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Federal Election 2016

Nov 4, 2013

Seat of the week: Bowman

Covering Brisbane's coastal outer south, Andrew Laming's seat of Bowman came within 64 votes of falling to Labor under Kevin Rudd in 2007, before going dramatically the other way as part of the statewide backlash three years later.

Bowman covers Brisbane’s coastal outer south from Thorneside through Capalaba and Sheldon to Redland Bay, and extends across the southern part of Moreton Bay to North Stradbroke Island. It has existed in name since 1949, but did not include any of its current territory until 1969, instead being based in Brisbane’s inner south-east. The 1969 redistribution caused the redrawn electorate to extend from the mouths of the Brisbane River in the north to the Logan River in the south, the latter also marking the Bowman’s southern extremity today. The area now covered by Bowman began to acquire its suburban character at around this time. With the redistribution of 1977, the southern part of the electorate came to be accommodated by the newly created electorate of Fadden. Bowman’s present dimensions were established when its northern neighbour Bonner was created to accommodate the Wynnum-Manly area at the 2004 election, setting Thorneside as the northern extremity of Bowman.

Bowman in its various permutations has been a marginal seat for most of its history, having been held by the Liberals throughout the Menzies and Holt years outside of a win by Labor as part of its near-victory at the 1961 election. It next changed hands with the big swing to Labor under Gough Whitlam’s leadership in 1969, and would henceforth go with the government of the day until 1998. Leonard Keogh held the seat for Labor from 1969 to 1975 and again after 1983, and also contested unsuccessfully in 1977 and 1980. Keogh was defeated for preselection in 1987 by Con Sciacca, who lost the seat to Liberal candidate Andrea West in 1996 before winning it back again in 1998. The Liberal member during the Fraser years was David Jull, who re-emerged as member for Fadden in 1984.

The reorganisation caused by the creation of Bonner in 2004 boosted the Liberal margin in Bowman by 4.4%, prompting Sciacca to unsuccessfully try his hand in Bonner. Bowman meanwhile was won by Liberal candidate Andrew Laming, an ophthalmologist and World Bank health consultant who added a solid 5.9% to the notional Liberal margin of 3.0%. Laming spent much of 2007 under the shadow of the “printgate” affair, in which he was investigated for allegedly claiming $67,000 to print campaign material for state election candidates, before being cleared two months before the election. After rumblings that the affair might cost him his preselection, Laming survived an 8.9% swing to Labor at the 2007 election to hold on by 64 votes. He had a much easier time of it in 2010, his 10.4% swing being strong even by the standards of Queensland at that election. There was a correction in Labor’s favour of 1.5% at the 2013 election, going slightly against the trend of a 1.3% statewide swing to the Liberal National Party.

Laming was promoted to the position of shadow parliamentary secretary for regional health services and indigenous health after the 2010 election, but was dropped after the Abbott government came to power.

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1053 comments

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BK
Guest
BK
Guest

Section 2 . . .

I don’t think Wacka will run away from this one.
http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/nationals-senator-john-williams-ramps-up-warnings-over-graincorp-sale-20131105-2wyer.html
MUST SEE!! Alan Moir has clearly had enough of the Great Wall of Credlin.
http://www.smh.com.au/photogallery/federal-politics/cartoons/alan-moir-20090907-fdxk.html
David Rowe with some rather disturbing Melbourne Cup imagery.
http://www.afr.com/p/national/cartoon_gallery_david_rowe_1g8WHy9urgOIQrWQ0IrkdO
David Pope is less than impressed with the amateurish FA efforts of Abbott and Mesma.
http://www.smh.com.au/photogallery/federal-politics/cartoons/david-pope-20120214-1t3j0.html

BK
Guest

Good morning Dawn Patrollers.

