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Federal Politics 2013-

Feb 20, 2014

BludgerTrack: 50.0-50.0

On the back of the Coalition's best poll result since November, the BludgerTrack aggregate finds Labor's two-party lead evaporating and the Coalition back in charge on the seat projection.

The slump in Labor support recorded in the year’s first Nielsen poll has been exactly enough to erase a two-party lead in the BludgerTrack poll aggregate, which it had enjoyed since mid-December. This was despite a strong result for Labor from Essential Research, which appears to be maintaining its curious status as a lagged indicator. On the state breakdowns, the biggest movement is in Victoria, where Nielsen had Labor’s lead at a well below-par 52-48. This has helped cut the Victorian swing on BludgerTrack from 7.9% to 4.3%, and reduced Labor’s projected seat gain from five to two. Elsewhere, Labor is down one seat each in New South Wales, Queensland, South Australia and the Northern Territory. The overall projection is now for a Coalition absolute majority, providing another indication that the BludgerTrack model considers the electoral terrain to be weighted in the Coalition’s favour. Leadership ratings from Nielsen provided further evidence of diminishing support for Bill Shorten, who is now only fractionally ahead of Tony Abbott on net approval. Abbott’s lead of about 10% as preferred prime minister has nonetheless been stable since early December, as has his slightly negative net approval rating. Full results as always on the sidebar.

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2335 comments

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Otiose
Guest

UPDATE: 03:24:00 25/02/2014 —- Nett_NEWS++™ @ http://bit.ly/1aQcqOy #auspol http://bit.ly/OtLVd4

Otiose
Guest

UPDATE: 05:28:00 24/02/2014 —- Nett_NEWS++™ @ http://bit.ly/1aQcqOy #auspol #LightTheDark Composite
http://bit.ly/1gua2Qh

victoria
Guest
zoomster
Guest

New thread, guys!

poroti
Guest

BK

[All of the Repugs’ Obamacare “horror stories” seem to get debunked.]
The Koch brothers appear again. Truly appalling people. They make Rupe appear positively benign.

[the tale of one Julia Boonstra of Michigan, wholesaled by the Koch-founded conservative organization Americans for Prosperity.]

antonbruckner11
Guest

First law of insurrections: when the rioters take photos of the leader’s dunny, it’s all over.

frednk
Guest

[
Casey Nelson ‏@LTO_cambodia 7h

Considering current local politics, it doesnt seem wise of Australia to encourage Cambodia to create detention camps for unwanted immigrants
]
Where is this guys sense of adventure. We have stuffed up the rule of law in Nauru, have thugs running detention centers in PNG. Bigger, better, lets see what trouble we can make in Cambodia.

himi
Guest

Huh – I have a feeling William posted a new thread but forgot to post the notification.

himi

BK
Guest

And from the Land of the Free –

A Tea Party nutter joins in the Kentucky Senate race.
http://thepoliticalcarnival.net/2014/02/22/pack-babies-grab-old-ladies-everyones-longer-safe-kentucky/
All of the Repugs’ Obamacare “horror stories” seem to get debunked.
http://www.dailykos.com/story/2014/02/21/1279312/-Are-there-any-real-Obamacare-horror-nbsp-stories
Bill Maher on “personalised news” that is becoming more prevalent on the internet.
http://www.mediaite.com/tv/mahers-new-rule-hearing-stories-that-confirm-your-beliefs-isnt-news-its-fox-news/
Bill Maher with some funny masturbation pamphlets.
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2014/02/22/bill-maher-overcoming-masturbation_n_4838140.html

pom
Guest

One would have thought that there would have been leaks from within the navy by now on what really happened for multiple ships to misunderstand where the border was. The navy has and is been held up to ridicule by the actions of the happy clapper.
Which leads me to the question why did Abbott put a army guy in charge where most of the action was on to be on the water. Could it be assumed the navy might be more knowledge of water issues. Maybe not?

poroti
Guest
With Morriscum admitting his sliming of the AS it would be a good time to hear about one of them. This is about the guy that was killed. [A group of contractors who all met Berati on Manus island sent Guardian Australia an exclusive statement describing him as a “gentle giant”………. Reza always waited and looked forward to meeting with us and reading with him. He studied a lot,” the group said. “He used to always pick up bugs and moths off the ground and put them back in the garden, worried that someone would step on them. (The guys… Read more »
mari
Guest

http://www.smh.com.au/money/super-and-funds/hard-sell-to-return-if-advice-laws-change-20140221-3364j.html

Surprise?

