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Federal Politics 2013-

Nov 24, 2013

Nielsen: 52-48 to Labor

Nielsen's first poll since the election delivers a rude shock for the Abbott government, showing Labor with an election-winning lead and Bill Shorten travelling 20 points better on net approval than Tony Abbott.

The Abbott government’s mediocre post-election polling record takes a considerable turn for the worse today with the publication of the first Fairfax/Nielsen poll since the election, which is the Coalition’s worst result from Nielsen since the 2010 election campaign, or from any poll at all since the months immediately following. The poll has Labor with a two-party lead of 52-48, from primary votes of 41% for the Coalition, 37% for Labor, 11% for the Greens, 5% for “independents” (an unorthodox inclusion) and 6% for others. Bill Shorten scores remarkably strongly on his debut personal ratings, with approval at 51% and disapproval at 30%, while Tony Abbott manages a tepid 47% approval and 46% disapproval. However, Abbott holds a 49-41 lead as preferred prime minister.

Full tables including state breakdowns are available courtesy of GhostWhoVotes, and they offer at least some ammunition for those of a mind to be skeptical about the result. With due consideration to the fact that an element of wonkiness can be expected from small state-level samples, there are approximate two-party preferred swings to Labor of 2% in New South Wales, 4% in Victoria and 1.5% in South Australia, all of which are easy enough to believe. However, in both Queensland and Western Australia the swings are 11%, the former result coming less than two weeks after an 800-sample poll by Galaxy showed no swing at all. It’s tempting to infer that Nielsen struck Labor-heavy samples in these states, and that had it been otherwise the result would have been more like 50-50.

A more technical observation to be made about the result is that the two-party preferred figures are based on respondent-allocated preferences, whereas Nielsen’s topline numbers are usually based on preference flows from the previous election. This no doubt is because the Australian Electoral Commission still hasn’t published Coalition-versus-Labor two-party results from the 11 seats where other candidates made the final count (I’m told they are likely to do so later this week). However, I have one model for allocating preferences based on the information available from the election, which gets Labor’s two-party vote to 51.7%, and Kevin Bonham has two, which get it to 51.2% and 51.4%.

The Nielsen poll also probed into the hot topics of asylum seekers and abolition of the carbon and mining taxes. Only 42% expressed approval for the government’s handling of asylum seekers versus 50% disapproval – though as Psephos notes in comments, this fails to disentangle those who support their objectives from those who don’t (a ReachTEL poll conducted on Thursday night asked whether the policies were working, and found only 28% thought they were compared with 49% who thought they weren’t). The results on the mining tax were evenly balanced, with 46% saying Labor should support its repeal in parliament versus 47% opposed. The carbon tax at least remains a winner for the government, with 57% saying Labor should vote for its abolition and 38% saying it should oppose it.

In other news, Christian Kerr of The Australian reports on Newspoll analysis of the effect on polling of households without landlines. This was determined through online polling between March and August of nearly 10,000 respondents who were also asked about the state of their household telecommunications. In households without landlines, Coalition support was found to be 1.4% lower, Labor 0.2% lower, the Greens 1.3% higher and “others” 0.2% higher. However, Newspoll’s online polling itself seemed to be skewed to Labor, who came in 4.7% higher than in Newspoll’s landline polling over the same period. This was mostly at the expense of others, which was 4.7% lower, while the Coalition was 0.6% higher and the Greens 1.0% lower. By way of comparison, the online polling of Essential Research over the same period compared with Newspoll’s phone polling as follows: Labor 2.1% higher, the Coalition 3.2% higher, Greens 2.8% lower and others 2.5% lower.

UPDATE: Channel Seven reports that long-awaited ReachTEL result has the Coalition leading 51-49, but unfortunately no further detail is provided. Results earlier released by Seven from the poll include the aforementioned finding that only 28% believe the government’s new policies to stop boat arrivals were working versus 49% who don’t; that 56% say the government should announce boat arrivals when they happenl that 53% think the Prime Minister should deliver the explanation for spying activities demanded by Indonesia, while 34% say he shouldn’t; and that 38% support Australia’s bugging activities with 39% opposed. The poll is an automated phone poll conducted on Thursday evening, presumably from a sample of about 3000.

