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Federal Election 2013

Sep 1, 2013

Newspoll: 54-46 to Coalition

A week out from polling day, Newspoll gives Labor the same two-party preferred vote it had at the corresponding moment of the 1996 campaign.

GhostWhoVotes tweets the latest weekly campaign Newspoll has the Coalition leading 54-46, up from 53-47 last week. Labor’s primary vote, which was up three last week, is this week down four to 33%, with the Coalition down one to 46% and the Greens up one to 10%. It follows that “others”, which was down three in last week’s poll, is this week up four. Tony Abbott has hit the lead as preferred prime minister, Rudd’s 54-40 lead last week turning into a 43-41 deficit. Rudd has also hit a new low on his net personal ratings, his approval down four to 32% and disapproval up six to 58%. Tony Abbott is down one to 41% and up two to 51%. The sample size on the poll is the normal size, in this case 1116.

Morgan has also reported its weekly multi-mode poll, this one from a sample of 3746 respondents contacted by face-to-face, online and SMS surveying, which has the Labor primary vote at 34% (down half a point), the Coalition down two to 43% and the Greens unchanged at 11%. This pans out to 52-48 on two-party preferred according to the Morgan’s headline respondent-allocated preferences figure (down from 53-47 last week), and 52.5-47.5 on the more usually favoured previous election preferences method (down from 54-46). It’s interesting to observe that Morgan concurs with Newspoll in finding a spike in the “others” vote, up 2.5% to 12%. Morgan particularly spruiks a result of 4% for the Palmer United Party nationally and 7.5% in Queensland, suggesting Clive Palmer’s intensive television advertising might be achieving results.

BludgerTrack has been updated with both sets of results, including the state breakdowns from Morgan, causing the two-party preferred to shift 0.7% in favour of the Coalition, and the Coalition to gain seats on the seat projection in New South Wales, Victoria and Western Australia, while losing one in South Australia.

UPDATE: Finally, Essential Research jumps on board, breaking with its normal form to publish weekly results from throughout the campaign rather than its fortnightly rolling averages. The latest week’s sample has the Coalition leading 53-47, out from 51-49 a week ago (the published 50-50 being down to a stronger result for Labor the previous week), with primary votes on 44% for the Coalition (up one), 35% for Labor (down one) and 10% for the Greens (down one).

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2024 comments

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Oakeshott Country
Guest

Those figures are assuming there is a KAP candidate in each Qld electorate but as there are a few seats without a candidate the % pv would be a little higher.

Oakeshott Country
Guest

An interesting thing about a party like Katter’s is the concentration of votes.
Assuming the state wide pv is 4% and that Katter will get a personal pv of 50% in Kennedy and given that there are 29 seats in Qld. The average vote for Katter’s party in the other 28 seats is about 2%. However If we guess that Katter will get something like 10% in another 3 NQ seats. In which case the party vote in the remaining 25 seats is a derisory 1.4%

ruawake
Guest

Time to dump prefs based on last election yet?

[Asked how they would allocate second preferences, 86 per cent of Greens voters nominated Labor, with a surprisingly high 62 per cent of PUP backers favouring Labor and even Katter’s Australian Party voters mostly leaning towards Labor with 55 per cent.]

Read more: http://www.theage.com.au/federal-politics/federal-election-2013/kevin-rudd-not-getting-the-numbers-in-qld-20130902-2t167.html#ixzz2dlWsRRMh

Oakeshott Country
Guest

The difference between 55% and 40% of KAP preferencing Labor is 6 people

Oakeshott Country
Guest

SMH has given the poll numbers as 1000
So the number who nominated PUP as 1st preferance is 80
The difference between 62% preferencing Labor and 50% is 9 people. And the difference between Labor 2PPs of 45 and 47 is 20 people. This puts the MOE in some perspective.

It reminds me of an old Patrick Cook cartoon during the Joh gerrymander where two Qld farmers are talking and 1says “you might be right”. The title of the cartoon in “Massive swing in Queensland”

CTar1
Guest

davidwh

QLD confusing?

