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BludgerTrack: 52.6-47.4 to Labor

With the Newspoll drought presumably awaiting to be broken this weekend, it's all quiet on the BludgerTrack front, apart from the always dependable Essential Research.

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The big story in polling this week was no story at all, with Newspoll still yet to resume after its summer break. This has inevitably excited the attention of conspiracy theorists, but if Newspoll takes the field this weekend it will be acting just as it did after the 2010 election, when its first post-New Year poll was conducted in the first weekend in February. In an off week for the fortnightly Morgan series, that just leaves an Essential Research to add to the mix for BludgerTrack, which accordingly records next to no change on last week. Labor does at least reach a new high of 39.5% on the primary vote, putting it within a hair’s breadth of the Coalition. The seat projection is entirely unchanged, with nothing significant happening on the state breakdowns for voting intention. It should be noted that there is still no data from any of the big live-interview phone pollsters this year, all observations this year coming from Essential, Morgan and ReachTEL.

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3133 comments

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Otiose
Guest

04:13:00 11/02/2014 —- Nett_NEWS++™ http://bit.ly/1aQcqOy #auspol #Jobsled pic.twitter.com/wqVqpvm0fU

mexicanbeemer
Guest

On paper Napthine looks in deep trouble but i wouldn’t say its game over just yet, his main problem and maybe it will turn out to be an asset but lack of activity.

Currently there are 21 LNP (I know they are separate parties in Victoria)seats held by margins under 10% including three which have ALP MP’s

So in raw numbers the ALP need to gain five (on paper they hold 40 unofficially 43)

jules
Guest

yb @ 3062

Exactly. Matching irrationality with another irrationality is probably not a sensible way to legislate.

lefty e
Guest

Yep,the Napthine government will fall in November.

I dont wish to piss in my own pocket, but I correctly predicted the fall of the Brumby govt a year out, here at PB, quite a while before many others were agreeing with me 🙂

Andrews to be VIC Premier this year. Could be earlier than we think too.

Simon Katich
Guest

zoidlord, wasnt worth the wait.

kezza2
Guest
Earlier today, and I’m sorry I’ve almost forgotten who it was, maybe Tricot, who made the comment about wtte the paucity of those voting in Griffith. And, the corollary, about 15% or so not bothering to vote at all. Maybe it’s the AEC’s fault for striking eligible voters off the register. Back in the day, when I was a youngster who had to enrol to vote, I was always enrolled in my parents’ electorate. – that is, I wasn’t forced to enrol, nor did my Secondary College organise a Tax File Number for me – but no matter where I… Read more »
zoidlord
Guest

GhostWhoVotes ‏@GhostWhoVotes 53s

#Newspoll 2 Party Preferred: L/NP 49 (+1) ALP 51 (-1) #auspol

GhostWhoVotes ‏@GhostWhoVotes 7s

#Newspoll Primary Votes: L/NP 41 (+1) ALP 35 (-3) GRN 12 (+3) #auspol

Steve777
Guest

So basically the Abbott government destroyed the entire Australian car industry within 5 months

Just imagine if it happened on Labor’s watch. Worse than most things that the ‘Carbon Tax’ was alleged to cause, let alone did cause.

victoria
Guest

confessions

The state of Victoria is getting pummelled at the moment. I will be very surprised if the state coalition is returned in November

Steve777
Guest

Re 3117 – lower service levels from privatised businesses.

lefty e
Guest

So basically the Abbott government destroyed the entire Australian car industry within 5 months.

Great going.

confessions
Guest

victoria:

But Tony’s going to create 1m jobs, so in the greater scheme of things, a loss of 30,000 doesn’t really matter.

You know it makes sense!

Centre
Guest

What right did Bimbo have interrupting Dreyfus like that?

We don’t know if the boats have stopped?

Too much secrecy!

Centre
Guest

I can’t believe the argument being put forward by the ideologists in their support of ceasing assistance to the manufacturing industry.

Two words:

ECONOMIC STUPIDITY

Yesiree Bob
Guest

confessions@3114


I agree with Boerwar that Labor should start pushing back and stop allowing their MPs to be talked over all the time.

Here Here.

Steve777
Guest
Malcolm Turnbull bullshitting on Q&A re ‘Boats’ again. The purpose of the Coalition’s Asylum Seeker policy is to get racist bogans, and others who aren’t necessarily racist but who have a blind spot about immigration and multiculturalism, to vote for: – privatisation (so increased cost and service levels from services now provided by the Federal Government; privatise profits and socialise the losses); – dismantling Medicare; – putting downwards pressure wages and conditions for workers; – transferring wealth up the socioeconomic scale; – transferring more of the taxation burden to PAYE employees; – trashing the environment where ‘necessary’ to increase corporate… Read more »
Centre
Guest

My tip 50/50

victoria
Guest

Online front page of The Age. How depressment

http://www.theage.com.au

confessions
Guest

Constant interrupting seems to be the preferred coalition method for dealing with those panel type shows.

