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Federal Election 2013

Sep 7, 2013

Newspoll and Nielsen: 54-46; Morgan: 53.5-46.5

Three more big-sample polls for those of you still wondering what the next three years might have in store. Alternatively, you could just wait a couple of hours.

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The last of the major polls go as follows:

• A Newspoll survey conducted on Wednesday and Thursday from over 2500 respondents has Labor on 33%, the Coalition on 46% and the Greens on 9%, for a commanding Coalition lead of 54-46 on two-party preferred. Full breakdowns here.

• Nielsen concurs with Newspoll on both major parties’ primary votes in its poll of 1431 respondents conducted on Wednesday and Thursday, but has the Greens two points higher at 11%. Both The Age and the Sydney Morning Herald have exasperatingly declined to provide breakdowns, but from what I can gather from the printed copy, the poll has the Coalition ahead 56-44 in New South Wales and behind 51-49 in Victoria, while in Queensland Labor’s primary vote is on just 27% (under two Senate quotas, for those of you with an eye on that kind of thing).

• Morgan has a poll of 4937 respondents conducted by SMS, online and live interview phone polling which has Labor at just 31.5%, with the Coalition on 44%, the Greens on 10.5% and the Palmer United Party on 6.5%. This pans out to 53.5-46.5 on respondent-allocated preferences, but to 54.5-45.5 on the previous election preferences method used by Nielsen and Newspoll.

BludgerTrack has been updated with all of the above, and it continues to offer a rosier assessment for Labor than the betting markets in particular would suggest (though note that I’ve knocked on the head my idea of revising the preference model to grant Labor a bigger share of the Palmer United Party vote in Queensland, which has made two seats’ difference). As I’ve noted a number of times, this is mostly down to the consistent tendency of electorate-level polling to produce worse results for Labor than that national and statewide polling that are the bread and butter of BludgerTrack. To illustrate this point, and also for your general convenience, I offer below a complete listing to all such polls published during the campaign. Averages are also provided for the swings in each state, and by each pollster. What this suggests is that the automated phone polling by Galaxy, which has generally produced highly plausible results, has not been too far out of line with national polling, and it has generally offered highly plausible results. The live interview phone polling of Newspoll looks to have performed similarly, but that’s because its sample includes the unusual cases of New England and Lyne. Beyond that three automated phone pollsters who are relatively new to the game, and whose consistent findings of huge Coalition swings should accordingly be treated with caution.

Key: NP=Newspoll, RT=ReachTEL, Gal.=Galaxy, Lon.=Lonergan, JWS=JWS Research.

NEW SOUTH WALES
				N	ALP	L-NP	GRN	2PP	SWING
Dobell/RobertsonNP	13/8	505	35	50	8	46	-7
Lindsay		Lon.	14/8	1038	32	60	3	36	-15
Lyne		NP	14/8	504	26	51	7	41	+3
New England	NP	14/8	504	24	53	5	34	+1
Kingsford Smith	RT	15/8	610	38	47	10	48	-7
McMahon		RT	15/8	631	45	50	2	47	-11
Blaxland	RT	15/8	636	50	47	3	52	-10
Bennelong	RT	15/8	631	28	64	8	35	-12
Macquarie	JWS	15/8	710	35	51	8	45	-4
Lindsay		JWS	15/8	578	35	57	3	39	-12
Greenway	JWS	15/8	570	44	46	1	51	0
Banks		JWS	15/8	542	43	50	4	47	-4
Werriwa		Gal.	20/8	548	41	48	5	48	-9
Reid		Gal.	20/8	557	38	50	9	47	-6
Parramatta	Gal.	20/8	561	44	45	4	50	-4
Lindsay		Gal.	20/8	566	41	50	3	46	-5
Greenway	Gal.	20/8	585	45	46	3	49	-2
Barton		Gal.	20/8	551	44	44	9	52	-5
Banks		Gal.	20/8	557	40	47	6	48	-3
Barton		Gal.	20/8	575	44	44	9	52	-5
Banks		Gal.	20/8	575	40	47	6	48	-3
K-S/Page/E-M	NP	26/8	601	37	47	11	48	-7
ALP marginals*	NP	26/8	800	34	52	7	43	-9
McMahon		JWS	28/8	482	44	52	3	47	-11

Average swing								-6.1

* Parramatta/Reid/Banks/Lindsay/Greenway.								

