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Federal Politics 2013-

Feb 13, 2014

BludgerTrack: 51.8-48.2 to Labor

The weekly poll aggregate has Newspoll eliminating Labor's modest gains over the early new year period, when it had only Essential, Morgan and ReachTEL to go on.

The first Newspoll of the year has caused Labor to take a knock on the BludgerTrack poll aggregate, helped along a little by a softer result from Morgan. Newspoll has also driven up the Greens, whose breakthrough into double figures softens a shift from Labor to Coalition on the primary vote to a 0.8% movement on two-party preferred. That translates into a solid six-point change on the seat projection, which is now back to hung parliament territory. Taking into account Labor’s still solid lead on the two-party result, this demonstrates the height of the bar the BludgerTrack model sets for Labor in making it to an absolute majority, mostly on account of sophomore surge effects in the decisive marginal seats. On the state breakdowns, the Coalition recovers one seat each in Victoria and Tasmania and four in Queensland. The latter is down to the publication of a Galaxy poll of federal voting intention in Queensland from yesterday’s Courier-Mail, which I have thus far failed to comment on. The poll of 800 respondents showed the Coalition with a 52-48 lead – a swing of 5% to Labor from the election, and 4% on the previous such poll in November – from primary votes of 41% for the Coalition (down five on the November poll), 33% for Labor (up three), 7% for the Greens (steady), 4% for Katter’s Australian Party (up one) and 11% for the Palmer United Party (up three). It was evident that BludgerTrack had wandered off the reservation for a while there so far as its Queensland projection was concerned, and the addition of this substantial new data point from a high-quality pollster has returned it to where it probably should have been all along.

There are also two new results to feed into the leadership ratings, one being the regular findings from Newspoll and the other the monthly result from Essential Research. Both have landed in exactly the same place after bias adjustments were added, and the effect has been to maintain the downward momentum for Bill Shorten that emerged when the last numbers were added from Essential Research a month ago. Tony Abbott on the other hand has been in a gentler pattern of decline after the steep fall that followed the Coalition’s polling slip in November, and has a stable lead of slightly below double figures as preferred prime minister. Some good analysis of the leadership ratings is available at the bottom of this post by Kevin Bonham, who previously noted that Shorten’s early ratings were on the mediocre side for a leader new to the job, and now finds similarities with Brendan Nelson and Simon Crean at comparable stages of the game.

As always, full results on the sidebar.

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1740 comments

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frednk
Guest

Four billion lost because the price on carbon is going, mining tax gone.

On the other side of the ledger, direct action, paid perental leave for the rich and reducing revenue as they tank the economy.

These clowns sure know haw to create a budget emergency. A six dollar charge on all doctor visits isn’t going to pay for it.

Abbott the lost years.

BK
Guest

Good morning Dawn Patrollers.
Can I have some too?
http://www.smh.com.au/national/billionaire-lindsay-fox-given-5m-portsea-beach-20140215-32sng.html
Hmm. Focus groups on expensive steroids.
http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/government-spends-43-million-to-gauge-mood-on-social-media-20140215-32snf.html
Abbott’s priorities on display.
http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/private-school-security-guards-are-provided-by-the-taxpayer-20140215-32snt.html
There’s a smell here.
http://www.smh.com.au/nsw/coonabarabran-fire-inquiry-holdup-blamed-on-political-interference-20140215-32sni.html
Who do they think they are, Microsoft?
http://www.theage.com.au/victoria/australian-shoppers-forced-to-pay-fashion-premiuim-20140215-32swl.html
Fairfax revisits Abbott’s carbon tax disaster claims. One has to wonder at the business acumen of many of the companies that hosted his stunts.
http://www.theage.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/fairfax-revisits-tony-abbotts-carbon-tax-warnings-20140215-32svg.html
Fiona, where are you?
http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/fiona-nash-dodges-spotlight-after-junk-food-furore-20140215-32sne.html
Peter FitzSimons’ weekly column.
http://www.smh.com.au/comment/strategic-retreat-has-more-appeal-than-a-cheque-20140215-32sf2.html
Cathy Wilcox looks at our priorities.
http://www.smh.com.au/photogallery/federal-politics/cartoons/cathy-wilcox-20090909-fhd6.html
Pat Campbell gives us his interpretation of Channel 7’s approach to Corby.
http://www.smh.com.au/photogallery/federal-politics/cartoons/pat-campbell-20120213-1t21q.html

daretotread
Guest

Deblonay

Indonesia may have good reason for fearing further trouble in the ME, since together with Turkey anMalaysia they may become the final destination for many millions. If Australia, Europe and Canada close their borders to Muslims, where else could displaced Palestinians or Syrians go? pt

Syria, Iraq, Egypt and Lebanon are essentially trashed, Jordan too small and would not welcome Sheites.

