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Federal Politics 2013-

Feb 27, 2014

BludgerTrack: 50.7-49.3 to Labor

After wildly divergent results from Nielsen and Newspoll, it's far from clear which of the two was the rogue, or if both were. For the time being, the BludgerTrack poll aggregate splits the difference.

The enterprise of poll aggregation has been thrown into a spin after one major pollster, Nielsen, reported a 53-47 lead to the Coalition last week, and another, Newspoll, reported a 54-46 lead to Labor this week – leaving a 1% gap between the outer edges of the two error margins (UPDATE: Nielsen was actually 52-48, so scratch that about the gap between the error margins). BludgerTrack plots a course through the middle, with some residual influence of scattered results from Morgan and Essential, to give Labor a 50.7-49.3 lead after a dead heat last week. However, that only converts to a two-seat Labor gain on the seat projection, with one seat added from the New South Wales tally and another from Queensland, leaving the Coalition one seat shy of an absolute majority. Labor’s primary vote gain comes mostly at the expense of the Greens, who lose a bit of air after inflating over previous weeks, while the Palmer United Party maintains a slow downward trajectory to record its weakest result since the election.

The dire result for the Coalition from Newspoll was reflected in the leadership ratings, which have caused Tony Abbott’s trend on net satisfaction to point downwards again after levelling off in the early new year period. The trendlines on preferred prime minister had likewise flattened out over the past month or two, with Tony Abbott record a lead of slightly below double figures, but it now looks to be narrowing again, at least for the time being. The one constant is Bill Shorten’s net satisfaction, the only measure in the Newspoll numbers that is not off trend. Shorten is accordingly down to a new low, as he has been with every update so far this year. He has, however, been spared the ignominy of crossing paths with Abbott, which he came within 0.3% of doing last week.

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3632 comments

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Strong UnionsStrongCountry
Guest
Strong UnionsStrongCountry

deVilliers will end up with a world record if he gets to 50 runs.

Slowest 50 ever scored…

Steve Clements
Guest

AAchemed @ 3567

The reason that the average age of WWII veterans being higher is most likely due to the number of WW1 veterans signing up again, although many were late 30s/early 40s.

I know this from reading archives at a Defence Force Museum I used to work for. Unbelievable that men would sign up a second time.

Boerwar
Guest

What a hoot:

Brandis scrambling following the AFP imbroglio after Stokes spat the dummy, Famille Corby maintaining their rage against reality, and Ch 7 management waxing indignant at the AFP, and really, truly, Ch 7 is not doing anything wRONg with the classless clueless criminelle du jour according to the public lack of interest test.

Aussie lemmings in a mass shark jumping incident?

Meanwhile, back on your actual planet, the Indonesians are feeling a tad inclined to wacking the peccant pot miscreant back in the slammer for trampling all over Indonesian sensibilities.

zoomster
Guest

fess

following on from your comments last night about moderate Liberals (real ones)…

I have a very dear friend who is a genuine moderate Liberal (I’m told, btw, that they’re a different breed in Victoria..). She’s always been very supportive of me – with the caveat – “Can’t vote for you, darling, I’m a Lib.”

Saddened me greatly to hear her pleading on the radio before the last election for people to bear in mind the plight of AS when they voted — “I already know who I’m voting for” she added.

She was trying to persuade others to vote against the Libs while she voted for them.

deblonay
Guest

Where is Edwina SJ tonight
Has he/sheleft for the Ukraine to fight for it’s fascist government ..see post 3627

we should have given him(or her ???) a send-off

and where is Psephos… has he gone too

how can we cope without his stern supervision of we wayward old lefties???

deblonay
Guest

Alarming role of neo-nazi and fascists groups in the new Govt of Ukraine
_____________________________
A US Prof Chussudovsky looks in Global Report at the many ministers in the new Urkairian Govt who come from a number of fascist right wing parties in the Right-Tendency..a coalition of such groups and the way that this has not been much commented on in the western media

Why …one might ask
There is much admiration by some Ministers for the late Stephan Bandera, executed in 1945 by the Russians for leading a Ukrainian fascist group who fought against the Russian under Nazi control and foughtwith the Nazis to the bitter end

An aklarming article from a US site

http://niqnaq.wordpress.com/2014/03/03/i-am-going-to-add-the-positively-worst-photos-of-the-neo-n

mexicanbeemer
Guest

Another example Immigration, just how many visas do we need, a person is either here to live, holiday or study usually with hope of living.

mexicanbeemer
Guest

Planning is an area where over-regulation has taken hold, we need clear and concise direction on where development can take place and what is too be protected, we need a balance between protecting heritage and encouraging greater use of urban space.

We don’t have a shortage of land for both development and open space but too often the policies make a detailed law then once some public disquiet occurs the plan gets dumped.

The Camberwell Railway Station is a good example, under the Melbourne 2030 planning rules the project should have proceeded but a certain Mr Rush and friends complained loudly and the plan was sunk.

mexicanbeemer
Guest

Socrates

I would argue that some of those regulations are needed for community benefit such as restriction on drugs made in third party countries.

The third world has shown that with clothing the quality isn’t always as good therefore i couldn’t expect them to manufacture important drugs.

