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Federal Election 2013

Sep 13, 2013

Call of the board: part two

A quick run-through election results of interests from seats in the AFL states plus the Australian Capital Territory (the rest having been dealt with yesterday).

The other half of my review of electorate results of interest, with numbers and swings cited for the sake of consistency on the basis of “ordinary” polling booth votes.

Victoria

		%	Swing	Projection
Coalition	42.6	+3.1	42.7	
Labor		35.3	-8.2	34.6		
Greens		10.5	-1.7	10.9
Palmer United	3.7
Others		7.9

Two-party preferred

Coalition	49.7	+5.4	50.1
Labor		50.3	-5.4	49.9

Bendigo. A 7.9% swing following the retirement of sitting member Steve Gibbons returned Bendigo to a marginal zone from which it had emerged with successive strong swings to Labor in 2007 and 2010.

Bruce. Alan Griffin’s eastern Melbourne seat is now marginal after a swing to the Liberals of 6.2% cut deep into his existing 7.7% margin.

Corangamite. Darren Cheeseman’s two-term hold on Corangamite was ended by a swing well in line with the statewide average, hitting him 8.0% on the primary vote and 4.4% on two-party preferred.

Gellibrand. It appears Nicola Roxon was well liked by her constituents, as the Labor primary vote in Gellibrand fell 12.6% upon her retirement, the second highest drop in the primary vote for Labor in Victoria. That translated into an ultimately harmless 7.6% swing on two-party preferred.

Indi. Support for Cathy McGowan has been slightly stronger in Wangaratta and Wodonga, which both broke about 54-46 her way, than in the rural centres, which were collectively at about 50-50.

Jagajaga. Jenny Macklin copped Labor’s second highest two-party swing in Melbourne, reducing her 11.1% margin by 8.3%.

La Trobe. Jason Wood returns to parliament after easily accounting for Labor member Laura Smyth’s 1.7% margin with a 5.8% swing, which was well in line with the Melbourne average.

Lalor. The loss of Julia Gillard was keenly felt in Lalor, an 18.6% drop in the primary vote being Labor’s worst in Victoria. Much of it spread across a crowded field of minor contenders, whose preferences limited the two-party swing to 10.0%.

Mallee. The Nationals comfortably retained a seat they might have feared losing to the Liberals with the retirement of veteran member John Forrest. Their candidate Andrew Broad had 39.5% of the ordinary vote to 27.0% for Liberal candidate Chris Crewther, and on present counting holds a lead of 9.9% after preferences. The only ordinary polling booths won by Crewther were the six in Mildura and the two in Stawell.

McEwen. The swing that is imperilling Rob Mitchell was notably fuelled by swings of around 12% in the Sunbury and Craigieburn booths, which were newly added to the electorate. Swings elsewhere were substantial, but generally well below the 9.2% margin.

McMillan. Russell Broadbent picked up an 8.0% swing, part of what looks an ongoing trend away from Labor in West Gippsland and the Latrobe Valley.

Melbourne. The Liberal preference switch bit deep into the Greens’ two-party preferred vote, with Adam Bandt’s overall preference share shriking from 77.2% in 2010 to 40.4%. Had that applied on the 2010 numbers, Bandt would have fallen 3.4% short. On that basis, the current 4.9% margin after preferences can be seen as an 8.3% swing, although Bandt’s margin has in fact been reduced by 1.0%. Bandt picked up 7.2% on the primary vote amid a crowded field, for which Labor made way by dropping 10.9%.

Western Australia

		%	Swing	Projection
Coalition	51.1	0.4	51.0
Labor		29.1	-2.5	28.7		
Greens		9.6	-3.2	10.0
Palmer United	5.4
Others		4.8

Two-party preferred

Coalition	57.1	+0.9	57.3
Labor		42.9	-0.9	42.7

Brand. Gary Gray held firm amid a status quo result for Labor in WA, his margin of 3.3% more than enough buffer for a 1.1% swing. Both Labor and Liberal were down fractionally on the primary vote, the big movers being the Greens, down more than half to 7.1%, and the Palmer United Party on 7.4%.

