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Tasmanian Politics

Jan 16, 2014

Tasmanian Premier Lara Giddings has confirmed March 15 as her government’s date with the polls, which for the second successive occasion means a super Saturday on which elections are held in both Tasmania and South Australia. My most recent poll aggregate chart is featured below, encompassing the crudely bias-adjusted results of 14 EMRS and four ReachTEL polls.

UPDATE (17/1): Kevin Bonham and Ben Raue at The Tally Room have typically excellent reviews of the situation, complete with candidate overviews and such. My own overview will appear in Crikey later today.

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Kevin Bonham
Guest

http://kevinbonham.blogspot.com.au/2014/02/libs-reachtel-not-completely-over-line.html

Libs’ ReachTEL: Not Completely Over The Line

An internal ReachTEL the Liberals have released is the first Tasmanian state poll for some time that shows the outcome in any doubt at all.

My Mark Grewar piece has hit the local limelight:

These from ABC:

http://www.abc.net.au/news/2014-02-03/pup-candidate-defended/5235882?section=tas
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2014-02-03/palmer-united-party-defends-state-poll-candidate-over-social-me/5235278

This one from Sally Glaetzer (Mercury) is more in-depth and includes the candidate’s responses/excuses:

http://www.themercury.com.au/news/tasmania/pup-candidate-mark-grewar-in-liberal-party-firing-line/story-fnj4f7k1-1226817089752

Kevin Bonham
Guest

Oh but now it’s back up again at a different URL.

Kevin Bonham
Guest

My candidate guide now has question marks next to eight PUP candidates.

http://kevinbonham.blogspot.com.au/2014/01/2014-tasmanian-state-election-candidate.html

Their names were released in an otherwise unheralded video that a few PUP supporters were linking to on Twitter yesterday. I investigated the background to one of them and found a Google trainwreck suggesting due diligence failure by PUP in selecting this candidate. As the candidate had apparently published anti-gay material, I published his Google trainwreck. The video listing the eight candidates has now been taken down.

Coast
Guest

Strange to think the pulp mill is being revitalised thru such overt political interference on the eve of an election. The last time those actions were applied it forced the resignation of a premier ( Lennon ) and gave the Greens a solid 2010 election result, didn’t it? Is it not a politically poisonous issue for the majors to go anywhere near? I look forward to the release of the next opinion poll whenever that may be.

Roxanna
Guest

Kevin, I completely agree. But I bet it does become an election issue, when the focus should be on other more real and realistic issues. What a waste of time and money this is going to be.

Kevin Bonham
Guest

The pulp mill thing is a joke; anyone who thinks this election should be about building the pulp mill has forfeited the right to call PUP ridiculous.

I’m not opposed to the idea of the mill per se but I am opposed to massive or indeed any government subsidisation of a private project. And I don’t see any evidence that the thing is anywhere near viable on purely private funding at this time. Millions of dollars of state funds have been wasted on this pipe dream already.

Roxanna
Guest

Here we go again.

[MORE than 600 people packed into the Tailrace Centre in Launceston last night for a public forum against the Tamar Valley Pulp Mill.

The full house heard from a panel of anti-pulp mill speakers including Peter McGlone, Lucy Landon-Lane, Vanessa Bleyer and Bass Greens MHA Kim Booth.

Mr Booth said Premier Lara Giddings had let down a community that expected the “blight” of the Tamar Valley pulp mill to be removed.]

http://www.examiner.com.au/story/2040588/both-sides-out-in-force-for-forum/?cs=95

Kevin Bonham
Guest

A mystery today is the candidacy of Barbara Etter for PUP in Denison. Denison is PUP’s worst seat and the best to run as an indie in. Etter’s existing branding is a perfect fit with a Wilkie-style indie bid and a dubious fit with PUP – unless Etter has gone over to PUP’s conspiracy-theory tinfoil-hat brigade.

Mark Duffett
Guest

Cheers Kevin.