VICTORIA
				N	ALP	L-NP	GRN	2PP	SWING
Deakin		RT	15/8	619	36	50	13	47	-4
Corangamite	RT	15/8	633	36	54	10	44	-6
Melbourne	RT	15/8	860	35	24	35
Indi		RT	15/8	611	18	47	6
Corangamite	JWS	15/8	587	36	48	10	47	-3
Aston		JWS	15/8	577	29	59	8	37	-12
La Trobe	Gal.	20/8	575	36	45	12	49	-3
Corangamite	Gal.	20/8	575	35	52	9	44	-6
Chisholm	Gal.	20/8	575	46	45	7	48	-8
ALP marginals*	NP	28/8	800	34	47	13	47	-4
McEwen		JWS	28/8	540	35	47	6	45	-14
Bendigo		JWS	28/8	588	40	40	9	51	-9

Average swing								-6.9

* La Trobe/Deakin/Corangamite								

QUEENSLAND
				N	ALP	L-NP	GRN	2PP	SWING
Griffith	RT	05/8	702	48	43	8	46	-12
Forde		RT	08/8	725	40	48	4	46	-2
Forde		Lon.	15/8	1160	34	56	4	40	-8
Forde		JWS	15/8	568	33	54	4	40	-8
Brisbane	JWS	15/8	607	36	50	9	46	-3
LNP marginals*	NP	20/8	1382	32	54	5	40	-8
Forde		NP	20/8	502	38	48	5	46	-2
Griffith	Lon.	21/8	958	38	47	11	48	-10
Griffith	NP	22/8	500	37	48	12	48	-10
Lilley		JWS	28/8	757	40	48	5	46	-7
Griffith	JWS	28/8	551	48	40	7	57	-1
Blair		Gal.	29/8	604	39	40	8	50	-4
Dawson		Gal.	29/8	550	34	48	4	43	-5
Griffith	Gal.	29/8	655	41	37	12	54	-4
Herbert		Gal.	29/8	589	36	47	6	45	-3
ALP marginals**	NP	30/8	800	38	42	8	49	-4

Average swing								-5.9

* Brisbane/Forde/Longman/Herbert/Dawson/Bonner/Flynn/Fisher
** Moreton/Petrie/Lilley/Capricornia/Blair/Rankin/Oxley								

WESTERN AUSTRALIA
				N	ALP	L-NP	GRN	2PP	SWING
Brand		Gal.	29/8	660	42	42	10	52	-1
Hasluck		Gal.	29/8	553	34	46	10	45	-4
Perth		Gal.	29/8	550	47	35	13	58	+2

Average swing								-1.2								

SOUTH AUSTRALIA
				N	ALP	L-NP	GRN	2PP	SWING
Hindmarsh	Gal.	22/8	586	41	44	10	50	-6
Wakefield	Gal.	26/8	575	44	35	7	55	-6
Adelaide	Gal.	29/8	571	40	39	12	54	-4

Average swing								-5.0

TASMANIA
				N	ALP	L-NP	GRN	2PP	SWING
Bass		RT	22/8	541	30	52	8	42	-15
Braddon		RT	22/8	588	36	51	4	43	-14
Denison		RT	22/8	563	19	24	11	
Franklin	RT	22/8	544	30	39	16	51	-10
Lyons		RT	22/8	549	30	47	11	44	-18
Bass		RT	03/9	659	28	54	10	41	-16

Average swing								-14.7

AVERAGE SWING BY POLLSTER
				N	 	 	 	 	SWING
Galaxy				22					-4.3
Newspoll			10					-4.7
JWS Research			13					-6.8
ReachTEL			16					-8.6
Lonergan			3					-11.3

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973 comments

973 thoughts on “Newspoll and Nielsen: 54-46; Morgan: 53.5-46.5

  1. New2This

    Clean up Australia Day is here… 🙂

  2. Radguy

    You mean like with a loaded dice?

