Menu lock

BludgerTrack: 52.2-47.8 to Labor

The latest poll aggregate puts Labor back in parliamentary majority territory, as a new result from ReachTEL makes the Coalition's strong result from Nielsen a fortnight ago look still more like an anomaly.

Following on from the thumping Labor lead in last week’s Newspoll, the addition of the latest ReachTEL to the BludgerTrack poll aggregate causes Labor to regain nearly all the ground it lost on the back of last fortnight’s Nielsen. However, with new contrary signals emerging through a shift back to the Coalition in Essential Research, it’s perhaps telling that the two-party trendline (displayed as always on the sidebar) looks as though it’s not sure which way to turn. Labor is now back into majority territory on the national seat projection, having picked up three seats each in New South Wales, Victoria and Queensland and a further one in the territories (i.e. Solomon). It’s interesting to note that the state breakdowns show emphatic swings to Labor except where they govern at state level, at least until next Saturday’s elections. On the primary vote, Labor makes a gain this week directly at the expense of the Coalition, while the Palmer United Party is up slightly on a post-election low last week. There is no new data for leadership ratings this week.

We recommend

From around the web

Powered by Taboola

3396 comments

Sort by:   newest | oldest | most voted
Otiose
Guest

→ → 11/03/2014 05:09:18 —- Nett_NEWS++™ @ http://bit.ly/1aQcqOy #auspol http://bit.ly/1qpOJpX

mexicanbeemer
Guest

Loos like Lisa Wilkinson has had one of those long days she will be pleased is over starting off with a large spider and finishing up with Brandis

Jimmyhaz
Guest

Honestly, the tax rate above a certain income should rise drastically.

At 100K 40% or whatever is fine, but people earning $20 mil a year barely feel it. Any income above a certain amount (perhaps divided into the percentiles, rather than a fixed amount, so the 1% pay 60%, 0.1% pay 90% etc) should be taxed away, as it serves no public good to allow its concentration.

Geoff
Guest

Geoff

[What news said that? and what laws were changed?

I saw it on ABC, i did not take much notice, normal LNP.

It was Sidonas from the LNP Government. He said that private companies did not like “red tape” and that requirement was to be removed as it was unnecessary and costly.]

No link? no youtube vid? of course you saw it on “ABC”
and of course you are lying.

Steve777
Guest

I always thought the 54-46 to Labor was a rogue. That would be a mark of a very unpopular Government. Abbott has his problems and in my opinion deserves to be regarded with disdain and contempt but that feeling is not prevalent broader community. I think Labor is on 51 or 52 which would drop by a couple of points if an election were actually called in the near future.

swamprat
Guest

[The “truth” might be 52-48 and all the polls are basically noise around truth.]

The real truth is the ALP is a failed party.

– It barely knows what it stands for, apart from being a soupy moderate right wing US bendover party

– It cannot compete in working class seats against barely literate real right wing idiots

– it does not know whether it represents Australia or the few unions that are attached to it; and

– IT REFUSES TO CHANGE.

Utopia
Guest

guytaur:

It is very simple…..I am always wRONg!

Any explanation which comes to that conclusion is therefore salient, and one can argue the opposite in a few days, or weeks, or months if needed, as long as one is arguing against me!

Good night all :devil:

Kevin Bonham
Guest

We now have Labor being declared to have lost support although the 54 was never real in the first place (and nor was the 48 from Nielsen). 51 is simply a more accurate reading. If Nielsen gets 51 those covering Nielsen will talk about how much Labor has gained.

My aggregate is 51.2 to Labor.

guytaur
Guest

E

Sounds reasonable to me as a layperson on tax. I will leave it up to tax experts here to point out where that impression is wrong.

Utopia
Guest

The “truth” might be 52-48 and all the polls are basically noise around truth.

zoidlord
Guest

@Confessions/3381

Or the good old bash on Welfare worked.

swamprat
Guest

Diogenes

[It’s the correction we had to have.]

Could someone explain to me what is a “correction”, and why do we have to have it, or not have it?

How can any poll be needing ‘correction?

Does that mean some polls are correct and other are not?

please explain?

Utopia
Guest

[guytaur
….Sorry. Yes you did say fair share of tax. You say floor tax. Is that a progressive or regressive tax?

A reminder GST is regressive and income tax as structured now is progressive.]

Progressive. Poor tax payers wouldn’t be affected at all, as they are usually on PAYE and don’t have many deductions. Rich tax payers would be hammered as they have expensive (tax deductible) Barristers/Accountants practically eliminating their taxable income. I would let them do that to their heart’s content, UP UNTIL x% (might be 15% or 25% who knows) after which the expensive Barristers/Accountants become worthless as you have to pay that rate of tax no matter what.

You would need certain exemptions for start up businesses etc, but it is definitely draftable.

Confessions
Guest

Yep, correction.

swamprat
Guest

Geoff

[What news said that? and what laws were changed?]

I saw it on ABC, i did not take much notice, normal LNP.

It was Sidonas from the LNP Government. He said that private companies did not like “red tape” and that requirement was to be removed as it was unnecessary and costly.

Diogenes
Guest

It’s the correction we had to have.

zoidlord
Guest

GhostWhoVotes ‏@GhostWhoVotes 2m

#Newspoll 2 Party Preferred: L/NP 49 (+3) ALP 51 (-3) #auspol

GhostWhoVotes ‏@GhostWhoVotes 1m

#Newspoll Primary Votes: L/NP 41 (+2) ALP 35 (-4) GRN 11 (+1) #auspol

Steve777
Guest

Re Swamprat @3367

I just find it extraordinary that the PM and Attorney General can publicly interfere in legal proceedings and in the case of Abbott try to heavy one side into settling, with from what I have seen almost no comment from the media. I am suggesting that the media have one rule for Right Wing governments and another for Labor. So, to answer your points:

1. Yes to the question and yes to the ALP’s trying to manipulate corrupted media for their own ends.
2. Unfortunately, Yes in many instances. The ALP has been completely crap at getting its message across in recent years.

guytaur
Guest

“@GhostWhoVotes: #Newspoll Primary Votes: L/NP 41 (+2) ALP 35 (-4) GRN 11 (+1) #auspol”

wpDiscuz