Very convincing Barnaby, very convincing.
http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/barnaby-joyce-says-rugby-league-expenses-were-official-business-20131105-2wzqs.html
Labor should play this for all it’s worth. Disgusting!
http://www.smh.com.au/business/murdoch-wants-his-pound-of-flesh-20131105-2wzhs.html
Not to be rude, but John, do us all a favour and piss off!
http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/the-claims-are-exaggerated-john-howard-rejects-predictions-of-global-warming-catastrophe-20131106-2wzza.html
Would there be any political (or other) favours buried in this?
http://www.smh.com.au/nsw/new-barangaroo-proposal-shuffles-public-space-to-make-way-for-james-packers-casino-20131105-2wzqx.html
This may be an entertaining journey.
http://www.smh.com.au/national/david-hicks-lodges-us-military-court-bid-to-overturn-terrorism-charge-20131105-2wzqv.html
There’s so much to like about this outstanding family.
http://www.smh.com.au/nsw/obeids-750000-legal-bill-family-reneges-on-guarantee-it-gave-law-firm-20131105-2wzjr.html
The facts will speak for themselves.
http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/cutting-greenhouse-gas-emissions-senate-plan-to-test-tony-abbotts-claims-20131105-2wzim.html
The OECD has already examined them.
http://www.smh.com.au/business/oecd-takes-aim-at-direct-action-plan-20131105-2wzgv.html
You’d better tread carefully, Tone!
http://www.theguardian.com/world/2013/nov/05/opinion-poll-abbott-audit

Helen Sykes
Guest

If you’re no fan of Rupert, follow William’s link at 1013.
Many thanks, William. I loved especially the bit about making the story up so that you can be quite sure of the facts.

imacca
Guest

[in this case, he’s done nothing wrong except say things others disagree with.]

Meh. I find his mindlessly sycophantic cheerleader style repulsive.

Roger Miller
Guest

1042 would be funny if it wasn’t so sad.

Rational Leftist
Guest

Sean’s post in 1042 is him expressing an opinion. 99% of the shit he posts is annoying but, in this case, he’s done nothing wrong except say things others disagree with.

deblonay
Guest

“Murdoch wants his pound of flesh ” says SMH
Abbott now under pressure

who’ suprised ?????
Murdoch has always been and will remain the Complete Bastard
and Great Monster of the World…a bigger media dictator than anyone since Dr Goebells

http://www.smh.com.au/business/murdoch-wants-his-pound-of-flesh-20131105-2wzhs.html

imacca
Guest

Sean Tisme will always be a idiot. He is already posting bollocks and Abbott hasn’t actually done anything yet.

Except rip off bushfire victims compo, grovel overseas, ofend the Russians, appoint (LoL!) Bishop the Younger as FM,…….

zoidlord
Guest

@Sean/1042

Not sure what you call getting things done without Parliament.

Sean Tisme
Guest

Tony Abbott will be a brilliant PM, he is already getting things done and parliament hasn’t even sat yet.

Tom the first and best
Guest
Tom the first and best

1040

Your point still remains a flippant dismissal of an article of with some actual point. Control of the New Jersey state legislature is not irrelevant.

Rational Leftist
Guest

Nevertheless my point still remains

Tom the first and best
Guest
Tom the first and best

1038

Glad to be of service.

Rational Leftist
Guest

Gosh! Thanks Tom for letting us all know what my post was really about!

Tom the first and best
Guest
Tom the first and best

1036

1034 was clearly a dismissive response to 1033.

Rational Leftist
Guest

[The article linked to in 1033 is not about the governorship, it is about control of the state legislature.]

My post was about the governorships of NJ and VA, as well as the Mayorship of NYC.

Tom the first and best
Guest
Tom the first and best

1034

The article linked to in 1033 is not about the governorship, it is about control of the state legislature.

Rational Leftist
Guest
I wouldn’t waste my time with NJ. Christie will win that. VA is more interesting though, with the Democratic candidate likely to win. The main difference between the two (besides the fact that Christie’s an incumbent): Christie isn’t a far right tea party candidate and doesn’t see Democrats as the enemy he has to fight against to the bitter end, whereas the Republican candidate in Virginia is. Had they gone with a more sensible candidate in Virginia (which is one of the most middle ground states there is, although starting to trend more and more Democratic, due to the rural… Read more »
guytaur
Guest
Rational Leftist
Guest

One of the most annoying things about SA Labor though is the cardinal belief that the only thing that matters to voters above Grand Junction Road is the automotive industry. That is definitely an institutional failing of the ALP and could leave them weak in the future. However, as long as they keep getting wins in places like Wakefield and Light, it’s not going to bother them too much.