Many of the other regulations mentioned such as the cross media laws have prevented Murdoch from a complete media take-over.

The restrictions on who can sell electricity has proven to be an underlining cause of ever increasing power prices and it is becoming clearer as time goes on that power privatsation hasn’t delivered lower costs for the community.

kezza2
Guest

Oh, and another thing.

Germaine Greer said Mike Willesee was the best thing since sliced bread, in terms of sexual prowess, way back when.

I doubt Schappelle Corby thinks the same. Especially since he betrayed her by giving a report that could see her end up back in jail.

Don’t ya hate the meeja sometimes.

deblonay
Guest

JACK MATLOCL REPORTS blog ,,,,
A former US ambassador to The USSR has a fairly balanced viiew of the crsis in the Ukraine and sees that there is little the USA and the EU can do,given the fragile nature of the Ukraine…which he says is a state,but not really a nation

http://jackmatlock.com/2014/03/ukraine-the-price-of-internal-division/

Socrates
Guest

FarQU
[Regulation is the same as flexibility. The only regulations the corporate world cares about are those that harm them. ]
Agreed. The corporate world is also remarkably silent on the regulations that create wealth for them, especially those that restrict competition and cause monopolies.

You will not hear many corporate whinges against the following regs:
– restrictive importing laws on everything from NZ apples to drugs made in third party countries. We pay a lot for stuff that can only be distributed by sole suppliers here.
– intellectual property laws for old books and music where copyright should have run out years ago
– superannuation rules that force billions a year to be channelled into listed super funds, whether they perform or not. Without those rules the financial scammer industry would not exist.
– land zoning rules that allow wealthy land holders to gain from under supply e.g. Residential land
– fuel subsidies for farmers and miners
– rules restricting who can broadcast television or radio, sell electricity, mine land etc.

Try to eliminate any of these regs and see the corporate fury.

deblonay
Guest

3563 ABSOLUTE TWADDLE
____________RE LIBYA

WHETHER ALL LIBYANS HATED GADAFFI IS A MATTER WE HAVE NO WAY OF KNOWING CERTAINLY A GREAT MANY FOUGHT FOR HIM AND MANY FOUGHT AGAINST HIM

THE BATTLE WAS WON BY THE INTERVENTION OF US AND NATO FORCES

MY POINT IN RE THE POSTING WAS THAT LIBYA IS NOW TORN APART BY ENDLESS INTERNAL ARMED GROUPS AND MUCH FIGHTING,AND TODAY’ STORMING OF THE PARLIAMENT IN TRIPOLI IS THE FINAL STRAW
THE LIBYAN GOVT DOES NOT NOW EVEN CONTROL THE STREETS OF TRIPOLI
LIBYA IS A NEW SOMALIA…EXACATLY WHAT GADDAFI’
S SUPPORTER SAID WOULD HAPPEN..AND A FLOOD OF BLACK AFRICANS
NOW STREAM ACROSS TO ITALY BY BOAT..11OO IN ONE DAY LAST WEEK

Dingbat The First
Guest

[Q&A gave a good example of a business]

Did they give any examples of regulations that favour business and that business has never once called for repeal?

I’m guessing no.

Sustainable future
Guest

zoo

[Floods to increase ‘four fold’ in England by 2050:
http://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-26382128 ]

you’re being alarmist :). the CDL (climate denying loons) are claiming the UK floods are all because the evil greens/UN/One world government stopped dredging of channels and rivers. NOTHING to do with record dumping of rain. so it’s all fine – nothing to see here.

have you noticed that the Libs have started doing this thing where they start off saying “We accept the science of climate science and are committed to action,..” before then casting doubt on that science or the need to heed that science? e.g WTTE of “We accept the science of climate change and are committed to action, but think that one in 100 year weather events occurring every 2-5 years, bushfires in october, record droughts in non-El Nino years, and new heat records each consecutive year are part of the natural cycle and we cannot be sure to what extent it is due to human activity, despite the clear scientific evidence that it is” (Ok, I paraphrased a bit too much at the end). Even the minister for rhyming slang Greg Hunt is doing it now. It is akin to people saying “With all due respect..” before being really offensive http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Af-Id_fuXFA (it’s in the Geneva convention!)

zoidlord
Guest

@MB/3613

Yes, but do you think this government is able to do such a thing?

With this government, the Liberals want a universal payment system instead of having DSP, so they can cut payments and so called save money.

Steve777
Guest

Corporations want to be liberated from regulations about pesky things like employee rights, the environment, consumer protection, payment of tax, transparancy and OH&S. On the other hand, regulations that allocate them rents, protect them from ‘unfair’ competion or bail them out when they fail are OK.

victoria
Guest

Confessions

There is no way Abbott will entertain the thought of a DD with the current polling numbers

mexicanbeemer
Guest

Zoidy

Q&A gave a good example of a business taking two years to be able to build a factory when elsewhere it was up and running ion a much quicker time.

You yourself have often complained about the hoops people on DSP have too though to satisfy regulation.

There are hundreds of laws which could be trimmed, not just the side of acts but the overlap between the State and Federal governments.

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