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Federal Election 2013

Aug 30, 2013

Newspoll marginals polling: 7% swing in NSW, 4% in Victoria

Newspoll targets four regional NSW seats held by Labor plus one in Sydney, with only slightly better results for Labor than yesterday's all-Sydney poll.

James J relates that Newspoll has published two further aggregated marginal seats polls to join the survey of five Sydney seats published yesterday. One targets the four most marginal Labor seats in New South Wales outside Sydney – Dobell (5.1%), Robertson (1.0%), Page (4.2%) and Eden-Monaro (4.2%) – plus, somewhat messily, the Sydney seat of Kingsford Smith (UPDATE: It gets messier – the Dobell and Robertson component of the poll was conducted, and published, two weeks ago, while the remainder is new polling from the other three seats). The collective result is 53-47 to the Liberals, suggesting a swing of 7%. The primary votes are 48% for the Coalition and 36% for Labor. The other targets the three most marginal Labor seats in Victoria, Corangamite (0.3%), Deakin (0.6%) and La Trobe (1.7%), showing the Liberals with a 53-47 lead and suggesting a swing of about 4%. The primary votes are 34% for Labor and 47% for the Coalition. Each of the three has a sample of 800 and a margin of error of about 3.5%. The Australian’s display of all three seats of results including personal ratings and voter commitment numbers can be viewed here.

Also today:

• Morgan has a “multi-mode” poll conducted on Wednesday and Thursday by phone and internet, which is different from the normal face-to-face, SMS and internet series it publishes every Sunday or Monday. The poll appears to have had a sample of 574 telephone respondents supplemented by 1025 online responses. The poll has the Coalition leading 53-47 on two-party preferred with respondent-allocated preferences (54-46 on 2010 preferences) from primary votes of 30.5% for Labor, 44% for the Coalition and 12% for the Greens. Of the weighty 13.5% “others” component, Morgan informs us that the Palmer United Party has spiked to 4%. The Morgan release compares these figures directly with those in the weekly multi-mode result from Sunday night, but given the difference in method (and in particular the tendency of face-to-face polling to skew to Labor) I’m not sure how valid this is. Morgan also has personal ratings derived from the telephone component of the poll, which among other things have Tony Abbott ahead of Kevin Rudd as preferred prime minister.

• JWS Research has some scattered looking automated phone poll results from various Labor seats which include one piece of good news for Labor – a 57.2-42.8 lead for Kevin Rudd in Griffith, for a swing against Labor of a little over 1% – together with a rather greater amount of bad news: Wayne Swan trailing 53.8-46.2 in Lilley (a 7% swing), Chris Bowen trailing 53.1-46.9 in McMahon (11%), Rob Mitchell trailing 54.7-45.3 in his seemingly safe Melbourne fringe seat of McEwen (14%), and Labor hanging on to a 50.6-49.4 lead in Bendigo (9%), to be vacated by the retirement of Steve Gibbons.

• The latest Galaxy automated phone poll for The Advertiser targets Kate Ellis’s seat of Adelaide and gives Labor one of its better results from such polling, with Ellis leading her Liberal opponent 54-46. This suggests a swing to the Liberals of 3.5%. The samples in these polls have been about 550, with margins of error of about 4.2%.

UPDATE: Galaxy has a further two electorate-level automated poll results, showing the Liberal National Party well ahead in its Queensland marginals of Herbert (55-45) and Dawson (57-43).

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1325 comments

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Atalanta44
Guest

Mick 1147,

‘Sorry to dash hopes on the internal polling from “nudge-nudge wink-wink, never told a porkie in my life fraudster Rudd” but sportingbet now has Labor at 15.00 and Libs at 1.01. But what would they know .. it’s only their money at stake.’

Do you realise those odds are based on polls?

That’s precisely why they can’t be trusted.

River
Guest
[quote]That wasn’t stimulus in any real sense. Yes, the already stretched public finances of European countries and the US took a massive hit, but it was primarily from keeping their banks going[/quote] Figures, or your point is meaningless. What were the bailout numbers and prove your assertion that european economies took a massive hit from bailing out banks and not through stimulus measures. [quote]$2 trillion would be what 13% of US GDP alone? Is that a lot or a little – who cares, $2 trillion sounds like a lot and it’s “unprecedented”. Well, here’s a tip – the GFC is… Read more »
Jackol
Guest
River, ok now I know you don’t understand what you’re talking about – Countries put so much money in to stimulus that they went into severe debt. They couldn’t put any more money in. They were in so much debt that they’re now performing austerity. Do you understand the difference between pumping lots of public money into keeping banks open and stimulating an economy? Having banks closing their doors is very bad for economies, of course, so preventing this from happening stops “anti-stimulus” from a crisis in confidence in the banking system, but it’s not ‘stimulus’ in an economic sense.… Read more »
River
Guest
[quote]who have said that the comparative failure of many of the stimulus programs was that they weren’t large enough, delivered quickly enough, or weren’t targeted at the right areas.[/quote] The reports I’ve read say differently. They say things like this “But on the other hand, countries with higher GDP per capita (high income countries) were also the earliest responders.” and things like this “In response to the financial and economic crisis of 2008-09, most major economies embarked on an unprecedented level of fiscal expansion in the form of stimulus packages. Among the G20 countries alone, the size of fiscal stimulus… Read more »
Rossmore
Guest

