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Federal Politics 2013-

Feb 24, 2014

Newspoll: 54-46 to Labor

As other pollsters find support for Labor trending downwards, Newspoll breaks ranks with the Abbott government's worst poll result since it came to power.

The second Newspoll of the year is a wildly off-trend result that has no doubt made life difficult for a) whoever has been charged with writing up the results for The Australian, and b) anti-Murdoch conspiracy theorists. The poll has Labor leading 54-46, up from 51-49, which is the Coalition’s worst result from any poll since the election of the Abbott government. The primary votes are 39% for the Coalition (down two), 39% for Labor (up four) and 10% for the Greens (down two). Despite that, the personal ratings find Bill Shorten continuing to go backwards, his approval steady at 35% and disapproval up four to 39%. However, things are a good deal worse for Tony Abbott, who is down four to 36% and up seven to 52%. Abbott’s lead on preferred prime minister shrinks from 41-33 to 38-37.

Elsewhere in polldom:

Roy Morgan is more in line with the recent trend in having the Coalition up half a point on the primary vote to 41%, Labor down 1.5% to 35.5%, the Greens steady on 10.5%, and the Palmer United Party steady on 4.5%. Labor leads by 50.5-49.5 on both two-party preferred measures, compared with 52-48 on last fortnight’s respondent-allocated result and 51-49 on previous election preferences. The Morgan release also provides state breakdowns on two party preferred, showing the Coalition leading 52.5-47.5 in New South Wales and 55-45 in Western Australia, while Labor leads 54.5-45.5 in Victoria, 52-48 in Queensland, 53.5-46.5 in South Australia and 50.5-49.5 in Tasmania.

• The Australian National University has released results from its regular in-depth post-election Australian Election Study mailout survey, the most widely noted finding of which is that Tony Abbott scored the lowest rating of any election-winner going back to 1987. The survey asks respondents to rate leaders on a scale from zero to ten, with Abbott scoring a mean of 4.29 compared with 4.89 for Julia Gillard in 2010; 6.31 for Kevin Rudd in 2007; 5.73, 5.31, 5.56 and 5.71 for John Howard in 1996, 1998, 2001 and 2004 respectively; 4.74 for Paul Keating in 1993; and 6.22 and 5.46 for Bob Hawke in 1987 and 1990 respectively.

The Age reports that a poll of 1000 respondents by UMR Research, commissioned by the Australian Education Union, finds Malcolm Turnbull (a net rating of plus 12%) and Joe Hockey (plus 2%) to be rated more favourably than Tony Abbott (minus 8%).

UPDATE (Essential Research): The weekly Essential Research has Labor’s lead steady at 51-49, with the Coalition up a point on the primary vote to 42%, Labor down one to 39% and the Greens up one to 9%. Also featured: “government handling of issues”, showing neutral net ratings for the government’s best areas (economic management, asylum seekers, foreign relations) and strongly negative ones for welfare, service provision and industrial relations. Worst of the lost is “supporting Australian jobs”, at minus 19%. The existing renewable energy target is broadly supported (39% about right, 25% too low, 13% too high); opinion of Qantas has deteriorated over the past year (11% say they have come to feel more positive, 25% more negative), and there is support for the government buying a share of it or guaranteeing its loans; and opinion on government moves to crack down on illegal file sharing is evenly divided.

UPDATE 2: The West Australian reports that a Patterson Market Research survey conducted before last week’s High Court ruling from an undisclosed sample size suggests the micro-party vote would wither if a fresh Senate election was held. The poll has the Liberals on 45%, up six on its Senate vote at the election, Labor on 32%, up five, and the Greens on 12%, up three. The Palmer United Party collapses from 5% to 1%, with all others halving from 20% to 10%. However, one wonders how good polls are at capturing the sentiment that causes indifferent voters to plump for micro-parties at the last minute.

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BK
Guest

Section 2 . . .

I wonder if there has been any research on what motivates this use of steroids.
http://www.smh.com.au/national/young-men-dying-from-heart-disease-linked-to-steroid-use-20140226-33ije.html
Michael Gordon’s editorial reckons that yesterday may have been a turning point for Shorten.
http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-opinion/coalition-stumbles-on-high-moral-ground-20140226-33ihq.html
And The Guardian writes it up well, too.
http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/feb/26/shorten-accuses-faux-patriotism-campbell-cover-up-
Kristina Keneally says good riddance to George Pell.
http://www.smh.com.au/comment/george-pell–the-view-from-the-pew-20140226-33h07.html
Alan Moir on how Qantas may cut costs further.
comment image
Cathy Wilcox welcomes Pell to the Vatican.
http://www.smh.com.au/photogallery/federal-politics/cartoons/cathy-wilcox-20090909-fhd6.html
David Rowe has the toy soldier as a political football.
http://www.afr.com/p/national/cartoon_gallery_david_rowe_1g8WHy9urgOIQrWQ0IrkdO
A very clever one from Pat Campbell on Qantas “baggage” handling.
http://www.smh.com.au/photogallery/federal-politics/cartoons/pat-campbell-20120213-1t21q.html
And Ron Tandberg has his say on the potential Qantas ownership change.
http://www.smh.com.au/photogallery/federal-politics/cartoons/ron-tandberg-20090910-fixc.html

