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Tasmanian Politics

Jan 16, 2014

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Tasmanian Premier Lara Giddings has confirmed March 15 as her government’s date with the polls, which for the second successive occasion means a super Saturday on which elections are held in both Tasmania and South Australia. My most recent poll aggregate chart is featured below, encompassing the crudely bias-adjusted results of 14 EMRS and four ReachTEL polls.

UPDATE (17/1): Kevin Bonham and Ben Raue at The Tally Room have typically excellent reviews of the situation, complete with candidate overviews and such. My own overview will appear in Crikey later today.

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Kevin Bonham
Guest

http://kevinbonham.blogspot.com.au/2014/02/libs-reachtel-not-completely-over-line.html

Libs’ ReachTEL: Not Completely Over The Line

An internal ReachTEL the Liberals have released is the first Tasmanian state poll for some time that shows the outcome in any doubt at all.

My Mark Grewar piece has hit the local limelight:

These from ABC:

http://www.abc.net.au/news/2014-02-03/pup-candidate-defended/5235882?section=tas
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2014-02-03/palmer-united-party-defends-state-poll-candidate-over-social-me/5235278

This one from Sally Glaetzer (Mercury) is more in-depth and includes the candidate’s responses/excuses:

http://www.themercury.com.au/news/tasmania/pup-candidate-mark-grewar-in-liberal-party-firing-line/story-fnj4f7k1-1226817089752

Kevin Bonham
Guest

Oh but now it’s back up again at a different URL.

Kevin Bonham
Guest

My candidate guide now has question marks next to eight PUP candidates.

http://kevinbonham.blogspot.com.au/2014/01/2014-tasmanian-state-election-candidate.html

Their names were released in an otherwise unheralded video that a few PUP supporters were linking to on Twitter yesterday. I investigated the background to one of them and found a Google trainwreck suggesting due diligence failure by PUP in selecting this candidate. As the candidate had apparently published anti-gay material, I published his Google trainwreck. The video listing the eight candidates has now been taken down.

Coast
Guest

Strange to think the pulp mill is being revitalised thru such overt political interference on the eve of an election. The last time those actions were applied it forced the resignation of a premier ( Lennon ) and gave the Greens a solid 2010 election result, didn’t it? Is it not a politically poisonous issue for the majors to go anywhere near? I look forward to the release of the next opinion poll whenever that may be.

Roxanna
Guest

Kevin, I completely agree. But I bet it does become an election issue, when the focus should be on other more real and realistic issues. What a waste of time and money this is going to be.

Kevin Bonham
Guest

The pulp mill thing is a joke; anyone who thinks this election should be about building the pulp mill has forfeited the right to call PUP ridiculous.

I’m not opposed to the idea of the mill per se but I am opposed to massive or indeed any government subsidisation of a private project. And I don’t see any evidence that the thing is anywhere near viable on purely private funding at this time. Millions of dollars of state funds have been wasted on this pipe dream already.

Roxanna
Guest

Here we go again.

[MORE than 600 people packed into the Tailrace Centre in Launceston last night for a public forum against the Tamar Valley Pulp Mill.

The full house heard from a panel of anti-pulp mill speakers including Peter McGlone, Lucy Landon-Lane, Vanessa Bleyer and Bass Greens MHA Kim Booth.

Mr Booth said Premier Lara Giddings had let down a community that expected the “blight” of the Tamar Valley pulp mill to be removed.]

http://www.examiner.com.au/story/2040588/both-sides-out-in-force-for-forum/?cs=95

Kevin Bonham
Guest

A mystery today is the candidacy of Barbara Etter for PUP in Denison. Denison is PUP’s worst seat and the best to run as an indie in. Etter’s existing branding is a perfect fit with a Wilkie-style indie bid and a dubious fit with PUP – unless Etter has gone over to PUP’s conspiracy-theory tinfoil-hat brigade.

Mark Duffett
Guest

Cheers Kevin.

