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Federal Politics 2013-

Jan 27, 2014

ReachTEL: 53-47 to Labor

The monthly ReachTEL poll for the Seven Network gives Labor its biggest post-election lead to date, the slow-moving Essential Research also ticks a point in Labor's favour, and Morgan records little change.

UPDATE (Essential and Morgan): The fortnightly Morgan multi-mode poll, conducted over the past two weekends from a sample of 3019 by face-to-face and SMS, shows little change on the primary vote, with the Coalition up half a point to 39.5%, Labor down one to 37%, the Greens up one to 11.5% and the Palmer United Party down half a point to 3%. Labor’s lead is up half a point on the headline respondent-allocated two-party preferred measure, from 52.5-47.5 to 53-47, but the precise opposite happens on the previous election preferences measure. Today’s Essential Research moves a point in Labor’s favour on two-party preferred, which is now at 50-50. Both major parties are down a point on the primary vote, the Coalition to 42% and Labor to 36%, with the Greens and the Palmer United Party steady on 9% and 4%. See bottom of post for further details.

GhostWhoVotes relates that the latest monthly ReachTEL automated phone poll conducted for the Seven Network gives Labor its biggest post-election lead to date, up to 53-47 from 52-48 in the December 15 poll. Primary votes are Coalition 39.8%, down from 41.4%; Labor 40.6%, up from 40.4%; and Greens 9.1%, up from 8.7%. The poll also has 20.3% reporting being better off since a year ago compared with 39.3% for worse off and 40.4% for neither. Prospectively, 23.5% expect to be better off in a year, 39.4% worse off and 37.1% neither. On the economy as a whole, 34.9% think it headed in the right direction and 39.3% in the wrong direction, with 25.8% undecided. A very similar question from Essential Research last week had 38% rating the economy as heading in the right direction versus 33% for the wrong direction, which while better than the ReachTEL results was a substantial deterioration on post-election findings which had it at 44% and 27%. These figures here courtesy of Ryan Moore on Twitter.

The poll was conducted on Thursday from a sample of 3547. Full results will be available on the ReachTEL site tomorrow, which will apparently include personal ratings that have Tony Abbott up and Bill Shorten down. Stay tuned tomorrow for the weekly Essential Research and fortnightly Morgan.

UPDATE (Essential Research): Crikey reports Essential Research has moved a point in Labor’s favour on two-party preferred, which is now at 50-50. Both major parties are down a point on the primary vote, the Coalition to 42% and Labor to 36%, with the Greens and the Palmer United Party steady on 9% and 4%. Also featured: privatisation deemed a bad idea by 59%, including 69% for Australia Post and 64% for the ABC and SBS; 24% think we spend too much on welfare, 41% too little and 27% about right; 64% believe the age pension too low, but only 27% think the same about unemployment benefits; 78% believe alcohol-related violence is getting worse, and perhaps also everything they see in the news media; “87% support harsher mandatory sentences for alcohol-related assaults; over 60% support earlier closing times for bottle shops, pubs and clubs; 76% support lockouts and 59% support lifting the age at which you can buy alcohol”. UPDATE: Full report here.

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2159 comments

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mari
Guest

https://twitter.com/arveed/status/429016838412832768/photo/1

Yes very selective is Tony Abbott memory

ShowsOn
Guest

LOL TURNBULL CALLS ABBOTT A MORON!

bemused
Guest

Psephos@2134

these people gave their lives in s foreign country for freedom….no monuments for them


There is a memorial near Lake Burley Griffin in Canberra to all the Australians who fought in the Spanish Civil War, on which they are all named.

Correct except for the names being on it.

When last in Canberra, I deliberately sought out this monument and had a good look. I was disappointed that it did not list the names as I had known a Spanish Civil War veteran and wanted to see his name listed.

frednk
Guest

[Unitary State
Posted Wednesday, January 29, 2014 at 9:58 pm | Permalink

Just a few hours ago, the smh poll had 76% dissagreeing with what Abbott had to say about the ABC.