  3. stan speaker

    Welcome back to tHe dark ages Australia.

  4. rummel

    [1
    New2This
    Posted Saturday, September 7, 2013 at 5:13 am | PERMALINK
    Clean up Australia Day is here… ]

    🙂 happy Election Day .

  5. Radguy

    After ruminating for quite a bit, I have found my and my families interests are best served by putting a 1 above the line for the Pirate Party. They have a highly admirable platform, the best that I have seen.

  6. Radguy

    “Die” for the pedants.

  7. Luke Miller

    Just voted at the consulate in Chicago!

    From overseas looking in I think it has actually been a fairly nuanced election. Underneath the hyperbole, all the major parties are basically in consensus about a mixed-market economic model I suspect most citizens are happy with and the debate is how to most efficiently raise and spend tax dollars. Not many countries get that level of competency.

    I don’t mind the ALP this time round but I completely understand why a lot of people are over them. Voters are smart – they know what they want – so we’ll see!

    To all the volunteers working the polling places handing out HTVs today – thanks! Unsung heroes of our democracy. Hopefully one day we can just put a booklet of HTVs inside each voting booth and save all that paper.

    Now I just need to find a live feed of the ABC in about 13 hours!

  8. meher baba

    And so we reach a day in our history which will be less edifying than most.

    A landslide victory of epic proportions to a party with a relatively weak leadership team which has not prepared well over the past six years for a return to office (and with perhaps one their main saving graces, Arthur Sinodinos, likely to miss out on a Senate seat because he is running third behind two other candidates I imagine 95% of you couldn’t even name). It is led by a man who – despite being 55 years old – is strangely immature in some respects and whose key political and moral drivers (which he has tried very hard to keep hidden) are not aligned to those of most Australians or even those of most Coalition supporters. As we have seen with the PPL, it’s the “left wing” side of Tony that brings him into conflict with his party. Expect to see more of that.

    But good luck to the Libs: they’ve run a brilliant strategy for four years. We have seen a lot of the likes of Bruce Hawker and Simon Banks and other so-called political strategists strut around on endless TV panels. But, seriously, they don’t deserve to lick the boots of the husband and wife team of Brian Loughnane and Peta Credlin: especially when you consider the doubtful raw material these two had to work with.

    Labor, of course, has self-destructed. Bringing back Rudd does not appeared to have “saved the furniture”. Maybe Labor will lose 22 seats tonight, but could have lost 25 under Gillard. I guess that
    might comfort a few people (I especially the three who hold on to their seats). But how would Labor have gone without Rudd and his hangers-on constantly undermining Gillard. The Libs learnt from the Howard-Peacock era and maintained a tight discipline. Labor looked like a divided rabble. And look what’s happened.

    Of course, some might ask where Labor would be now if they hasn’t removed Rudd in 2010? It’s a good question in some respects, but most people who were on the inside in those days would assure you that – after two and a half years in the job – Rudd was leading the country, and Labor, nowhere. Now he’s come back to finish the job of taking Labor there. The rest of us get Tony.

    Where now for Labor? As I have suggested before, since 1996 the party has clung ever more tightly to its declining industrial and factional base, and largely driven away the educated middle class element that flooded into the party in the Whitlam era and flourished under Hawke-Keating. This element has increasingly shifted to the Greens. I spend a fair bit of time in universities and I find that the people who teach our kids and their most impressionable ages divide between an emerging younger group of IPA-style ideological rightists and a larger , but older, group of baby boomers and gen X types who almost all vote Green. There don’t seem to be a lot of mainstream Labor supporters around campuses nowadays.