Kevin Bonham
Guest
The 19% figure comes from EMRS after they redistribute their rather high undecided rates proportionally. However, past experience is that the Greens’ actual vote never matches these EMRS figures – those flagged by EMRS as undecided do not vote Green. Although EMRS gives Labor as 22 and Green on 19 a more plausible reading of their poll is something like 26.5 to 16 and even that is high-end for the Greens compared to some of their state polling in 2013. Both William and I have aggregates with Labor in high 20s and Greens in mid teens. I went into this… Read more »
Mark Duffett
Guest
meherbaba@19 The basic demographics of this (anti-Green) thinking is that it is disproportionately represented among Tasmanians who were born here, are over the age of 50, have no tertiary educational qualifications (and in many instances haven’t completed secondary school) and do not live in Hobart. For what it’s worth, I am – born in Adelaide – under 50 – have postgraduate qualifications – live in Hobart and generally despise the Greens! So there you go. Does that make me an exceptional person? 😉 But what I actually came here to query was Kate Crowley’s piece in The Conversation today, in… Read more »
Roxanna
Guest

Socrates, what we need in Tasmania is for some young people to stay, and run for Parliament. What we’re being offered is recycled people, like Amos and Llewelyn.
Not all of us are comfortable with the entrenched poverty culture. If culture you can call it.

Socrates
Guest
William Kudos to you for covering the SA election. I hope it is the start of a growing career. MB [In my view the only really viable future for the Tasmanian economy is through the further development of a number of niche primary and tertiary areas: tourism (focusing on bushwalkers, foodies and arty farty types), high quality forest products (ie, timber rather than pulp), lifestyle (eg, high income teleworkers moving here from the mainland), scientific research (Antarctica, etc) and boutique, high quality agriculture (cheese, wine, berries, etc.)] I strongly agree. Tasmania’s economy has been a disaster in the past decade.… Read more »
Kevin Bonham
Guest

New Matilda commissioned me to write a thing about the election which is up on their website.

https://www.newmatilda.com/2014/01/19/tassie-will-be-gimme-libs

Some editing and the title is theirs not mine, eg “have predicted Will Hodgman’s Liberals could win an election” originally read “that had an election been held at the time, Will Hodgman’s Liberals would have won. “

Kevin Bonham
Guest
MagicPudding@35 they can’t seem to convince too many people via normal peaceful protests Obstructive protests are still peaceful. They are also pretty normal; they have been going on for decades. You mean “via protests which do not inconvenience anyone”. Not quite. For instance street marches cause inconvenience to traffic and cause costs to police that then come out of taxpayers’ pockets, but I don’t have a problem with those. Just as I don’t have a problem with the existence of government-funded media. Whether obstructive protests are deemed “peaceful” or not comes down to what context of “peace” is being used… Read more »
Tom the first and best
Guest
Tom the first and best

36

There is a vast distance between leaving a decades old existing wildlife corridor (created for non-environmental reasons) which has significant support, and killing humans which is only supported by the fringe of the fringe of the fringe. There are even more steps in between those two things, the most prominent being converting existing human use land back to wildlife use (not all that radical) to allowing and sometimes even encouraging the world population to decline.

peter cavanagh
Guest

You have missed the most important aspect of a Tasmanian election “family size” if all your family vote for you you are in.

Paul Austin
Guest

MagicPudding: The Green movement is getting more extreme. In Germany, they had the area around the former inner German border turned into a Mother Earth wilderness area simply because it had not been used by humans for years. They plan to do the same in Korea.
It’s only a small step from that to deciding that it’s ok to murder humans to clear the way for the restoration of areas of Mother Earth wilderness.

MagicPudding
Guest
Kevin@30, Mostly love your work, but I have to differ with you on the subject of protests. [they can’t seem to convince too many people via normal peaceful protests] Obstructive protests are still peaceful. They are also pretty normal; they have been going on for decades. You mean “via protests which do not inconvenience anyone”. […and there’s probably a reason for that] Indeed, and you gave it in your preceding sentence, […because it gets more publicity than just a peaceful rally.] A rally would need large numbers to attract national publicity, and even then there is no guarantee of coverage… Read more »
Kevin Bonham
Guest
I have great difficulty ordering my vote for the coming election because all three parties in parliament were fundamentally unpalatable to me at some stage or other. The Liberals when they all opposed abortion law reform and same-sex marriage, Labor and the Greens when they supported an amendment to anti-discrimination law that I viewed as having extremely dangerous implications for political commentary and internet debate. The latter was fixed by the Legislative Council but not before I put a lot of work into putting the case that it was not just right-wingers who had reason to be worried about the… Read more »
lizzie
Guest

meher baba @ 19

That was an excellent explanation (to me) of the Tassie political situation (and therefore the economic/environmental one). A microcosm of the mainland Australia, perhaps.

