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Victorian Politics

Mar 1, 2014

Nielsen: 53-47 to Labor in Victoria

The first Victorian state poll of an election year has the Labor opposition maintaining a modest but decisive lead. UPDATE: And now we have a Galaxy poll which puts Labor's lead at 51-49.

On top of the shock finding from New South Wales (see below), Nielsen also produces a good state voting intention result for Labor from Victoria, albeit a less surprising one. The poll gives Labor a two-party lead of 53-47, from primary votes of 41% for the Coalition, 37% for Labor and 13% for the Greens. Denis Napthine holds a 45-35 lead over Daniel Andrews as preferred premier. Leader satisfaction ratings still to come, maybe …

UPDATE: The Age report features leadership and further attitudinal results.

UPDATE 2: And now we have a Galaxy poll which has the Labor lead at 51-49, from primary votes of 39% for Labor, 37% for the Liberals and 5% for the Nationals, and 12% for the Greens. Denis Napthine leads Daniel Andrews as preferred premier by 40-32. The poll was conducted on Wednesday and Thursday from a sample of 1068.

UPDATE 3 (6/3): And now Newspoll’s turn: steady on the previous bi-monthly result at 53-47 to Labor, with primary votes of 38% for the Coalition (steady), 39% for Labor (up one) and 13% for the Greens (down one). Denis Napthine’s lead as preferred premier has narrowed from 41-27 to 39-28.

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53 comments

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Bugler
Guest

The problem with Andrews is I don’t know how safe he’ll be if/when Labor wins Government. The rift in the Right that enabled him to gain the leadership is now mended, and any excuse may be employed to topple him. That’s my fear, and I certainly hope Labor has learnt from recent experience elsewhere to know better. I, however, do see it as a possibility. Not that I see it affecting the election result.

Leroy Lynch
Guest
http://www.theage.com.au/victoria/voters-turn-on-coalition-over-hazelwood-mine-fire-poll-finds-20140308-34ed8.html [Voters turn on Coalition over Hazelwood mine fire, poll finds March 9, 2014 Tom Arup Environment editor, The Age The Napthine government faces a political backlash in the Latrobe Valley as a result of the Hazelwood mine fire, with almost 40 per cent of voters in the region saying they are now less likely to vote for the Coalition at this year’s state election, a new poll has found. In results that could have implications for the state seat of Morwell, held by the Nationals, the poll found that in the four major valley towns, Labor is easily leading… Read more »
Psephos
Guest

[its leader, Daniel Andrews, is yet to capture the imagination of voters as the November 29 election looms.]

Voters don’t want their imaginations captured, whatever that means. They want a government that is stable and competent and protects their jobs, and so far this government fails on all three. They will take Andrews on trust if he looks safe and competent.

Leroy Lynch
Guest
http://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/state-politics/voters-desert-coalition-in-droves-as-jobs-disappear/story-e6frgczx-1226846401850# [Voters desert Coalition in droves as jobs disappear JOHN FERGUSON The Australian March 06, 2014 12:00AM THE collapse of the car industry and widespread manufacturing job cuts have stifled the Victorian Coalition’s recovery, with voter support locked at the career-ending levels suffered by former premier Ted Baillieu. THE collapse of the car industry and widespread manufacturing job cuts have stifled the Victorian Coalition’s recovery, with voter support locked at the career-ending levels suffered by former premier Ted Baillieu. The latest Newspoll shows Victorian Labor retaining a six-point lead (53 per cent to 47 per cent), but its leader, Daniel… Read more »
Persia
Guest

William, I think your Update 2 should be about the Galaxy, rather than Newspoll, 51-49 to Labor?

Leroy Lynch
Guest

The full Galaxy Vic figures are on their site.

http://www.galaxyresearch.com.au/2627-feb-2014/

[26/27 Feb 2014
VICTORIA IN THE BALANCE

With an election due later in the year the state of Victoria is evenly poised. While Denis Napthine is seen as a better choice of Premier than Daniel Andrews, the Labor Party hold a narrow lead on a two party preferred basis.

………..

This survey was conducted by Galaxy Research on the evenings of 26-27 February 2014. The results are based on the opinions of 1,068 voters. The data has been weighted and projected to reflect the Victorian population.]

Leroy Lynch
Guest

Neither of the articles seem to give all the raw primary figures, and I can’t find anything else online. Maybe we have to check the hard copy of the Herald Sun to see a table?

