Today’s Mercury brings us what looks like the third in a series of bi-monthly ReachTEL automated phone polls of state voting intention for the Tasmanian election to be held in March, from big samples of roughly 550 for each of the state’s five electorates. Excluding the 6.6% undecided from an overall sample of 2723, the results pan out at 25% for Labor, 53% for the Liberals and 16% for the Greens. The poll finds Liberal leader Will Hodgman with a similarly enormous lead over Lara Giddings as preferred premier of 59.2% to 25.5%, with 15.3% favouring Greens leader Nick McKim.

The new results have inspired me to make my second attempt at a bias-adjusted poll trend for the current term using the 13 available results from ERMS and the four from ReachTEL. The bias calculations are based on comparison of ReachTEL’s federal polling for Tasmania in the months prior to the state election with the BludgerTrack poll aggregates adjusted to account for the discrepancy for the final BludgerTrack reading and the actual election result. Measures for EMRS are in turn derived by comparing their poll results with proximate bias-adjusted results for ReachTEL. This procedure suggests that the Liberals and the Greens are heavily inflated by both pollsters, mostly at the expense of “others”. However, I can’t state with too much confidence that this isn’t down to the one-off circumstance of the polls underestimating the others vote at the federal election, to which a late surge to the Palmer United Palmer may have contributed. So with due caution advised, the trend looks as follows, with the “current” result being 48.0% Liberal, 28.3% Labor and 9.6% Greens.

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