Now it is 61% who agree with him.

WHAT THE HELL WENT ON THERE.
]
Write a program to vote, delete the cookie and vote again. It really is quite simple. Why any one would bother is the issue.

Otiose
Guest

04:26:00 30/01/2014 ——- Nett_NEWS++™ http://bit.ly/1aQcqOy

absolutetwaddle
Guest

I haven’t read that since I was a teenager, it’s about time for a re-read.

Maybe after I finish The Spanish Holocaust, which this conversation inspired me to download.

Psephos
Guest

[I am well aware of the pernicious influence of Stalinism on the Republican side but believe there was a brief window where it was possible merely to defend the republic without being used as a pawn by the Comintern. ]

The key text here, as I’m sure you know, is Orwell’s “Homage to Catalonia.”

absolutetwaddle
Guest

Psephos

I am well aware of the pernicious influence of Stalinism on the Republican side but believe there was a brief window where it was possible merely to defend the republic without being used as a pawn by the Comintern.

But yes, near the end it took on all the characteristics of a Hegelian tragedy.

lyndajcla
Guest

I guess your right psephos…great movements have created horrors that weren’t envisaged at the start.. when it all seemed clear..
I’d rather be hopeful though of course people fuck stuff up….sadly so

Psephos
Guest

I broadly agree with both 2147 and 2148, but we should not overly romanticise the other side. The International Brigades were organised by the Comintern and served the propaganda purposes of Stalin’s regime. Republican Spain rapidly degenerated into a colony of Stalin’s Soviet Union, complete with secret police, purges and executions. Andres Nin, the leader of the Trotskyist POUM, for example, was murdered by the NKVD. By 1939 there wasn’t much to choose between the two sides.

absolutetwaddle
Guest

It was an unspeakably ugly conflict and I cannot help but marvel at the conviction and bravery of those that chose to stand against mechanised fascism in such a way. It boggles the mind.

lyndajcla
Guest

I think this is really interesting and largely unknown history to many…Chrissie Pyne may not like it but it speaks of a time when people had empathy for one another and fought for it with their lives…they died because they knew it was important to do so…people who cared about working people’s lives…only unions gave us z better life….if they are destroyed then so are we…

absolutetwaddle
Guest

Psephos

Good!

Psephos
Guest

[I figure given the militancy if the time at least a few Aussies ended up there on the side of fascism.]

Not that I’ve ever heard, and I read most of the material on Australian involvement in Spain while I was researching my thesis.

absolutetwaddle
Guest

I asked because I remember an awkward conversation with my late, earnestly Catholic grandfather in which he recalled a strong desire to join the Nationlist forces in Spain. He ended up somehow donating a large sum if money to the effort instead.

Yeah.:/

I figure given the militancy if the time at least a few Aussies ended up there on the side of fascism.

Psephos
Guest

I may be wrong in saying that the names of the Australian volunteers are listed on the memorial. None of the photos I’ve looked at online shows names.

Psephos
Guest

[I note you said ‘all’ twice. I take it this means the Nationalists and Republicans are listed together?]

So far as I know, no Australians served with the Francoist forces. There was no international volunteer force comparable to the International Brigades serving on the Francoist side, although there were some individual fascists from other countries who volunteered. Franco of course had a large Italian Army force and a German Luftwaffe unit, the Condor Legion, serving with him.

Tom the first and best
Guest
Tom the first and best

2139

Follow the link in 2137 and read the inscription. A distinctly republican memorial (which is good).

lyndajcla
Guest

Thanks pseph…I travelled to Canberra to show my girl the Parliament… stopped along the way and never saw it… glad though…many Australians fought and its mostly forgotten. They lived their beliefs and died without fanfare..
It would fitting to document and show it to people on the telly….ordinary but extraordinary people…

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