Ban the Burqua …. for fucks sake … what next, ban goths, punks, nuns? I couldnt give a flying f**k what anyone wants to wear. If freedom means anything, it means wearing what you want to wear.

Jackol
Guest
River, I will post each country’s GFC response on this board and you will tell me why You keep saying that and not doing it. That would be because it would be a meaningless exercise. There are people – Krugman for one, whom I’m sure you have no time for at all – who have said that the comparative failure of many of the stimulus programs was that they weren’t large enough, delivered quickly enough, or weren’t targeted at the right areas. I’m not in a position to say that a stimulus of 2% of GDP was too small or… Read more »
zoidlord
Guest

Sean/1157

How much does Abbott earn? and his business mates?

River
Guest
[quote]To the extent that the pre-GFC positions limited the ability to apply stimulus, or diverted stimulus into bailing out banking systems, it makes sense to assess each country’s approach to stimulus differently. Context and all that.[/quote] You are right. Each country’s position should be assessed individually. So let’s go. I will post each country’s GFC response on this board and you will tell me why (and I’m quoting you here) each country’s stimulus package wasn’t large enough or targeted well enough. Because that is what you wrote. Like I said, I’m done playing games with you. Time to back it… Read more »
Jackol
Guest
River – Now who’s changing the goalposts. Just you. We are talking about the quality of each treasurer’s response to the GFC. We are, but inevitably that is in the context of the post-GFC situation of each economy. I was simply conceding that part of Australia’s economic health was related to pre-GFC conditions, and that many of the European economies had much worse budgetary positions and much more banking exposure to the GFC, and hence some of the poor post-GFC positions of these economies are related to the difference in pre-GFC positions. To the extent that the pre-GFC positions limited… Read more »
River
Guest
[quote]And yes, of course the pre-GFC conditions – budgetary positions, banking system exposure/vulnerability – had an impact on how countries weathered the GFC.[/quote] Now who’s changing the goalposts. We are talking about the quality of each treasurer’s response to the GFC. Budget positions, which may have been left to them via a previous Gov, banking system vulnerabilities etc don’t apply. [quote]However, you come out with glib lines listing a string of economies – all with varying stimulus program sizes and targeting – and say the only common factor is that they ‘weren’t expoesed’ to China while we were and therefore… Read more »
lefty e
Guest

[Brand 42-all PV]

Greens got 15% last time, with conservatve OTHs at around 5%.

Id say that puts Gray in ery much in the box seat, though I dont know whos running this time.

WA looking OK for ALP.

shellbell
Guest

The individual polls in SA and WA saying no movement of seats which is something Bludgertrack has been saying for at least several days.

Jackol
Guest

Germany’s especially.

And Germany emerged from the GFC in pretty good shape, certainly compared to other European countries.

And yes, of course the pre-GFC conditions – budgetary positions, banking system exposure/vulnerability – had an impact on how countries weathered the GFC.

However, you come out with glib lines listing a string of economies – all with varying stimulus program sizes and targeting – and say the only common factor is that they ‘weren’t expoesed’ to China while we were and therefore that is why we did well is bunkum. As you’ve admitted. But now want to change the goalposts again.

mari
Guest

MICK 77 1276
You can’t read either, where did I say anything about shares in my comment Give up while you are still able to. End of conversation I don’t interact with fools

confessions
Guest

Yes, I’ve just realised that now, thanks. 🙂

shellbell
Guest

GWV’s little white hands and fingers must be working overtime

GhostWhoVotes
Guest

Confessions at 1300,

Both Gary Gray and Donna Gordin has a primary vote of 42, according to Galaxy.

confessions
Guest

[GhostWhoVotes ‏@GhostWhoVotes 6m
#Galaxy Poll Seat of Brand Primary Votes: ALP 42 LIB 42 #ausvotes]

Primaries only. How odd.

lefty e
Guest

[@GhostWhoVotes: #Galaxy Poll 2 Party Preferred: ALP 47 (-1) L/NP 53 (+1)]

See, this is believable. National poll.

Gimme a seat poll next (preferably not robo)

And a “combo-marginal” last.

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