Kevin Bonham
Guest
The 19% figure comes from EMRS after they redistribute their rather high undecided rates proportionally. However, past experience is that the Greens’ actual vote never matches these EMRS figures – those flagged by EMRS as undecided do not vote Green. Although EMRS gives Labor as 22 and Green on 19 a more plausible reading of their poll is something like 26.5 to 16 and even that is high-end for the Greens compared to some of their state polling in 2013. Both William and I have aggregates with Labor in high 20s and Greens in mid teens. I went into this… Read more »
Mark Duffett
Guest
meherbaba@19 The basic demographics of this (anti-Green) thinking is that it is disproportionately represented among Tasmanians who were born here, are over the age of 50, have no tertiary educational qualifications (and in many instances haven’t completed secondary school) and do not live in Hobart. For what it’s worth, I am – born in Adelaide – under 50 – have postgraduate qualifications – live in Hobart and generally despise the Greens! So there you go. Does that make me an exceptional person? 😉 But what I actually came here to query was Kate Crowley’s piece in The Conversation today, in… Read more »
Roxanna
Guest

Socrates, what we need in Tasmania is for some young people to stay, and run for Parliament. What we’re being offered is recycled people, like Amos and Llewelyn.
Not all of us are comfortable with the entrenched poverty culture. If culture you can call it.

Socrates
Guest
William Kudos to you for covering the SA election. I hope it is the start of a growing career. MB [In my view the only really viable future for the Tasmanian economy is through the further development of a number of niche primary and tertiary areas: tourism (focusing on bushwalkers, foodies and arty farty types), high quality forest products (ie, timber rather than pulp), lifestyle (eg, high income teleworkers moving here from the mainland), scientific research (Antarctica, etc) and boutique, high quality agriculture (cheese, wine, berries, etc.)] I strongly agree. Tasmania’s economy has been a disaster in the past decade.… Read more »
Kevin Bonham
Guest

New Matilda commissioned me to write a thing about the election which is up on their website.

https://www.newmatilda.com/2014/01/19/tassie-will-be-gimme-libs

Some editing and the title is theirs not mine, eg “have predicted Will Hodgman’s Liberals could win an election” originally read “that had an election been held at the time, Will Hodgman’s Liberals would have won. “

Kevin Bonham
Guest
MagicPudding@35 they can’t seem to convince too many people via normal peaceful protests Obstructive protests are still peaceful. They are also pretty normal; they have been going on for decades. You mean “via protests which do not inconvenience anyone”. Not quite. For instance street marches cause inconvenience to traffic and cause costs to police that then come out of taxpayers’ pockets, but I don’t have a problem with those. Just as I don’t have a problem with the existence of government-funded media. Whether obstructive protests are deemed “peaceful” or not comes down to what context of “peace” is being used… Read more »
Tom the first and best
Guest
Tom the first and best

36

There is a vast distance between leaving a decades old existing wildlife corridor (created for non-environmental reasons) which has significant support, and killing humans which is only supported by the fringe of the fringe of the fringe. There are even more steps in between those two things, the most prominent being converting existing human use land back to wildlife use (not all that radical) to allowing and sometimes even encouraging the world population to decline.

peter cavanagh
Guest

You have missed the most important aspect of a Tasmanian election “family size” if all your family vote for you you are in.

Paul Austin
Guest

MagicPudding: The Green movement is getting more extreme. In Germany, they had the area around the former inner German border turned into a Mother Earth wilderness area simply because it had not been used by humans for years. They plan to do the same in Korea.
It’s only a small step from that to deciding that it’s ok to murder humans to clear the way for the restoration of areas of Mother Earth wilderness.

MagicPudding
Guest
Kevin@30, Mostly love your work, but I have to differ with you on the subject of protests. [they can’t seem to convince too many people via normal peaceful protests] Obstructive protests are still peaceful. They are also pretty normal; they have been going on for decades. You mean “via protests which do not inconvenience anyone”. […and there’s probably a reason for that] Indeed, and you gave it in your preceding sentence, […because it gets more publicity than just a peaceful rally.] A rally would need large numbers to attract national publicity, and even then there is no guarantee of coverage… Read more »
Kevin Bonham
Guest
I have great difficulty ordering my vote for the coming election because all three parties in parliament were fundamentally unpalatable to me at some stage or other. The Liberals when they all opposed abortion law reform and same-sex marriage, Labor and the Greens when they supported an amendment to anti-discrimination law that I viewed as having extremely dangerous implications for political commentary and internet debate. The latter was fixed by the Legislative Council but not before I put a lot of work into putting the case that it was not just right-wingers who had reason to be worried about the… Read more »
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