPRT, PUP, LDP, GRN, ALP
Q, Stop The Greens, LDP, SPRT, PUP, ALP, GRN
R, Australian Democrats, LDP, SPRT, GRN, PUP, ALP
R, Australian Democrats, LDP, SPRT, GRN, PUP, ALP
S, The Greens (WA), GRN, SPRT, ALP, PUP, LDP
T, Animal Justice Party, SPRT, GRN, PUP, LDP, ALP
U, The Nationals, LDP, PUP, SPRT, ALP, GRN
V, Australian Fishing and Lifestyle Party, SPRT, LDP, PUP, ALP, GRN
W, Australian Motoring Enthusiast Party, SPRT, LDP, PUP, ALP, GRN
W, Australian Motoring Enthusiast Party, SPRT, LDP, PUP, ALP, GRN
X, Australian Sports Party, SPRT, PUP, LDP, GRN, ALP
Y, Rise Up Australia Party, SPRT, PUP, ALP, LDP, GRN
Z, Australian Labor Party, ALP, GRN, SPRT, PUP, LDP
AA, Liberal, SPRT, PUP, LDP, ALP, GRN

democracy@work
Guest

WASenate Sport does not out poll Fishing Shooters party and the chain of preferences is broken Palmer United Party is elected #auspol

Antony Green’s Calculator does not include a time date stamp of its data feed. Non professional design

democracy@work
Guest
Update Preference flow table to include PUP, TCSC and LDP AlphaCode ,Group Name ,GroupPref A ,Smokers Rights , ,LDP ,PUP ,TCS ,NP ,LP ,ALP ,GRN B ,Liberal Democrats , ,LDP ,PUP ,TCS ,NP ,LP ,ALP ,GRN C ,Australian Christians , ,TCS ,PUP ,LP ,NP ,ALP ,LDP ,GRN D ,Help End Marijuana Prohibition (HEMP) Party , ,TCS ,LDP ,GRN ,ALP ,NP ,PUP ,LP E ,Socialist Equality Party , ,GRN ,NP ,ALP ,LP ,LDP ,PUP ,TCS E ,Socialist Equality Party , ,ALP ,LP ,LDP ,PUP ,TCS ,GRN ,NP E ,Socialist Equality Party , ,LP ,LDP ,PUP ,TCS ,GRN ,NP ,ALP F ,Palmer United Party , ,PUP ,TCS ,LDP ,GRN ,NP ,LP ,ALP G ,Shooters and Fishers , ,TCS ,LDP ,PUP ,LP ,NP ,ALP ,GRN H ,Australian Voice Party , ,TCS ,PUP ,LDP ,NP ,LP ,ALP ,GRN I ,Sex Party , ,TCS ,LDP ,GRN ,ALP ,NP ,LP ,PUP J ,Secular Party of Australia , ,GRN ,LDP ,ALP ,NP ,LP ,PUP ,TCS K ,Australian Independents , ,TCS ,LDP ,PUP ,GRN ,NP ,LP ,ALP L ,The Wikileaks Party , ,NP ,GRN ,LDP ,ALP ,LP ,PUP ,TCS M ,Katter’s Australian Party , ,PUP ,LP ,NP ,LDP ,TCS ,GRN ,ALP N ,Family First Party , ,TCS ,LDP ,PUP ,LP ,NP ,ALP ,GRN O ,No Carbon Tax Climate Sceptics , ,TCS ,LDP ,PUP ,NP ,LP ,ALP ,GRN P ,Stable Population Party , ,PUP ,LDP ,GRN ,ALP ,LP ,NP ,TCS P ,Stable Population Party , ,PUP ,LDP ,ALP ,GRN ,LP ,NP ,TCS P ,Stable Population Party , ,PUP ,LDP ,LP ,GRN ,ALP ,NP ,TCS Q ,Stop The Greens , ,LDP ,PUP ,TCS ,NP ,LP ,ALP ,GRN R ,Australian Democrats , ,LDP ,GRN ,PUP ,ALP ,LP ,NP ,TCS R ,Australian Democrats , ,LDP ,GRN ,PUP ,LP ,ALP ,NP ,TCS S ,The Greens (WA) , ,GRN ,ALP ,PUP ,NP ,LP ,TCS ,LDP T ,Animal Justice Party , ,TCS ,GRN ,PUP ,LDP ,ALP ,LP ,NP U ,The Nationals , ,NP ,LP ,LDP ,PUP ,TCS ,ALP ,GRN V ,Australian Fishing and Lifestyle Party , ,TCS ,LDP ,PUP ,LP ,NP ,ALP ,GRN W ,Australian Motoring Enthusiast Party , ,TCS ,LDP ,PUP ,NP ,ALP ,LP ,GRN W ,Australian Motoring Enthusiast Party , ,TCS ,LDP ,PUP ,NP ,LP ,ALP ,GRN X ,Australian Sports Party , ,TCS ,PUP ,LDP ,NP ,LP ,GRN ,ALP Y ,Rise Up Australia Party , ,TCS ,LP ,PUP ,NP ,ALP ,LDP ,GRN Z ,Australian Labor Party , ,ALP ,GRN ,PUP ,LDP ,TCS ,NP… Read more »
democracy@work
Guest