Same, same.

davidwh
Guest

There is also a report in the Courier-Mail regarding a Newspoll of QLD seats indicating Labor will lose 3 or 4 of their QLD seats so it looks like the QLD situation will remain confusing until Saturday night sometime.

zoidlord
Guest

If we do get more than QLD stats, then it be tomorrow more likely.

lefty e
Guest

I can’t recall the previous QLD poll figure Mick – but 2010 was I think 44 ALP

But like I’ve been saying: with minor parties rising in QLD, the 2PPs are wild guesswork. The fact they’ve asked PUP and KAP voters is something – but on the day HTVs could influence another way.

When’s the fed Nielsen? Or do we only get QLD?

mexicanbeemer
Guest

There is another way of looking at Qld its 53/47

In 1996 didn’t Howard win Qld 60/40

Socrates
Guest
An excellent piece from Nobel prize winning economist Joseph Stiglitz on why Abbott’s cuts really should be a concern. They could cost 90,000 jobs. [Australia may have successfully dodged the global crisis, but some politicians seem to have missed the lessons it taught the rest of the world. In this election, the conservative side of politics has foreshadowed substantial cuts to the government budget. This would be a grave mistake, especially now. Recent experience around the world suggests that austerity can have devastating consequences, and especially so for fragile economies. Government cuts have helped push Britain, Spain and Greece’s economies… Read more »
zoidlord
Guest

@Mick77/2010

Meguire Bob is like comedy relief for PB.

Tom the first and best
Guest
Tom the first and best

2008

The ALP were only 11% behind the LNP on 2PP in 2010 in Kennedy.

http://results.aec.gov.au/15508/Website/HouseDivisionFirstPrefs-15508-167.htm

Katter left the Nats in about 2001 (that is over a decade ago).

Kennedy has been held either by a Katter or an ALP MP since 1929. That includes it being held by Rob Hulls (who has since been Attorney-General of Victoria) for the ALP 1990-1993. Katter Senior only got it off the ALP in the 1996 landslide.

Mick77
Guest

Ok – just saw the comparison point thanks to zoidlord.

So it’s all about KAP and PUP prefs- nah don’t believe that they’ll favour ALP so my guess is that it’s still about 45/55 in qld. And anyway Mr PB popularity Meguire Bob told me never to believe the polls.

zoidlord
Guest

Well 2PP on BludgerTracker is 44.5% in Queensland.

So 53/47 should be tad better?

Sean Tisme
Guest

[KAP pref figure is quite believable. Katter’s seat is labor, but for him]

Please don’t make shit up:
http://www.abc.net.au/elections/federal/2010/guide/kenn.htm

It’s a Nationals seat but for him… especially when you consider he WAS the Nationals member until recently

Labor barely even registers in Kennedy.

Tom the first and best
Guest
Tom the first and best

We shall find out the Queensland result after the election. It is hard to predict beforehand because of all the complications.

New2This
Guest

Good for labor…

wal kolla
Guest

Status quo.
31 pv is not great

Mick77
Guest
lefty e [53 seems to be the wider consensus. It’ll close a bit from there too!] You would say that … looking for a drop to 52.7 i believe 😀 – but ain’t gonna happen! btw lefty, I haven’t followed qld at all on its own. What does this poll compare with, say 2010 2PP or previous Nielsen (or other pollster) Qld only? The odds jumped to 17 the moment this poll appeared, admittedly only from 16 but I think Swan’s odds may have come out a bit and he’s barely favourite in lilley now 1.70/2.05. Bowen looking worse by… Read more »
Edi_Mahin
Guest

So this poll is good news for Labor?

wal kolla
Guest

Hence Kenny’s assertion that rudd hasn’t lifted qld.