    Who will lead Labor next week? To mix a couple of Shakesperian allusions, I do prophesy the election lights on Bill “et tu Brutus” Shorten: who has been puffed by Victorian Labor insiders as a future PM for the best part of 15 years. To me, he seems to be a bit of a show pony and a bit of a policy lightweight (outside of the disability area, where he performed very well). He also has a rather annoying sort of pipsqueak voice. But there aren’t a lot of other options ATM, and one thing Shorten does have is a lot of poise in front of the cameras, which will help him. But he certainly needs to patch things up with Conroy.

    He also needs a good strategist. I wonder how much Peta would want to switch sides?

  9. rummel

    The Australian is running leaks from Labor HQ, laying Blame squarely on Kevin Rudd .

    Pass the pop corn, tomorrow will be fun.

  10. stan speaker

    Election coverage on ABC 24 is available world wide on the Internet for all of us expats and travellers overseas.

  11. shellbell

    I will get in early and congratulate you on you work over the several last weeks, William.

  12. River

    [quote]9.The Australian is running leaks from Labor HQ, laying Blame squarely on Kevin Rudd .[/quote]

    Yeah. According to Newscorp, Labor is exasperated with the return of ‘Old Kevin’.

  13. Fran Barlow

    [
    Just like how left-wing hacks view everyone on the right as racist, inbred rednecks or slimy tax-dodging lawyers.]

    False equivalence Carey …

  14. Fran Barlow

    [
    Just like how left-wing hacks view everyone on the right as racist, inbred rednecks or slimy tax-dodging lawyers.]

    False equivalence Carey …

  15. rummel

    [11
    shellbell
    Posted Saturday, September 7, 2013 at 6:05 am | PERMALINK
    I will get in early and congratulate you on you work over the several last weeks, William.]

    I will second that and add a thanks for another election running PB.

  16. Al Dente

    The only poll that counts is…oh, right. 😀

  17. Meguire Bob

    rummel
    Posted Saturday, September 7, 2013 at 6:01 am | PERMALINK
    The Australian is running leaks from Labor HQ, laying Blame squarely on Kevin Rudd .
    ———–

    newsltd still spreading propaganda

    doesnt look good for its puppett abbott today mitt romney feel like

  18. Luke Miller

    Thanks stanspeaker@10 I was hoping that would be the case

  19. Fran Barlow

    meher baba:

    [Of course, some might ask where Labor would be now if they hasn’t removed Rudd in 2010? ]

    Far better than they stand now. Of course, they could have removed him prior to 2010 or after 2010 or indeed have chosen someone else — almost anyone else — in 2006 and stood even better.

  20. Meguire Bob

    so far we know rummel , Sean Tisme, Mod Lib

    are or have already voted for labor

    i will be voting for labor today and trying to convince people todo the same 🙂

  21. Fran Barlow

    Yes, well done Mr Bowe.

    I’m certain that both your substantive contributions here and your moderation would be demanding tasks. You do this with AIUI no significant tangible reward, and for mine, do it very well.

    Thanks …

    (I’m sure you’d have preferred 1500 words with sub-heads but I’m off to a different “PB” today to render service so this will have to do. 😉 )

  22. Meguire Bob

    take away the pro coalition media polls big margin of error

    labor primary will be 37-39%

    Coalition 42-43%

    labor retain government

    i am very confidence

  23. River

    [quote]Far better than they stand now. Of course, they could have removed him prior to 2010 or after 2010 or indeed have chosen someone else — almost anyone else — in 2006 and stood even better.[/quote]

    If Rudd hadn’t been removed in 2010, nothing would be done. Gillard was the one who introduced the NDIS, the NBN, Gonski and whatever else Labor did. Rudd was resposible for fuelwatch, grocery watch, and a laptop for every child.

    Getting rid of Rudd in 2010 was the correct move, the biggest mistake they made was failing to kill him off. Because of that, Rudd was able to distabilise enough to cause a minority Gov last election and the rest was history.

    [quote]I will second that and add a thanks for another election running PB.[/quote]

    Thirded.

