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Federal Election 2016

Jan 12, 2014

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Held since the 2010 election by independent Andrew Wilkie, Denison encompasses Hobart along the western shore of the Derwent River and the hinterland beyond, with the eastern shore Hobart suburbs and southern outskirts township of Kingston accommodated by Franklin. Like all of Tasmania’s electorates, Denison has been little changed since Tasmania was divided into single-member electorates in 1903, with the state’s representation consistently set at the constitutional minimum of five electorates per state.

Grey and red numbers respectively indicate booths with two-party majorities for Andrew Wilkie and Labor. Click for larger image. Map boundaries courtesy of Ben Raue at The Tally Room.

Prior to 2010 the seat was presumed to be safe for Labor, notwithstanding the local strength of the Greens. Labor’s first win in Denison came with their first parliamentary majority at the 1910 election, but the seat was lost to the 1917 split when incumbent William Laird Smith joined Billy Hughes in the Nationalist Party. Over subsequent decades it was fiercely contested, changing hands in 1922, 1925, 1928, 1931, 1934, 1940 and 1943. It thereafter went with the winning party until 1983, changing hands in 1949, 1972 and 1975.

Denison was held through the Fraser years by former state MP Michael Hodgman, who joined his four Tasmanian Liberal colleagues in picking up a swing against the trend of the 1983 election due to local anger over the Franklin dam issue. However, Hodgman’s margin wore away over the next two elections, and he was defeated in 1987 by Labor’s Duncan Kerr. Hodgman returned as a state member for Denison in 1992 before eventually bowing out due to poor health in 2010 (he died in June 2013). His son, Will Hodgman, is the state’s current Liberal Opposition Leader.

The drift to Labor evident in 1984 and 1987 was maintained during Kerr’s tenure, giving him consistent double-digit margins starting from 1993. In this he was substantially assisted by preferences from the emerging Greens. The preselection which followed Kerr’s retirement in 2010 kept the endorsement in the Left faction with the nomination of Jonathan Jackson, a chartered accountant and the son of former state Attorney-General Judy Jackson.

What was presumed to be a safe passage to parliament for Jackson was instead thwarted by Andrew Wilkie, who had come to national attention in 2003 when he resigned as an intelligence officer with the Office of National Assessments officer in protest over the Iraq war. Wilkie ran against John Howard as the Greens candidate for Bennelong in 2004, and as the second candidate on the Greens’ Tasmanian Senate ticket in 2007. He then broke ranks with the party to run as an independent candidate for Denison at the state election in 2010, falling narrowly short of winning one of the five seats with 9.0% of the vote.

Wilkie acheived his win in 2010 with just 21.2% of the primary vote, crucially giving him a lead over the Greens candidate who polled 19.0%. The distribution of Greens preferences put Wilkie well clear of the Liberal candidate, who polled 22.6% of the primary vote, and Liberal preferences in turn favoured Wilkie over Labor by a factor of nearly four to one. Wilkie emerged at the final count 1.2% ahead of Labor, which had lost the personal vote of its long-term sitting member Duncan Kerr. This left Wilkie among a cross bench of five members in the first hung parliament since World War II.

Wilkie declared himself open to negotiation with both parties as they sought to piece together a majority, which the Liberals took seriously enough to offer $1 billion for the rebuilding of Royal Hobart Hospital. In becoming the first of the independents to declare his hand for Labor, Wilkie criticised the promise as “almost reckless”, prompting suggestions from the Liberals that his approach was insincere.

The deal Wilkie reached with Labor included $340 million for the hospital and what proved to be a politically troublesome promise to legislate for mandatory pre-commitment for poker machines. When the government’s numbers improved slightly after Peter Slipper took the Speaker’s chair, the government retreated from the commitment. Wilkie responded by withdrawing his formal support for the government, although it never appeared likely that he would use his vote to bring it down.

