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Queensland Politics

Feb 22, 2014

# % Swing 2PP (proj.) Swing
Andrew Tyrrell 177 0.7%
Sally Vincent (Family First) 586 2.5% -2.1%
Len Thomas 2,513 10.6%
John Marshall (Greens) 950 4.0% -2.7%
Gabriel Buckley 230 1.0%
Yvette D’Ath (Labor) 10,375 43.6% +12.9% 56.2% +16.3%
Talosaga McMahon 317 1.3%
Liz Woollard 279 1.2%
Kerri-Anne Dooley (Liberal National) 8,353 35.1% -14.1% 43.8% -16.3%
FORMAL/TURNOUT 23,780 71.7%
Informal 655 2.7% +0.3%
Booths reporting: 13 out of 13

9.49pm. The two-party results from the pre-polls have now been added. I’ve switched off booth-matching, so all swings shown above compare the current result with the final total from 2012.

8.30pm. All booths now in on 2PP, and around 4000 new pre-poll votes added on the primary vote. I’m guessing a two-party result for the latter votes is the last outstanding addition for the evening.

8.04pm. All booths in on 2PP now except Scarborough North. The latest additions have slightly moderated Labor’s winning margin.

7.57pm. All booths in on the primary vote, four outstanding on 2PP.

7.52pm. Redcliffe TAFE 2PP added, with four left to go on 2PP, and Scarborough the one straggler on the primary vote.

7.39pm. When I said Scarborough had reported before, I meant Woody Point. Kippa-Ring north has reported as well, as have seven booths all told on 2PP. So the Labor margin of 7% is looking solid.

7.36pm. Bally Cara 2PP result added, which has moderated Labor’s gain on the preference share considerably: now up 3.6%, with the LNP down 6.3%, and exhausted up 2.8%. Still a projected Labor winning margin of 7% though.

7.33pm. Scarborough booth added on the primary vote, leaving only two more to go, but with still only one booth reporting on 2PP.

7.30pm. The pre-poll votes also have 2PP results now, and here Labor’s gain on the preference share is more modest. However, the projection above is based on polling booth results only.

7.29pm. Finally a 2PP result, from Kippa-Ring South, and the projection is now using this result rather than the 2012 election to extrapolate across other booths. This has given a solid boost to the projected Labor margin, with Labor’s share of preferences up 9.7%, the LNP’s down 8.0%, and exhausted down 1.8%.

7.23pm. Andrew Bartlett relates: “Preferences from 86 Greens votes at Kippa Ring booth went 40 ALP, 4 LNP, 42 exhausted.”

7.19pm. Independent Len Thomas, who ran in opposition to anti-bikie laws, has his head above double figures.

7.16pm. Smallish Scarborough North booth added on primary vote, leaving three more to come; still nothing for 2PP.

7.13pm. Clontarf and Redcliffe South push projected Labor margin over 5%. Four booths outstanding on primary vote, and still nothing for two-party preferred.

7.11pm. Biggest booth in yet from Kippa-Ring, which produces a good result for Labor that pushes the projected margin to nearly 5%. Still no preference counts though …

7.09pm. Woody Point South added, projected Labor margin now reaches 4.0%.

7.08pm. Clontarf Beach added, slightly increasing projected Labor winning margin. Still no two-party results though, so this assumes 2012 preference flows.

7.06pm. Bally Cara and Redcliffe TAFE have reported on the primary vote. The former is a retirement village and comfortably the electorate’s most conservative booth. Respective two-party swings are 11.8% and 14.8%, well in line with overall trend and confirming an impression of Labor winning by 3-4%.

7.04pm. 2463 pre-polls added, which I don’t have configured for booth-matching, but the swing on them is perfectly consistent with the overall trend. I gather this is about half the likely pre-poll total.

6.59pm. Second booth in now, from Frawley, and projected Labor winning margin up from 2.6% to 3.5%. Still going off 2012 preferences here, so a small degree of caution advised.

6.52pm. So far, I’m going off the 2012 election preferences. The first two columns in the above table are raw representations of the primary votes, but the swing and two-party columns are based on booth-matched results.