  24. Kirky

    MB,

    I admire your enthusiasm and positivity but you really will need some help tonight. A good bottle f Hentley Farm wine will do it for you.

    Not sure which disaster to watch tonight – Abbott winning or Port get flogged – rather the latter happen than the former!

  25. meher baba

    There was one point I forgot to make in my mini-essay above, which is that – with the ALP having driven its non-machine (ie: non-union/non-factional) element away during the 1990s and 2000s – they arguably needed to bring in a leader like Rudd to provide a sort of veneer of Whitlam era-style middle class intellectuality to broaden Labor’s appeal. Beazley had played something of a similar role, and even Latham for a short while. One of Gillard’s main problem was that she looked and, especially, sounded like Woody Guthrie’s “union maid”. She was actually a more independent thinker than that, but she struggled to get that side across to the public.

    This is where Shorten will struggle a bit too: people look at him and see a union official. The only out-and-out union official who has been politically popular in living memory was Hawke: and he was anything but your average union official.

    Several other suggested future Labor leaders – eg, Albo, Bowen and even Burke – also smell strongly of the machine

    The two current senior Federal Labor politicians who do have something of a different aura about them are Jason Clare and Tanya Plibersek. Not a bad leader/deputy team in my book, even if they both come from NSW. Of course, Clare is in trouble in his seat.

    It will probably end up being Shorten/Plibersek or Shorten/Albo: but the latter is far too machine-like.

    The Labor left and right factions made a terrible mistake during the 90s in driving all the “trendies” out of the party. Not because there are lots of these people: as we can see from the Greens polling, they are 10 per cent of the polulation. But their strong presence in the ALP from the mid-60s through to the mid-90s broadened its appeal and softened its image. The old blue collar vote is declining, and the younger generation of tradies is becoming rich through the mines and rather likes Abbott.

    Labor must change tack or else wither away slowly.

  26. Bobalot

    This is hilarious. Kevin Rudd and his supporters have been undermining his own party with leaks for YEARS and have a big responsibility for the bad much of the bad polling Gillard was getting and now they did barely better.

    Disregarding the headline grabbing outliers. Labor under Gillard were sitting on 46-54. I wonder how well they could have done if Kevin Rudd and his supporters weren’t leaking and destabilizing the party.

  27. Bobalot

    meher baba@25

    There was one point I forgot to make in my mini-essay above, which is that – with the ALP having driven its non-machine (ie: non-union/non-factional) element away during the 1990s and 2000s – they arguably needed to bring in a leader like Rudd to provide a sort of veneer of Whitlam era-style middle class intellectuality to broaden Labor’s appeal. Beazley had played something of a similar role, and even Latham for a short while. One of Gillard’s main problem was that she looked and, especially, sounded like Woody Guthrie’s “union maid”. She was actually a more independent thinker than that, but she struggled to get that side across to the public.

    This is where Shorten will struggle a bit too: people look at him and see a union official. The only out-and-out union official who has been politically popular in living memory was Hawke: and he was anything but your average union official.

    Several other suggested future Labor leaders – eg, Albo, Bowen and even Burke – also smell strongly of the machine

    The two current senior Federal Labor politicians who do have something of a different aura about them are Jason Clare and Tanya Plibersek. Not a bad leader/deputy team in my book, even if they both come from NSW. Of course, Clare is in trouble in his seat.

    It will probably end up being Shorten/Plibersek or Shorten/Albo: but the latter is far too machine-like.

    The Labor left and right factions made a terrible mistake during the 90s in driving all the “trendies” out of the party. Not because there are lots of these people: as we can see from the Greens polling, they are 10 per cent of the polulation. But their strong presence in the ALP from the mid-60s through to the mid-90s broadened its appeal and softened its image. The old blue collar vote is declining, and the younger generation of tradies is becoming rich through the mines and rather likes Abbott.

    Labor must change tack or else wither away slowly.

    I agree. However, there is an exception to the rule there. A union man who could have done well was Greg Combet, but he’s gone as well. Thanks, Kevin.

