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Federal Election 2016

Dec 15, 2013

Seat of the week: Grey

The seat which covers most of the geographical area of South Australia has typified Labor's decline in regional areas by transforming from safe Labor to safe Liberal status since the early 1990s.

Red and blue numbers respectively indicate booths with two-party majorities for Liberal and Labor. Click for larger image. Map boundaries courtesy of Ben Raue at The Tally Room.

The electorate of Grey has covered the bulk of South Australia’s land mass since the state was first divided into electorates in 1903, and it currently encompasses much the same territory as it did on its creation. The state’s eastern regions north of the Riverland were at times accommodated by Wakefield, but Grey has at all times accommodated the state’s west together with the “iron triangle” cities of Whyalla, Port Augusta and Port Pirie. Labor-voting Whyalla is the electorate’s largest centre with a population of around 22,000, while increasingly marginal Port Augusta and Port Pirie together with strongly conservative Port Lincoln on the lower Eyre Peninsula each have populations of slightly over 13,000. About 60 per cent of the electorate’s population is scattered through the remainder, the strongest concentration being in the rural conservative Yorke Peninsula. The latter area was added to the electorate from Wakefield when South Australia’s representation was reduced from 12 seats to 11 in 2004.

Grey’s industrial centres once made it a reliable seat for Labor, but their decline over recent decades has effected a decisive shift to the Liberals. Labor held the seat for all but one term between 1943 and 1993, the exception being after the landslide defeat of 1966. Laurie Wallis recovered the seat for Labor in 1969 and retained it by margins of 563 votes in 1975 and 65 votes in 1977, surviving on the latter occasion in the face of an unfavourable redistribution, and bequeathed the seat to Lloyd O’Neil in 1983. The turning point arrived in 1993, when the addition of the Clare Valley (since transferred to Wakefield) and the retirement of O’Neil opened the way for Barry Wakelin to win the seat for the Liberals on the back of a 4.3% swing. The Liberals’ position has been strengthening ever since, helping Wakelin to achieve swings of 6.4% in 1996, 1.9% in 2001 and 3.2% in 2004, with a correction of only 0.5% to Labor in 1998. Wakelin’s retirement in 2007 combined with the overall swing to Labor cut the margin that year from 13.8% to 4.4%, but the Liberal ascendancy has since been firmly re-established by successive swings of 6.7% and 2.4% in 2010 and 2013. The member since 2007 has been Rowan Ramsey, who runs a farming property at Buckleboo on the Eyre Peninsula.

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1234 comments

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MTBW
Guest

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zIEIvi2MuEk&feature=em-hot

Have a look at this – a bit of Christmas cheer among all the doom and gloom.

Psephos
Guest

[The only bit that hasn’t worked to plan so far is the Goneski stuff, the rest has been perfectly scripted.]

I laughed so hard I needed to go and have a cup of tea after reading that.

leone
Guest

Brong on the shithouse rat PM, it couldn’t be any worse than the PM we have now.

Sean Tisme
Guest

I think after 6 Years of Labor Chaos the media are trying to continue the same meme.. unsuccessfully with Abbott.

The only bit that hasn’t worked to plan so far is the Goneski stuff, the rest has been perfectly scripted.

slothy
Guest

Boerwar @ 1188
[Abbott is as cunning as a shithouse rat.

The problem is that shithouse rats do not make great prime ministers.]

I’m not so sure about the latter. I’d like to test it by replacing Abbott with one to test your hypothesis. My money would be on the rat being better than the incumbent.

Lynchpin
Guest

Abbott is a political thug backed by the owner of 70% of the media in Australia.

Drover’s dog, and all that.

Now, I consider Keating to be a brilliant politician.

lizzie
Guest

Obviously Abbott is a “brilliant politician” because he won the election.

But how long will it take for him to realise that there are many voters who don’t agree with what he’s doing now? He seems to think he has a “mandate” to do whatever he likes.

leone
Guest

don
Irony or a piece from the Burdekin Herald.

don
Guest

Darren Laver@1193

Mr Abbott has had a few minor misteps, but his new government shows competence, savy and a steady hand after the turblent Labor years……..

That is irony in its entirety, right?

slothy
Guest

[Latika Bourke ‏@latikambourke 3m
PM Abbott takes just one other question then walks off…..!]

So why not call him on it as he walks off? Ask him what he has to hide.

I seem to recall a former PM, can’t remember who, refusing to turn up for a Kerry O’Brien (I think) grilling and the empty chair being given prominence during the show. Said PM was never a non show after that.

Strong UnionsStrongCountry
Guest
Strong UnionsStrongCountry

eveyAus ‏@eveyaus 9h
@randlight @smh I’m stuck at that point, can’t make a happy ending where @MargaretAbbot10 and him drive off in a BMW to live happily E after
—————————————-

Abbott is more likely to drive off into the sunset with Credlin?

Bushfire Bill
Guest
[Just remember: acknowledging somebody’s political skills does not necessarily mean you actually think they’re doing a good job governing.] The Thousand Faces Of Tony Abbott were actually 998 until he was sworn in. Now we have “Prime Minister” and “Statesman” to add to the check list that starts with “Boofhead” and “Wall-puncher”. Surely there can’t be any more to come. Abbott would have to be one of the best known politicians in the country, even in Australian political history. Is there anything he hasn’t tried? OK, so he was a good LOTO, getting rid of Rudd first, then Gillard, then… Read more »
sohar
Guest

Women seem to be Tony’s big problem according to Morgan (don’t laugh) – women 58% to ALP, men 53% to Tories.

ruawake
Guest

[Ghost is late lately.]

The Ghost gets newspaper polls before mortals, others he is mortal.

mari
Guest

eveyAus ‏@eveyaus 9h
@randlight @smh I’m stuck at that point, can’t make a happy ending where @MargaretAbbot10 and him drive off in a BMW to live happily E after
Reply Retweet Favorite More Collapse
8:22 AM – 16 Dec 13 · Details
Margie Abbott ‏@MargaretAbbot10 1m
.@eveyaus @randlight @smh it would be a much happier ending if he went off alone. Just saying.

Love the humour of some of these tweeters

ruawake
Guest

PUP 3.5 Other 7.5

Rational Leftist
Guest

[The latter does not have the nerve to charge for their services! 😉 ]

And one would say you get what you pay for 😉

zoidlord
Guest

Ghost is late lately.

GhostWhoVotes ‏@GhostWhoVotes 44s

#Morgan Poll 2 Party Preferred: L/NP 47.5 (-1) ALP 52.5 (+1) #auspol

GhostWhoVotes ‏@GhostWhoVotes 4s

#Morgan Poll Primary Votes: L/NP 40.5 (-1) ALP 38.5 (0) GRN 10 (+1.5) PUP 3.5 (0) #auspol

Darren Laver
Guest

[Well, nobody needs it, but I daresay many readers would like to hear what somebody who knows what they’re talking about has to say about politics in 2013.

Well, more so than, say, hearing a rusted-on Labor supporter declaring Abbott a failure who’ll likely be toppled by Turnbull in the next few months, for the umpteen-millionth time.]

The latter does not have the nerve to charge for their services! ;-
)

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