6.48pm. The Humpybong booth is first out of the blocks, and it shows a Labor swing 12.7%, enough to overturn the overall 10.1% by a small margin. This was Labor’s best booth in 2012, or its least bad — the LNP margin was 57-43.

6pm. Polls have now closed, as ReachTEL reports an exit poll shows Labor headed for a comfortable victory. Stay tuned for coverage of results as they emerge, which should start to happen in three-quarters of an hour or so.

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158 comments

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Ross
Guest
I really can’t see Anna… etc. having any realistic chance of winning in 2015. She is too wooden in her media appearances and is as bereft of charisma as Short-arse. She also has an impossible task to achieve in one fell swoop, but I do expect her to do rather well. The future lies with Jackie Trad, who appeals on several counts. She’s bright, a good looker, a convincing media performer and her newness means she has no direct association with the other Anna and the ancien regime…. and her name rolls easily off the tongue. Unlike Julia, I hope… Read more »
C@tmomma
Guest

I like Curtis Pitt a lot. He should be Queensland’s next Treasurer. Anastasia should stay where she is to break the Liberal line that Labor only install women into leadership positions, at a State level especially, as caretaker leaders until a better bloke comes along.

lefty e
Guest

Sample size is the problem there tho Psephos :p

Psephos
Guest

Queensland Labor will now have a Caucus of five women and three men, or 62.5% women. That is surely a record for one of the major parties. Curiously, all five women hold Brisbane seats and all three men hold regional seats.

muttleymcgee
Guest

“You mean Labor win in a by-election, with an unpopular Premier in a seat which they had a 12% margin in (56-44) before the last election?”

Newman first, Abbott next.

And Rudd has gone to Harvard – not quite far enough away, but it will do.

lefty e
Guest

Swings like that would see him out on his ear after one term, despite his uber majority.

lefty e
Guest

Thats a massive swing against the little dictator.

spur212
Guest
Miranda Underlying discontent with the O’Farrell government which can’t be exploited statewide because Robertson has no moral authority with the community. If the ALP change leaders in the state, then you’ll have a genuine contest. Redcliffe Seems to be a convergence of cuts to public services (especially health) and bikies laws. On top of that (from what I see as an outsider) Newman’s leadership personally seems to be heading in the same direction as Gillard’s. It’s like he can’t say anything that doesn’t have a negative prism put around it. For example today, he tried to do a photo op… Read more »
Centre
Guest

Good to see such a large swing against Newman.

Yet another swing away from the Greens. Have the Greens here tried to spin it or have they stayed silent?

Peak Puny 😎

frednk
Guest

[
Psephos
Posted Saturday, February 22, 2014 at 11:03 pm | Permalink

* We’ll never know how well PUP or a good independent would have done.
]
Looks to me like a shift against greens and family first but that could be because of a field of independents to chose from. Looks like a pretty determined effort to get some balance in the state parliament to me.

frednk
Guest

[
How much of the swing is due to LNP voters staying at home?
]
Irrelevant question. Didn’t want to vote for the guy willing to pay the fine, still a Liberal Vote lost.

Psephos
Guest

I think that was accurate information at the time.
* The voters have got a good deal more pissed off at Newman since November, mainly because of the bikie laws, it seems.
* My informant was a former D’Ath staffer and at that time D’Ath was saying she was not a candidate.
* The party did indeed twist her arm, because they had no-one local with any standing.
* We’ll never know how well PUP or a good independent would have done.

frednk
Guest

Psephos needs to do something about his informants.
[
Psephos
Posted Wednesday, November 20, 2013 at 1:03 pm | Permalink

My local informant tells me:

* Voters are pissed off with Newman but not ready to return to Labor.
* Labor does not in any case have a decent local candidate.
* Yvette d’Ath is not interested, but might change her mind if the party twists her arm.
* A good local PUP candidate or independent would win easily.
]

Utopia
Guest

Congratulations ALPollbludgeroonies.

ALP gets back to pre-2012 result and the LNP goes from having 11 seats for every ALP seat to now having <10. Quite an achievement in one night.

Sleep tight….

Psephos
Guest

Is that all the votes we’re getting tonight?

