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Federal Politics 2013-

Jan 16, 2014

BludgerTrack: 52.0-48.0 to Labor

The Track is back – but with only two new poll results to go on, and no sign so far of any change since before the break.

With the return of Morgan and Essential Research, the weekly BludgerTrack poll aggregate is also back in business, albeit that it’s on a fairly shaky footing at present given the shallow pool of new data. However, since both polls show little change on the situation as they were recording it before the break, there’s nothing in national figures that should arouse any controversy. Both major parties and the Palmer United Party are down slightly on the primary vote, with the slack taken up by the Greens and others, and there is no change at all on two-party preferred. The seat projection nonetheless ticks a point in the Coalition’s favour owing to the vagaries of the latest state-level data. Full details, as always, on the sidebar (to those wondering why there are three data points after the break rather than two, the Morgan poll has been broken down into two results to account for it having been conducted over two weekends).

The monthly personal ratings from Essential Research also allow for an update to the leadership ratings, but this should be treated with even greater caution given that there’s only one result available from the past month. So while it may be that the air is indeed going out of Bill Shorten’s honeymoon, you would want to see more than one data point from Essential Research before jumping to such a conclusion, which is essentially all the model is reacting to at present. This points to a broader difficulty with the BludgerTrack leadership rating methodology which I aim to address in due course, namely the lack of any adjustment for each pollsters’ idiosyncrasies. There will thus be a tendency for the numbers to move around based purely on which particular pollster happens to have reported most recently. When enough data is available, I will start tracking each pollsters’ variation from the aggregated trend and applying “bias” adjustments accordingly.

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2049 comments

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jules
Guest

LSL @ 2018

Saying “thats just my opinion” and offering nothing else in the way of .. well anything is exactly my point. And just sayinmg “your opinion” without offering anything to counter that opinion kind of supports my opinion in this context. The LNP stands for nothing besides bigotry and self interest at the cost of our national interest.

Anti science – the LNPs reaction to climate change is evidence enough. The lack of a science minister, despite the fact that science is the future – thats the obvious thing. Its a general anti knowledge attitude the party has these days.

Bigotry and racism – well thats obvious, of course the ALP has its share of bigots too but the ALP moved on from its white Australia roots years ago.The LNP was the party responsible for implementing the referendum on indigenous recognition, Harold Holt ended the White Australia Policy, Fraser followed up with Land Rights legislation (tho it was a bipartisan thing at the time,) and enabled a humane response to a boat people driven refugee crisis.

WTF happened? These days we have actual persecution of refugees Muslims and non traditional families as the new Jews and the great nephew of an SS-Brigadeführer dictating industrial policy while the Qld LNP actively undermines democracy with stupid legislation banning associations they don’t like, parties or get togethers that don’t have state approval and, with a strict reading of the legislation, beer and chocolate.

Once upon a time the LNP offered support to small business and farmers for example – not anymore. These days its all multinational business and CSG over farmlands every time.

etc etc

And still you can’t produce a coherent reasonable comment about what the current LNP actually stands for other than naked self interest and power for its own sake.

Fran Barlow
Guest

LSL

[In many ways he was the opponent you bludgers deserved. Your conservative mirror. He only attracted so much attention because there was only one of him and so many more of you.]

I don’t agree that ST was a conservative. The persona was simply a reactionary megaphone. No item of LNP nonsense was so palpable that ST would decline to utter it in tones of high dudgeon and culture war and then make not even a modest attempt to defend it.

Most who post here lean to the right or here and there cautiously and ever so slightly to the small-l liberal left, depending on the issue. IMO that makes this place on the whole conservative. Few propose radical change in favour of the socially marginalised. Most favour substantial action on climate change but the idea that some effort to protect the balance of ecosystem services that enabled humanity to live as well as we do is a conservative idea rather than a radical one. Favouring renewables is not culturally radical either, as one can do this out of a preference for localism or a cleaner biosphere or energy independence or the desire for profitable business.

Most here are sympathetic to same sex marriage, but there are conservative arguments for this as well as those founded in social justice or respect for the humanity of others. Marriage is a conservative concept in the mind of most leftists.

ST was boorish. He (?) brought a foul odour rather than fresh air to discussion and wouldn’t even discuss why he was directing his malodorous venting here. I suspect that as with RT the author(s) decided it was time to retire the character and this motivated the imprecation to others to top themselves. I expect the next iteration to have the initials TT but I suppose we’ll see.

Fran Barlow
Guest

I have long found Adams a genial chap to listen to in short bursts, but what I did find annoying was his tendency to talk over the often very interesting guests and to put words into their mouths, often when they were coming to the point he inserted over their commentary or else when they were about to go somewhere more interesting to me.

I’m not sure whether this was Adams showing he knew stuff or whether he really was just over enthusiastic about the guest’s particular corpus of expertise, but in a short show it was really annoying.

