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Federal Politics 2013-

Jan 23, 2014

BludgerTrack: 52.5.47.5 to Labor

With only one new poll to go on, the weekly BludgerTrack aggregate finds the trend to Labor that kicked in around November still hasn't abated.

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It’s been a disappointing week for poll junkies, with the phone pollsters including Newspoll evidently waiting until after the Australia Day long weekend before ending their New Year hibernation. Since this is an off-week in Morgan’s fortnightly cycle, that just leaves Essential Research. All told, there have only been three poll results published so far this year – two from Essential and one from Morgan – so you’re more than welcome to take BludgerTrack with a bigger-than-usual grain of salt for the time being. For what it’s worth though, the one new data point has driven the Coalition to a new low of 39.3% on the primary vote, and pushed Labor’s two-party lead to a new high of 52.5-47.5.

That might seem counter-intuitive given that the one new poll had the Coalition leading 51-49, but there are three factors which have made it otherwise. First, in adjusting the pollsters for their house biases, a unique approach has been adopted for Essential Research to acknowledge that its bias is in favour of stability, rather than one party or the other. For example, Essential overshot on the Labor vote during the election campaign as momentum swung towards the Coalition, but it’s been doing the opposite since the Coalition started heading south in November. So rather than the usual method of determining bias with reference to past performance in late-campaign polls, I’m plotting a trend of Essential’s deviation from BludgerTrack so its bias adjustments change dynamically over time. With Essential stuck at 51-49 to the Coalition while other pollsters are being fairly unanimous in having Labor leading 52-48, you can pretty much work out for yourself what the Essential bias adjustment currently looks like.

The second point is to do with rounding. While Essential’s two-party result was unchanged this week, the primary vote had the Coalition down two points, Labor down one and the Greens up one. Most of the time that would mean a one-point shift to Labor on two-party preferred, but this is one of those occasions where the shift went missing after the remainders were pared away. However, BludgerTrack doesn’t actually use pollsters’ published two-party results, instead determining primary vote totals and deriving a two-party result from them using 2013 election preferences. So the Essential result looks like a slight shift to Labor compared with last week, so far as BludgerTrack is concerned. The third point is that Essential’s numbers are a two-week rolling average (though last week’s result, being the first from the year, was a sample for that week only), so any change that occurs in a given week is a bigger deal than the published numbers suggest.

So it is that BludgerTrack gives Labor a 0.5% gain on the two-party preferred projection and a boost of three on its seat tally. The state relativities haven’t changed much since last week, so the Labor seat gains are evenly spread, with one each provided by Victoria, South Australia and Tasmania. Full results as always on the sidebar.

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2463 comments

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CTar1
Guest

ESJ

[Stand by for a bombshell announcement tonight !]

That’s 4 days ago …

don
Guest

Another brainfart from the LNP:

http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/focus-on-young-jobless-in-abbott-governments-enhanced-work-for-the-dole-20140127-31hts.html

[ The ACTU has lashed the federal government for planning an “enhanced” work-for-the-dole program, warning Holden workers facing the loss of their job could end up picking garbage.

The peak union body’s president, Ged Kearney, said the plan to expand the work program for unemployed people would not necessarily provide pathway back into the workforce.

The Coalition government is looking to start its ”enhanced” work-for-the-dole program in the next financial year, with a focus on young unemployed Australians.
]

Puff, the Magic Dragon.
Guest
Puff, the Magic Dragon.

[
But we found the study participants tended to be more rational and ‘colder’ in their problem-solving when using their second language — in this case English.”

The study backs up the findings of a 2012 University of Chicago study which also found that using a foreign language reduces decision-making bias.

“We propose that these effects arise because a foreign language provides greater cognitive and emotional distance than a native tongue does,” said the authors of that study.
]
http://www.thelocal.es/20140108/people-are-more-logical-in-a-second-language

Puff, the Magic Dragon.
Guest
Puff, the Magic Dragon.
Another Coalition brain-fart. http://www.abc.net.au/news/2014-01-27/govt-forges-ahead-with-work-for-the-dole-plans/5220304 Aged Care facilities are mostly profit-making enterprises (even the church ones, in their own way). Free gardening, maintenance and painting services being donated forcibly by Newstart recipients is not appropriate. If the facilities want these services, they should pay full commercial rates for them, like any other business. This is another scheme which will cause much more in administration plus red and green tape than the dubious benefits gained, other than buying a few middle class votes. Though I suppose the dole-bludgers can use the litter pickup days to case houses for later break-ins, or spot… Read more »
Puff, the Magic Dragon.
Guest
Puff, the Magic Dragon.