Canning. Canning was one of only two mainland seats to record a double-digit two-party swings against Labor, the other being Lalor. This is clearly a correction after Alannah MacTiernan outperformed the state result by 5% when she ran in 2010. This time the Labor vote was down 14.8%, with Liberal member Don Randall up 6.4%.

Durack. It was a disappointing election for the WA Nationals, who among other things were unable to snare the northern regional seat of Durack which had been vacated by retiring Liberal member Barry Haase. The party’s candidate Shane van Styn was outpolled by Liberal candidate Melissa Price 37.8% to 23.6% on the primary vote, and has on current indications fallen 4.2% short after receiving 57.4% of preferences. In this he was inhibited by Labor’s decision to put the Nationals last, which the experience of O’Connor suggests cut the overall Nationals preference share by about 10%. That being so, the Labor preference decision would have exactly accounted for the final margin.

Hasluck. Amid what was only a slight statewide swing off a high base, Liberal sophomore Ken Wyatt landed a handy 4.3% buffer to what had been a precarious 0.6% margin.

O’Connor. Tony Crook’s retirement combined with Labor’s preference decision ended the toehold the WA Nationals gained in the House of Representatives, the election of Crook having ended a drought going back to 1974. The primary votes were not greatly changed on 2010, when Crook was outpolled by Wilson Tuckey 38.4% to 28.8% on the primary vote before emerging 3.6% ahead after preferences. The biggest changes were that the Nationals were down 3.3% to 25.6% and the Palmer United Party scored 4.4%. The decisive factor was a drop in the Nationals’ share of preferences from 75.3% to 66.0%, landing Nationals candidate Chub Witham 1.0% short of Liberal candidate Rick Wilson.

South Australia

		%	Swing	Projection
Coalition	44.8	+4.8	45.1
Labor		36.2	-5.1	35.6		
Greens		8.0	-3.8	8.2
Palmer United	3.8
Others		7.2

Two-party preferred

Coalition	52.2	+5.7	52.6
Labor		47.8	-5.7	47.4

Boothby. The run of five successive swings against Andrew Southcott at elections going back to 1996 came to an emphatic end as Labor directed its resources elsewhere. Southcott was up 5.9% on the primary vote and 7.3% on two-party preferred.

Hindmarsh. The South Australian swing hit Labor hardest where they needed it least, an 8.2% swing handily accounting for Steve Georganas’s 6.1% margin in the most marginal of their six seats. Labor’s fortunes in Hindmarsh have changed since Georganas won it for them at the 2004 election, at which time Kingston, Makin and Wakefield were Liberal seats on respective margins of 0.1%, 0.9% and 0.7%. Those seats have stayed with Labor since falling to them in 2007, currently being held by respective margins of 9.7%, 5.4% and 3.1%.

Wakefield. After talk that Nick Champion might be troubled as a result of job cuts at Holden’s Elizabeth plant, he retained a 3.1% margin in the face of a 7.1% swing, which was slightly higher than the statewide result of 5.8%.

Tasmania

		%	Swing	Projection
Coalition	40.2	+6.9	40.5
Labor		35.1	-9.3	34.7		
Greens		8.1	-8.5	8.3
Palmer United	6.2
Others		10.4

Two-party preferred

Coalition	51.6	+9.4	51.2
Labor		48.4	-9.4	48.8

Bass and Braddon moved very closely in tandem, with two-party swings of 10.9% and 10.3% that were both driven by Labor primary vote collapses at around the double-digit mark, and increases in the Liberal vote of around 8%. Lyons fell with a bigger swing off a lower base, the margin of 12.3% accounted for by a 14.0% swing with primary votes shifts well into double digits for both parties. However, it was a different story in the south of the state, with Julie Collins holding on to a 4.9% margin in Franklin after a relatively benign 5.9% swing. In Denison, Andrew Wilkie’s vote was up from 21.3% to 38.3%, with Labor (down 10.8% to 24.5%) and the Greens (down 11.3% to 7.7%) making way. The Liberals held steady, but nonetheless remained slightly below Labor and sure to remain in third place after distribution of Greens preferences.

