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Essential Research: 50-50

Still no sign of Newspoll, but the ever-reliable Essential Research still has a two-party deadlock, and offers responses on Peter Cosgrove, unions, parental leave and intolerance.

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Essential Research has two-party preferred at 50-50, with both major parties up on the primary vote: the Coalition by a point to 43%, Labor by two to 38%. The Greens are down a point to 8%, the Palmer United Party down one to 3% and others down to two to 7%. Also covered:

• Only 4% rate Peter Cosgrove “not a good choice” for Governor-General, with 30%, 34% and 11% respectively rating the choice excellent, good and acceptable.

• Forty-three per cent are happy for the Governor-General to be appointed by the government, with 40% favouring direct election.

• Sixty-one per cent think unions “important for Australian working people today”, compared with only 30% who think them not important, with 45% thinking workers would be better off if unions were stronger compared with 27% for worse off.

• In response to a question which first explains the specifics of the government’s policy, including the $150,000 ceiling and 1.5% levy, only 23% favoured the government scheme over 36% for the current policy and 32% for neither.

• There are also questions on the prevalence on various forms of intolerance, which you can read about in the report.

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875 comments

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Schnappi
Guest

Who trains these AFP Clowns ???

Bridie Jabour ‏@bkjabour 2h
Woah, senior government minister rang Ch7 to apologise for AFP raid via @SharriMarkson http://www.theaustralian.com.au/media/government-sorry-for-raid-on-seven-over-corby-deal/story-e6frg996-1226830302172

Henry
Guest

Great resource there otiose. I enjoy perusing that each morning; impressive.

I hope it is now open slather for labor mp’s to call Abbott a liar. Get the meme happening and hammer him.
If he squeals they can just refer to Sharman Stone’s comments wrrt “we are merely agreeing with the member for Goulburn” (or whatever her electorate is called).

Otiose
Guest

04:57:00 06/02/2014 —- Nett_NEWS++™ http://bit.ly/1aQcqOy #auspol

zoidlord
Guest

@Carey/870

If you don’t want to talk about bleak, then don’t on about how things are better than it was (when for the most part) they are not.

Simple fact is the discussions now and previously are effecting Australia economy, including trash talking by the liberals.

Rational Leftist
Guest
I didn’t say the current economic position of the state was good. I just said the long-term outlook is not that bleak. There are plenty of avenues of investment, both from government and the private sector. You want to talk bleak, go back to 2002. Everybody was leaving the state in droves and Adelaide was only good as a nice quiet place for the grandparents to retire to. The city was dead. Shops were always closed and there was no real drive to grow. It was on track to oblivion and it was considered a joke to invest any money… Read more »
zoidlord
Guest

@Carey/868

Unemployment is 6.8% for SA (as of December 2013).

It only took a month to change these from 6.6% (November 2013).

& Look at that, Abbott on Holden:

http://www.theaustralian.com.au/news/prime-minister-tony-abbott-keeps-sa-waiting-for-holden-response/story-e6frg6n6-1226819090232

(in time for local election).

Rational Leftist
Guest

[With what money and what jobs?

Bit late I suspect, sad to say.]

I don’t know. I am not advocating their policies.

And there are plenty of avenues for economic growth in SA. The long-term outlook is not that bleak (it was much bleaker in 2002, when the ALP came into power.)

zoidlord
Guest

@Carey/865

With what money and what jobs?

Bit late I suspect, sad to say.

Tom the first and best
Guest
Tom the first and best
864 The Coalition certainly ran the est campaign of the 2010 Victorian Election. They seemed to get the issues, like public transport. It has since emerged that they do not get public transport and instead are trying to ramrod the East-West Link through. They also have been a bit of a mess with leadership and Shaw. I think the Coalition will loose but not in a landslide. I also think that, if the Coalition do get the East-West Link contract signed before the state election (likely), the Greens will take inner-city seats off the ALP because the ALP say they… Read more »
Rational Leftist
Guest

[Liberals don’t do minimal policies imho.]

I meant you are not going to hear many policy announcements from them.

The only ones that have stuck out (besides the vague “I’m going to wave my magic business wand and the economy is going to grow” statements) have been promises to build small, local things to buy votes in marginals (in particular, Adelaide, where the Lib MP is struggling, despite the overall swing to the Libs everywhere else.)

Rational Leftist
Guest
[Other than VIC none of those disposed of, or to be disposed of, Labor governments should be surprised that they were disposed of. There were some pretty ordinary performances in those given their marching orders.] I’d go as far to say that the Victorian one wasn’t that big of a surprise either. The Vic ALP ran a very lazy campaign and paid for it. It didn’t help that I had friends in the Vic ALP who were basically gloating that Victoria won’t flip because of how “progressive” Victoria is – and they’re still using that rationale now to already claim… Read more »
zoidlord
Guest

@Carey/862

Liberals don’t do minimal policies imho.