‘Outage’ is a clumsy Americanism. The correct term in Australia is ‘black-out’.
How the hell do you get a noun from the word ‘out’ by putting ‘age on the end? Ludicrous!

don
Guest

testing

Psephos
Guest

Was there a five-hour outage?

daretotread
Guest

Julie Bishop’s clothes are highly professional, but very very expensive.

They certainly do not offend BUT there is something a bit too stiff about them.

Catalyst
Guest

If all we have to talk about are ‘style wars’ would someone like to comment on the professionalism or not, of our current foreign Ministers outfits?

briefly
Guest

[2291….Fran Barlow]

Yes, patterning makes for beauty, too. How lucky we are to notice and enjoy them.

Just Me
Guest

Just to be clear, I don’t want to in any way stop people from being able to discuss the Rudd-Gillard thing on PB, to death if they so wish.

Just want them to stop cluttering up the main active discussion with what I see as an increasingly repetitive discussion about an increasingly irrelevant historical issue.

I have my views on that issue, and have made them known in the past here. But by any practical standard deposing (or at least, neutering) Abbott and the hard right is without doubt the main political game now.

daretotread
Guest
frednk
Guest

Ooops sorry for posting without editing.
[
bemused
Posted Sunday, January 26, 2014 at 2:44 pm | Permalink

..

My wife likes the colourful scarfs and I do think they look good.
]
Talking about scarfs, I probable shouldn’t point this out, but boy some of the Muslim women look good in their scarves. It would be something if that was a fashion that caught on in the west. Really screw with a bogan’s mind.

Diogenes
Guest

P1

[When more of your life is behind you than ahead of you, it naturally seems more important to rewrite history than to change the future.

Best just leave them to it – time is both a necessary and sufficient remedy for such nonsense.]

True. It’s also that the more time and effort people have spent on something, the more it is their identity. Anything that criticises that persons party/cult/faction etc is perceived as a personal assault and so there is endless repairs to and defence of the fantasy castle the person lives in.

mexicanbeemer
Guest

Both Anna Blight and Tanya P always dress very well, i suspect they wear what they are comfortable in, clothing needs to suit the person’s personality.

frednk
Guest
bemused Posted Sunday, January 26, 2014 at 2:44 pm | Permalink frednk@2445 daretotread Posted Sunday, January 26, 2014 at 2:35 pm | Permalink .. Now Anna Bligh did get it right pretty much always. It took Gillard until January 2013 to get it right. It was a bit too late by then That is why there is a lot to be said for polar neck jumpers and pearls. Your allowed to wear the same pearls. A collection of plain polar neck jumer serves the same purpose as a colleciton of ties. Perhaps plain pants suits with plain blouses (much like… Read more »
bemused
Guest
frednk@2445 daretotread Posted Sunday, January 26, 2014 at 2:35 pm | Permalink .. Now Anna Bligh did get it right pretty much always. It took Gillard until January 2013 to get it right. It was a bit too late by then That is why there is a lot to be said for polar neck jumpers and pearls. Your allowed to wear the same pearls. A collection of plain polar neck jumer serves the same purpose as a colleciton of ties. Perhaps plain pants suits with plain blouses (much like men’s suits and shirts) with a colourful scarf to add a… Read more »
frednk
Guest

[daretotread
Posted Sunday, January 26, 2014 at 2:35 pm | Permalink

..

Now Anna Bligh did get it right pretty much always. It took Gillard until January 2013 to get it right. It was a bit too late by then]

That is why there is a lot to be said for polar neck jumpers and pearls.

Your allowed to wear the same pearls. A collection of plain polar neck jumer serves the same purpose as a colleciton of ties.

mexicanbeemer
Guest

If Merit Andrews is serious about reducing welfare spending he first needs an economic policy.

There is nothing wrong with reviewing the welfare sector as long as it is fair-dinkum.

Australia currently has a soft employment market which indicates the focus needs to be on the economic policy.

If the economy was booming and full-employment had been achieved then you could look further into increasing workforce capacity.

Clearly Merit Andrews has no recruitment or hiring experience.

bemused
Guest

frednk@2436


Take a look an Penny Wong, always immaculately dressed and dressed for the role.

You are dead right about Penny.

IIRC Tanya Plibersek is always pretty well dressed too. But I also recall her showing a little cleavage.

