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Galaxy: 55-45 to Liberal in South Australia

The first poll of a South Australian election year shows the Liberals with a decisive lead in the wake of Labor's recent travails.

The Advertiser reports a Galaxy poll of 849 respondents conducted last night and the night before has the Liberals with a 55-45 lead on two-party preferred, a small but very handy gain on the 54-46 it recorded from Galaxy in November, and the 53-47 from Newspoll’s quarterly October-to-December result. Galaxy puts the Liberals on 46% of the primary vote, compared with 35% for Labor and 7% for the Greens.

The accompanying report by Daniel Wills further relates that the Liberals are feeling “bullish” about the Whyalla-based seat of Giles, which Labor holds by 11.9% but faces the retirement of sitting member Lyn Breuer, and Mount Gambier, a naturally conservative seat which passed from one independent to another in 2010. Conversely, Labor is said to be hopeful of recovering the seat of Adelaide, where it presumably believes the decisive 14.5% Liberal swing in 2010 was driven by one-off local issues.

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21 comments

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spur212
Guest

ReachTEL

ALP 45, Liberal 55

Rational Leftist
Guest

Anybody else think it’s a bit queer that we’re getting more polling from Tasmania than SA? I mean I don’t expect one every day but there is an election on now, I’d like something more than the occasional Galaxy.

Utopia
Guest

Can anyone tell me what the current state of seats is in South Australia assuming the redistributions and no swing?

(In other words which seats nominally changed hands based on the redistribution?)

spur212
Guest

I reckon the ALP’s campaign will try and do this sort of ad without the personality for Jay while going outrageously negative on the other side

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=t-eKk2bsK08

spur212
Guest

Out of those three, I think the third scenario is the most likely outcome

spur212
Guest
One of three things is going to happen: 1. Voting intention hardens since Farrell’s foolish intervention and the Liberals cruise to an easy victory by taking full advantage of it. 2. The issues dominate the campaign and the ALP are able to swing undecideds by creating uncertainty over the Liberals lack of detailed policies, Marshall’s lack of a profile and a targeted marginal seat campaign like they did in 2010 (the idea behind Jay4SA might be trying to exploit this very thing) 3. What happened at the federal election last year where voters turn off both parties, go with their… Read more »
Toorak Toff
Guest

Loses a True Believer

Toorak Toff
Guest
Labor looses a True Believer, son of late sernator Geoff McLaren. [AROLD Geoffrey McLaren was born on November 15, 1941, to Geoffrey Thomas and Beryl McLaren (nee Jennings) in Portland, Victoria. As a young lad Harold lived with his parents in Portland before the family relocated to Murray Bridge when Harold was just nine years of age. He passed the rest of his life in the town. Harold attended Murray Bridge primary and high schools before joining ETSA in Murray Bridge as an apprentice electrical fitter. He worked in Murray Bridge and Adelaide and rose to become Supervising Electrical Inspector… Read more »
Socrates
Guest
Dio [When Labor is coming up with crap like this, you know they are desperate. O-BAHN users have been promised a $160 million upgrade of the service — including an underpass from Hackney to the city — aimed at cutting travel times by four minutes. $160M for the Obahn to cut 4 minutes off the travel time.] I must agree, this smacks of desperation. The last project was messed up by lack of consultation and failing to stitch up a deal with Adelaide City Council. Now this tunnel comes out of left field in a similar style. Reminds me of… Read more »
Arrnea Stormbringer
Guest

It’s not looking good for Labor, but it’s certainly not a completely lost cause like Tasmania is.

Diogenes
Guest

TT

We will have to see how the New RAH works. It certainly isn’t “great” until we see how it functions.

It’s too small and doesn’t have the WCH attached which is a bad mistake.

Toorak Toff
Guest

No doubt the Libs will bolt in despite having:
1. Diddly squat policy
2. A sophomore leader who stands for nothing
3. A destructive federal government of the same ilk
4. A raft of ALP candidates who are far above average
5. An opponent that has delivered – a great new hospital well on the way, rail electrification, a brilliant new Adelaide Oval.

When it’s time, I guess it’s time.

sykesie
Guest
The ALP are obviously in big trouble in SA. The main problem the Liberals have, however, is ousting a number of popular local members. Paul Caica, Leon Bignell, Tony Piccolo, Steph Key are the most notable of those. They also have the potential of a sophomore surge to deal with in Mitchell (Alan Sibbons). The Liberals also need to win back seats from the independents, most notably in Frome and Mt Gambier (potential sophomore surge for Don Pegler). They can forget about Bob Such in Fisher, he will either retire eventually or die in office before the Liberals win this… Read more »
1934pc
Guest

Looks like we are about to enter the “Dark Ages” with the Libs in control all over the place!.

spur212
Guest

This election really is a lose/lose for voters. All transport and road congestion bullshit because that’s where all the marginal seats are located. The Liberals will win, quickly lose discipline and will revert to the way they usually behave in this state.

As for the ALP, what an emerging train wreck! It’s like the beginning of the rot setting in ala NSW.

Dignity for the Disabled look like the way to go for this one.

Rational Leftist
Guest

Note: IT, when you decide to interact with me in a way that isn’t a condescending straw man, I will acknowledge your remarks. Until then, I couldn’t give two shits what your opinions are.

Independently Thinking
Guest
Independently Thinking

Quite right CM, planning decisions should be made by the Planning Minister alone after a suitable amount of money has been donated to Progressive Business Pty Ltd.
We’re not as bad as NSW, but gee, some in the ALP in SA want to give it a shake.

Rational Leftist
Guest

These are exactly the numbers I’d expect after the Don Farrell stuff, although I think the results will be slightly narrower on election day (although still a clear Lib win)

and Mod Lib, I wouldn’t be too smug, that policy is still absolutely visionary compared to the bullshit your lot are proposing – including the economically ridiculous plan to give all power of construction and development approvals back to the irresponsible and myopic local councils.

Utopia
Guest

$160 for 4 minutes……that would be quite efficient spending for the ALP! :devil:

Diogenes
Guest

When Labor is coming up with crap like this, you know they are desperate.

[O-BAHN users have been promised a $160 million upgrade of the service — including an underpass from Hackney to the city — aimed at cutting travel times by four minutes. ]

$160M for the Obahn to cut 4 minutes off the travel time.

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