BK
Guest
mexicanbeemer
Guest

Yes and the ALP didn’t view Tone as dangerous either and we know how that turned out.

Leisure Suit Larry
Guest

[Which makes Shorten more dangerous for the Liberals than most ALP leaders as he went to Xavs which gives him an insight and connection with those wealthy ones.]

I don’t view Shorten as dangerous to anyone, and I doubt the Liberals do either.

Leisure Suit Larry
Guest

[I doubt either side has any great desire to be cannon fodder in Abbott’s mindless he-man fantasy.]

Do you really think that Tony Abbott is a he-man fantasist? Personally I am not sure. Does he lie awake fantasizing about leading the nation in time of war and bombing the Indonesians back to the stone age?

I haven’t really got that vibe from him to be honest. I don’t think anyone in the Coalition wants a war as such, although I don’t think they will climb down over the boats issue either.

mexicanbeemer
Guest

Which makes Shorten more dangerous for the Liberals than most ALP leaders as he went to Xavs which gives him an insight and connection with those wealthy ones.

Just Me
Guest

[1941
Rossmore

Centre 1937 no argument from me on that, but in a difficult tense operational sphere where you are under orders to “tow back” and abandon a vessel, the lesser of two evils may well be to cross the border and release the vessel closer to shore. I believe our front line armed forces are highly professional and may well have made that call on safety grounds. It would have been an honorable decision IMHO.]

There may well also be a quiet nod-and-a-wink understanding developing between the frontline Oz and Indonesian border forces. I doubt either side has any great desire to be cannon fodder in Abbott’s mindless he-man fantasy.

Leisure Suit Larry
Guest

[Yes the elites, many of whom are Liberal supporters or at least live in plum Liberal seats.]

It is very difficult to be wealthy and maintain unfashionable social views these days. Fortunately for the LNP though, it is also still very difficult to be wealthy and to knowingly vote your wealth away to a party of the fiscally irresponsible and ideologically redistributionist.

imacca
Guest

[We’d rather have Tony Abbott.]

Yup, there are obviously a significant number of rather stupid people out there who hold that opinion. Still, from recent polling it would appear there are fewer now than in Sept 13.

mexicanbeemer
Guest

Sure it is possible that the Liberals could win in 2016 and history would suggest that they will obtain a second term but the ALP are in better shape today than they were in 1996.

If the economy preforms as poorly as forecast then its quite possible that come 2016 with a unified ALP with at least three solid policies (NDIS,NBN & Gonski) the ALP could well win the next poll.

A next six months will set the narrative for this government so time will tell.

Leisure Suit Larry
Guest

[extensive skills and experience in positive policy implementation]

This is such a lovely example of modern day progressive political language. But believe it or not there are some of us who don’t care much for your positive policy implementation.

We’d rather have Tony Abbott. And I have a feeling that despite all of the hurdles, come the next election Australians will vote to have him again.

mexicanbeemer
Guest

Yes the elites, many of whom are Liberal supporters or at least live in plum Liberal seats.

imacca
Guest

[But the last Labor Prime Minister was regarded even by his own colleagues as a psychopath, so what are you going to do.]

Vote for the relatively competent psychopath who would have headed up a front bench with extensive skills and experience in positive policy implementation rather than the incompetent moron with no actual policies heading up a front bench of has been and never were wastes of space.

Leisure Suit Larry
Guest

[But there is a simple reason why he hedges his bets on CC and that is he knows many Liberals particularly the cosmopolitan ones will be most displeased.]

I think the LNP feared that the ridicule they would face from the elites if they went for full on climate “denialism” would be of such potency that it could taint them even amongst ordinarily intelligent voters.

I’m not sure if they were right, but they played it safe and devised their BS direct action policy which allowed them to play both sides of the issue.

mexicanbeemer
Guest

But there is a simple reason why he hedges his bets on CC and that is he knows many Liberals particularly the cosmopolitan ones will be most displeased.

Leisure Suit Larry
Guest

[On the evidence (policy incompetence, diplomatic skill set, lying, shuddering brainlock under pressure ) he is simply not fit to hold any responsible office.]

Oh he leaves a lot to be desired. But the last Labor Prime Minister was regarded even by his own colleagues as a psychopath, so what are you going to do.

imacca
Guest

[Surely such honesty is refreshing?]

Nope. Admitting to a vice does not make it a virtue.

And he is inconsistent anyway.

Abbott chooses to align himself with the idiot Grumpy True Disbeliever demographic. The kind of morons who consider that their opinion about climate science is worth more than actually looking at the data. Yet he hedges and claims that he and the LNP “accept the science”.

On the evidence (policy incompetence, diplomatic skill set, lying, shuddering brainlock under pressure ) he is simply not fit to hold any responsible office.

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