Hey, it doesn’t really matter. I think you are making far too much of that issue although I do agree that excessive displays are inappropriate.

Bar Bar
Guest

Abbott at the beach – is result of his long time volunteer work as a surf life saver. All the surf lifesavers I’ve ever seen wear speedos. ie Abbott is being authentic.

Julia’s image problem was that it was entirely inauthentic – Julia Gillard admiring John Howard? Pulease.

Julia’s staff was mainly women at the time, or so I understand, and had been with her right through government and some of them back in opposition.

It would have been the culture. Unfortunately it went backwards after McTernan as brought out on that 457.

daretotread
Guest
The issue of clothing is one area where women are at a serious disadvantage compared with men. Now for a guy if he has had a late night, been sick, had a row with the wife,had a sleep over with a “friend”, or is stressed about a matter of state, he gets out of bed, showers, drags a suit from the cupboard and one of his 15 blue or white shirt and a tie any tie, will do. Finds his black shoes, runs a combe through his hair and hey presto, no one will notice he is not 100%. He… Read more »
frednk
Guest

[
AussieAchmed
Posted Sunday, January 26, 2014 at 2:18 pm | Permalink

But isn’t Tone already married?

comment image
]
Be honest, don’t you feel a little bit sorry for the guy; it’s so dam hard not to look when the opportunity presents itself.

That is why I absolutely hold the view, if you want to be taken seriously don’t present yourself with you lungs hanging out. If you want to dress like that, go to the beach, not the office.

bemused
Guest

zoomster@2435

bemused

yes, I know – it’s silly to ask dtt to back up anything she says with actual proof.

You would probably just reject any proof offered and it would resolve into an endless quest to satisfy you.

Most people have better things to do.

mexicanbeemer
Guest

frednk

That is a valid point about dressing for the role, although Gillard did for the most part dress professionally.

Strong UnionsStrongCountry
Guest
Strong UnionsStrongCountry

comment image

frednk
Guest
[ daretotread Posted Sunday, January 26, 2014 at 2:09 pm | Permalink … Are any of the same people now in Shorten’s Office and if so what can be done to make sure that similar wrong keys are not struck. ] It’s as if the Gillard men went and joined Abbott’s office. It’s Abbott that is running around in togs. But at least he does it at the beach. The problem was that Gillard was the first female prime minister. Like it or not, men dress for their different roles. Suits have a purpose. People, male and female are used… Read more »
zoomster
Guest

bemused

yes, I know – it’s silly to ask dtt to back up anything she says with actual proof.

Puff, the Magic Dragon.
Guest
Puff, the Magic Dragon.

So we are down to critising our first female PM because she showed too much/not enough tit?

Wow. Classy.

castle
Guest

[If only Senator FierravantiWells’ desired policy had been in place 50 years ago, we might never have heard of/from her.]

She has a point, look how distressed Howard was from the number of asian faces he saw in the streets of Oz.

The LNP could probably go that one extra step for Howie and offer subsidised rebates under medicare for whitening of the skin and de-asianisation of the eyes.

Bugler
Guest

Diogenes,

I read the preamble/description and because you can’t share your votes this time it’s harder for them to get the votes to collate them, so have a smaller sample size. Rip Tide may get it, I’m just not mad keen on the song as it’s been played so much on the commercial station which I often have to listen to at work.

bemused
Guest

zoomster@2423

Right, as I thought – dtt can’t provide a single example (except the usual stuff about hearing it somewhere) to support her contention.

Or maybe, like others, she can’t be bothered playing your silly games. 😐

Strong UnionsStrongCountry
Guest
Strong UnionsStrongCountry

This article examines Kevin Andrews’ claims of an unsustainable level of welfare spending as an argument for crackdowns on Disability Support Pension and dole payments and finds them generally wanting.
==================================================

But $4 billion a year to mainly foreign owned mining companies is?

bemused
Guest

daretotread@2421

Just me

I will try your idea but I rather suspect it is a laptop issue, as it happens when I am using word. – Actually have not been using word recently, just heaps of excel so will test it out.

You mean a hardware issue?

Or do you mean software problems?

Adobe Flash used to cause me a lot of grief with my browser. Until I got rid of it.

confessions
Guest

From twitter:

[If only Senator FierravantiWells’ desired policy had been in place 50 years ago, we might never have heard of/from her.]