BK
Guest

Good morning Dawn Patrollers.
MUST READ! Tara Moss exposes what went on inside Manus.
http://taramoss.com/manus-island-insiders-report/
Mark Kenny – Fiona Nash is in a mess.
http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-opinion/fiona-nash-has-been-poor-the-pm-must-be-worried-20140226-33il1.html
Oh dear! Now some evidence of Furnival’s direct role in the deals with Cadburys.
http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/tony-abbott-and-axed-man-at-cadbury-photo-op-20140226-33inb.html
And yet another dock-up by Nash.
http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/fiona-nash-admits-resource-library-wasnt-duplicated-20140227-33iu2.html
A good Peter Fitzsimons contribution on the toll often taken on high profile sports stars.
http://www.smh.com.au/sport/swimming/grant-hackett-the-latest-swimmer-to-fall-victim-to-the-sports-relentless-demands-20140226-33i6s.html
If this is not a disgrace then nothing is!
http://www.smh.com.au/business/financial-planners-free-to-flout-advice-rules-due-for-repeal-20140226-33ige.html
Some intra-government introspection on the proposed legislation for drunken assaults.
http://www.smh.com.au/nsw/liberal-mp-peter-phelps-says-harsher-drink-laws-no-deterrent-for-steroidmunching-types-20140226-33ia1.html
If you don’t want to get angry don’t read these.
http://www.smh.com.au/national/royal-commission-tears-as-woman-tells-of-abuse-in-parramatta-girls–dungeon-20140226-33h5n.html
http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/feb/26/royal-commission-abuse-nsw-government-girls-homes
Virgin accuses the government of “picking winners”.
http://www.theguardian.com/business/2014/feb/26/virgin-qantas-debt-guarantee-worth-100m

Otiose
Guest

UPDATE: 06:19:00 27/02/2014 —- Nett_NEWS++™ @ http://bit.ly/1aQcqOy #auspol http://bit.ly/1hTGcKz

Bushfire Bill
Guest

MEMO

From: Kristina Kennealy
To: Cardinal George Pell.
Subject: Your new job

——————————–
G.,

DON’T LET THE DOOR HIT YOU IN THE ARSE ON THE WAY OUT.

Rgds.,

K.

http://www.smh.com.au/comment/george-pell–the-view-from-the-pew-20140226-33h07.html

B.C.
Guest
Psephos Posted Thursday, February 27, 2014 at 12:46 am @ 1792 I didn’t say I believed it. I reported that it is being said. I report, you decide. It sounds like crap, or a malicous rumour designed to denigrate asylum seekers and their supports. We know that Mr Berati died from head injuries – the PNG Police have stated that in their report. We know that a large number of other people sustained injuries, including head injuries – this has been stated by the Australian Government as well as asylum seeker supporters. We have had a large number of reports,… Read more »
imacca
Guest

[Should I get Pirelli tyres for my car?]

Only if they come with a calendar. 🙂

Seriously, i had Pirelli Dakar’s on an old Landcuiser PC years ago. They were total crap off road. Mate at work had Pirelli Scorpions on his Landcruiser Wagon. They worked a lot better, but were quite soft, wore out quickly and had issues with punctures.

zoidlord
Guest

Another study for bonus wind farms that liberals won’t like:
http://news.stanford.edu/news/2014/february/hurricane-winds-turbine-022614.html

“”We found that when wind turbines are present, they slow down the outer rotation winds of a hurricane,” Jacobson said. “This feeds back to decrease wave height, which reduces movement of air toward the center of the hurricane, increasing the central pressure, which in turn slows the winds of the entire hurricane and dissipates it faster.””

swamprat
Guest

haha 🙂

why waste time on this infertile Psephotic subject

absolutetwaddle
Guest

swamprat

“My assessment is that he is the bumbling “Get Smart” of the Israeli Secret Police.”

Sorry, deblonay has already bestowed me with that title.

crikey whitey
Guest

Should I get Pirelli tyres for my car?

crikey whitey
Guest

Add an ‘o’

crikey whitey
Guest

Swamprat.

I read your earlier stuff on Psephos.

He has gone to far!

Cover is blown!

swamprat
Guest

Fulvio

[My assessment of Psephos is that he’s a convert to hard right Labor from student style leftism, and like most converts he’s a zealot in professing his relatively new assessment of old principles.]

Maybe.

My assessment is that he is the bumbling “Get Smart” of the Israeli Secret Police. 🙂

Being pretend “Labour” is part of his cover.

crikey whitey
Guest
Referring to my discussion of candidates. My Mod Lib friend and I agree that none of the candidates have anything to offer in terms of life experience or even qualifications. I took the trouble the other day to phone the office of Sharman Stone. Offering my congratulations on a fight well fought. I firmly believe in community and livelihoods etc. Identified myself as a Labor voter and a South Australian. Sympathetic to local eg Spring Gully etc. I looked at Sharman Stone’s qualifications and experience while I was about it. Excellent. Unlike these wannabees I guess. I still lament the… Read more »
absolutetwaddle
Guest

Well Psephos, at best you’ll get a big, fat “told ya so” opportunity (as the late Christopher Hitchens said, one of life’s greatest pleasures) in the remote possibility that rumour turns out to be correct. Otherwise you’ll get the usual suspects jumping all over you should any other scenario be proven, which appears highly likely.

On balance perhaps it would have been best to keep that one to yourself. 😉

deblonay
Guest

Psephos has great difficulty…despite his scholarship..in accepting criticism of his right-wing labor views or of his passionate support for Israel

I was described once as an idiot for a post I made re Israel…,and I haven’t yet forgotten or forgiven that slur

I have had many criticism in life but no one has even called me an idiot

deblonay
Guest

The Domus Australia…in Rome…

http://www.domusaustralia.org/

crikey whitey
Guest

A veil, Mexicanbeemer.

Fulvio. I do like you.

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