Rational Leftist
Guest
[Wasn’t SA Labor returned within a hair’s breath last time? It’s seemed to me for a while now that the govt will change hands in SA, esp since the Liberals dumped Redmond. I’m not getting this seeming expectation that Weatherill’s govt will be returned, if only it weren’t for X this and Y that from the factional numpties.] Well the odds have always favoured a Liberal win in March, just how much the balance of probability favoured them is what has oscillated. Until December last year, I’d have given the Liberals a 75% chance of winning at most. Then, after… Read more »
zoidlord
Guest

Something else to to worry about if Liberals gain power in SA:

http://www.adelaidenow.com.au/news/south-australia/more-than-10000-households-to-share-in-6-million-compensation-for-blackouts-after-wild-storms-in-adelaide/story-fni6uo1m-1226819009299

& Something that Labor has failed to invest in properly.

& is now costing $6 million in compo.

WeWantPaul
Guest

[ Abbott is a moron and Howard wasn’t good enough to have gone with one either.]

remember Reith and the waterfront. The unions didn’t declare these wars, Howard and Abbott did. they are Hitler in this context just not as intelligent, reasonable or well loved as he was.

deblonay
Guest

In the next few days watch Abbott and Hockey make capital out of Traitor Howes mad statements
they must see him as heaven sent !

WeWantPaul
Guest

[Howes made some good points]

Nothing at all to do with not towing the Labor line, his comments are moronic in the contest of an Abbott Government who hates unions, hates workers and hates their getting paid a decent wage. Abbott has already declared war, and in that context Howes can only be an idiot or a surrender to Abbott.

Reasonable sensible non confrontational outcomes, dare I say an accord mark II would work with a good sensible PM, Abbott is a moron and Howard wasn’t good enough to have gone with one either.

davidwh
Guest

Making so e very valid points.

davidwh
Guest

Howes is on 7.30 here now.

confessions
Guest

davidwh:

I’m guessing the victim of timing excuse is a popular one in Howes-Land.

confessions
Guest
COAG issues its time-honoured dingo howl at the moon. [ The state and federal governments have been urged to embark on a new five-year plan to harmonise business and industry regulation. The COAG Reform Council made the call on Thursday, releasing its final report to the Council of Australian Governments on the success of the “seamless national economy” program over the past five years.] http://au.news.yahoo.com/thewest/national/a/21289221/call-for-coag-to-set-new-reform-agenda/ Every COAG for longer than I’ve been alive has been calling for ‘a new reform agenda’, with ‘seamless’ integration between business and industry regulation. Clearly we need more polling for the press gallery to wrap… Read more »
zoidlord
Guest

Galaxy Poll last time for South Australia had 54/46, but Holden effects (and now SPC) will effect the state.

And only a 7% point difference in regards to better economic plans.

davidwh
Guest

Fess I agree his timing was pretty ordinary but perhaps he has had this address planned for some time and therefore he was as much a victim of timing as he was guilty of timing.

deblonay
Guest

Howes is a Quisling
__________________
An old WW2 word to describe traitors applies to Howes,for just as the presure mounts on Abbott he will quote Howes in the debate

Thetalk-backs ran hot today over talk of cuts in award poayments and
penalties…now Howes comes to the aid of Abbott
what a bastard !!

What sort of Labor Man is he ???
The answer is …a right-wing NSW union leader…they don’t come much worse than that

confessions
Guest

davidwh:

Howes isn’t ‘copping it’ from me because of some pluralism in IR nonsense, but because he has a track record of putting his foot in it just when the labour movement doesn’t need it.

I’ll try to catch the transcript of his speech, but am ambivalent because frankly I’ve heard it all before from him and his ilk.

zoidlord
Guest

@davidwh/844

Howes abit like Abbott & Co, Words fail – Actions don’t.

And what direction you take that Action also depends on your success of the said words/action.

davidwh
Guest

Fess if you get a chance it’s worth the time to read the transcript of his address. Overall it was both frank and balanced. Trouble is he seems to be now copping it from all sides which is an indication that pluralism in IR is pretty much dead in the water at a national level.

deblonay
Guest

Buglar
Colac never was or is now a fruit growing area I lived there for some years…it’s cows and spuds and that is it

The Yarra Valley is still a major area for berry crops and some fresh summer fruit

confessions
Guest

[Why shouldn’t we have open and frank community discussions about all issues regardless of their controversy?]

Did Howes say something genuinely controversial, or just his usual of genuinely smug and stupid?

I’m all up for frank discussions that contribute meaningfully, but past experience suggests we aren’t going to get that from the likes of Paul Howes.

confessions
Guest

I haven’t seen Howes, either at the NPC or on 730, so can’t comment on his performances on either.

Personally I think he represents everything Labor should eschew. The cocky, smug superiority he oozes is best left with the Greens, who wear that shit well with the types of voters that party targets and represents.

Just for once I’d love to see Howes knock one out of the park for the ALP, but he consistently fails.

davidwh
Guest

Howes made some good points but he failed to hold the party line so he has to pay the price. And that pretty well describes what is wrong in politics these days. Stick your head up and make suggestions not in line with current idealogy and you get smashed.

