The latest quarterly EMRS poll of state voting intention in Tasmania, conducted last week from a sample of 854 respondents, records Labor at just 22%, down six points from an already disastrous showing last time, although the pollsters’ charts suggest this to be part of a two-year pattern in which the Labor vote bounces up and down within the twenties. The Liberal vote is also down three points to a still commanding 49%, the drop making room for the rise of the Palmer United Party from 1% to 5%. The Greens are also up four points to 19%, their strongest showing since August last year. Kevin Bonham calculates this as an absolute majority for the Liberals with 13 or 14 seats out of 25, up from their present 10.

Below is a poll tracking chart derived from the full gamut of published polling from the current term, encompassing 14 EMRS and four ReachTEL polls. I’ve recalibrated the bias adjustments that probably marked the Greens down too hard last time (a tendency to inflate the Greens vote being a clear feature of EMRS polling in particular), which was based on federal election results that were complicated by the Andrew Wilkie factor in Denison. On top of the bias adjustment, the polling suggests that the Greens are pulling out of a lull that kicked in at the start of the year, with little change to major party support since the start of 2012.

The Burnie Advocate also reports that a ReachTEL poll of 657 respondents commissioned, for some reason, by the Nationals puts support for the Liberals across the northern and central Tasmanian electorates of Lyons, Bass and Braddon at 52% compared with 26% for Labor and 13% for the Greens, adding to the impression that the Liberals are very well placed to win third seats in each electorate, which would very likely secure them a parliamentary majority.

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