Dingbat The First
Guest

[Love supporting a bunch of guys with refugee blood on their hands,huh?

Who is that again? The ALP, LNP, or both?]

Both, but the current climate owes more to the LNP.

Psephos
Guest

[Pity, as a Labor man I would have thought you would at least provide tacit support for a guy who left school after Year 10 and pulled himself up by his bootstraps, despite whatever other fatal flaws he might have.]

I’m afraid I have to give more weight to his fatal flaws than to his bootstraps.

Dingbat The First
Guest

[Hoover up votes that aren’t going directly to the Liberal Party candidates on the ticket with candidates set up to funnel votes back to them]

Perhaps the Labor party could do the same thing. Nothing stopping them.

dave
Guest

Hi C@t

Great to see you back.

All the best.

Utopia
Guest

[C@tmomma
…..Love supporting a bunch of guys with refugee blood on their hands,huh?]

Who is that again? The ALP, LNP, or both?

ausdavo
Guest
Signing off now as working Sundays are mandated for me – $50 an hour for staff is not a possibility, so they don’t get any Sunday work. Good luck to those workers who can get it (mostly government employees) as it appears that the Big end of town has different pay rates for Sunday workers anyway and don’t have to pay double time. Only small businesses, so we either do the work ourselves or don’t open. Funny but my staff ask to do the work for normal pay as they’d rather have a day off during the week. However, I… Read more »
C@tmomma
Guest

Everything,
Typical Liberal apologist. Simply delusional and quick with the exculpatory excuse for your party when it suits. Love supporting a bunch of guys with refugee blood on their hands,huh?

C@tmomma
Guest

Psephos,
‘And Palaszczuk has much more credibility than Robbo.’
She’s come out publicly in favour of Same Sex Marriage has she?
Pity, as a Labor man I would have thought you would at least provide tacit support for a guy who left school after Year 10 and pulled himself up by his bootstraps, despite whatever other fatal flaws he might have.

Which isn’t to say that I don’t admire Palaszczuk. One gutsy, classy Labor woman leader. I like her dad too.

Utopia
Guest

[ausdavo
…..swing against LNP pretty huge 14.02%
to ALP 12.40%

More like good to me but you can bask in your delusion.]

I didn’t say it wasn’t good, I just said “meh” (i.e. about what you would expect).

Just remember ALP 43% is the same as the ALP vote in 2009 (43%)
LNP 35% is higher than the LNP vote in 2009 (34%)

So we have reverted to the seat before the last election

mikehilliard
Guest

C@t

Newman is a military type I understand which may have something to do with his delivery, by this I mean boot camp politics.

Apparently his nickname prior to Can-do was Noddy.

[Campbell Newman’s detractors call him that for his perceived resemblance to the Enid Blyton character as well as his misadventures, such as an expedition he led across the Tanami Desert, in northern Australia, in which his party had no fewer than 199 flat tyres]

I don’t get either comparisons.

ausdavo
Guest

Yes Psephos and it’s also the Israeli state committing crimes against 5 year old children, women and babies.

I abhor “the bloodthirsty crazies” that exist on both sides – not just on one side!

kevjohnno
Guest
Antony Green comments on turnout: “First preferences for the additional pre-poll votes have come in. Turnout up to 73.5%, which will mean eventual turnout of around 85%.” Considering the turnout in the general election was 91.11% this seem pretty good for a by-election. I don’t think we can put too much of the swing down to Liberal voters staying home Psephos. I agree with you about not reading too much into the result though. factoring in the Driscoll factor & the normal by-election kick at the government, Labor still has a lot of work to do to get back to… Read more »
Psephos
Guest

[Barry O’Farrell does his politics with much more finesse than Newman.]

Yes that’s true. And Palaszczuk has much more credibility than Robbo.

ausdavo
Guest
Firstly, in Queensland there is little or no stink attached to the few remaining ALP MP’s. NSW is different with MP’s there still carrying a bit of the past. Secondly, O’Farrell appears not to have moved with such little regard for the public as Newman has. Naturally O’Farrell and the LNP are holding up well. It may well be that the LNP are in for a real shock this time next year and we may end up without a majority party. The ALP, Palmer Party and Katter could all slice the LNP in different regions and with the benefit of… Read more »
Psephos
Guest

[Here’s an atrocity from Palestine just to provide balance. ]

Yes, that is a good story. I don’t dispute for a second that ordinary Palestinians are much nicer people than the bloodthirsty crazies who lead them. But the difference between the two stories is that in the first one it’s the Israeli state providing medical assistance to wounded Syrians, not an isolated individual.