  28. triton

    Morning.
    I wonder if there have been worse polls for a government on the eve of an election.

  29. Meguire Bob

    Kirky @ 24

    do not take the media opinion polls as facts , they are propaganda

  30. Meguire Bob

    Triton

    Tonight will be class as labor’s best victory ever , despite newsltd/abbott coalition attempts

    labor retain government

  31. Fran Barlow

    Coming out of today’s likely gut-wrenching loss for the ALP, I do believe they need to

    a) take reform of party processes attending member recruitment, internal governance and integrity, policy development and candidate selection seriously.

    b) make it their aim to be a party of the consistently centre-left rather than the centre-right

    If they were to shift in social policy — gay marriage, euthanasia, drug law reform, asylum seekers, — they would look a good deal more progressive even if they changed not a thing in fiscal policy. If they could junk surplus fetishism — and Abbott himself seems to have abandoned that before even achieving government, they’d save themselves a lot of policy grief.

  32. Kirky

    Bobalot,

    Spot on, late last year Julia was level pegging with the Coalition until Rudd started again. Totally destructive influence on the party for past three years!

    One thing I want is for him to lose his seat with the party to only lose around 10 seats. Get rid of the white ant.

  33. stan speaker

    It’s down to preference flows that will determine TPP, with so many minor parties with a substantial aggregate vote it is fluid so lots to wait for and watch after 6pm.

  34. Mark the Ballot

    Latest update: http://bit.ly/17EKfmd

    My prediction? Yesterday I thought it might be in the high 50s for the number of seats won by Labor. Today, with this latest suite of polls, I suspect the low 50s for Labor is more likely. But the high 40s cannot be ruled out.

  35. meher baba

    Meguire Bob. Don’t listen to kirky@24. Hentley Farm wine won’t do the job tonight. I think you need to get your hands on some Acapulco Gold.

    (On second thoughts, having read your predictions this morning, perhaps you already did!!)

  36. Bobalot

    Fran Barlow@31

    … If they were to shift in social policy …asylum seekers… they’d save themselves a lot of policy grief.

    I’m not sure what fantasyland you live in. Most people (like as in 80%) are totally against a more generous asylum seeker policy.

    The ALP are not going to become the Greens on this. On this issue, they are simply reflecting the public will.

  37. stan speaker

    My absolute award for most consistent unflagging rolled 24 carot gold support for a party goes to…….BOB MEGUIRE top marks. I will piss myself (and be v v happy) if you are right

  38. meher baba

    Fran@31. I can’t believe it! I think I actually agree with you. Labor does need to orientate itself a little leftwards (soft Tanya Plibersek left, not old style union-lovin’ Gillard-Kim Il Carr-Albo-Dougie sort of left).

    Except on asylum seekers: electoral poison with the swinging voters, I’m afraid.

  39. lizzie

    meher baba

    I find your analysis entirely believable. There have been hints of a modern left party in Labor over the years, but the “machine men” as you call them, have ruled. Rudd seemed to give a fresh perspective for a while.

  40. Fran Barlow

    River:

    [If Rudd hadn’t been removed in 2010, nothing would be done. Gillard was the one who introduced the NDIS, the NBN, Gonski and whatever else Labor did. Rudd was resposible for fuelwatch, grocery watch, and a laptop for every child. ]

    As someone who worked closely with our TSOs (two of them) over the life of the program (to be abandoned this year) I found it overall to be a good one. It wasn’t, FTR “a laptop for every child” — only 9-12 got them.

    I wasn’t a fan of the program initially, regarding it as sub-optimal expenditure in IT in schools, but today I regard it as a net positive in practice. The TSO role that came with it was a clear win for tech support in schools, but would not have come without the laptops.

    I have some environmental concerns attached to all that techno-junk being created — li-ion batteries are not easy to recycle AIUI, but on the whole, I give the program a B+.