Rational Leftist
Guest
[Fair enough, then we are agreed. I have to deal with some of the bureaucrats who “champion” those policies. It is like a conversation with Sir Humphrey. They are world champions at justifying their own existence, which they have been doing since the days of the multi-function polis.] Yeah, I agree with that too. I do happen to know a few people who (and they would thoroughly deny this publicly) actually want to see Holden’s plant shut down, so the security blanket is gone and there is an update of political economic attitude. Problem is most of them are political… Read more »
Socrates
Guest

Carey

Fair enough, then we are agreed. I have to deal with some of the bureaucrats who “champion” those policies. It is like a conversation with Sir Humphrey. They are world champions at justifying their own existence, which they have been doing since the days of the multi-function polis.

Socrates
Guest

Night all.

Rational Leftist
Guest
[So are you actually saying it is OK to low around $500 million per year to keep this joke alive?] No, I was just explaining why it’s happening. I don’t agree with it at all. [Also If you know Adelaide, and your claims about understanding inside government are true, then can you explain why they are still subdividing land near Elizabeth?] Outdated institutional economic policies that have haunted the state since at least the Bannon era. I don’t pretend to know every single government policy, nor understand why it’s in place. [Kim Carr’s name should also not be forgotten among… Read more »
guytaur
Guest

Carey

Holden has told the government that review period is too long for Detroit HQ’s timeline.

Socrates
Guest

Carey

So are you actually saying it is OK to low around $500 million per year to keep this joke alive?

Also If you know Adelaide, and your claims about understanding inside government are true, then can you explain why they are still subdividing land near Elizabeth? We are just creating a bigger slum, at public expense. Meanwhile there are other projects all round the city we are told that we do not have enough funds to complete.

Kim Carr’s name should also not be forgotten among the group of liars/idiots who have perpetuated this mess.

Rational Leftist
Guest

[You are correct about the car industry. Not only that, it will probably happen before the probable WA Senate election if and the psychological impact on voters of that could be big.]

I think there’s at least a year left. I sincerely doubt the Elizabeth plant will close before the SA state election (or the WA Senate election for that matter), especially considering the Federal Government has declared it won’t announce its policy on the issue until the end of March (after the SA state election, for obvious political reasons).

guytaur
Guest
Socrates
Guest
Carey We are agreed on the reality, yet the fact is the SA and Fed governments still plough millions into it. Before Mitsubishi shut the subsidy per worker actually exceeded their average income. We would have been better off just giving them the money. But in fact I am not sure about your claim that everyone in SA government does understand. Do they? They continue writing silly policies saying that manufacturing jobs will increase. WTF?? Meanwhile spending in other areas has ben cut, and SA has been in sharp recession for at least nine months. Many suffer to keep this… Read more »
guytaur
Guest

Carey

You are correct about the car industry. Not only that, it will probably happen before the probable WA Senate election if and the psychological impact on voters of that could be big.

Rational Leftist
Guest
Socrates, the protectionism around Holden is nothing more than politics. It sells votes in the suburbs. Of course it makes very little difference to the employment figures. However, it has become a part of the mindset that it’s the company that’s keeping Adelaide employed. Everybody on the inside of government knows that’s not true, which is why alternative economic investment has occurred in the last decade or two. It’s just it’s too good an opportunity to pass off to make the other side look like a job killer by letting the company go under. The good news for Labor is… Read more »
poroti
Guest

William Bowe

😆 had not seen that before.

victoria
Guest

comfessions

I have returned home. The break was excellent. Thanks.

As often said, we have been poorly served.