C@tmomma
Guest

mikehilliard,
Barry O’Farrell does his politics with much more finesse than Newman.

dave
Guest

Luckydave@124

This is buyer’s remorse.

Still days late and dollars short.

The angry ant, is still boss cocky.

But good to see the ‘Petrie Dish’ voted back in 🙂

C@tmomma
Guest

ausdavo,
Yeah, it’s the Local Council strategy writ large. Hoover up votes that aren’t going directly to the Liberal Party candidates on the ticket with candidates set up to funnel votes back to them.

mikehilliard
Guest

I don’t think O’Farrell & Newman are a fair comparison on the basis that the NSW LNP could be considered more center populist (eg. their support for Gonski) whilst Queensland LNP appear to be totally out of control right wingers.

Luckydave
Guest

This is buyer’s remorse.

ausdavo
Guest
Psephos
Guest

[A loss of such proportions makes it very clear that Newman not only lacks a mandate for the future. It is a ringing dis-endorsement of ALL that he has done to Qld so far.]

By-elections are hard to interpret. Labor got an even bigger swing at Miranda, yet O’Farrell is still miles ahead in the statewide polls and no-one thinks NSW Labor is even close to recovery. It’s certainly a very good result, but I’d be careful reading too much into it.

victoria
Guest

c@tmomma

Labor obviously have to counteract this practice themselves. In any case, hopefully the Libs will be on the nose by the time of fhe next election

Rod Hagen
Guest

A loss of such proportions makes it very clear that Newman not only lacks a mandate for the future. It is a ringing dis-endorsement of ALL that he has done to Qld so far.

ausdavo
Guest

C@tmomma

You’re quite right about the proliferation of a group of different high profile people standing as independents to funnel preferences back to them.

The Senate of course, is one of their big goes and has lead to some ridiculous results as we all know.

Psephos
Guest
kevjohnno
Guest

Ausdavo
Yes, similar to Griffith.

ausdavo
Guest

Thanks deblonay at 96.

I was certainly aware of his failure to answer and saw your post straight after his and simply added weight to a most reasonable request. Will say no more until he denigrates reasonable PBer’s again.

C@tmomma
Guest

‘won’,’one’, same difference. 😉

C@tmomma
Guest
vic, Yeah, Libs targeted our Deb full on up here last election. They knew she was a popular Labor MP and they threw everything they had at her. And their rich mates with their popular local sporting identity candidates in covertly-affiliated front parties. Deb still one on Primary Votes but the preferences from the Affiliated Stooge Party candidate sunk her. I hear they are thinking about trying it on again in the next NSW State election, in order to try and funnel votes back to the Liberals from disaffected voters. Both within and without the Liberal Party it appears to… Read more »
ausdavo
Guest

Kevjohnno

It appears the postals etc are up on last election:
Total votes 28,414
Booth votes 20,467
Post/Pre 5,973
Absent 1,728
A few others 246

There should be no Absent this time so they may have caused the others to rise (of course they are not necessarily the same voters this time).

ausdavo
Guest
everything how about last election this election LNP 49.24% 35.22% ALP 30.76% 43.16% anti bikie laws 0.00% 10.60% swing against LNP pretty huge 14.02% to ALP 12.40% More like good to me but you can bask in your delusion.
C@tmomma
Guest

confessions,
Only started blogging again recently. Felt pretty raw after being stiffed by the Tragic ones. Was over it but Migs extended a helping hand and a warm welcome. So started blogging under my original nom, ‘Hillbilly Skeleton’.

victoria
Guest

c@t

Hmmm interesting. I hope the fibs get some blowback. They have it coming

Arrnea Stormbringer
Guest

@ ruawake 106

In Queensland? I remember a bigger swing in Miranda, NSW just last year.

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