  41. Erasmus

    Despite all the dire polls, the one from the Guardian based on polling mobiles seems much more optimistic and Jason Li is doing well in Bennelong. Don’t expect to win but may not lose as badly as predicted.

  42. castle

    [Bobalot,

    Spot on, late last year Julia was level pegging with the Coalition until Rudd started again. Totally destructive influence on the party for past three years!]

    Agree Kirky

    The main negativity in Julia’s polling was that caused by rudd and peoples fear that he could replace her as shown out now in the polling for rudd.

    if rudd was subject to the same undermining he did to julia polling would be far worse.

    87 seats to lnp, labor to learn from rudd, never place too much hope or give too much power in one person.

    i think Juulia will be getting many phone calls from labor mps and ex-mps apologising for being so wrong and not purging the party of the rudd cancer earlier

  43. Fran Barlow

    Bobalot

    [I’m not sure what fantasyland you live in. Most people (like as in 80%) are totally against a more generous asylum seeker policy.]

    No poll I’ve ever seen supports that claim. Also, when you control for people who might vote ALP (excluding the rusted on Libs) you’d get an even more pro-asylum-seeker compassion position.

    Equally, absent pictures of boats and gaols, there would be nothing to keep the threat active in people’s minds. The whole issue is just one large right-wing populist troll.

  44. Fran Barlow

    And FTR Meher, I’ve met and chatted with Albo one-to-one — and he’s no hard leftist.

  45. lizzie

    castle

    I didn’t realise, until I read it in a small accessible part of the Oz, that Hawker is being paid by Rudd as a personal strategist. Whether true or not, it seems plausible.

    It supports the message Rudd gave, in his Kitchen Cabinet Afternoon Tea, that he gets his support and confidence from his family, which is why he bounces back after defeats. They appear to live in their own world.

  46. Erasmus

    Out on the hustings, the asylum seeker issue is one where I found some lifelong Labor supporters telling me they couldn’t vote for labor this time because of the harshness of the latest policy.

  47. Roxanna

    [11
    shellbell
    Posted Saturday, September 7, 2013 at 6:05 am | PERMALINK
    I will get in early and congratulate you on you work over the several last weeks, William.]

    Yes, thanks William for another terrific election coverage. Pity it hasn’t been the same as 2007 of blessed memory, but it’s still the best election site.

    And I’d also like to thank Fran Barlow whose comments are always interesting, courteous and literate.

  48. Fran Barlow

    Erasmus

    [Out on the hustings, the asylum seeker issue is one where I found some lifelong Labor supporters telling me they couldn’t vote for labor this time because of the harshness of the latest policy.]

    I’ve found the same, and also found that even ALP spruikers were privately embarrassed by it. Where I teach, the ALP-leaning school community is appalled. A dozen are voting informal.

    I’d have held my nose and preferenced the ALP if their asylum seeker policy had not included mandatory detention and rendition.

  49. Jackol

    Re: Meher Baba’s analysis of ‘where to’ for the ALP

    Yes, this accords mostly with what I have been thinking (and I’ve written a few comments along these lines).

    I actually have become more pessimistic – I am struggling to believe that the ALP can find the way out of its mess – but then I’m a pessimistic kind of guy.

    If the ALP can’t change its spots now, the only hope for non-lunar-right political Australia is for a new centreish/leftish party to arise, and that will take a decade to get established if anyone can get around to doing the hard yards to getting it going – and there’s precious little sign of anyone putting up their hand.

    MT was mentioned as a wasted opportunity for such a party – I’m not 100% convinced that was ever possible, but there seems a bit of a wasteland of any other chances out there.

    Fran suggested:

    take reform of party processes attending member recruitment, internal governance and integrity, policy development and candidate selection seriously.

    Yes, this all seems sensible, obvious … and unlikely to be taken seriously.

    Of these I’d have to say candidate selection is absolutely the biggest issue. Of course having an engaged and growing membership helps a lot with this, but … if the ALP don’t push out all of their dead wood time-servers and machine men from winnable spots, they will have no hope at all.

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