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NSW Politics

Mar 1, 2014

Nielsen: 51-49 to Labor in NSW

Nielsen drops a bombshell with the first poll showing state Labor leading in New South Wales since Morris Iemma was Premier. UPDATE: However, the bi-monthly Newspoll turns in a very different result of 58-42 in favour of the Coalition.

You heard correct – the Sydney Morning Herald (I presume) has published a Nielsen poll of state voting intention in New South Wales which actually has Labor in front. This is, I am quite sure, the first poll to have Labor so placed in nearly six years. Labor’s lead of 51-49 comes from primary votes of 35% for Labor and 40% for the Coalition (UPDATE: And 12% for the Greens). These numbers courtesy of GhostWhoVotes; more no doubt to follow.

UPDATE: Despite all that, Barry O’Farrell maintains a healthy 50-30 lead over John Robertson as preferred premier, and has a positive net satisfaction rating (46% approve, 40% disapprove) while Robertson’s is negative (34% and 36%). The poll was conducted from Saturday to Wednesday from a sample of 1000.

UPDATE 2: Newspoll has different ideas, its bi-monthly reading for January-February producing a more normal looking result of 58-42 in favour of the Coalition. However, since this is derived from polling conducted over a two-month period, it can be surmised that this result fails to pick up backlash against the Coalition since the Independent Commission Against Corruption began investigating three Liberal MPs a fortnight ago, causing them to voluntarily withdraw from the party. The poll has the Coalition primary vote at 46% against 31% for Labor, with Barry O’Farrell holding a 49-19 lead over John Robertson as preferred premier.

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54 comments

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Leroy Lynch
Guest

Newspoll table

http://polling.newspoll.com.au.tmp.anchor.net.au/image_uploads/140206%20NSW%20Voting%20Intention%20&%20Leaders%20Ratings%20Jan%20-%20Feb.pdf

03/03/14:Bimonthly reading of New South Wales voting intention and leaders ratings

absolutetwaddle
Guest

“Out of power for a generation” doesn’t mean what it used to. Unless the press are referring to generations of fruit flies, of course.

Psephos
Guest

[The poll on which that result was based was taken only last week, while the Newspoll survey was conducted over January and last month and reflects the more consistent view of the electorate.]

“Their poll is new and ours is old, so that proves ours in more accurate.” Hello?

Utopia
Guest

OK….what kinda operation are you running here William?

First you are telling me its 51-49 to the ALP, then a few days later you are trying to tell me its 58-42 to the LNP.

Wassup? :devil:

Sustainable future
Guest

how can polls differ so widely. are they both rogues at the far ends of the spectrum/bell curve? Unfortunately, I think Newspoll is probably more correct. From Victoria at least, O’Farrell looks sane and moderate compared to other libs and the NSW ALP so tainted and up against a dominant far-right print and broadcast media to be unelectable for at least another 2 terms. Has anything happened in NSW (other than abbott) that would explain the Neilsen result? When the next polls correct this, expect the Neilsen to be reported as a great swing against the ALP and the Newspoll not reported as a swing to labor (“O’Farrell still dominant”, etc).

citizen
Guest

The Newspoll results issued today must have been taken from quite a small sample. In Jan-Feb there were only two Federal Newspolls (10/2 and 25/2).

http://www.newspoll.com.au/opinion-polls-2/opinion-polls-2/</a.

Leroy Lynch
Guest

http://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/ofarrell-steadies-support-after-summer-of-discontent/story-fn59niix-1226843142584#

[O’Farrell steadies support after summer of discontent
MARK COULTAN
The Australian
March 03, 2014 12:00AM

NSW’S opposition Labor Party has failed to dent the popularity of the state’s Coalition government, despite a summer dominated by controversy over alcohol-fuelled violence and the investigation of three Liberal MPs by the Independent Commission Against Corruption.

The latest Newspoll, conducted exclusively for The Australian, shows the Liberal-Nationals coalition remains in a dominant position, with a two-party-preferred vote of 58 per cent, largely unchanged from the previous poll, in September and October last year.

…………….

The results fly in the face of a poll published in the Fairfax press at the weekend, which had Labor ahead 51 per cent to 49 per cent in the two-party-preferred stakes, despite Labor registering only 35 per cent of the primary vote.

The poll on which that result was based was taken only last week, while the Newspoll survey was conducted over January and last month and reflects the more consistent view of the electorate.]

