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Federal Election 2013

Aug 30, 2013

Newspoll: 9% swing in Sydney marginals

An 800-sample Newspoll survey supports an impression that Sydney alone stands to put victory beyond Labor's reach.

Newspoll today brings a poll from a sample of 800 respondents from the five most marginal Labor electorates in Sydney – Greenway (0.9%), Lindsay (1.1%), Banks (1.5%), Reid (2.7%) and Parramatta (4.4%) – which suggests the whole lot will be swept away, and perhaps others besides. Labor’s collective two-party preferred vote across the five seats is put at 43%, which compares with 52.1% at the 2010 election. The primary vote has Labor down from 43.2% to 34%, the Liberals up from 42.8% to 52%, the Greens down from 7.9% to 7% and “others” up from 6.1% to 7%. On two party preferred, Labor is down from 52.1% to 43%. Tony Abbott is also given better personal ratings (47% approval and 46% disapproval) than Kevin Rudd (37% and 55%), and leads 46-40 as preferred prime minister. The margin of error for the poll is about 3.5%. Full tables from GhostWhoVotes.

UPDATE: Kevin Bonham observes in comments: “These five were all surveyed by Galaxy which averaged 48:52 in the same electorates, via robopolling, with a much larger sample size, last week. It’s not likely voting intention has moved anything like five points in a week. So either someone has a house effect or someone (most likely Newspoll) has an inaccurate sample.”

UPDATE 2 (Galaxy Adelaide poll): The latest Galaxy automated phone poll for The Advertiser targets Kate Ellis’s seat of Adelaide and gives Labor one of its better results from such polling, with Ellis leading her Liberal opponent 54-46. This suggests a swing to the Liberals of 3.5%. The samples in these polls have been about 550, with margins of error of about 4.2%.

UPDATE 3 (Morgan poll): Morgan has a “multi-mode” poll conducted on Wednesday and Thursday by phone and internet, which is different from the normal face-to-face, SMS and internet series it publishes every Sunday or Monday. The poll appears to have had a sample of 574 telephone respondents supplemented by 1025 online responses. The poll has the Coalition leading 53-47 on two-party preferred with respondent-allocated preferences (54-46 on 2010 preferences) from primary votes of 30.5% for Labor, 44% for the Coalition and 12% for the Greens. Of the weighty 13.5% “others” component, Morgan informs us that the Palmer United Party has spiked to 4%. The Morgan release compares these figures directly with those in the weekly multi-mode result from Sunday night, but given the difference in method (and in particular the tendency of face-to-face polling to skew to Labor) I’m not sure how valid this is. Morgan also has personal ratings derived from the telephone component of the poll.

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1483 comments

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guytaur
Guest

Good Morning

Well here is an admission.

He knows costings are costing.

“@latikambourke: OL Tony Abbott believes this is a ‘very close election’ and the polls will tighten. #AusVotes”

geoffrey
Guest

So that’s it Mr Paine after all Rudd rooting you have done …

Utopia
Guest

I hope it aint a 6.9% swing at the election, then my predictions will be way off!

That would give 104 to 43 with 3 indies.

Kevin Bonham
Guest

matt31@1477

Do I recall correctly that this is the second time Dobell has been included in one of these grouped polls? Convenient much when we all know who has been in that seat?

Yes, there was a previous Robertson and Dobell combined poll.

Rational Leftist
Guest

[Doesn’t matter how you see it, it matters how the public see it.]

Actually, that statement is spot on.

matt31
Guest

Do I recall correctly that this is the second time Dobell has been included in one of these grouped polls? Convenient much when we all know who has been in that seat?

Utopia
Guest

Thanks JJ:

More data
More sem sem

zoidlord
Guest

@Kevin/1474

I 100% agree, and they still come at 53-47!

Kevin Bonham
Guest

J341983@1466

Lol combining those seats makes even less sense than the W.Sydney poll lol

They are the remaining NSW marginals after excluding W Sydney so they do have some use. All the same I find these aggregated marginal polls frustrating when they include a mix of live seats and writeoffs.

davidwh
Guest

Thanks James.

Henry
Guest

is that it James J??

New2This
Guest

Now we discuss labor corruption in NSW…

zoidlord
Guest
confessions
Guest

Why would you chuck Kingsford Smith in with those seats?

Henry
Guest

Very very good Andrew Leigh – totally nailed the poodle.

New2This
Guest

Poor Andrew Leigh… It’s lonely in the saddle since the horse died…

J341983
Guest

Lol combining those seats makes even less sense than the W.Sydney poll lol

the spectator
Guest

Pyne has nothing to offer anymore he really should make way for someone else.

imacca
Guest

[I guess it is me and the electorate ]

No, only you and those in the electorate stupid enough to vote for the Coalition.

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