Wilkie was comfortably re-elected at the 2013 election with 38.1% of the primary vote, despite an aggressive Labor campaign that included putting him behind the Liberals on how-to-vote cards. Both Labor (down from 35.8% to 24.8%) and the Greens (down from 19.0% to 7.9%) recorded double-digit drops, and most of the northern suburbs booths which had stayed with Labor in 2010 were won by Wilkie. His final margin over Labor after preferences was up from 1.2% to 15.5%, while the Labor-versus-Liberal two-party preferred count recorded a 6.9% swing to the Liberals and a Labor margin of 8.9%.

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775 comments

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Otiose
Guest

05:03:00 14/01/2014 ——- Nett_NEWS++™ http://bit.ly/1aQcqOy NB Pique of the Week

ShowsOn
Guest

[Who cares about the poll numbers 3 years out.

Howard didn’t care and he won 4 elections]
And lost 2.

zoomster
Guest
Rod Hagen 405. It and I have had a long and (initially) contentious relationship – it used to break down in the most ridiculous places when I was driving (for example, in a torrential rainstorm, 300 metres from home, out of mobile range…) We put it up for sale. Had a very keen buyer turn up — and the car would not start. Towed it for kilometres to jump start it, no luck. So we banished it to the shed for about three years, where it gathered a nice collection of spider webs on the inside and peacock poop on… Read more »
confessions
Guest

[Read it and smile. From Smaug , one of several posters of it.]

Oh dear. Not a good start to the year for the new govt!

Strong UnionsStrongCountry
Guest
Strong UnionsStrongCountry

Rorters

People who claim taxpayer funded travel to attend a mates wedding

People who claim taxpayer funded travel to check on their investment properties

People who claim travel to attend rugby games

People who claim taxpayer funded travel to attend AFL games

People who claim taxpayer funded travel to promote their book

People who claim taxpayer funded travel to ride a bike

poroti
Guest

Player One

One question is why last time Murdoch and the GG lead the charge against the deal and why so far they have been :tumbleweeds: ?

ruawake
Guest

Tism

Shaw was elected as a Liberal, or did you forget that bit?

Sean Tisme
Guest

[I wouldn’t be dismissing Daniel Andrews chance of becoming Victoria’s Premier]

Have you seen this guy in action?

Maybe he’ll be just what the doctor ordered for Victoria though, they really need their economy destroyed Tassie style to wake up and smell the coffee

citizen
Guest

[Abbott is opening Australia up for a screwing like you wouldn’t believe.]

His proposal to “cut red and green tape” by rescinding 8,000 pieces of legislation is just the start.

Player One
Guest

[ Abbott has a propensity to be willing to sell his arse. Looks like he’ll sell the whole nation’s. Even Howard ran a mile from this deal once the implications ,same now as then , were revealed. ]

Sad, isn’t it? Abbott makes Howard look like a leftie!

poroti
Guest

gloryconsequence

Read it and smile. From Smaug , one of several posters of it.

[

ALP (52.5%) start 2014 with a clear lead over L-NP (47.5%) in 1st @roymorganonline poll of 2014 ]

http://www.roymorgan.com/findings/5371-federal-voting-intention-january-13-2014-201401130606

Sean Tisme
Guest

Ruawake,

it just surprises me that Vic Labor would jump into bed with Geoff Shaw to try and punish a speaker who reported him for coruption.

It really hits new lows for Labor… but this doesn’t surprise me, rorters seem to be their bread and butter these days.

Steve777
Guest

Luckily the Vic opposition leader is such an arse clown I can’t see him ever being Premier

I’m not close to Victorian politics but judging by Tony Abbott, arse-clownery seems to be no barrier to high office, at least in the Federal sphere.

poroti
Guest

Player One

[Abbott is opening Australia up for a screwing like you wouldn’t believe. ]
Abbott has a propensity to be willing to sell his arse. Looks like he’ll sell the whole nation’s. Even Howard ran a mile from this deal once the implications ,same now as then , were revealed.

mexicanbeemer
Guest

I wouldn’t be dismissing Daniel Andrews chance of becoming Victoria’s Premier, talking to several people within the public sector/government there is a real sense that the Government faces an uphill battle to win the next Victorian election.