Thanks Ghosty,
Do you have any observations about the raft of erratic polls in QLD? Seat level and federal-state level?

lefty e
Guest

That seems more believable GWV: though perhaps a bit low for KAP.

imacca
Guest

Watching QANDA in W.A. at the moment. I have to admit i would find it remarkably interesting to see :monkey: get even a small dose of the questioning that has been tossed at Rudd, particularly to the kind of stabs delivered by Tony Jones.

Would be hilarious. Peta would have to intervene i think.

lefty e
Guest

PUP and KAP are the reason the QLD 2PPs are essentially unknowns, yes. But hey, that’s apparently what the PUP said when asked. Surprising tho.

KAP pref figure is quite believable. Katter’s seat is labor, but for him

GhostWhoVotes
Guest

wal kolla at 1996,

A third calculation of the 2PP provided by Nielsen where KAP & PUP prefs are divided 50/50 and the rest distributed as per the 2010 election puts the 2PP at 45/55.

mimhoff
Guest

What if I allocate the preferences the way I really really want them to go?

wal kolla
Guest

Ghosty, if you treat kap and pup as others what happens?

wal kolla
Guest

Lefty- i wouldnt get excited just yet. I still only count 39% for alp and greens- which is probably backwards. PUP supporters may be the reason for the weird polling on the electorate and state levels in qld.

lefty e
Guest

Palmers prefacing LNP so that figure might drop. But KAP preffing labor

lefty e
Guest

Even 46 (which seems more believable) would be good news.

zoidlord
Guest

Ghost any other states other than QLD?

lefty e
Guest

47 in QLD would see ALP up quite a few seats.

That’s unqualified good news. About freakin time!

J341983
Guest

There’s a reason why Rudd’s been in Herbert and Longman…

Tom the first and best
Guest
Tom the first and best

The KAP got 11% in the state election, is it the competition from the PUP or has the KAP done something to upset people?

wal kolla
Guest

Palmers HTV cards are lab or lnp first in qld?

GhostWhoVotes
Guest

The Nielsen poll is 47-53 for respondent allocated prefs or 46-54 for KAP & PUP allocated prefs and the rest distributed as per the last election.

zoidlord
Guest

@MB/1984

Indeed.

lefty e
Guest

Oh shit, you’re right!

47 is great for the ALP in QLD.

Mine eyes deceived me.

It is a bit hard to see from that primary though. Odd.

mexicanbeemer
Guest

Zoidlord,

Interesting preference flows.

I suspect many PUP voters are Liberal voters that are unhappy with Campbell Newman hence the reason for them then flowing to the ALP

The Katter vote will mostly come from unhappy ALP and former National Party voters who can’t stand the LNP

Both could apply to both Katter and Pup

wal kolla
Guest

The alp on 31 would get to 44% in normal courses of events.
But the green vote is low!

lefty e
Guest

I officially don’t believe Newspoll’s 54 at this point.

53 seems to be the wider consensus. It’ll close a bit from there too!

J341983
Guest

No, they’re the QLD TPP at the federal level…

wal kolla
Guest

A fishy poll award 😛

2/3 of clive palmers supporters supporting the alp? Its just doesn’t follow.
However QLD polling has been bizzare. I don’t know whats really going on there.

geoffrey
Guest

O there seems guesswork in polling .. mine is taken from night creatures .. also hope

lefty e
Guest

The federal figure is 53-47.

Those are QLD primaries.

Puff, the Magic Dragon.
Guest
Puff, the Magic Dragon.

DavidW2035 @DavidW2035

I got stuck in traffic today and you wouldn’t believe it, bloody asylum seeker boats all over the road, so I bought them #4corners #auspol
8:47 PM – 2 Sep 2013

lefty e
Guest

[GhostWhoVotes ‏@GhostWhoVotes 32s
62% of PUP voters & 55% of KAP voters said they would preference ALP. #Nielsen #ausvotes]

Wow – I would tv have expected PUP voters to pref ALP so strongly.
There goes Morgans crazy talk of a 75 style result on the back of PUP votes.

J341983
Guest

If true, it’ll make FNQ very interesting

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