Greens/LDP could lose out to PUP

democracy@work
Guest

Uodate: PUP is polling high in all states accoring to a recent Morgen Poll

http://www.roymorgan.com/findings/5169-morgan-poll-federal-election-2013-201309061457

Western Australia is showing a contest for the last seat between the Greens and Liberal Democrats

Wikileaks campaign has faltered and will not effect the outcome of the election

The Twerking Palmer has tapped into Ausrtalia

truth seeker
Guest

Hello all (if you’re looking at this, you must be committed!)

Just letting you know I have updated my WA Senate forecast – http://originaltruthseeker.blogspot.com.au/2013/09/wa-senate-truthseeker-forecasts.html

Speaker, you’ll concur with higher PUP vote – but is it high enough? I will re-run numbers on Saturday once I have all the final polls.

democracy@work
Guest
Sorry I do not think it does that even. In the end there are only two piles. The last elected candidate and the wasted quota. If you want to know where you vote will end up assuming you vote ATL then you look at the table above. The ALP and the LNP will both elect 2 candidates each. The LNP will most likely elect a 3rd in WA. The issue is will the Greens get 0ver the line or be left holding the Wasted Droop quota. I argue against the Droop quota, I do not see it having any meaningful role in a pure proportional preferential system/. Why divide the cake by 7 and throw away a slice. The rules of the Senate count are in need of major review and reform. I do not see the Nationals getting elected. Much depends on the level of the ALP surplus and the Greens vote. Wikileaks can win the seat but it is looking less likely as the campaign come to an end. Wikileaks would have to have a real campaign on the ground and target the Greens and the Anti War message. Clive Palmer will play a main role. maybe the ALP will get above 37% I think not. The odds are in the Greens favour. Luddy is the better of the Greens but his party is a real shocker. They will keep a progressive non conservative government out of office for decades. I am of the belief that there will be a double senate election within 12 months if not sooner. We will know on Saturday I want to again mention my ongoing concern that the AEC is refusing to provide copies of the BTL Preference date-entry data-file. Why? There is no justification to not subject this data file to open transparent independent analysis and review. Refusing to make this file available brings the AEC and the conduct of the Senate count into disrepute. You can not scrutinise an electronic count without access to this data file. It should be published progressively as the count progresses as the the results of the count during the night. The Greens have done nothing to address flaws in the Senate count. The AEC being the wort offender as they are meant to be an independent professional organisation. Again I ask why is this crucial data file not available for scrutiny? If the results… Read more »
freediver
Guest

If you mean it does not help predict the winners, that is obvious. It is not intended to do that. It is supposed to inform people where their preferences are likely to end up if they vote above the line. It is supposed to answer a very different question – not “who will win?”, but “am I comfortable with what will happen if I vote above the line?”

democracy@work
Guest

FreeD Sorry I don’t think your guide helps at all. Prefer to look at the table above to determine distribution.

