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SA Election 2014

Feb 17, 2014

ReachTEL: 55-45 to Liberal in South Australia

A new ReachTEL poll for the March 15 South Australian state election provides the exact same two-party preferred result as last week's Galaxy poll.

GhostWhoVotes relates that a ReachTEL automated phone poll, which I’m guessing was conducted for Channel Seven, concurs with the recent Galaxy poll in having the Liberals with an election-winning lead of 55-45. Primary votes are 31.3% for Labor, 42.3% for Liberal, 18.4% for “others” including the Greens and 8% for undecided, which taking the latter out of the equation results in 34%, 46% and 20%. Steven Marshall leads Jay Weatherill as preferred premier 58.5-41.5, but ReachTEL’s findings on personal ratings can be a bit unusual owing to the absence of an undecided option.

UPDATE: Full results here.

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36 comments

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Toorak Toff
Guest

This election was won and lost four years ago when Labor electorate wanted Labor out and will make sure of it this time.

Similarly, Labor had unlikely wins in NSW and Queensland only to be wiped out at the following election. But in Victoria, Labor lost narrowly last time and is well poised to come back later this year.

Labor’s tragedy in SA is that factional deals have put some very average candidates in safe seats whereas the real talent needed to revive the party in opposition is being cast to the lions in seats where they cannot win in the prevailing political climate. Examples, David O’Loughlin in Adelaide, Jo Chapley in Dunstan and perhaps Martin Mullighan in Lee.

Rational Leftist
Guest

(One more post just to apologise for hijacking this thread with this argument. I’ll stop now because I’d rather see electoral analysis.)

Rational Leftist
Guest

Also, a Premier stepping down as party leader after he’s lost an election an election doesn’t count as proof of him not currently having support of his caucus – that’s just desperate spin.

Rational Leftist
Guest

[Doubt it will be a repeat of 1993 as those were very exceptional circumstances but I do think the Liberals will take seats from higher up the pendulum than 5%]

Definitely. There was a 7% swing in the federal election here so big swings can happen.

Rational Leftist
Guest

Still no proof from “moderate” just more name calling and sulking. Face it, you’re nothing but a hack. That wouldn’t be a problem if you didn’t enter the conversation having a big sulk and dismissing everybody else’s commentary in an arrogant, condescending way because they were saying things you didn’t want to hear.

The difference between you and me is I separate my opinions from my analysis and will say something is happening/will happen even if I don’t want it to. Whereas you seem to just parrot anything that you want to hear and get tetchy when things you don’t want to hear are said.

spur212
Guest

Doubt it will be a repeat of 1993 as those were very exceptional circumstances but I do think the Liberals will take seats from higher up the pendulum than 5% 2CP

moderate
Guest

Thanks for the normal lefty cerebral analysis. Lets just see what happens after the election with Wehterill’s leadership. I drink either 389 or 407 so a case delivered will suffice as an apology. I have always thought that jaundice is in the eye of the beholder….

Rational Leftist
Guest

[What kind of proof do you want. If you like I’ll provide you with 15 stat decs – unfortunately that’s not the way politics works.]

You’re the one who made the claim. I just want something to back it up. Because, frankly, it seems like you’re talking out of your arse. And logic is on my side here too.

[I am about as jaundiced as you are, but I know whose position I’d like to be in…..]

There’s nothing jaundiced about me, thank you very much.

moderate
Guest

What kind of proof do you want. If you like I’ll provide you with 15 stat decs – unfortunately that’s not the way politics works.
I am about as jaundiced as you are, but I know whose position I’d like to be in…..

Rational Leftist
Guest

Comparing this election to 1993 is a bit too fanciful. Mind you, I judge from the language of your posts that you’re hardly objective, “moderate”.

I’m still waiting for your proof that majority of caucus don’t support Jay Weatherill.

moderate
Guest

I can advise from what I hear that Reynell is very much on the Libs radar. They are targeting anything under 12pc as possible using the ’93 election as a decent guide. And internal polling is showing much stronger results than the forecasted 55/45…..

Rational Leftist
Guest

Reynell is a big ask for the Libs. However such news leaves a nasty mark on the entire party and just makes the ALP campaign look even more desperate and dysfunctional.

Toorak Toff
Guest

The Labor candidate for Reynell is in trouble for alleged dodgy electioneering. This is one seat off the radar where they say an upset is on the cards.

spur212
Guest

I’ll laugh if the polls start narrowing to 47/53 ish in the last couple of weeks …

Rational Leftist
Guest

And I just looked at the website. I cannot stop laughing. I hope, for his sake, that his on-the-ground and media campaign is better organised.

Rational Leftist
Guest

Although, thinking about it, it does assume the 3 indies will be reelected and they are all in seats that are notionally Liberal (and would be so if the contest was ALP v Lib, which would make it a more realistic 28 seats notionally for the Libs)

Rational Leftist
Guest

Antony Green has released an election calculator:

http://www.abc.net.au/news/sa-election-2014/calculator/

Be cautious of it though, as it does assume the seats will swing universally and 55-45 on it gives the Libs 25 seats but, realistically, that kind of 2PP margin will probably give them more.

spur212
Guest

Adam @16 expresses the view of “political genius” David Feeney

spur212
Guest

Bird of paradox

ROTFL That’s hilarious! Went round that electorate on Sunday and saw his corflutes all over the place so I thought he might still have some sort of presence around the area. Guess I was wrong

Rational Leftist
Guest

[Weatherall is a nice guy. And smart. The problem is the rest of cabinet.]

Not the entire cabinet. There are a few good names in there but, yeah, a lot of the senior cabinet members are self-serving idiots.

Makes you wonder who’s going to steer this ship once Weatherill resigns after the election.

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