BK

That is wonderful news modern medical care at its best plus a fighting little champion’s willpower

canasta76
Guest

Happy Clapper Abbott sitting back happy as Larry whilst 1000’s of Australian jobs are consigned to the dustbin.When does this habitual liar start producing the million jobs promised during the election.I know, they were Non Core and not in writing.

BK
Guest

mari
The little champ is now 2.1 kg (look! I’ve changed the unit of measure) and should be going home in 3 weeks. He is doing very well.

BK
Guest

Good morning Dawn Patrollers.
These clowns should never have been let near public schoolchildren!
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2014-02-23/biblezine-complaint-sparks-probe-into-religious-educator/5277766
Morriscum late on Saturday night admits he is a misleading flake!
http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/scott-morrison-admits–information-he-gave-on-manus-riot-was-wrong-20140222-339hs.html
Here’s Bianca Hall’s take on it.
http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-opinion/disquiet-at-aid-without-liability-20140222-338l7.html
Turnbull puts his foot down and this is what hapens!
http://www.smh.com.au/digital-life/mobiles/travellers-to-pay-telstra-up-to-500-more-20140222-3398x.html
I hope Hadley has a nice week off.
http://www.smh.com.au/nsw/ray-hadley-off-air-for-a-week-after-application-for-avo-20140222-338zg.html
What a surprise.
http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/modelling-finds-gp-fee-no-moneysaver-20140222-338zd.html
Abbott has subjugated all vestiges of decency and moderation in his party.
http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/liberal-partys-moderate-voice-goes-silent-under-tony-abbotts-leadership-20140222-3391c.html
Sinodinis is playing with fire here.
http://www.smh.com.au/business/beware-of-getting-burnt-in-the-financial-services-boilerroom-culture-20140221-337kc.html
This is what Cathy Wilcox thinks it has all come to.
http://www.smh.com.au/photogallery/federal-politics/cartoons/cathy-wilcox-20090909-fhd6.html

canasta76
Guest

Funnily enough I have the SPIN for our Navy crossing into Indonesias waters,we were looking for the piece of string floating on the water that seperates our 2 waters.

canasta76
Guest

Most first world countries have competent Navies,we in Australia have Admiral Morriscum in charge of McHales Navy.

mari
Guest

BK

How is big grandson progressing?

canasta76
Guest

Operation Soveriegn Borders
Who is looking after our borders?
Can’t be the Navy as they don’t know where our borders start and finish.
Shown by how many times they have encroached into Indonesias Soveriegn Waters,6 Times which is 5 too many.
Maybe we need Captains that can read maps or G.P.S equipment or an immigration minister who doesn’t lie all the time.

Otiose
Guest

UPDATE: 04:58:00 23/02/2014 —- Nett_NEWS++™ @ http://bit.ly/1aQcqOy #auspol http://bit.ly/OnaOai

imacca
Guest

[Two Ukraines ???]

One where it is chilly, and one where they have all the cheap gas they can use??

deblonay
Guest
The quetion of the peninsula of the Crimea will be interesting now _________________ In Kruschev’s time it was made part of the Ukraine for administrative reasons(Ihe was a Ukrainian ) though it’s Russian and has the massive Russian naval base at Sebestapol…which was almost totally destroyed by the Nazis in 1942…and then rebuilt after the war The Russians will NEVER give it up Anyway the “deposed :President says there has been a coup and he is still President…and he is now in the Russian-speaking city of Karkiv where he will have much support one assumes This may hedald a split… Read more »
imacca
Guest

So, according to BBC (on ABC24) the Ukrainian President is calling it a coup and is not going to resign. I’d think now it all depends on Russia’s response. Given that Putin doesn’t do finesse or subtlety this could get very ugly.

Jimmyhaz
Guest

mexican @2304

Given the public debate surrounding his position, I’m not sure there is anyone in any position of power with the requisite knowledge to do so.

frednk
Guest

So what now? Indonesia have said stop. Manus and Naura a failure, several thousand have to be found a home.

http://www.dailytelegraph.com.au/news/nsw/manus-could-close-investigation-finds-immigration-department-failings-on-nauru/story-fni0cx12-1226834680809

lefty e
Guest

I agree with Amis. You cant even watch decent HBO shows without buying into Murdoch’s ludicrously outdated white elephant tech Foxtel.

Its so yesterday, cable. WHat a joke, what is this,the 90s? But through sweetheart deals, scams and political influence he get it grandfathered into the future, well past its use-by, the alternative sources gets shut down, and we get to party like its 1999 forever.