I agree with Boerwar that Labor should start pushing back and stop allowing their MPs to be talked over all the time.

Yesiree Bob
Guest

Like the Corby’s, the LNP and their acolytes sicken me.

Diogenes
Guest

poroti

Actually it depends how you define middle-aged.

Using the definition that you are, on average, half way through your life, ie your life expectancy is the same as how old you are, a 16 year old in 17th century would be younger than middle aged.

She would have a life expectancy of over 50 given that she had managed to live to 16.

Rossmore
Guest

Cmmon James J, Ghost, put us out of our misery….

Puff, the Magic Dragon.
Guest
Puff, the Magic Dragon.

Poroti
[Puff, the Magic Dragon.

Why are dragons large, gold, and fiery ?

Because if they were small, brown, and hairy, they’d be coconuts. ]
😆 😆 😆

guytaur
Guest

Good.night

Rossmore
Guest

Turnbull is like a smooth court jester. Always entertaining, but trapped in the role. Sad really, if he was serious about his legacy he would draw a line and challenge Abbott.

victoria
Guest

Kezza2

Glad all is okay in your neck of the woods

Fran Barlow
Guest
And FTR it’s my view that sexual contact between just pubescent children and adults would always have been wrong, unless and until one could believe that the child in question was in practice capable of informed consent. That’s plainly hard to credit, and one would presume against it, especially in the middle-ages or the period shortly after it. The law finds these things damn near impossible to unpick, and so to protect the interest children have in their acquisition of autonomy, a presumption is made against their capacity to consent to sexual relations with adults, arbitrarily at 16 in our… Read more »
Bushfire Bill
Guest

Does Malcolm Turnbull ever shut up?

Centre
Guest

Dreyfus looked at his watch, can’t blame him, hang in their buddy nearly finished.

Simon Katich
Guest
As for relativism….(this will be long) Richard Shweder says… “I am a cultural pluralist, I am not opposed to universalism. Cultural theorists DO NOT divide into only 2 types (anything goes radical relativist and only one thing is acceptable uniformitarian universalists). I strongly believe in universalism but…without the uniformity, which makes me a pluralist.” He goes on to say he believes in universal values like justice, autonomy, liberty, loyalty etc but they are often in conflict with each other…”all good things in life cant be maximised. When it comes to implementing true values there are always trade-offs which is why… Read more »
Centre
Guest

Nearly finished – thank fuakc

Centre
Guest

The Turnbull and Peroxided Bimbo show on the ABC.

guytaur
Guest

Brilliant question!!!!!

kezza2
Guest

Simon Katich

Your point doesn’t hold at all, irrespective of whether you thought Donne a paedophile or not.

If you seriously think X justice applies for Y crime then borders make no difference, despite a 28 year old chap marrying a 16 year old girl.

And we’re talking late 16th/early 17thC. As poroti says, “In those days, 16 was literally middle aged.”

guytaur
Guest

Twitter hammering the secrecy.

Abbot managing to turn an LNP positive into a negative

Boerwar
Guest
MagicPudding
Guest

Dreyfus definite that burnt asylum seekers should be investigated. Turnbull defends secrecy, wtte the ends justify the means. Dave Hughes gets stuck into Turnbull (including talking over him).

Fran Barlow
Guest

Diogenes

[Donne’s wife was 16 when he married her. He was 25 so that makes him a paedophile by todays standards.]

I’m not sure it does. Age of consent is 16 in NSW. How old was Joe Lyons’s wife?

guytaur
Guest

At least Dave Hughes is interrupting

pedant
Guest

From Boswell’s Life of Johnson: “…much enquiry having been made concerning a gentleman, who had quitted a company where Johnson was, and no information being obtained; at last Johnson observed, that ‘he did not care to speak ill of any man behind his back, but he believed the gentleman was an attorney'”.

Boerwar
Guest

Albrechtson doing the standard right thing of interrupting. She and Turnbull have been at it all night. It is time for Labor reps to learn to interrupt and talk over Murdoch’s Marauders.

Boerwar
Guest

Albrechtson doing a brilliant job covering Abbott’s arse.

poroti
Guest

Boerwar

[
Albrechtson caught out misrepresenting the facts.]
Being a Murdoch employee that is the default position.

Boerwar
Guest

Albrechtson caught misrepresenting the facts twice.

Boerwar
Guest

Albrechtson caught out misrepresenting the facts.

Boerwar
Guest

Dreyfus is doing a good job tonight.

Boerwar
Guest

Turnbull routinely interrupts Dreyfuss who is actually doing an excellent job tonight.

Simon Katich
Guest

Whoooa, i must apologise Fran. When I first mentioned the P word I was going from memory and that was that Ann was around 13. Then I checked, and she was 16 and tried to cover my tracks.

So, sorry for that, but my point holds.

poroti
Guest

Diogenes

In those days 16 was literally middle aged.

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