Nielsen was the weekend poll, this one is cumulative (State questions are asked each time they do a fed newspoll, then added up after a couple of months), which may explain as least some of the difference.

Leroy Lynch
Guest

http://www.smh.com.au/nsw/back-badgerys–or-lose-barry-ofarrell-told-20140301-33szn.html

[Back Badgerys – or lose, Barry O’Farrell told
March 2, 2014
Kirsty Needham
State Politics Editor

Premier Barry O’Farrell’s reluctance to back a second Sydney airport and refusal to commit a cent to airport infrastructure are out of step with strong voter support for construction to begin at Badgerys Creek.

Mr O’Farrell is being lobbied by his western Sydney MPs to get behind a second airport. The Liberal member for Mulgoa, Tanya Davies, met him last week to convey a message from her electorate that they want the airport built, and the rail and road upgrades it would bring.

”He needed to be made aware of the feedback I was getting,” said Mrs Davies, whose seat includes the Badgerys Creek site. ”They said two things: they were in support, or wanted to see the infrastructure delivered.”

This comes as an exclusive Fairfax-Nielsen poll shows 72 per cent of NSW voters want an airport at Badgerys Creek, while only 20 per cent oppose it. Support is even stronger among major party voters (74 per cent).
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The support is in stark contrast to a Newspoll taken 16 years ago that found 70 per cent of voters were either opposed or undecided.]

geoffrey
Guest

leftwingpinko
Posted Sunday, March 2, 2014 at 12:03 am | PERMALINK
“William may recall the details), which is pretty amazing considering how much the chattering classes go on about Murdoch”

Oh how you mock the “chattering classes”…

I wonder… who does the ALP and its associated hacks actually represent? Good luck to a major political party that wants to disown a large slab of its base.
—not a bad result for an unrepresentative pack of hacks … and tell, who does LP now represent. i prefer to be a critique of labor on association there is no opposition (to labor) and way abbott is going that could be any day or year now

leftwingpinko
Guest

“William may recall the details), which is pretty amazing considering how much the chattering classes go on about Murdoch”

Oh how you mock the “chattering classes”…

I wonder… who does the ALP and its associated hacks actually represent? Good luck to a major political party that wants to disown a large slab of its base.

Psephos
Guest

[The Mordoch press played a high stakes game last Federal election. Their overt and extraordinary coverage – especially the Sydney papers – has them pegged as propagandists by the majority of voters (including a large swath of people who voted LNP at that election). In my view it wasnt just a one trick hand, it has also weakened their influence. I think this poll partly reflects this.]

I think we greatly over-estimate how much the public knows or cares about media bias. I recall there was a poll in Sydney showing that a majority of voters didn’t know who owned the Telegraph (or something like that – William may recall the details), which is pretty amazing considering how much the chattering classes go on about Murdoch.

geoffrey
Guest

robertson out now … no bald union bully looking types

Arrnea Stormbringer
Guest

@ Psephos 13

If Labor retakes Wyong, Balmain and The Entrance (which I’ve already said is possible on the swing here), then the only independent seats left in play are Sydney (held by a very popular independent and protégé of the very popular Clover Moore), Lake Macquarie (I don’t think it’d go back to Labor – but I’m not sure how popular Piper is) and Terrigal (Labor’s support here is much too low to make it past the LNP who polled 61% of the first-preference vote last time).

Darn
Guest

Just tuning in and don’t know if anyone has mentioned the cricket yet. Does anyone have any confidence in Australia’s chances after the debacle last time?

dave
Guest

I like to think abbott helped these polls results in a significant way as well.

More abbott. Lots more!

outside left
Guest

Should be ‘Gareth’

outside left
Guest

Shellbell, here on the south coast, Glen Kolomeitz has been selected for Kiama, and in two weeeks Fiona Phillips will be selected for South Coast. Both are exceptional candidates and will either win or go very close. Young, talented, unaligned and no baggage. Garth and Shelley are worried!

Simon Katich
Guest

The Mordoch press played a high stakes game last Federal election. Their overt and extraordinary coverage – especially the Sydney papers – has them pegged as propagandists by the majority of voters (including a large swath of people who voted LNP at that election). In my view it wasnt just a one trick hand, it has also weakened their influence. I think this poll partly reflects this.

shellbell
Guest

amazing autocorrect to turn “additional seats” to “sits”

shellbell
Guest

William’s expectation gives ALP 15 + sits to win.

What an opportunity for bright talented diverse youth to flood in!

That would require a turning away of a recent preference for selection of 60 something men

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