Strong UnionsStrongCountry
Guest
Strong UnionsStrongCountry

frednk

Posted Sunday, January 26, 2014 at 1:59 pm | Permalink

confessions
Posted Sunday, January 26, 2014 at 1:52 pm | Permalink

davidwh:

Chest hair on men is seriously over-rated. Trust me.

And so is cleavage. If you want to see a womens tits you marry her.
=============================================
But isn’t Tone already married?

comment image

bemused
Guest
frednk@2420 bemused Posted Sunday, January 26, 2014 at 2:03 pm | Permalink frednk@2406 confessions Posted Sunday, January 26, 2014 at 1:52 pm | Permalink davidwh: Chest hair on men is seriously over-rated. Trust me. And so is cleavage. If you want to see a womens tits you marry her. Rather an old fashioned point of view. Haven’t been to a beach in the last 5 decades or so? Fare enough, but I don’t expect, and to date havn’t seen swim gear in the office. But I am prepared to bet you have seen cleavage in the office. 😀
zoomster
Guest

KB

don’t know if you caught my post yesterday thanking you for that piece, which I’ve distributed widely.

Pspehs are getting to be a dime a dozen (sorry, William)– good analysis of policy in plain language is a rare beast indeed.

So thank you.

confessions
Guest

They now do a welcome to country ahead of the national anthems for the cricket. Entirely appropriate in my view, and nice to see.

zoomster
Guest

Right, as I thought – dtt can’t provide a single example (except the usual stuff about hearing it somewhere) to support her contention.

Diogenes
Guest

Bugler

[Not particularly accurate ATM. If Daft Punk doesn’t get a song in the top 10 I’d be extremely surprised. If Vance Joy get no. 1 for Rip Tide I quit. (Not that I think they’ll pull off a “Thrift Shop” (an alright song played to death by commercial stations))]

They got Thrift Shop as the number 1 last year.

daretotread
Guest

Just me

I will try your idea but I rather suspect it is a laptop issue, as it happens when I am using word. – Actually have not been using word recently, just heaps of excel so will test it out.

frednk
Guest
[ bemused Posted Sunday, January 26, 2014 at 2:03 pm | Permalink frednk@2406 confessions Posted Sunday, January 26, 2014 at 1:52 pm | Permalink davidwh: Chest hair on men is seriously over-rated. Trust me. And so is cleavage. If you want to see a womens tits you marry her. Rather an old fashioned point of view. Haven’t been to a beach in the last 5 decades or so? ] Fare enough, but I don’t expect, and to date havn’t seen swim gear in the office.
Kevin Bonham
Guest

Final intended spam post for:

http://kevinbonham.blogspot.com.au/2014/01/andrews-phantom-welfare-spending-crisis.html

Andrews’ Phantom Welfare Spending Crisis

This article examines Kevin Andrews’ claims of an unsustainable level of welfare spending as an argument for crackdowns on Disability Support Pension and dole payments and finds them generally wanting.

daretotread
Guest
Fred I appreciate your comments because they are a rational look at some things that went wrong for Julia Gillard and which were not the fault of the devil from Qld. It seems to me that there was something missing in the media room in her office. Something or someone just hit the notes slightly off key. It was not by much but it still mattered. The two WW articles were the most clear evidence of this, along with “Moving Forward” etc Now I really DO think it is time to move on so the ONLY relevant question is: Are… Read more »
fiona
Guest

Boerwar @ 2410,

Thank you for your story. Much food for thought there.

confessions
Guest

[Yes there is. He is KNOWN to have been amongst those who opposed work choices.]

His opposition to workchoices only became ‘known’ once he was leader and needed to downplay his connection to the Howard years. This ‘fact’ was presented to us by a Murdoch journalist.

If there are any public statements by Abbott at the time of Workchoices stating his opposition to WC, I imagine we’d have learned about it all long before we did.

Just Me
Guest

[When war mongers nominate a date at which a war ends, ’1945′ for World War Two, just keep in mind that they are making stuff up. All that 1945 means is that the shooting stopped. But that War is still causing suffering. It is still shortening lives. That War is alive in many, many people today. As are all the other wars since then.]

The consequences of WW2 still echo loudly and painfully through the living in my family.

bemused
Guest

Just Me@2409

DTT

Do your drafting in a separate text file using your favourite word processing program, not in the forum comments box.

Then just copy and paste the finished comment into the forum box and hit enter.

Also protects you against losing a draft because of any forum software gremlins.

Good idea.

I have toyed with doing it on occasions when PB was playing up, but it always came good before I got around to it.

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