Roxanna
Guest
This is a great thread. Thanks Kevin and MB for your enlightening posts. I’ve voted here all my life, but I’m blowed if I know who to vote for this time. But my thoughts are crystallising now. As a Franklin voter, I have all three leaders in my electorate, and don’t really want any of them. Does anyone *really* think there will be a pulp mill? Are the markets even still there? I suspect that once any interested party gets a look at the books, they’ll walk away. If they don’t, the state will be split right down the middle… Read more »
Kevin Bonham
Guest
Tom the first and best@26 There has to be some ability to protest in a way that actually has an effect rather than just noise making. There always is but groups that want to go down that path should be prepared to pay the price. A big problem in Tasmania is that many environmental protest groups think they should be allowed to break the law by blockading, obstructing and trespassing and then either not get prosecuted or else get off with a slap on the wrist sentence level. I believe strongly in the right to public protest but I am… Read more »
Independently Thinking
Guest
Independently Thinking

Now, joking aside, the quality of this thread is miles above that of the main one.

I could say it is due to Kevin Bonham (another reason perhaps Antony prefers Tasmania to SA) but KB has a few erudite friends on this thread.

Well done all!

Independently Thinking
Guest
Independently Thinking

William @ 8:

As much of an honour it would be to have you in SA for our election coverage, I feel Antony should come to SA for our election.

Surely Antony couldn’t choose Tassie over us?

Tasmania has great forests, hydro power, the Tassie Devil and MONA.

SA has Jay Weatherill and Steven Marshall.

Um, needing a place to stay in Adelaide, William?

scoutdog
Guest

Good post Kevin Bonham

Tom the first and best
Guest
Tom the first and best
23 Peaceful protest means non-violent protest. Sitting a blockading is not violent. The environmentalists are not the ones beating people up in Tasmania, pretty much any violence around these protests comes from the other side. There has to be some ability to protest in a way that actually has an effect rather than just noise making. The Greens are a party of the left but not the extreme left. They are a party of principals of the left such as equality and social justice. In a free society, people are entitled to hold any principals they like. People do not… Read more »
Kevin Bonham
Guest
scoutdog@24 But Kevin why did the Libs contact the Greens to form Govt? Some Libs did sound out some Greens about possible support. The funny thing about that is how long it took to come out (years) because at the time the line from both parties was that the Liberals were not interested. All the same Labor are the ones who actually did the deal they said they would not do; the Liberals may have flirted with breaking their commitments but did not actually do so. I think the mandate situation federally was slightly different because it was reasonable for… Read more »
scoutdog
Guest
MB good post. Well articulated and good summary, I actually have no problem with cable cars and the right Pulp Mill But Kevin why did the Libs contact the Greens to form Govt? The revisionist stuff does not work. Mandate was preached by Abbott re the Carbon Price (tax was a lie) I believe the current arrangement has going ok but Giddings has lost me by copping out now. We as a State need substance not zipping out at the tough time and going for the base debate; the level of discussion should be a lot higher we deserve that.… Read more »
The Whig Party
Guest

Eco-blockades are not “peaceful protest”. They are designed to achieve a desired outcome by force and such people should be treated as the gangsters they are. Remember that the Federal Greens have a member of a notorious Australian Communist family as one of their Senators. Given that fact, they seem a bit too fond of 1970s leftism. It isn’t the seventies anymore.

Kevin Bonham
Guest

scoutdog@18

Kevin – if people voted for that arangement what is wrong with it besides perception?, think they actually worked well together (the Libs actually approached the Greens as well but never admitted it).

It could well be argued that people did not vote for that arrangement and that that is a big part of what is seen as wrong with it. David Bartlett (ALP Premier before Giddings) strongly indicated prior to the election that he would not do deals with the Greens. In mandate terms the deal that was done had the support of Greens voters only.

Psephos
Guest

Good post as always MB.