Even Liberal Party people are not overly confidence of winning.

Strong UnionsStrongCountry
Guest
Strong UnionsStrongCountry

Sean Tisme

Posted Monday, January 13, 2014 at 7:25 pm | Permalink

At times when I am getting frustrated with the facist rants of Sean look to that column n te right of my screen

I bet you used to wank yourself silly for all those bad polls during the Howard years as well.
—————–

Talk about unhinging…wow…settle down before you blow a gasket

ruawake
Guest

Tism

Keep you jocks on. Ken Smith has just been knobbled by his own party pre-selecting someone else for his seat. Yet its the ALPs fault?

A doozy even by your low standards.

gloryconsequence
Guest

Where are the polls

Strong UnionsStrongCountry
Guest
Strong UnionsStrongCountry

Sean Tisme

Posted Monday, January 13, 2014 at 7:22 pm | Permalink

ruawake,

Vic Labor got in bed with Geoff Shaw to take revenge on Ken Smith for reporting him.

This is fact. They should be embarrassed. Luckily the Vic opposition leader is such an arse clown I can’t see him ever being Premier
===========================

You got a link to support your rant?

Sean Tisme
Guest

[At times when I am getting frustrated with the facist rants of Sean look to that column n te right of my screen]

I bet you used to wank yourself silly for all those bad polls during the Howard years as well.

Player One
Guest
lizzie@715 Uh-oh. Australia’s Trade Minister says #TPP close to being sealed http://www.theaustralian.com.au/from-gday-usa-to-promised-pacific-pact/story-fn59nm2j-1226800177929?sv=7fb519582c91c567bfe4c9e4bec6f2c4 … No mention of IP issues with impact on health & internet Abbott is opening Australia up for a screwing like you wouldn’t believe. For Abbott, the advantage is that the effects won’t be really obvious till he has left office – or so he hopes. For Australia, it means goodbye PBS, goodbye bulk billing, goodbye medical innovation, and hello to a health system on par with the USA – the worst health system of any developed country in the world. You can also say goodbye to local… Read more »
Strong UnionsStrongCountry
Guest
Strong UnionsStrongCountry

At times when I am getting frustrated with the facist rants of Sean look to that column n te right of my screen

Labor 52%
Coalition 48%

Labor 80 seats
Coalition 65 seats

Now I know 3 years is a long time, but this is the change within the first 100 days. It can only get worse for Abbott and the Coalition of Four.

We could see the Coalition self destruct and the other Parties that enable the Liberal Abbott to be PM decide that he is too much of a liar and back flip artist to deserve their on-going support.

Sean Tisme
Guest

ruawake,

Vic Labor got in bed with Geoff Shaw to take revenge on Ken Smith for reporting him.

This is fact. They should be embarrassed. Luckily the Vic opposition leader is such an arse clown I can’t see him ever being Premier

poroti
Guest

BK

[
There are currently no fires in all of SA.]
And may it stay so.

Sean Tisme
Guest

Who cares about the poll numbers 3 years out.

Howard didn’t care and he won 4 elections

ruawake
Guest

Ken Smith is retiring because Aaron Brown knicked his Seat. Simple. 😛

Socrates
Guest

Evening all. Looking forward to the next poll numbers for that “mighty leader”, Tony Abbott. If nothing else, he has proven that criticising is easy, but doing something useful is hard.

poroti
Guest

Steve777

Anything less than 4.0 is a Meh.

victoria
Guest

Boerwar@698
Citizen@727

I feel that the Indonesian situation continues to be rather fluid. Who knows where it will go

BK
Guest

There are currently no fires in all of SA. Three days to go.

poroti
Guest

Sean Tisme

Have you any thoughts on the latest poll ?

Steve777
Guest

A 3.7 Earthquake on the Richter scale is about. 30 times more powerful than a 2.7. It’s a logarithmic scale that increases 1,000-fold for each two levels. Most people would not feel a 2.7 unless they were in a quiet location and even then they might think it’s a passing truck. A 3.7 would be quite noticeable but would cause little if any damage.

