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Wednesday 5pm. The addition of 817 absent votes have favoured Labor by 450-367, whittling the Liberal lead back to 624.

Sunday 6pm. Some missing booth and pre-poll voting centre results have broken handily for Liberal candidate Karen McNamara, favouring her 2701 to 2243 over Labor’s Emma McBride, increasing her lead to a surely decisive 968.

Election night. As with neighbouring Robertson in 2010, Labor has done better in Dobell in the wake of local member scandals than most expected, though in this case not by quite enough. The ABC projects a 5.7% swing off a 5.4% margin, although the margin on the raw two-party preferred count is lower at 35029 (50.4%) to 34519 (49.6%).

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Oakeshott Country

McBride has made up 160 on latest postings but still behind by 700

Kevin Bonham

To win this Labor would have to get a slightly larger post-count swing than their best single seat result in the whole 2010 election. Extremely unlikely.


For some reason I quite like the naming glitch here, although it’s a shame it wasn’t 1984.