Again a vote had to end up in one of two parties, the last elected or the wasted quota. (Droop)

TheSpeaker @ 26 I am with you. Whilst I think Wikileaks is in a good position to win against the Greens based on group preference deals in WA I think the media/Green smear spook campaign has diminished its chances of achieving the required 2-3% . They would need to man every both and run heavily on a Wiki not Green agenda. I have not seen them at the pre=poll… So I think they have lost. They should have targeted a few strategic key lower house seats.

As the last week unfolds you gain a feeling for the shifts in the electorate.

I do not share Truth’s assessment of the majors hold 85% of the vote in the Senate. This base is wrong. I would be looking at the bottom end of each parties expectations.

I am also aware that PUP has out-performed KAP and the Nationals.

SexP will continue to retain their base as will the Holy Trinity/four.

All these groups are organised and consistent. They need to be accommodated and this means the majors lose out.

The Greens could not trade or attack preferences as it has nothing to give. This is evident on the registered tickets.

The Greens argument about preference deals is hype. It may resonate with some naive voters.. it is not a reflection of policy or alliance. The Greens have cut a deal with PUP and they are also in contest with them in NSW/Qld. What does that say about the Greens? The ALP preferenced the Greens but are in conflict over Melbourne. The ALP should have issued a split ticket.

freediver
Guest

d@w, of course it works that way. I wrote it. I know how it works.

Would you mind taking a break from criticism to explain what you mean? You still appear to be confused about what the point of the guide is. It is not a prediction.

TheSpeaker
Guest

D@W – Truthseeker has 2% for KAP / PUP. Under-inflated if anything. The pollsters have PUP at 4% nationwide, PUP has constant prime-time TV commercials and candidates in every seat.

democracy@work
Guest

FFP , WKP , GRN , NP , LP , ALP A vote has to end up in one of these groups the ALP elect two. LNP three. Its then who will fill the last spot

I do not see the NP getting elected. Best bet is WKP or GRN
All votes end up either with the last candidate or the wasted quota

democracy@work
Guest

It does not work that way. For one you have left off wikileaks.

The table above shows all last standing candidates.

freediver
Guest

d@w, my “methodology” is to use truth’s predictions to restrict the candidate field to those with a chance of winning. Then I show people how the group ticket ranks that restricted field. That’s it. It is not intended to be a prediction of the outcome in the sense that truth’s work is. My intention is that people will use it to check the rankings of the parties that “matter”. You need to scroll up from the link I provided to see the explanation. If the explanations given are unclear or overstate what the information is then I am happy to revise them. Perhaps I am too optimistic, but I hoped people would apply a bit of common sense and check the first few rankings and make sure they are happy with all of them.

The yellow highlighting gets applied to the highest ranking party out of a slightly more restricted set – excluding those that truth indicated have less than 5% chance of winning (these are greyed out).

democracy@work
Guest

Wikileaks just need to survive Smokers and they are a contender.

democracy@work
Guest

Truth Yeah I have used you estimates and allocated WIkileaks 3% and dropped Greens t0 8.5% based on recent polls using Antony Greens Senate Calc, and Wikileaks is elected.

I think your estimates are reasonable but some are inflated and others devalued.

Sex will be closer to 3% The ALP will be around 30%

The Shooters and Fishing Lifestyle are the same group just split in two..

The focus groups Smokers, Motorists, Sports etc are a clever way of harvesting some of the disillusioned not bolted on demographics. I would be interested in knowing how is behind these groups

Yo also need to factor in a 0.5 to 1% above-the-line donkey vote which will advantage Smokers. They will do much better than 0.1%

I even get Wikileaks elected with just 2% of the vote

Wikileaks will take votes from the Greens which is why the Greens are worried.

democracy@work
Guest

Truth.. You have over inflated the Greens. Katter/PUP and the Democrats and under inflated wikileaks. Groups that are well known or well organised tend to secure around 2%. Also the LNP vote will be less due to the Latter/PUP and Shooters

Greens are polling around 8% not 11.5% I suggest you try shifting that to wikileaks and recalculate

wpDiscuz