Otiose
Guest
deblonay
Guest

________

Indonesia and the rights of the Palestinians——-
________________________________________

-Indo Foreign Minister pledges strong support for the Palestinians and their rights to a state…and will make it a major plank of the Indons foreign policy..with a major world Conf later in the year in Jakarta..
_____________
This coming on top of Bishop’s statement of suppprt for the building of illegal jewish settlements on the West Bank…is just another area where the two govts will have major disagreements

http://www.antaranews.com/en/news/92113/indonesia-to-strengthen-support-for-palestine-minister

Puff, the Magic Dragon.
Guest
Puff, the Magic Dragon.
Tom the first and best
Guest
Tom the first and best

1732

If they all contribute then they should all have some ownership and/or wages to show for it.

davidwh
Guest

Rossmcg all individuals are subject to the same tax on personal income. The difference with trusts is the ability to direct trust profit where you get the best tax advantage. For ordinary salary earners an equivalent would be tax splitting in a single income family.

People who support trusts argue that beneficiaries all contribute to the trust income so deserve a share. It’s really a shallow argument but so far it has won the argument.

Rossmcg
Guest

Davidwh

Hit a lot of small businesses and farming families. Does that mean they would pay the same tax as people who work for wages?
If I recall correctly reform of the tax arrangements for trust was something that Peter Costello mentioned. I think he was quickly slapped down by the Nats and it was never mentioned again.

Simon Katich
Guest

madcyril, I heard (via the guardian) the terrible interview with the Austrlian Womens cricket team that Slats and Vaughan did….simply awful, glad i wasnt watching.

Re BBC – I got used to the delay. I really enjoyed the BBC.

swamprat
Guest

Diogenes

[I dream of a world where capitalist running dogs are sent for re-education in the salt mines of Siberia.]

Are you a bolshevik? If so, you would share the disdain for free expression with Brandis.

Simon Katich
Guest

Fran, shame on you injecting a political jibe into a cricket comment.

Test cricket and politics should not mix.

Unless you are Bob Hawke.

Sir Mad Cyril
Guest

[
madcyril, I havent been able to listen to Ch9 commentary for years now, this year i went to a new level of heavenly enjoyment by listening to BBC radio, didnt matter it was 4 balls behind the vision.
]

Simon

Yes I listened to the BBC radio coverage at work and it was very enjoyable. I can’t cope with the radio being out of whack with the TV coverage and just have to put up with Channel 9’s shambolic efforts. Still, if that’s the biggest problem I face this year, I’ll be doing well!

swamprat
Guest

[Insiders tomorrow will be about unions. Union corruption. Shorten as a union bully. Etc.]

In a country of drought, tears shed for the ALP/Unions is a great waste of water.

Once a movement for justice the ALP is bereft of any Australian light on the hill.

It just defines itself as a shadow of the LNP Turbo-capitalists.

When i studied Australian history, politics was understood as between Labor and non-labor.

Sadly it is now between rightists and non-rightists.

davidwh
Guest

Tom simply because it is allowed under current tax legislation and no government has had the courage to try and change that mainly because it will hit a lot of small business families and farming families. The simple way to fix it is to tax trusts at the same rate as companies and allow the beneficiaries a franking credit.

Rossmcg
Guest

Tom
The Tories get richer and pay less tax and society benefits

Tom the first and best
Guest
Tom the first and best

1719

Why should company income be splittable but not wage income?

If there is a justification for income splitting, there should be no disadvantage for wage earners compared to companies.

Diogenes
Guest

[I dream of of a world where all tory exploiters disappeared into their nasty black holes.]

I dream of a world where capitalist running dogs are sent for re-education in the salt mines of Siberia. 👿

deblonay
Guest

What’s Up at Menzies House ???????????
_________________
I am a regular reader and a one time contrib)uter(until I got banned for my rarther trenchant comments… at Menzies House

However there has been only one item posted by the management since early January…and that was posting was a few weeks ago…since then..nothing…nada..zilch

So Nothing…. what is happening to one of the Libs prime sites
where is Bernardi ????

If only Sean Tisme was here to keep us informed …oh well…

wpDiscuz