Why shouldn’t we have open and frank community discussions about all issues regardless of their controversy?

davidwh
Guest

Other than VIC none of those disposed of, or to be disposed of, Labor governments should be surprised that they were disposed of. There were some pretty ordinary performances in those given their marching orders.

Lynchpin
Guest

There is quite a bit of Howes bashing on here tonight. I saw 7:30 and i thought he was very impressive.

davidwh
Guest

I have absolute faith in TAPM that he will preform down to my expectations. So far he hasn’t surprised me on the upside.

lefty e
Guest

ACT excepted, it looks like wall to wall LNP governments from March till November – when the Napthine government falls in VIC.

I suppose one cant be 100% certain about SA, but I dont fancy their chances with the Don Farrell poison of the last week.

Honestly, youve just got to turf these warlords out of your party, ALP, and smash their power bases to a pulp. No good comes of them, only ill.

pedant
Guest

Carey Moore @ 836: And entirely predictable. Senator Farrell should be despatched from public life not because he’s a shoppie, or a faceless man, or a Catholic; but just because he’s a damn fool.

zoidlord
Guest

@Carey/836

Not sure why would people vote for the SA Liberal clowns after Holden fiasco now SPC fiasco?

Attack ads about Job losses only go so far as fear driven.

Inregarding your quote line, I think it’s also an attack ad against Federal Coalition Party.

“While the state is losing jobs, they’re protecting theirs”

Does it mention Labor at all? Or is it General?

With Victoria / South Australia loosing jobs, on the bases of Federal Coalition Party, I think it’s more of a general attack.

confessions
Guest

Carey:

Wasn’t SA Labor returned within a hair’s breath last time? It’s seemed to me for a while now that the govt will change hands in SA, esp since the Liberals dumped Redmond.

I’m not getting this seeming expectation that Weatherill’s govt will be returned, if only it weren’t for X this and Y that from the factional numpties.

Rational Leftist
Guest
There’s (predictably) a new SA Liberal attack ad on TV now (the usual sort with the black and white, and the blokey voice etc.) about last week’s fiasco. The most interesting part I observed was the “While the state is losing jobs, they’re protecting theirs” line. While, on the surface, it seems like a criticism of priorities, it is also a sneaky way to imply it’s the cause of job losses. If that point sinks in, you can guarantee the state government will get full blame for job losses – even those that are due to federal cuts. I hate… Read more »
confessions
Guest

Parliament resumes next week. What will the press gallery write about leading into next week if they don’t have polling to obsess over?

Asha Leu
Guest

Any polls besides Essential expected this week? I’m jonesing for my fix.

Asha Leu
Guest

@Kevin Bonham 823

[Clive Palmer has claimed to have “internal polling” showing PUP will win the Tasmanian state election. I’ve debunked it here and also pointed to the history of false internal polling claimed by PUP before the federal election:

http://kevinbonham.blogspot.com.au/2014/02/pups-internal-polling-claims-are.htm%5D

Considering that he also claimed that PUP would win the 2013 election and that whatshisname Bjelke-Peterson (the grandson, not Joh back from the grave) would easily win the south-Queensland seat they had endorsed him for, I’m inclined to take Clive’s internal polling with a grain of salt.

bemused
Guest
deblonay@748 Ellis makes a good point……… Re Ian Thorphe he says that forcing young kids barely of school, age to a decade or more of the daily grind of work needed to make them successful in the harsh world of competitive swimming…. is little short of child abus Not sure about that. I submitted to a lot of that sort of grind because I wanted to. Swimming before and after school 5 or 6 days a week and then competition each weekend. I was never even close to the Thorpe league, but I had a lot of company with other… Read more »
Laocoon
Guest

Not sure if this has been posted here before (and I have not used it myself) but…. 😀

http://stoptonymeow.com/

confessions
Guest

[Julie Bishop ‏@JulieBishopMP 6h
Discussing opportunities for women in business and public life at a roundtable in Port Moresby. pic.twitter.com/YxHrDoIKG9 ]

FMD given she’s the only woman in a Cabinet led by a blokesville douche wholly rejected by women voters at home, do you think she was wearing a shit-eating grin as she posed for the photo?

victoria
Guest

If even Liberals cannot trust Tony Abbott, how can you?

https://mobile.twitter.com/JasonClareMP/status/430835753489154048/photo/1

Bugler
Guest

Zoomster,

I had this crazy fantasy of light rail connecting the various YV towns (particularly along the old Lilydale-Warburton trail, because it suited me the most *cough cough*)

Uni for me wasn’t exactly direct. I drove 20mins to Lilydale, took a train then a bus. The fares are cheaper than the petrol though, and you can read while you travel. It’s takes the same time as driving in peak hour, too.

zoomster
Guest

Bugler

Indeed. We had a special train once, to take us to the monastery on a school trip (all twelve of us). I used to come home on the train from Uni.

dave
Guest

KB – That would be the same Clive who told us all he was running for PM. I doubt he could / should run anywhere.

He is turning out to be just another big mouthed nutjob who bought himself some seats in the parliament, just when someone or collection of people with brains and some wisdom are going to be needed in the Senate in a few months time.

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