Australian Capital Territory

		%	Swing	Projection
Coalition	34.5	-0.1	34.7
Labor		43.4	-2.1	42.9		
Greens		13.0	-5.8	13.4
Palmer United	2.8
Others		6.3

Two-party preferred

Coalition	40.0	+1.9	40.2
Labor		60.0	-1.9	59.8

With only a subdued swing against Labor, the outstanding feature of the result appears to be a slump in the Greens vote, down 6.0% in Canberra and 5.8% in Fraser. However, this can largely be put down to greater competition for the minor party vote. The 2010 election saw only three candidates nominate in Canberra and four in Fraser (the Secular Party together with the usual three), but this time there were six and eight seats respectively. A clearer picture is presented by the Senate, where the Greens vote was down 4.1% to 18.8% despite the high-profile candidacy of Simon Sheikh, while Labor fell 6.0% to 34.8%. Both major parties were just clear of a quota.

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2051 comments

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democracy@work
Guest

WA Senate

Above the time and Below the Line have been proportioned out.

All indications are that Sports Party will not survive the count at two crucial junctions

TCS 603:506 (ABTL:BTL) – 193 Margin vs 506 BTL votes that might not be transferred to SPRTS

RUA 1542:1499 (ATL:BTL) – 199 Notional Margin vs 1399 BTL votes that might not be transferred to SPRTS

The ALP has slipped back to 26.75% giving Greens advantage

BUT i s is now Essential for all parties to secure a copy of the BTL preference data file to facilitate the proper open scrutiny of the ballot

geoffrey
Guest

Puff, the Magic Dragon.
Posted Sunday, September 15, 2013 at 12:28 am | PERMALINK
I bring to your attention that tonight 14 September, , but for the actions of the Great Termite, his foot-soldiers and the acolytes who gave him aid and comfort,, we would have been celebrating an ALP victory, and the second term of Prime Minister Gillard.

Thanks, Kevin.
—————hmmm. what evidence for that?

geoffrey
Guest

but they can stop wage increases to aged care workers – next to the age one of the most vulnerable groups. time for some national strikes

geoffrey
Guest

paaptsef
Posted Sunday, September 15, 2013 at 12:40 am | PERMALINK
Abbott wins an election and then is to scared to say anything because the Libs are too incompetent to know if their policies are actually their policies or not
——–

something like that. too scared of media (they are naked now). too scared of speaking (requires use of sentences). too scared of policy (requires reading) … where is rupert when you need him?

geoffrey
Guest

In a thinly veiled swipe at Mr Rudd, Ms Gillard asked the party to consider what should befall politicians who ”dedicate themselves to destabilising others and bringing the party in to disrepute”.

============ this is so funny from julia. nothing about 2010. no regret, mea culpa. and this is to be admired? i think it is much too soon to hear from yet another retired labor statesperson. a long anthropological trip to s america might produce more wisdom than this prejudice.

Outsider
Guest

From the Indi thread courtesy of the esteemed Kevin Bonham:
Kevin Bonham
“I’m getting an average gap of 240 on the latest figures on the assumption that practically all remaining EVPPs and one quarter of remaining postals arrive. Mirabella has some chance still, maybe five percent or so (assumptions on probability calculations can be argued various ways). The last 500 absents had almost no effect on my projection.”

I did my own little analysis this morning, based on what we know already from late counting of prepolls, absents and postals. The number I came up with is a final win to McGowan by 256. Perilously close. I think I will stick with Kevin’s calculation that Mirabella still has a 5% probability of winning from here. He’s much better at this stuff than I am! The critical variable relates to the return rate of outstanding postals – there are about 1100 that have not yet been returned. My calculation assumes 100 of these will still come in.