Aristotle
Guest

William Bowe said:

[Worse – his replacement might be me.]

Couldn’t think of a better person to fill in for Mr. Green.

meher baba
Guest
scoutdog@18 You are correct, the Lab-Green coalition worked well. But the underpinning factor in Tassie politics is the one Psephos has identified: the large majority of the electorate (IMO it’s more like 65-70 per cent rather than 80) who identify any involvement by the Greens in government as creating an impermeable barrier to economic growth and job creation. The basic demographics of this thinking is that it is disproportionately represented among Tasmanians who were born here, are over the age of 50, have no tertiary educational qualifications (and in many instances haven’t completed secondary school) and do not live in… Read more »
scoutdog
Guest
Come on how cynical is the move to seperate from the Greens at this stage. McKim has been a good Minister. To get the forestry agreement up has been a great achievement. If the Pulp Mill had been proposed at another site it would have got up. From here it seems the Liberals are running a good campaign and started a long time ago (at every community event i have been to) while Labor has been fighting internally (sounds a bit like the federal scenario). It is annoying when you believe in the Policys of one party who does not… Read more »
Kevin Bonham
Guest
Wakefield@14 Carey 14 – comment accepted. It just seems bizarre that Greens and Labor are behaving the way they are having been in a coalition that each has supported up to now. Labor knows the coalition is unpopular but also knew all along they would be in trouble at the next election. So they’ve stuck with the coalition to stay in office and ditched it as soon as there is no longer any stability benefit in keeping it. As for the Greens they have to oppose attempts to prop up the pulp mill; their core supporters think they have sold… Read more »
Psephos
Guest

Very smart move by Giddings to end the Coalition and run against the Greens. 20% of Tas voters like the Greens but the other 80% hate them, and this is the best strategy for Labor to get its base vote back in the three regional seats.

Rational Leftist
Guest

[They’ll say they have no confidence in the government but that the motion is pointless when there’s an election coming anyway]

I understand your point and definitely defer to your superior knowledge of Tasmanian politics but isn’t there a case for forcing an early election to show that Giddings has completely lost control of things. One more nail in the coffin, so to speak?

Wakefield
Guest

Carey 14 – comment accepted. It just seems bizarre that Greens and Labor are behaving the way they are having been in a coalition that each has supported up to now.

Actually I suspect Tasmania will see a real minority government in the next few years (probably not after this election) where the largest minority party governs without any “guarantee” of confidence and just accepts that some legislation will be defeated in the lower house. And if a budget is defeated then all options are looked at again.

Rational Leftist
Guest

[Carey at 2. Can you supply any basis for your rumour. It really sounds like mischief making without foundation?]

Kevin Bonham has answered it but I would appreciate it, in future, if you made such requests in a less accusatory tone. I am not in the business of making shit up just to make mischief.

Kevin Bonham
Guest
The main rumour’s valid enough, Kim Booth has explicitly said he will move it and the remaining Greens are considering their position. I think what will happen with the no-confidence motion is that the Libs will just refuse to support the motion to suspend standing orders in order to put it. They’ll say they have no confidence in the government but that the motion is pointless when there’s an election coming anyway. That was the impression I got from Hodgman’s language today. The Libs will look right turkeys if they kill a motion to protect the pulp mill that they… Read more »
Wakefield
Guest

Carey at 2. Can you supply any basis for your rumour. It really sounds like mischief making without foundation?

scoutdog
Guest

Giddings has wimped out by not going with the Green alliance (not that i totally agree with the Greens)but McKim and O’connor were good Ministers and it is fairly weak doing what she has done just before an election

Kevin Bonham
Guest

Actually now being announced as Feb 19 for issuing of writs.

Kevin Bonham
Guest

The plan is to issue writs on 12 Feb which gives PUP nearly a month to get their registration sorted.

Independently Thinking
Guest
Independently Thinking

What a bugger, I hope Antony Green will stick to covering the SA Election and not troop off to Tassie like he did last time .

Boerwar
Guest

Greens conspiring with the reactionaries to undermine a centre-left party?

Tell me it ain’t so, Ma!

Rational Leftist
Guest

That assumes parliament is recalled, I guess. I really don’t know that much about it all, TBH.

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