Like any good capitalist the main thing Rupert fears is competition.

deblonay
Guest

Martin Amis. noted .UK novelist… blames the “vicious” Murdoch tabloids for much that is wrong with British life…saying the Brits are’ not as vicious or as stupid as the Murdoch tabloids would give you to think

http://www.theguardian.com/culture/australia-culture-blog/2014/feb/22/martin-amis-on-guns-america-a

guytaur
Guest

Now its goodnight for real.

guytaur
Guest
deblonay
Guest

Re Jews in Ukraine
____________
so the Chief Rabbi is a liar ???
or Haaretz is misinformed ?

lefty e
Guest
mexicanbeemer
Guest

Jimmyhaz

Yes but surely someone has tapped him on the shoulder and pointed out the flaws although some ministers like to think they know better than anyone else.

Psephos
Guest
frednk
Guest

I suspect Labor will not make that mistake twice.

[ margo kingston ‏@margokingston1 1h

Stupid Labor nice. Rudd jobs for Nelson, Fischer, Hill, no inquiries into Howard admin. Son of Howard kicks Labor to death, appoints cronies
]

deblonay
Guest

Haaretz warns Jews of anti-semitic dangers from the rise of new Right in the Ukraine

http://www.haaretz.com/jewish-world/jewish-world-news/1.575732

deblonay
Guest

Re Ukraine
_________
According to the Israeli newwspaper “Haaretz” the Chief Rabbi of Kiev has warned Jews in that city to be ready to flee if they are threatened by the far-right …and often anti-semitic groups…in the now dominant opposition in Kiev

Jimmyhaz
Guest

I’m leaning towards doesn’t understand economics.

mexicanbeemer
Guest

Looks like i have not missed much today besides having someone openly agreeing not once but twice with positions i haev openly stated, not bad considering the silly billy in question reckons we never agree 😉

O and the ALP won a by-election and yesterday Joe confirmed that he either doesn’t understand economics or is being badly advised.

daretotread
Guest

Zoomster

You are just WRONG but too stubborn to admit it.

I am Soooooo!!!!! glad you know more that 6 HC judges. Have you though about applying for immediate appointment to the bench?

guytaur
Guest

Good.night

Psephos
Guest

[Would Russia go to war over the Crimea? I think it might.]

Yes I agree. They went to war over Abkhazia, a rat-hole no-one has ever heard of. But Sebastopol is one of the great shrines of Russian military history, and a 100% Russian city.

Psephos
Guest

[I think you are right. It would also mean Russia more likely to let the smaller Ukraine have its EU treaty.]

Western Ukraine could actually join the EU in a few years. Let the Russians have the Donbass rustbelt.

guytaur
Guest

@Wendycarlisle: If Reza Berati died inside the Manus detention centre that should immediately trigger an Australian coronial inquiry http://t.co/6DR7xW3szm

guytaur
Guest

Psephos

I think you are right. It would also mean Russia more likely to let the smaller Ukraine have its EU treaty

deblonay
Guest
Re the Ukraine..and the EU________There is no question of the Ukraine “joining the EU’..they were offered closer association ..which is a very fdifferent thing…. The EU has talked of a matter of”fiscal reform” which is the Bankers word for harsh economic measures as they did to the poor people of Greece’.. This would be a harsh trauma for millons of ukrainians… and the Russian speaking people of Eastern Ukraine would not accept this…the country will then face partition The Russian see this as a move to extend the NATO machine to teir border They hold after all the energy card… Read more »
Psephos
Guest

[@shustry: Russia appears to be preparing a grab for parts of Ukraine. Senior Moscow delegates in Kharkiv. Crimea asking for “protection” from Rus army]

Partitioning Ukraine is probably the best solution. The eastern and southern areas are not Ukrainian and have never wanted to be.

Oakeshott Country
Guest

Crimea was part of Russia from the eighteenth century till the mid 50s when the Soviet presidium transfered it to the Ukraine. There is still a Russian majority despite the Tartars gradually returning from exile. Would Russia go to war over the Crimea? I think it might.

Rossmore
Guest

On the Pink Batts Royal Commission into the deaths of four young people. A tragedy yes.

But was there an RC into the Snowy River Hydro scheme … where there were 121 deaths?

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Snowy_Mountains_Scheme

guytaur
Guest

“@AP: BREAKING: A spokeswoman for Yulia Tymoshenko says the former prime minister has been freed from prison.”

Centre
Guest

Wigan have scored again from a knock on. They gave it to him coz there are more Wigan supporters at the game (Sydney Football Stadium) than the Chooks LOL

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