Fingers crossed that good will prevail.

frednk
Guest
Kevin Bonham
Guest

Psephos@2038

KB, you have any comments on the state of the Senate races in other states, particularly WA?

Just some general comments – these things are shifting sands in post-counting because certain parties perform better or worse on the day than in pre-polling. Things like the Sports Party seat in WA (which is extremely close by the calculator) are actually very premature to be calling and writing articles about. It might happen, it might not. Seemingly tiny changes knock them off course and elect somebody else. Modelling off current figures can be irrelevant by the end of the post-count.

I haven’t looked at any of the others in enough detail to make any informed comment – where enough detail equals a hell of a lot.

imacca
Guest

[Hockey to raise debt ceiling]

To be fair i think everyone assumes he will. But, he has been MIA since the election so who knows?? Maybe he thinks that Mesma is actually after his job?? 🙂

lefty e
Guest

[Hockey to raise debt ceiling]

As I was saying…. FAIL

lefty e
Guest

[lefty – after our recent election dealings I hesitate to humiliate you again (btw Labor won’t even make 55 seats, let alone 61, and 2PP is heading towards 46.5% to ALP if they’re lucky, nearly 1pc point below you 47.3%) but I predict as oer yr points above: 1)carbon TAX & ETS will go, 2)Boats in international waters will be turned back 3)Direct Action … in reality who cares anymore, pseudo saving the planet via Oz is so yesterday 4)NBN is a disaster and a problem for Oz not just for Libs and I really don’t know how the new government is gonna sort out the nearly $100bn mess left by the incompetent Rudd-Gillard-Greens Rudd hopeless Labor-Greens govt. Eventually we’ll have to take the write-down of the “Asset” to budget bottom line – thanks Labor-Greens!]

Again? when was the first time Mick?

1) Yes, maybe 2) No, the australian navy would be breaching naval law by interfereing with any boat in international waters, which wont happen, so youre totally wrong here, and you will later admit this 3) glad you agree with me 4) it seems a lot of your own party’s supporters dont fancy the policy.

B.C.
Guest

RIP Ronald Coase: Man who lifted lid on hidden costs of buying. Unarguable one of the greatest economists of the 20th century (although Tony Abbott and Greg Hunt seem to be rejecting his work).

Psephos
Guest

KB, you have any comments on the state of the Senate races in other states, particularly WA?

Kevin Bonham
Guest

http://kevinbonham.blogspot.com.au/2013/09/modelling-tasmanian-state-election-off.html

This article takes a look at some claims that the result of the Tasmanian federal seats, if repeated federally, would produce a hung parliament with PUP holding the balance of power. It finds these claims wanting on many different levels. The federal election does suggest Tasmanian ReachTEL polling has been Liberal-skewed by about four points, but the federal election and matching state/federal polling points to the Liberals winning.

Also for those who somehow missed all my spam for them:

Tas Senate counting –

http://kevinbonham.blogspot.com.au/2013/09/2013-federal-election-post-counting.html

(A complete mess with a close race between the Liberals and PUP for the final seat, with the Sex Party and Family First also not completely out of it.)

http://kevinbonham.blogspot.com.au/2013/09/2013-federal-election-late-counting.html

(My house of reps late counting thread.)

I have not been active in the open threads here because I am so busy with projections, however I am posting many comments on the seat threads.

paaptsef
Guest

how hilarious would it be if the Libs are already making excuses about being a do nothing government

DisplayName
Guest

Oh well, enough dreaming while awake ;).

DisplayName
Guest

We’d have a completely open and published model available at all times, along with proposed changes.

imacca
Guest

[ prior to 1 July 2014?]

They are not Senators prior to July 2014.

However, once they are confirmed as Senators elect i cant think of anything improper about Peta having them round for drinks and a chat. 🙁

DisplayName
Guest

At which point we’d probably also have to change how things get done. I suggest splitting our current single vote for representatives into two votes, one for changes to the system and one for people who’ll manage it. So we could vote for Labor policy and force those Liberals to manage it or vice versa, haha.

Good fun!

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