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Newspoll: 54-46 to Liberal in South Australia

Two weeks out from polling day, Newspoll provides further evidence that the South Australian Liberals are headed for a solid win. UPDATE: And now a Galaxy poll with a 50-50 result in the marginal seat of Colton ...

The Australian reports that a Newspoll survey of 1100 respondents is consistent with the tenor of other pre-election polling in giving the Liberals a decisive 54-46 lead on two-party preferred, from primary votes of 44% for the Liberals, 34% for Labor and 7% for the Greens. Personal ratings contain further ominous signs for Labor, with Steven Marshall effectively catching up with Jay Weatherill on the preferred premier measure (Weatherill leads, but only by 40-39), and Weatherill recording a negative net approval rating for the first time (43% approval and 44% disapproval). Marshall records 45% approval and 29% disapproval. The Australian also reports the poll shows most respondents saying there is no chance they will change their vote, and an overwhelming expectation that the Liberals will win.

In other news, this week also saw the closure of nominations and ballot paper draws. The Poll Bludger election guide has accordingly been updated with full candidate lists in ballot paper order. Upper house above-the-line preference tickets have also been lodged, and can be perused at the Electoral Commission website.

UPDATE: And now the Sunday Mail brings us a Galaxy automated phone poll of 495 respondents from the key western suburbs marginal of Colton which, somewhat encouragingly for Labor, has the result at 50-50. GhostWhoVotes has posted the paper’s graphic, which suggests Labor’s Paul Caica to be a popular local member:

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Independently Thinking
Guest
Independently Thinking

Don’t worry Dio, I have heard a whisper that the Libs will announce that they want to build a stadium in the city and Labor want to build a new hospital on the same site.
Hang on…

Diogenes
Guest

Just to show how bereft of ideas this campaign has been, Marshall’s policy for the day was reintroducing car registration stickers but it isn’t compulsory to use them.

Is this what we have come to?

Rational Leftist
Guest

[Sorry Carey about the Sportsbet quote – I had actually forgotten the real figure and seemed to recall it was higher than that. My bad.]

Not a prob. I was just joking around. Your point still stands as valid.

[And I will bet anyone a Crikey subscription that the ALP vote in Adelaide (the seat) will head south with O’Loughlin as their candidate. He is not liked by locals but the ALP seemed to be oblivious to this. He sure is.]

Really? I did not know this. I haven’t really played that close of attention to the seat and am basing my analysis on secondary accounts. If true about his unpopularity, I retract my statement about running him again.

Independently Thinking
Guest
Independently Thinking

Sorry Carey about the Sportsbet quote – I had actually forgotten the real figure and seemed to recall it was higher than that. My bad.

And I will bet anyone a Crikey subscription that the ALP vote in Adelaide (the seat) will head south with O’Loughlin as their candidate. He is not liked by locals but the ALP seemed to be oblivious to this. He sure is.

Wakefield
Guest

Brock in Frome was effectively an Independent Labor candidate. He has pretty consistently supported Labor Govt and likely to do so in future. Pegler and Such will support Libs esp if Libs get over 50% TPP. Likely Johanson to support Libs. So Libs need to win nett 4 seats. But if they only win nett 4 seats the bargaining for Speaker would be pretty exciting.

Edi_Mahin
Guest

Just received an information packet from ECSA including my EasyVote Card. Interesting that it says voting is compulsory yet I am in my 30s and have never voted and never been fined. There are legally recognized exceptions from voting that means voting is not compulsory, the statement voting is compulsory is not strictly accurate.

Rational Leftist
Guest

Having said that, if O’Loughlin doesn’t get up this time, he should definitely run again next time. On a better year for Labor, Sanderson is extremely vulnerable and DO is a good candidate.

Rational Leftist
Guest

[Any chance of Adelaide going back to Labor?]

Not if it’s around 55/54-46/45. The tide will be on Sanderson’s side. However, if the vote gets narrower, it’s possible the seat can buck the trend. I reckon you’d have to have the state vote fall to about 53-47 to the Libs, at worst (for Labor), to start thinking like that. Until then, she should be able to hold on (I notice on her material, she’s very much smothering herself with Marshall to try and turn the Adelaide race into a Weatherill v. Marshall one, rather than a Sanderson v. O’Loughlin one.)

Edi_Mahin
Guest

Any chance of Adelaide going back to Labor?
Is Sanderson seen as a good local member?

If so then losing Hartley, Bright and Ashford and winning Adelaide gets them to 24 although it seems extremely unlikely that would happen without the Liberals making some big errors.