UPDATE 2: And now Generic Leftist relates on Twitter that Peter Lewis of Essential Research relates on The Drum that tomorrow’s Essential poll will have Labor up a point on the primary vote to 36%, but with two-party preferred steady at 53-47 to the Coalition.

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1048 comments

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Kevin Bonham
Guest

Newspoll are still using 2010 preferences. I get about 51-49 from the same primaries using 2013 preference estimates (by both methods I’m using.)

No-one is replicating Nielsen but there is evidence for narrowing even without it. My aggregate’s at 50.8 now.

mikehilliard
Guest

I suppose I am a product of an advantaged school as it is put here on PB. It doesn’t make me a mental giant (obviously) but also it never changed my position on what is a fair go for all.

Utopia
Guest

[http://www.smh.com.au/sport/cricket/on-the-sledge-cricketing-insults-to-aspire-to-20131125-2y596.html]

Some of these sledges are good, but the retorts are just classic! :devil:

Utopia
Guest

The AEC has still not provided a national TPP result.

…..just saying…..

Henry
Guest

Both Nielsen and Newspoll could be correct given the MOE I imagine.

Utopia
Guest

Are they using 2010 or 2013 preference distributions?

Does anyone know?

mexicanbeemer
Guest

Using my technique the numbers appear to add up.

zoidlord
Guest

So Nielsen isn’t close off the mark then right?

Utopia
Guest

Thank Ghost, s/he/it always comes good around this time on Newspoll weekends!

Strong UnionsStrongCountry
Guest
Strong UnionsStrongCountry

Tom the first and best

Posted Monday, November 25, 2013 at 10:50 pm | Permalink

1017

“Complex” usually means disadvantaged. The Liberals do not really want disadvantaged schools to compete with the advantaged schools (where the Liberals and their ilk send their children).
=================================================

Abbott and his front bench are products of “advantaged” schools.

Like an oxymoron isn’t it?

zoidlord
Guest

@Sean/1031

Now your referring to your usual rants about Labor.

mexicanbeemer
Guest

Thanks Mod Lib

All the polls seem to show that the voters are still mostly kind to the government but there is no great love and affection for it.

Sean Tisme
Guest

52% TPP to Coalition!!

Biggest turn around in TPP in 1 Day in Australian history, I eagerly await the SMH Article tomorrow stating such but I won’t hold my breath

Confessions
Guest

[The Coalition plans to scrap the $500 Low Income Super Contribution for people earning less than $37,000 a year as part of its bill to repeal the mining tax.]

Of course if the coalition really cared about women in the workforce they’d hang onto those changes, rather than impose onto taxpayers a PPL scheme that manifestly benefits women in high paid, secure employment.

Henry
Guest

Labor primary up 3 coalition down 2.
Good result for ALP.

sprocket_
Guest

something looks dodgy with this math

[GhostWhoVotes ‏@GhostWhoVotes 42s
#Newspoll Primary Votes: L/NP 43 (-2) ALP 35 (+3) GRN 10 (-2) #auspol
Details
GhostWhoVotes ‏@GhostWhoVotes 1m
#Newspoll 2 Party Preferred: L/NP 52 (-1) ALP 48 (+1) #auspol
Details]

Utopia
Guest

[GhostWhoVotes ‏@GhostWhoVotes 1m
#Newspoll Primary Votes: L/NP 43 (-2) ALP 35 (+3) GRN 10 (-2) #auspol]

Sean Tisme
Guest

zoidlord,

Tasmania’s economy under the Greens-Labor Economic Utopia is a basketcase.

Lara isn’t a position to give lectures on anything, her government is a like a leach on the Australian economy and finances. 8.6% Unemployment there last time I checked, well done Lara!

Henry
Guest

Ghost has tweeted Newspoll 52-48 to coalition.

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