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Federal Politics 2013-

Jan 21, 2014

Essential Research: 51-49 to Coalition

The ever-reliable Essential Research still has the Coalition with its nose in front on two-party preferred, but down two points on the primary vote. However, expectations for the future of the economy and various other indicators paint a very worrying picture for the government.

Crikey reports that Essential Research, which looks like the only poll we’re getting this week, is once again unchanged on two-party preferred, with the Coalition leading 51-49. However, both parties are down on the primary vote, the Coalition by two points to 43% and Labor by one point to 37%, while the Greens are up one to 9% and the Palmer United Party is steady on 4%. It should be noted that this result compares a two-week average with last week’s debut figures derived from one week of polling only, so a two-point primary vote change from this notoriously stable series is less striking than it would be normally. Also featured are results on asylum seeker policy (broadly favourable to the government) and climate change (51% caused by human activity, 39% part of a normal fluctuation), on which more shortly.

UPDATE: Full Essential report here. Another figure to emerge is a deterioration in perceptions of the state of the economy, with the total good rating down six points since immediately after the election to 34% and poor up one to 26%. Thirty-eight per cent now believe it heading in the right direction, down six, against 33% for the wrong direction, up seven. Respondents were asked whether things would get better or worse under the Coalition government across a range of measures, with remarkable results – large majorities of respondents expecting pretty much everything to get worse, with the singular exception of company profits. The figures are worse across the board for the government than immediately after the election, most remarkably so in relation to unemployment (from a net rating of minus 10% to minus 23%) and cost of living (minus 13% to minus 35%).

On asylum seekers, only 30% believe most are genuine refugees against 47% who believe most are not, and 22% believe the government too tough versus 25% for too soft and 35% for taking the right approach. Fifty-two per cent think recent extreme temperatures likely to be related to climate change, versus 34% who think otherwise.

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1416 comments

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Disasterboy
Guest

category Federal Politics 2014, perhaps?

CTar1
Guest

Reading the comments of the last couple of evenings here makes me think the lunatics are controlling the asylum.

BK
Guest

Good morning Dawn Patrollers.
And herein lies a big problem for such legislation.
http://www.smh.com.au/nsw/legal-eagles-punch-holes-in-mandatory-sentence-plan-20140122-31965.html
Do these doctors really know who they’re asking to show leadership?
http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/push-for-national-summit-on-violence-20140122-3196q.html
Speaking of leadership, how’s this? (Apparently there is a cartoon in the GG on this subject saying business will lead the way – until the next GFC!).
http://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/tony-abbott-tells-davos-let-business-lead-way/story-fn59niix-1226808069849#
The idiot just can’t help himself.
http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/pm-prods-indonesia-over-boat-turnbacks-20140122-31972.html
From the Royal Commission yesterday.
http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/jan/22/royal-commission-church-role-as-facilitator-of-healing-is-questioned
Now the Winter Olympics WILL be worth watching (at times).
http://www.smh.com.au/entertainment/tv-and-radio/hg-nelson-and-rampaging-roy-slaven-sign-with-ten-to-bring-russian-revolution-from-sochi-20140123-hv9hx.html
Alan Moir brings a large-nosed Pyne out for a run.
comment image
Cathy Wilcox on Gallic political values.
http://www.smh.com.au/photogallery/federal-politics/cartoons/cathy-wilcox-20090909-fhd6.html
Pat Campbell doesn’t think Australian politics is too bullish at the moment.
http://www.smh.com.au/photogallery/federal-politics/cartoons/pat-campbell-20120213-1t21q.html
David Rowe – Abbott in Switzerland. (What is Morriscum eating?)
http://www.afr.com/p/national/cartoon_gallery_david_rowe_1g8WHy9urgOIQrWQ0IrkdO

Edwina StJohn
Guest

Stand by for a bombshell announcement tonight!

Henry
Guest

http://news.ninemsn.com.au/national/2014/01/23/05/21/australian-taxpayers-to-foot-newlywed-counselling-bill

I thought this was a joke when it was floated before the election.
So much for the “budget emergency”.

Sigh. That’s what happens I suppose when you have a bunch of fundamentalist opus dei graduate nut jobs running the joint.

Rossmore
Guest

ICJ Hearing: Here’s the video of Oz closing submission … will update when I’ve heard it through…

http://www.icj-cij.org/presscom/view_vod.php?event=20140122_tla&filename=3091587067001

Otiose
Guest

04:11:00 23/01/2014 ——- Nett_NEWS++™ http://bit.ly/1aQcqOy

mexicanbeemer
Guest

Tom it is valid point to call for natural monopolies to be Government owned but i suspect the main reasons why the politicians don’t want to own them is by doing so they become directly responsible for

-Any pricing decisions
-The risk of having events effect the community

We saw this in the 1990s when the state of Victoria removed tram conductors partly as they didn’t want to continuing dealing the union.

The ultimate decision to privatise the PT system occurred after an industrial dispute.

The Pollies use privatising as a means of reducing direct responsibility.

There are some natural monopolies which occur from the private sector and can only be overcome by new entrances to the market which can be difficult hence part of the reason the natural monopoly occurred.

davidwh
Guest

Enjoy John Fess and goodnight.

DisplayName
Guest

Night!

Confessions
Guest

😆

Love you guys.

Goodnight. I’m off to bed with John Grisham.

davidwh
Guest

DN sometimes it hard to know when it’s safe to get between you and ML. You are both good sports but … 😉

DisplayName
Guest

It seems so, confessions :D. I had scheduled my next Tolkien session for next Christmas/New Year but I guess some things won’t wait.

davidwh
Guest

No not that again 🙂

DisplayName
Guest

I must come across prickly, sometimes :P. I thought I was going along with it :).

Confessions
Guest

DN:

Are you doing Tolkien again?

davidwh
Guest

About the Hobbit speak DN?

DisplayName
Guest

confessions, I ran a simulation of an argument in my head and then responded to it here on PB.

DisplayName
Guest

david, I really don’t recall that :P.

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