Leroy Lynch
Guest
http://www.news.com.au/national/victoria/herald-sungalaxy-poll-reveals-airport-rail-link-our-top-priority/story-fnii5sms-1226843123689 [Herald Sun/Galaxy Poll reveals airport rail link our top priority March 02, 2014 11:13PM Michelle Ainsworth Herald Sun VICTORIANS want a rail line to the airport ahead of a new rail tunnel through inner ­Melbourne or the East West Link, a Herald Sun/Galaxy Poll has found. More than one-third of voters surveyed in the poll said a city to airport rail link should be a higher priority than other major infrastructure projects promised by the Government and State Opposition. …………… POLL RESULT: Which one of these projects do you think the state government should give the highest priority? Building… Read more »
Leroy Lynch
Guest
http://www.news.com.au/national/victoria/labor-moves-ahead-with-victorian-voters/story-fnii5sms-1226843045667 [Labor moves ahead with Victorian voters March 02, 2014 10:30PM JAMES CAMPBELL Herald Sun DENIS Napthine is yet to win over Victorians a year after replacing Ted Baillieu as premier, and a train to Melbourne Airport is voters’ top transport priority. Labor is up almost 3 per cent from the Liberal and National parties on primary vote since the 2010 state election and is now leading the Coalition 51 per cent to 49 per cent on a two-party preferred basis. If repeated at the next election, this would see Daniel Andrews replacing Dr Napthine as premier with a one-seat… Read more »
Tom the first and best
Guest
Tom the first and best
42 The real Truck Action Plan was/is (it is now back in favour with the ALP and never fell out of with many people in the West) for ramps starting at the west facing ramps of the Westgate Freeway at Williamstown Rd and then over Williamstown Rd and then down to Hyde St to allow a truck route to the port that does not go along Francis St. Westlink was to run from the Port of Melbourne, under the Maribyrong River, under Footscray and then above ground through the industrial areas of Brooklyn and Sunshine West to the Western Ring… Read more »
mexicanbeemer
Guest

Tom

I seem to recall that Westlink was the name used for the Track Action Plan and as you rightly indicate it went from the Western Ring Road to the Port.

E-W Link went under the Maribyrong River

Tom the first and best
Guest
Tom the first and best

40

You are confusing the Truck Action Plan (from an earlier ALP transport plan and not mentioned by the ALP in 2010) and its extra ramps to the existing Westgate with the proposed Westlink Tunnel from the Ring Road to the port.

mexicanbeemer
Guest

Tom

The E-W link project was in the Victorian Transport Plan.

The Westlink project was a difference project aimed at truck movements.

Tom the first and best
Guest
Tom the first and best

35

Yes there would be a payout, which I have mentioned above, however payouts do not require the unnecessary demolition of homes and businesses, the destruction of Royal Park, obstruction of Doncaster Rail, the encouraging of driving, etc. If they payout is to large then the state government can use its control over contract law to change the situation.

There are already connections between Citylink and the Western Ring Road. The Westgate, the Tullamarine and several arterial roads. Any claims for any need for such a road are just road lobby lies.

Tom the first and best
Guest
Tom the first and best

Only Westlink (from the Western Ring Road to the Port of Melbourne) was ALP policy in 2010.

Tom the first and best
Guest
Tom the first and best

36

If the Greens get the balance of power, then the Greens would be very unlikely to support any government that went ahead with the East-West link. If the contracts get signed before the election and the ALP say they will thus go ahead with the project, the Greens will use that to shift votes from the ALP to the Greens (especially in the inner-city).

mexicanbeemer
Guest

Tom

If the ALP government were to proceed with E-W Link the Greens would still overwhelmingly preference them.

In 2010 did the Greens preference the ALP, after all the E-W Link project was part of the Victorian Transport Plan.

mexicanbeemer
Guest

The Greens like to claim that they are intelligence yet they do seem to have missed a thing called contract law.

When a contract is signed if it isn’t honored then it will result in a major pay out.

As much as E-W Link is questionable particularly the part between the Eastern and Citylink, the second part has more merit and should be considered providing a link between the Western Ring Road and Citylink.

Tom the first and best
Guest
Tom the first and best
30 The Greens are against the East-West Link because it is bad policy. The current government has no mandate to sign the contracts because they took a pro-PT campaign and specifically said, when asked, that they had not plans for such a road. The Greens are not talking about just walking away from the contract, compensation would be involved. These things do happen from time to time. The then new NSW Coalition government did cancel a railway project in 1988. These thing do happen in a democracy and to say the government should never cancel a contract is wrong (unlike… Read more »
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