Rational Leftist
Guest

Maybe the Liberals can announce that they’ll bring back the old bus ticket validators. People (who can’t be bothered with a metrocard) seem to still have trouble with the new ones.

Rational Leftist
Guest

[ALP something nearing $10.]

Well I suppose $5.75 is closer to $10 than it is to $0.

Nevertheless, I don’t think anybody but the blind Labor hacks think Labor have a chance now.

They’d pretty much have to limit the seat losses to 2 as it would be very hard to see them winning in a hung parliament. Such has already declared he will support the Libs if he has BoP, Pegler would be stupid not to (especially because he is in the fight of his life to retain that seat). Brock probably would support the Libs too (although there’s a small chance he’d support Labor.)

Johanson is playing the middle ground between the two parties but it would be very hard for him not to justify going with the Liberals. Hanna, if elected, is the only independent I see more likely supporting Labor.

So Labor need to keep their losses to two and maybe can afford to lose Mitchell and (possibly) Lee to independents.

Either way, it really is a case of fighting the tide, so I am with the chorus here in singing that they have no real chance of doing it.

Edi_Mahin
Guest

Judging by what happened to Lomax-Smith last time I am not sure the hospital really won them to many votes and electrifying the railways probably does not effect an enormous amount of the population so perhaps the rego discs is the real vote winner. Lots of people seemed to be annoyed at the loss of the rego disc.

Psephos
Guest

[Psephos: that’s exactly right and that’s what is so wrong with the current system…. Labor never should’ve won the last election and they certainly shouldn’t win this one.]

But you contradict yourself. If we have a system of single-member constituencies, then what counts is winning seats, not votes. In 2010 Labor won a majority of seats, because a majority of voters in each of those seats preferred the Labor candidate. If Labor can do the same thing again, they will win again, and will deserve to do so, regardless of the statewide vote.

sykesie
Guest

You beat me to it Toorak … is this what electioneering has come down to??

Toorak Toff
Guest

While Labor is building a state-of-the-art hospital and electrifying the railways, the Libs are promising to restore rego discs to cars.

Such vision!

Edi_Mahin
Guest

Elder is interesting to me in my limited knowledge about how elections go. Last election Pat Conlan along with a number of other high profile Labor MPs had large swings against them. It seems there could have been an anti-Conlan factor in the result. Normally I would think a incumbent gets a bonus but last time the incumbent may have cost Labor votes.
Does this mean Labor could gain some of those votes back and make it harder for Liberals to gain the seat than the 2% margin seems to indicate?
Also Labor are running a candidate who must have a reasonable profile give she has run in the last two federal elections which might also help Labor.
Are these reasons Labor might hold Elder against a general trend after from them?

Independently Thinking
Guest
Independently Thinking

Read Kevin Bonham’s blog on this then look at Sportsbet’s odds on the election – Libs at $1.12 to ALP something nearing $10.

Science + bookmakers = Correct answer

chinda63
Guest

Psephos: that’s exactly right and that’s what is so wrong with the current system.

I think it was a fluke it seemed to work out for the first election after it was introduced, but since then it’s been a serious clusterfuck, culminating in 2010.

Labor never should’ve won the last election and they certainly shouldn’t win this one.

But if this one is anything like the last then who knows? The poll in Colton leads me to believe this could be another election where the swings will be all over the place.

What is the point in the Libs getting a 10% swing in Bragg, Waite and Schubert if they get a -1% swing in Elder or Morialta or Bright?

I’m yet to be conviced this election still isn’t in the balance, especially after speaking with voters in Stuart and Florey.

It is, quite literally, all over the shop

Psephos
Guest

I remember saying that at the time it was introduced: if the SA Parliament wants proportional representation, they should legislate for it. A system based on single-member constituencies cannot be forced to produce proportional results, no matter how you rig it. What if Labor contested only 24 of the 47 seats and won all of them with 51%? It would then have won the election with only 26% of the vote, but that would be a perfectly fair result.

Edi_Mahin
Guest

Excellent as nearly always Kevin.

The fairness cause looks like a clear case of trying to the impossible. Local issues are always going to cause unpredictable variations in the amount of swing from seat to seat. Issues like that are going to effect things this time. Adelaide for example is probably going to swing less or even to Labor on the basis of what happened last time. Elder might be similarly effected.
And how are factors like independents like Hanna in Mitchell or Johanson in Lee supposed to be taken in account when it is not known if they are going to run or not.
I guess they could try and take into account someone like Such in Fischer as being a safe independent but what happens if he had decided not to run at the last minute.

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