Socrates
Guest
I know some people think the end justifies thie means, but this nonsense report on the auto industry annoys me. [New research suggests the cost to the South Australian economy of Holden’s potential closure would be $1.24 billion and 13,200 jobs – more than double estimates released yesterday by the Federal Chamber of Automotive Industries.] http://www.abc.net.au/news/2013-11-05/holden-closure-cost-south-australia/5071704 Sure some jobs will be lost if we stop propping up the car industry (though not many, and it may go even with the assistance). But thhe real question is how many other jobs might be created with the same cash doing something else.… Read more »
Just Me
Guest

[349
badseed

‘Blu-Ray’ will tend to look ‘better’ than broadcast HDTV as it’s usually encoded at both a higher-res (1080p vs 1080i or 720p) and at a higher-bitrate (less artifacts in the image due to compression).

In my experience it’s the low bitrate and thus high number of compression artifacts that determines whether something is of good viewing quality – the resolution is very much of secondary importance, and only when you’re at a suitable viewing distance.]

Hi-res, low bit-rate video encodes…

Aaaaaaaaaaaarrrrrrrggggghhh!!!

The blocking, the blocking,…

davidwh
Guest

Swamprat IPhone auto-correct and just can’t be bothered over-riding the US spelling all the time. In any case I will take-a-fence.

confessions
Guest

victoria:

Hope the break away is going well.

We knew about Rupe’s ‘pound of flesh’ before the election – it was obvious to anyone who cared to look. But like other ‘revelations’ which have suddenly occurred to the press gallery since the election, there was nothing about this in OM in the years before the federal election, yet here it is presented as a bona fide news item now.

Honestly!

Just Me
Guest

[390
AussieAchmed

Gutless Abbott Govt.

What are they hiding? Their incompetence?

comment image:large ]

Their real intentions.

Rational Leftist
Guest

Just FYI, I was quoting Victoria, who was quoting a news article.

poroti
Guest

Carey Moore

[The Sun King – as he has been crowned]

Before that the poms called him a more appropriate name. “The Dirty Digger”. All those page three tits out pics in Rupes paper an all that.

Socrates
Guest

Regarding Hewson, it wasn’t only on climate that he was reasonable. The GST he proposed was needed. Plus he was also intending to reform a lot of corporate welfare as well as reducing tax avoidance. No doubt the wealthy would have benefitted from his planned tax cuts, but many rorts would have ben stopped, that continue to this day.

He was a smart and reasonable guy, just a lousy salesman of ideas.

Rational Leftist
Guest

[The Sun King – as he has been crowned – is said to have been talking to the freshly minted Canberra legislators about the possibility of acquiring the Ten Network.]

Well, Paul Bongiorno probably should start updating his resume…

victoria
Guest

[Having been the largest single contributor to the election of Tony Abbott’s Coalition government, Rupert Murdoch is looking for his reward, according to word around the industry. The Sun King – as he has been crowned – is said to have been talking to the freshly minted Canberra legislators about the possibility of acquiring the Ten Network.]

Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/business/murdoch-wants-his-pound-of-flesh-20131105-2wzhs.html#ixzz2jll4Q987

Rational Leftist
Guest

Of all the Federal Liberal leaders I recall, Hewson is the one I can most imagine voting for (I was too young in 1993.)

Speaking of also-rans, Beazley, IMO, is the best PM we never had.

confessions
Guest

[Annoying? You betcha]

I’ve been trying for days to turn that off. Guytaur insisted it was simple to do through settings, but I’ve not been able to work it out.

Glad it isn’t just me.

Fran Barlow
Guest

Swamprat

[At the time I opposed Hewson, but I never knew how extreme the “conservatives” would, in future, become.]

The current crowd make Hewson look like a pillar of reason and insight. Certainly, on climate matters, he does.

sprocket_
Guest

sometimes even the smallest things can sink a popular computer application. Twitter may be teetering?

Twitter users would have noticed that certain pictures attached to tweets now show up in your timeline, and there is no way to turn this “auto-preview” feature off

Annoying? You betcha

https://dev.twitter.com/discussions/22490

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