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Victorian Politics

Nov 11, 2013

Newspoll: 53-47 to Labor in Victoria

Newspoll finds Denis Napthine's polling honeymoon coming to abrupt halt, with his personal ratings down sharply and voting intention back in Ted Baillieu territory.

GhostWhoVotes tweets that the September-October Newspoll of state voting intention in Victoria has Labor’s lead widening from 51-49 to 53-47, from primary votes of 39% for the Coalition (down two), 38% for Labor (steady) and 14% for the Greens (up one). An even bigger headline-grabber is that Denis Napthine’s honeymoon personal ratings have ended with a thud: he is down 11 points on approval to 42% and up five on disapproval to 36%, with his lead as preferred premier narrowing from 47-25 to 41-27. Daniel Andrews is down three on approval to 35% and one on disapproval to 31%. Full tables here. Below are two-party and primary vote poll trend charts, based on the same principles as BludgerTrack, from the 13 Newspoll and five ReachTEL results published during the current term:

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42 comments

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triton
Guest

I wasn’t aware that Smith threatened to quit after the last election if he wasn’t made Speaker (reported in The Age today). He was also among the worst offenders of parliamentary behaviour standards prior to that.

Greensborough Growler
Guest
Greensborough Growler

If Smith were to resign from Parliament the Libs would likely win his seat. If Shaw resigned then Labor may win.

triton
Guest

I wonder if Smith has dug in and won’t go. With the current numbers he could threaten not to support Napthine if Napthine won’t support him. Smith hardly comes across as the sort who is willing to passively allow himself to be pushed out of his job by the likes of Geoff Shaw.

triton
Guest

In an unusual move, Jacinta Allan, citing past rulings and the standing orders, directed her first question of QT to the Speaker, who ruled it out of order.

zoomster
Guest

Correction….March.

zoomster
Guest

Apparently Louise Asher is saying on radio that Geoff Shaw has been calling the shots since May this year.

An extraordinary admission by a senior member of the government, and an indication of the lack of resolve on the government benches.

bug1
Guest

Libs are doing important infrastructure development for Victoria, and you know, when important infrastructure development needs to be done some sacrificis need to be made, as (billie@16 mentions).

We have had to sack lots of TAFE teachers stop teaching many courses, underfund our health system, and sure Napthine has crazy plans in his electorate with school kids having to walk half a kilomoter to the bus, BUT… we will have a $8b tunnel that will make the Vaucluse Elitists club red with rage, it will go right under those smelly inner city suburbs of Collingwood and Fitzroy, you wont even have to see their lack of infrastructure and overcrowded development let alone smell them.

The east-west link, a great development for all victorians (who are rich, lazy and elitist)

mexicanbeemer
Guest

Work to Rule

The history of the EWT is an interesting one, it was originally purposed in the Victorian Transport plan released by the Brumby Government.

It is suppose to connect the Eastern, The Tullamarine and the Western Ring Road or something similar.

During the early days of this government the project was put on the back-burner due to cost until after increasing levels of criticism from business that this government was seen as docile, the EWT was dusted off and embraced.

Work To Rule
Guest

I’m sure the Liberal understand that they got into power on the basis of discontent on lack of infrastructure spending – particularly public transport.

If they made at least at half arsed effort they could have cruised the next election. Instead they have gone for the EWL and I really struggle to understand why they have put all their eggs (and all the eggs for the next ten years) into one that one bad urban planning basket.

So is it corruption, ideological blinkers or just outright stupidity?

So multiple choice here

Tom the first and best
Guest
Tom the first and best

32

The Greens are a party of the left, dominated by the educated parts thereof. The right-wing voters of the world tend not to vote for parties of the left, regardless of their level of education.

Hawthorn has voted for the Liberal Party since 1955. That is not very progressive.

mexicanbeemer
Guest

Tom

Its interesting that you write that as the Greens like to portray themselves as the party of the educated.

I image Hawthorn would be considered fairly progressive, transport and planning are always important issues.

Tom the first and best
Guest
Tom the first and best

28

Hawthorn has not been not won by the Liberal Party since 1952 and the Liberals have held Malvern continuously since its creation. Even in the ALP landslides of 1982 & 2002 the Liberals won it. That is not a seat the Greens can actually win because they are a party of the left. A significant proportion of people with a degree are right-wing and they would likely be a much higher proportion of the degree holders in Hawthorn than in Brunswick.

mexicanbeemer
Guest

William,

True the Greens at the federal election did very well across Melbourne, and the southern end of both Wills and Batman.

In time these areas do look like becoming Green areas and once they fall they will be difficult for the ALP to regain them.

The Greens have been aiming at that inner northern group since at least 2002.

mexicanbeemer
Guest

Tom,

My point is that the Greens openly rate their chances in seats like Richmond but don’t appear to rate themselves in a seat like Hawthorn or Malvern.

Hawthorn has one of if not the highest percentage of people with a tertiary degree.

Sam Fish
Guest

Brunswick the best chance to fall to Greens, odds on the others a bit further out for mine. Have a look at the southern Wills booths.

Who knows what will happen in terms of govt though. This is a better govt than the tired one it replaced, but not by much.

Tom the first and best
Guest
Tom the first and best

23 & 24

Had the Liberals not changed their preferencing from defeat the ALP, to defeat the Greens, the Greens would have won them because they got enough of a swing to them on primaries to win if the preferences had not changed.

A seat, is a seat, is a seat. It does not matter who previously held it, as long as it is won, it is worth the same as any other seat.

The Greens target mainly ALP held seats because they are where the largest percentages of voters who either do vote for or might switch to the Greens are. They are providing seats with another choice they might be willing to make. If you do not like challenges for seats, do not live in a democracy.

badseed
Guest

The Greens will indeed be heavily targeting at least one Liberal-held seat – Prahran. They did very well in the Prahran area of Higgins at the Federal election.

mexicanbeemer
Guest

Tom since the early naughts the Greens have been eyeing off Richmond, Brunswick and Melbourne and have not won them.

As Feeney wrote the Greens want to be taken seriously why are they not putting equal attention to Liberal seats.

feeney
Guest

All this talk about the Greens going to win all these Labor seats is all so familiar.

We heard it ad nauseam during the last State election, to no avail.

The Greens can’t be taken seriously until they start winning Liberal instead of Labor seats.

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