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Federal Politics 2013-

Dec 12, 2013

BludgerTrack: 51.2-48.8 to Labor

Another strong result for Labor from a major pollster pushes them to giddy new heights on the BludgerTrack poll aggregate, which has now branched out into leader satisfaction and preferred prime minister.

A strong result for Labor from Newspoll sees blue and red cross paths on the BludgerTrack two-party preferred aggregate, with Labor seizing its first substantial lead since the aggregate opened for business late last year. Labor has also been boosted to one shy of an absolute majority on the seat projection, with the Coalition crashing to 70. The state breakdowns find Labor back to 2010 territory in Victoria, and doing rather a lot better than that in Queensland and Western Australia.

While mostly the work of Newspoll, part of the shift to Labor is the result of a modelling tweak to deal with the particular difficulty posed by Essential Research, which instead of favouring a particular party over time appears to have a bias towards stability. Bias adjustments based on its pre-election performance have accordingly been correcting for a lean to Labor that disappeared together with the Coalition’s polling ascendancy. So I will instead be plotting the trend of Essential’s deviation from the model’s results, with the bias corrections adjusting over time.

The other big news on the BludgerTrack front is that it is now tracking leadership ratings as well as voting intention. Such data is available fortnightly from Newspoll and monthly from Nielsen and Essential Research, which at this state leaves a fairly shallow pool. It is nonetheless clear from the sidebar that meaningful trends are already evident. I am excluding from consideration the personal ratings from ReachTEL, whose refusal to give respondents an uncommitted option leads to idiosyncratic results.

In other news, Crikey subscribers might care to enjoy my article yesterday on the inquiry into the missing WA Senate ballots.

UPDATE: Kevin Bonham offers an excellent review of what the polls say, and what they mean (and don’t mean).

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2310 comments

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CTar1
Guest

[Group of 70 asylum seekers, including many children, arrive on Christmas Island]

http://www.abc.net.au/news/2013-12-14/70-asylum-seekers-arrive-on-christmas-island/5157120

Poor Scotty (and Shorn).

CTar1
Guest

MM

Enjoy.

The first hint of the GFC was the collapse of real estate values in Spain.

CTar1
Guest

modlib

[IM BACK BABY, IM BACK!]

Only a rabbit govt would let you back in.

Marrickville Mauler
Guest

Rossmore; Deblonay

Cheers from Barcelona (there for a few days myself at present)

Great place. They are rather struggling with huge unemployment though (particularly young people) which they and Spain more generally did very little to create – resentment of wall st cretins is understandably high. A reminder of what Swan and Rudd saved us from and what fathead Hockey and cronies would have given us .

Excellent public transport – will we ever see such a thing in Sydney?

Otiose
Guest

3:12am 15/12 Nett_NEWS by Otiose94 – http://bit.ly/1aQcqOy

Fulvio Sammut
Guest
My wife is a member of a group of ladies who have known each other since our kids were pre-schoolers 35 years ago. They meet half a dozen times a year or more and have a Christmas gathering each year to which the husbands are invited. The guys are all pretty much right wingers, small business types, who over the years I have known them have seldom had a good word to say about Labor. Last Christmas it was all about Gillard the witch, Labor waste, Labor’s internecine warfare, sink the Illegals, etc etc. We met again tonight. Tonight it… Read more »
deblonay
Guest

Finally an end to the US intervention in Syria ?..as the extreme islamists take over the rebel movement against Assad
—————-

http://www.theamericanconservative.com/larison/putting-an-end-to-the-idea-of-arming-the-syrian-oppos

Bugler
Guest

100 leeks is pretty impressive. When we moved to the suburbs we had to surrender quite a bit of the backyard to our dogs (two greyhounds), so can’t have quite as large a veggie patch as some. Still, a couple of tomato plants, beans and peas, a few pumpkins (all in pots), carrots, and lettuces (though the younger one has taken to the peculiar habit of voiding himself over them and the young sheoaks we planted as screening trees). We do also maintain a small orchard though as a sort of souvenir of where we’re from.

zoidlord
Guest

@MB/2298

It will be a shocker (RE: Treasurer).

mexicanbeemer
Guest

Zoidy

Yes the falling market does seem to be against the tide of global markets.

Hockey may think its a smart move to come out this week and trash the budget and try and blame the previous government but if it adversarial affects business confidence then that will rest at his feet.

silmaj
Guest

Chaos
Obviously it instant

mexicanbeemer
Guest
Sean -So its the media that showed Pyne confused over Gonski, we even had the minister claiming that the media had misunderstood his policies. It took everyday and a fair bit of heat for the minister to come out with a package of money for some parts of Australia. -Holden wanting a business arrangement but the government chose instead of negotiating with the company it chose to write a letter which was released to the media and for the Treasurer to rant in the parliament with the AFR front page. -Indonesia wanted a friendly chat about things which had been… Read more »
DisplayName
Guest

Tisme, mb didn’t mention chaos. It’s interesting that you would bring it up without prompting.

Sean Tisme
Guest

MB,

a lot of it is artificial “chaos” created by the leftwing ABC and Fairfax media. I mean the ABC and Fairfax blaming Abbott for spying under Labors watch?? Really?

After the Dog and Pony Show of the last 6 Years the media are desperate for their 24 Hour media cycle trying to invent news stories because they don’t have anything interesting to report otherwise.

zoidlord
Guest

@MB/2292

Yep, and the sign of retreating is from the Markets.

http://www.smh.com.au/business/markets-live/markets-live-fourth-week-of-losses-20131213-2zawe.html

While our local spending is up – that is due to being Christmas season and late shopping.

deblonay
Guest

Rossmore re Barcelona_______________
_________________
Some time ago we had a similar experience to yours . We arrived on the Feast of St James ,which is a big day with many events in the evening,streets closed for dancing and great fireworks and bonfires
It is a city with a great mood,and the people we found were friendly and open and there was a festive air,and much tossing of fireworks!….a bit worrying
great place though and I have no doubt they will create a vital and lively nation…though they are already that I think

DisplayName
Guest

I wish he’d try be consistent :(.

mexicanbeemer
Guest

Sean

After 100 days there is very little for this government to write home about.

It has made some positive noises on regulation and small business but besides that they have done very little and if the performance in QT this week is an indication of the internal mood of the government it is not a fun place too be at the moment.

This government’s best performer in the media as been Josh and he isn’t even in the cabinet.

Overall its been a poor start, 2/10 (trying to be positive)

PeeBee
Guest

Bugler, never thought about that. Bound to leave a bitter aftertaste They are just about finished any way, with several bolting.

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