Bugler
Guest
citizen
Guest

[lizzie

Since returning to Canada, I have been dying for a flat white, which is an Australian invention

The Flat White is a true ANZAC effort]

In China and HK many McDonald’s places have a McCafe (which is also an Australian invention according to Wikipedia).

The McCafes sell Flat White etc. and also something called Americano which is a short black weakened by a lot of hot water. They also sell lamingtons!

poroti
Guest

BK

Only when your scroll finger develops a 6 pack.

Sean Tisme
Guest

So Ken Smith, who reported Geoff Shaw for corruption… is being replaced because Labor decided to get into bed with Geoff Shaw to attack him as speaker?

Does Vic Labor have NO Shame?! They truly are grubs.

WeWantPaul
Guest

[My body has developed a defensive nervous tic. Every time I sight a post by ST my finger reflexively scrolls past it.
Do I have a problem?]

There is some comedy gold you miss.

BK
Guest

My body has developed a defensive nervous tic. Every time I sight a post by ST my finger reflexively scrolls past it.
Do I have a problem?

Socrates
Guest

Sean
[Is there a carpenter in the house? The amount of unhingement is seriously becoming a problem]
I applaud your honesty and agree, but it sounds like you need a psychiatrist, not a carpenter.

Socrates
Guest

Ruawake

Thanks again, and glad to hear that. The NRL got it right. I was still appalled by Bennett’s comments. Perhaps he was misquoted.

Strong UnionsStrongCountry
Guest
Strong UnionsStrongCountry

Sean Tisme

Posted Monday, January 13, 2014 at 6:57 pm | Permalink

Is there a carpenter in the house? The amount of unhingement is seriously becoming a problem
=============================================

Just keep taking the medication, I’m sure you will recover

ruawake
Guest

[Thanks! The system works (sort of, and rather slowly)]

He would never have played for Newcastle, the NRL had deregistered him. They were just waiting for the sentence to stop lawyer at 20 paces.

poroti
Guest

WeWantPaul

[
Ordering a long black in the US can be a bit tricky]
Nowhere near as bad as a ciggie smoking team mate of mine in the late 70’s asking one of our US hosts “Have you got a fag I can borrow ? ” . There was a sudden deathly silence amongst our hosts 😆

WeWantPaul
Guest

[Did you consider just asking for a super-sized espresso?
]

Eventually I asked the waitress who was almost always African American what should I call a coffee with no milk that filled up a normal cup – she looked at my like I was an idiot and with a heavy southern accent suggested that she would call it a black coffee. I don’t think my hotel was fancy enough for expresso. The barman made rose wine by mixing a house red with a house white and made ginger ale by watering down coke with soda water.

ruawake
Guest

[Is there a carpenter in the house?]

Nah but I reckon many from WA wish there still was.

Socrates
Guest

Ruawake

Thanks! The system works (sort of, and rather slowly).

ruawake
Guest

Socrates.

[The Newcastle Knights have sacked Russell Packer after the NRL player was sentenced to two years’ jail for a drunken assault.

The club issued a statement on Monday saying Packer had been formally advised his contract had been terminated, effective immediately.]

Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/rugby-league/league-news/russell-packer-sacked-by-newcastle-knights-20140113-30pmg.html#ixzz2qGOmTBR7

citizen
Guest
The Jakarta Post article posted by Victoria shows that there is considerable confusion if not discord between senior Indonesian politicians and officials at this time. This is not unexpected given the jockeying for influence leading up to their elections. What is disconcerting from reading the article is that the Howard and Abbott governments appear to listen only to those Indonesian voices that seem to agree with (or not dispute) what they are doing to boat people. If this is actually the case, it indicates that Abbott and Morrison are ignoring the totality of advice that DFAT would be giving the… Read more »
CTar1
Guest

Bw

I mite seem like moaning but all is OK.

Rod can do whatever with his Renaaths

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