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Federal Politics 2013-

Dec 28, 2013

Newspoll quarterly aggregates

The Australian has published aggregated breakdowns from the four Newspoll results since the election, suggesting Western Australia to be the outstanding performer in Labor's recent polling renaissance.

The Australian has published Newspoll’s quarterly aggregated federal polling featuring breakdowns by state, gender, age and city/non-city, for which GhostWhoVotes offers full tables. This amounts to a relatively small dataset from four post-election polls, with total samples ranging from a modest 554 in South Australia to 1352 in New South Wales. The first of the four polls was something of an outlier in having the Coalition leading 56-44 – comfortably their best result in any poll since the election – but the next three tracked the broader trend in having the Coalition two-party preferred vote progress from 53% to 52% to 48%. Labor looks to have made the biggest gains among its weakest cohorts, namely male and older voters.

The state numbers have been added to the BludgerTrack model, and the display on the sidebar revised accordingly. This has tended to moderate the distinctions between the state swings, with the exception of Western Australia where Newspoll records a thumping 8% two-party shift to Labor – a result complemented by today’s Newspoll state result, which you can read about in the post directly below. The Newspoll figures for New South Wales, Western Australia and South Australia were very close to BludgerTrack’s, but Victoria and Queensland were substantially better for the Coalition. Their addition causes the Coalition’s seat projection to improve by one each in the latter two states, which pans out to a net gain of one after accounting for a Labor gain in New South Wales.

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1325 comments

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Otiose
Guest

Update 31/12 Nett_NEWS http://bit.ly/1aQcqOy

zoidlord
Guest

@Sean/1322

What about the 1100 or so that arrived in the 3 months? if that becomes the norm, how many will be by the end Abbott’s first term?

Labor is no longer in Power, if Abbott can’t deal with the situation, he should quit politics.

Sean Tisme
Guest

AA,

There is a backlog of 33,000 Labor illegals yet to be processed.

Rub those 2 brain cells together and you’ll be able to answer your own question.

When Labor first came to power there was… read em… 4 people in detention. 4.

Now we have a backlog of 33,000 Labor illegals and the Coalition has to deal with the mess.

geoffrey
Guest

seany is a mob – no one soul could be here continually however zealous … william and sean t should keep company. as far those who love to argue with the virus

geoffrey
Guest

this five dollar fiasco is typical right wing tory attack on the poor when the main culprits are at the other end – elective and non elective private surgery – where nobody wins except vastly overpaid specialists. the gap needs regulation – as do specialist fees generally.

zoidlord
Guest

http://www.customs.gov.au/site/131227mediarelease_minister_first100days.asp

“Maritime deterrence operations will continue as we also look to implement our expanded regional cooperation in Malaysia and to restore joint operations with Indonesia as soon as possible.”

Didn’t Gillard get blamed alot via Media on Malaysia, yet now Abbott doing the same as Gillard?

Roxanna
Guest
[1275 Psephos Posted Monday, December 30, 2013 at 11:02 pm | PERMALINK Who can forget Bob Hawke promising no child would live in poverty? What was actually in the written version of his speech was “By 1990 no Australian child will need to live in poverty.” That was a worked-out, costed and feasible policy, and it was in fact largely carried out by Brian Howe as Social Security Minister. Hawke on the podium had a rush of blood to the head and left out the words “need to”, thus rendering the promise absurd. It is probably true, however, that if… Read more »
Strong UnionsStrongCountry
Guest
Strong UnionsStrongCountry

SEan
if boats are stopping why are detention centres expanding at millions of dollar cost?

why is the private contractor hiring more staff?

zoidlord
Guest

@Sean/1313

So apparently we are spending more money in AS, but cutting in other area’s.

paaptsef
Guest

Surely a tiny little island at the centre of Op Sov Bor operations can’t be that hard to defend but no, people seem to be able to turn up on the beach and wander around for days. Quite comical really.

zoidlord
Guest

@Sean/1309

Boat’s still haven’t stopped.

Sean Tisme
Guest

http://www.customs.gov.au/site/operation-sovereign-borders.asp

7 Boats have arrived in December.

And as mentioned on ABC, the number of arrivals is the lowest in 5 Years for the month of November.

You don’t have to like facts and the truth, but what you can’t do is deny them.

Socrates
Guest

How is that budget surplus coming along Sean? Was that another Hockey whopper?

Night all.

B.C.
Guest

I sat through two category 1 cyclones in my time in the Pilbara. Just stay inside, and maybe keep away from the windows, and everything will be fine. The houses there are built to take it.

The one thing I would not do is go outside. I have seen what a category 1 cyclone can do with a piece of corrugated sheeting.

paaptsef
Guest

Who knows how many people are arriving undetected if Op Sov Bor can’t defend a tiny little island

Sean Tisme
Guest

Centre is making shit up is why.

He claimed 36 Boats arrived in December which is clearly a delusional… unhingement.. from reality.

It happens when the left have lost a debate… invent a conspiracy theory. It’s a common trait I have noticed.

paaptsef
Guest

Assume there are regular searches on the beaches of Christmas Island since Op Sov Bor was shown to be useless

Socrates
Guest

Noting the pattern in the refugee numbers, boat arrivals peak in the winter months around July each year. It will be interesting to see what Morrison says in July 2014or indeed if any numbers will be released them?

confessions
Guest

[The boats keep coming.]

But the boats have slowed significantly since the then Labor govt announced that nobody who arrived by boat would get a visa.

Of course the boats will never stop completely, but if Abbott’s slogan had been Slow The Boats, he might have been in a better position to claim credit for the current numbers.

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